Retiring Soon - open speculation

[zskid00]

What do you guys think of the desolation of smaug sets. Will they be retired by January.

 

No way does LEGO produce these for only 2 months.  They will possibly be clearanced at retails stores early next year though and I bet they are gone by the end of 2015.

[trekgate502]

No way does LEGO produce these for only 2 months.  They will possibly be clearanced at retails stores early next year though and I bet they are gone by the end of 2015.

 

zskid I think he means the Smaug sets that came out previously not the new sets that are Battle of the Five Armies related.

[Mathew]

That's what I mean. I love LOTR and have a few of the sets for personal use. But they will not make money. I don't even think ToO will make any money, but I will still buy one with VIP points one day.

 

Orthanc will do fine long term.  But I'm not sure what your expectations are.  Some people are happy making fifty bucks...

[mscheaf]

Orthanc will do fine long term.  But I'm not sure what your expectations are.  Some people are happy making fifty bucks...

 

I am not happy making 50 bucks.

[templesweeper]

I don't know.  I think some of these sets could actually be good for long-term investment.  Here's why.  I think the sets haven't sold super-well because A) they aren't really for kids and The Hobbit movies NOT really being for kids I think maybe took Lego by surprise.  But because the theme didn't sell super-well, they've ended the line sooner than anticipated.  And that means that there are limited ways for collectors to get the minifigs they want.  For instance, the only way to get a Boromir figure or a Theoden figure is to buy a very expensive set.  There are a TON of Lord of the Rings enthusiasts out there.  And a lot of the LOTR sets are awesome (especially some of the figs).  So, I think the fact that we DIDN'T get 5 trillion LOTR sets made, it will actually help long-term.  In other words, in a few years, when newer Lego fans or Lord of the Rings fans think, "Wait, there were Lord of the Rings Lego sets made?" They will want them.  There will ALWAYS be a group of fans who will want these.  This isn't Chima or some brand that is going away.  Lord of the Rings is a classic.  I think Orthanc, Helm's Deep, Mines of Moria and Unexpected Gathering are long-term winners (though that last one is more of a Hobbit set, the Shire/Bag End is a classic set piece in both worlds).  

[Neosphinx]

If I wouldn't have looked up Smaug, I wouldn't know it was a flying dragon from a hobbit book.

[trekgate502]

The Lonely Mountain will do ok because of Smaug and all of the sand green bricks.  But it's already overpriced at retail probably because Lego knows that only die hards will be buying it.  So I would expect it be discounted by Amazon, Target etc. by Christmas.  The rest of the line is rather mediocre.

 

Long Long Term I agree with Smaug it will.

 

Short term I bought 2 at $125 each discounted early from TRU before the street date, have had them on ebay (down to $189 now) and no one even remotely bites and very few view.

 

Short term I think everyone is right these will be on discount soon.

[trekgate502]

If I wouldn't have looked up Smaug, I wouldn't know it was a flying dragon from a hobbit book.

 

Effective post about the problem with this series

[oneknightr]

Over the last two months, I have bought GE, HH, two TH's, and a Tumbler. I'm already feeling the pinch. I'm almost to the point where I'm contemplating selling my DS's (I have three) for below retail so I can use that money to buy more TH's and Tumblers. 

[Sauromosis]

Over the last two months, I have bought GE, HH, two TH's, and a Tumbler. I'm already feeling the pinch. I'm almost to the point where I'm contemplating selling my DS's (I have three) for below retail so I can use that money to buy more TH's and Tumblers.

Dont do that. 5 years from now youre gonna want those ds more.

[zskid00]

That's what I mean. I love LOTR and have a few of the sets for personal use. But they will not make money. I don't even think ToO will make any money, but I will still buy one with VIP points one day.

 

The theme has already been profitable for me, but I would agree that it hasn't taken off like most of us expected.  If you buy in at the right price I think there is still money to be made once they are gone.  I am definitely more bullish on the LOTR sets than the Hobbit sets though and I think Orthanc will be a winner due to it's sheer presence so long as it doesn't get an EOL price slash from LEGO or hang around past 2015.

