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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Well, I'm on record since several months ago saying that I think DS is done by the end of the year. I just don't need more than the 17 I already have. I'm comfortable with my stack of GE, but I would add to my 12 HH if I caught them in stock somewhere. I picked up four TB's from walmart.com during their $90 off random sale they had earlier this year. I would have bought more, but then they disappeared, and when they came back, they were MSRP again. I'm not certain enough that the set is EOL this year to buy more at MSRP right now.

I'm slowly buying a few other sets that don't seem to be on people's radar right now, but I was serious about what I said before; brickpickers can create their own short-term EOL effect with panic buying, and after watching TH earlier in the month, I don't want to inadvertently trigger something like that for a set I'm currently accumulating. If you go back far enough in the PS thread, I think you will find that I was the first to note that TH was limit 2 at LEGO Shop at Home. Then NMM posted that in the TH thread, a couple weeks later it went out of stock somewhere, and then *BOOM*. Within 48 hours it was gone everywhere. I'm not looking to shoot myself in the foot like that if I can help it!

ghost Dad great post thank you for taking the time I appreciate it you're okay in my book!

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Well, I'm on record since several months ago saying that I think DS is done by the end of the year. I just don't need more than the 17 I already have. I'm comfortable with my stack of GE, but I would add to my 12 HH if I caught them in stock somewhere. I picked up four TB's from walmart.com during their $90 off random sale they had earlier this year. I would have bought more, but then they disappeared, and when they came back, they were MSRP again. I'm not certain enough that the set is EOL this year to buy more at MSRP right now.

I'm slowly buying a few other sets that don't seem to be on people's radar right now, but I was serious about what I said before; brickpickers can create their own short-term EOL effect with panic buying, and after watching TH earlier in the month, I don't want to inadvertently trigger something like that for a set I'm currently accumulating. If you go back far enough in the PS thread, I think you will find that I was the first to note that TH was limit 2 at LEGO Shop at Home. Then NMM posted that in the TH thread, a couple weeks later it went out of stock somewhere, and then *BOOM*. Within 48 hours it was gone everywhere. I'm not looking to shoot myself in the foot like that if I can help it!

ghost Dad great post thank you for taking the time I appreciate it you're okay in my book!

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Any thoughts on if the Sopwith Camel will come back for the holidays? It seems to have remained in a sold out status for some time on LEGO Shop at Home, but I have a hard time believing it is truly gone when the VW Camper is still going strong (limit 5 on LEGO Shop at Home), but came out a year earlier. I see them as similar type and comparable cost

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Dont do that. 5 years from now youre gonna want those ds more.

In 5 years you could just go to your lego store and buy one. I think you meant to say 50.typos happen just ask me.

Over the last two months, I have bought GE, HH, two TH's, and a Tumbler. I'm already feeling the pinch. I'm almost to the point where I'm contemplating selling my DS's (I have three) for below retail so I can use that money to buy more TH's and Tumblers.

Lego investing or investing in general. Probally isn't for you then. Good luck in your future endeavors.
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That is just because it has been around for such a long time. CAGR is calculated from date of release till today. So yes, if you bought this set in september 2009 your investment would only have grown 12.7% per year. Totally different story if you bought it closer to the retirement date.

 

A lot of the other modulars have been around way longer than that and are posting 40-50% CAGRs. The quick jump is gone for the Fire Brigade. Its going to settle at 400$ maybe next year.

 

Funny the people that swore this was an 800$ set.

 

Look at the Haunted House. Barely more expensive, not even retired and its passed the fire brigade.

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Any thoughts on if the Sopwith Camel will come back for the holidays? It seems to have remained in a sold out status for some time on LEGO Shop at Home, but I have a hard time believing it is truly gone when the VW Camper is still going strong (limit 5 on LEGO Shop at Home), but came out a year earlier. I see them as similar type and comparable cost

I wouldn't be surprised if the VW was out-selling the Sopwith at 5 to 1 or more. With the Mini having just come out, one of those might have to go, and it's not going to be the one that's pulling in the most cash for Lego.

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Sure it is.  Lego probably considers profits to some degree, but what matters most to them is when it is time for a set to go.  That question is answered by The Schedule, which sits next to The Banhammer in an undisclosed location somewhere in the general vicinity of Area 51.

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Well, his comments are sometimes a bit lengthy but he has a point about the death star being an  astounding set but not MF material. Two different type of set. No nut case will buy 10188 just for its minifigs. I loved the conclusion of hendrikjager on 10143 DSII . That would be a better contender to beat MF but it cant because its just a big wanna be 3/4th moon.

I like the reviews... does real good work!! Because of his revue of Museum Break-In I saw potential in it and started gathering some.

 

His contact said it would disapear when ewok came... still alive and kicking since I last checked.

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Ds will be a fantastic investment over time. I read it somewhere where the discussion of cagr came up. All I have to say is measuring investment performance from when a set.is released is a useless endevour. Measureable performance from which to make real investment decisions can only be made when a set retires. Availability at retail is not an investment period. The skill and research of the investor will determine if you hold investments for many years prior to retirement or right before. A discount rate on the dollars invested can be used while a set is still available at retail. Either way i hope most keep away from 10188 due to confirmation bias. This will mean less supply later. Based on my only having 30 SSD instead of more, I think at least 40 10188 is my best plan.

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