[Ed Mack]

I don't know.  I think some of these sets could actually be good for long-term investment.  Here's why.  I think the sets haven't sold super-well because A) they aren't really for kids and The Hobbit movies NOT really being for kids I think maybe took Lego by surprise.  But because the theme didn't sell super-well, they've ended the line sooner than anticipated.  And that means that there are limited ways for collectors to get the minifigs they want.  For instance, the only way to get a Boromir figure or a Theoden figure is to buy a very expensive set.  There are a TON of Lord of the Rings enthusiasts out there.  And a lot of the LOTR sets are awesome (especially some of the figs).  So, I think the fact that we DIDN'T get 5 trillion LOTR sets made, it will actually help long-term.  In other words, in a few years, when newer Lego fans or Lord of the Rings fans think, "Wait, there were Lord of the Rings Lego sets made?" They will want them.  There will ALWAYS be a group of fans who will want these.  This isn't Chima or some brand that is going away.  Lord of the Rings is a classic.  I think Orthanc, Helm's Deep, Mines of Moria and Unexpected Gathering are long-term winners (though that last one is more of a Hobbit set, the Shire/Bag End is a classic set piece in both worlds).  

The LOTR is a classic among some adults, but the sets are not classic IMO and will suffer for it.  There are a handful of quality LOTR/Hobbit sets and the rest are nothing special.  I view the theme as a lesser Harry Potter.  I also just don't see the reoccurring kid interest in the theme...and that is the difference long term.   

[templesweeper]

The LOTR is a classic among some adults, but the sets are not classic IMO and will suffer for it.  There are a handful of quality LOTR/Hobbit sets and the rest are nothing special.  I view the theme as a lesser Harry Potter.  I also just don't see the reoccurring kid interest in the theme...and that is the difference long term.   

You're right, that there are only a handful of quality sets.  And those are the ones I think will be profitable for years to come.  I showed a friend of mine (NOT into Legos) the Unexpected Gathering set, and he bought one from me right away (I sold it to him for basically what I paid for it....him being a friend and all...)  And ever since then, he's actually gotten into Legos beyond the LOTR theme.  But the LOTR theme has him craving for more and more.  It's like his gateway drug and I'm his dealer.  I actually feel like an awful human right now.  Hah.

[cladner]

 I'm almost to the point where I'm contemplating selling my DS's (I have three) for below retail so I can use that money to buy more TH's and Tumblers. 

BOOM - i think i just heard your message mailbox exploding with PMs of offers to take them off your hands.

probably one of the biggest mistakes you could make right now is to sell a DS even at retail - in fact we should encourage you to do it because it would take something so potentially painfully  ironic to make the DS retire .  6 years into the sets production is not the time to sell unless there's a kidney or soprano episode type of situation at stake.

[Ed Mack]

You're right, that there are only a handful of quality sets.  And those are the ones I think will be profitable for years to come.  I showed a friend of mine (NOT into Legos) the Unexpected Gathering set, and he bought one from me right away (I sold it to him for basically what I paid for it....him being a friend and all...)  And ever since then, he's actually gotten into Legos beyond the LOTR theme.  But the LOTR theme has him craving for more and more.  It's like his gateway drug and I'm his dealer.  I actually feel like an awful human right now.  Hah.

The Unexpected Gathering is a great set.  So is the Tower of Orthanc.  I even like the new Lonely Mountain set(because of Smaug).  I wish LEGO honored such a classic series of books/movies with better sets.  They really could have made some dynamic sets.

[waddamon]

I feel good with all of the LOTR stuff and believe in time they will do well as many of them already have.  I think Orthanc will be a great winning set in due time as it is awesome and Lego has never made, nor will most likely never  make again a set like it.  In terms of the Hobbit, unexpected gathering should do well and that is all.  I purchased Dol Goldur for minifigs and the set design (necromancer), and will get two Smaugs ets, one to build and one to keep.  I did build Helms deep with the kids over the last 3 days and have to say that I really enjoyed it and feel good about the pile that I have.  I am going to track down a bunch of tall slopes to build the back cliff face, since that is missing.  Overall a very good set.

[legoaddiction]

I think helms deep is definately one of my favourites. I also like the unexpected gathering but It has been sitting in my shelf for easy too long. I don't think it will retire until late next year. The tower of orthanc will be out for a while longer yet but if it does retire it will catch many for a surprise so if you like it grab it now

[trekgate502]

I think helms deep is definately one of my favourites. I also like the unexpected gathering but It has been sitting in my shelf for easy too long. I don't think it will retire until late next year. The tower of orthanc will be out for a while longer yet but if it does retire it will catch many for a surprise so if you like it grab it now

 

I love Helm's Deep there was a person I met while waiting in line at the Cincinnati, OH Lego store in the last year for a release day set (cannot remember if Ewok or Red X-Wing or which) that had made an absolutely humongous MOC version of Helm's Deep.  He is probably a fellow BP member.  The photos were incredible.  Of course Helm's Deep is one of my favorite part of the trilogy I was just watching it the other night.

[oneknightr]

 

Dont do that. 5 years from now youre gonna want those ds more.

 

But the DS won't even be retired five years from now! It's the set that won't die! haha

 

BOOM - i think i just heard your message mailbox exploding with PMs of offers to take them off your hands.

probably one of the biggest mistakes you could make right now is to sell a DS even at retail - in fact we should encourage you to do it because it would take something so potentially painfully  ironic to make the DS retire .  6 years into the sets production is not the time to sell unless there's a kidney or soprano episode type of situation at stake.

 

The money I spent on those sets has been tied up for too long with no ROI. I could've put that money into FB's and made a nice chunk of change by now. I truly feel that the DS isn't going to retire within the next two years, but that's just my opinion. I'd rather have the $1200 invested into TH's, GE's, and HH's. 

 

I had four DS's but I traded one for a SSD straight up a year ago. Wish I could've done the same for the other three! 

[hxckid88]

Great List, whether it takes them a month or a year (or longer) to all be gone.

I've been purchasing all of these with the exception of no Tower Bridge, Horizon Express or AA.

I am just skittish on the Tower Bridge as a big money maker though I had 2, sold them during 4x VIP on ebay (for the buyer) and netted 10% after costs from MSRP + tax.

But many are believers it will jump very well. I would love to hear from an American (no offense to UK brethren) that are EXTREMELY bullish on the Tower Bridge.

I plan to acquire some of the Horizon Express, AA and Winter Village Market sets during Black Friday weekend with Set 2 of 2. Of course I want lots of Santa's Toy Workshop too (have 4) for hopeful Christmas flip but it is down to limit 1 now so that may prove harder.

I don't see Santa's workshop be *** a quick flip. Lego always has stocks of that years current holiday set. The way I do these sets is buy them a. Month before they retire. While everyone is buying toy shop I'll be buying the village as it will 99.9 percent be gone by mid February at the latest. The holiday sets are in my opinion the easiest thing to predict.

[trekgate502]

I don't see Santa's workshop be *** a quick flip. Lego always has stocks of that years current holiday set. The way I do these sets is buy them a. Month before they retire. While everyone is buying toy shop I'll be buying the village as it will 99.9 percent be gone by mid February at the latest. The holiday sets are in my opinion the easiest thing to predict.

 

You may be right on the Santa's workshop but I absolutely love Christmas and Santa so perhaps I am skewed.

That being said they took the limit from 2 down to 1 at LEGO Shop at Home and its now on backorder so I think there is the potential it will stock out.

Not enough I am buying 20 of them but a few more maybe.

 

Update: Potential it will not be available in the weeks leading up to Christmas and be a good time to sell.

[Spanky]

Over the last two months, I have bought GE, HH, two TH's, and a Tumbler. I'm already feeling the pinch. I'm almost to the point where I'm contemplating selling my DS's (I have three) for below retail so I can use that money to buy more TH's and Tumblers. 

 

That is the exact mistake I made selling off my stock of FB last October, except in my case it was to free up storage space and not cash.  Do not sell your DS below retail or you will come to regret it sooner than you think, especially if you buy Tumblers instead.

[cladner]

 

 

 

 

But the DS won't even be retired five years from now! It's the set that won't die! haha

 

 

The money I spent on those sets has been tied up for too long with no ROI. I could've put that money into FB's and made a nice chunk of change by now. I truly feel that the DS isn't going to retire within the next two years, but that's just my opinion. I'd rather have the $1200 invested into TH's, GE's, and HH's. 

 

I had four DS's but I traded one for a SSD straight up a year ago. Wish I could've done the same for the other three! 

 

many share your cagr pain on the DS but all is not dead on the ROI front.

 

factoring in costs and inflation new packaging and shipping costs of larger older boxes along with and no change in the price of the set along with what i must hope is market saturation, i really hope the DS goes sooner than later.  

 

not all sets go like the SSD or GE in and out of stock - a few are gone and that's it.  DS could be one of those since most lego retail outlets are either asking for more than msrp or don't have any (except for recently this week amazon showing up with some msrp ds).  

 

there are a lot of people who have 0 DS and will wish they had at least 1 - just like the SSD.

this set will have an immediate pop when it does go to SOLD OUT->RETIRE and the probability of that happening increases every day.

[trekgate502]

I'll bite. If you are interested in any of the following set, you should pick up a few every week over the next 6 months.

 

#10188 2008-06 Death Star

#10214 2010-10 Tower Bridge

#10218 2011-05 Pet Shop

#10220 2011-09 Volkswagen T1 Camper Van

#10225 2012-04 R2-D2

#79003 2012-11 An Unexpected Gathering

#10233 2012-12 Horizon Express

#10237 2013-07 Tower of Orthanc

 

If you are looking for the set to load up on now, in hopes for a quick flip, you are playing this game differently than I and I can not help you.

 

FC I meant to mention I am not buying any of my stuff for the quick flip.

I stil have for example my FB's in storage safe and sound.

 

What my main goal in my post was is I know respectfully Ghost Dad has a lot of comments about what other people are investing in and not investing in.

I am really interested to have Ghost Dad share what he is investing in and why whether it retires in a week or in years.  Hearing what he is pursuing would be an interesting read to me.

[GhostDad]

FC I meant to mention I am not buying any of my stuff for the quick flip.

I stil have for example my FB's in storage safe and sound.

 

What my main goal in my post was is I know respectfully Ghost Dad has a lot of comments about what other people are investing in and not investing in.

I am really interested to have Ghost Dad share what he is investing in and why whether it retires in a week or in years.  Hearing what he is pursuing would be an interesting read to me.

Well, I'm on record since several months ago saying that I think DS is done by the end of the year.  I just don't need more than the 17 I already have.  I'm comfortable with my stack of GE, but I would add to my 12 HH if I caught them in stock somewhere.  I picked up four TB's from walmart.com during their $90 off random sale they had earlier this year.  I would have bought more, but then they disappeared, and when they came back, they were MSRP again.  I'm not certain enough that the set is EOL this year to buy more at MSRP right now.

 

I'm slowly buying a few other sets that don't seem to be on people's radar right now, but I was serious about what I said before; brickpickers can create their own short-term EOL effect with panic buying, and after watching TH earlier in the month, I don't want to inadvertently trigger something like that for a set I'm currently accumulating.  If you go back far enough in the PS thread, I think you will find that I was the first to note that TH was limit 2 at LEGO Shop at Home.  Then NMM posted that in the TH thread, a couple weeks later it went out of stock somewhere, and then *BOOM*.  Within 48 hours it was gone everywhere.  I'm not looking to shoot myself in the foot like that if I can help it!

Edited October 9, 2014 by GhostDad