Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Sauromosis]

Two stock brokers are in a bank, when, suddenly, armed robbers burst in, waving guns and yelling for everyone to freeze. While several of the robbers take the money from the tellers, others line the customers, including the two stock brokers, up against a wall, and proceed to take their wallets, watches, and other valuables. While this is going on, one of the stock brokers jams something into the other stockbroker's hand. Without looking down, the second stockbroker whispers: "What is this?" The first stockbroker : "It's the $100 I owe you!"

[glucapg]

I don't want to know when a set will go EOL...I want to guess it

[Bold-Arrow]

Two stock brokers are in a bank, when, suddenly, armed robbers burst in, waving guns and yelling for everyone to freeze. While several of the robbers take the money from the tellers, others line the customers, including the two stock brokers, up against a wall, and proceed to take their wallets, watches, and other valuables. While this is going on, one of the stock brokers jams something into the other stockbroker's hand. Without looking down, the second stockbroker whispers: "What is this?" The first stockbroker : "It's the $100 I owe you!"

?????

[glucapg]

?????

Wall Street Humour 

[Bold-Arrow]

Wall Street Humour

Not sure if he meant to post it in this thread

[Sauromosis]

I saw someone demand investing information sans humor and couldn't resist.

[Bold-Arrow]

I saw someone demand investing information sans humor and couldn't resist.

Gotcha .. Missed that post .

[newbie77]

I'm sure this has been discussed on this thread before (probably many pages back), but have you guys ever tracked the limits for the exclusives on LEGO shop at home and been able to infer anything from that?  Most of the usual suspects which have have been in production a while are a limit of 2 (GE, HH, DS, Joust, R2, WVM, Orthanc, Arkham, Sopwith, etc.).  I do recall that even when the GE status was changing daily back in July the limit was 5 at some point and then they switched it back to 2.  I just wonder if LEGO reduces the limit as a set nears retirement or if this is more of a production issue where they want to slow down the quantities purchased for sets that are consistently going on backorder.

its rather indication of their supply level rather than when its going to retire. i for most part believe that they have defined production line. they don't want to overstock on the other hand don't want to produce less. they produce "some defined quantity" and then dedicate the production line to some other set. so for them its about making them co-relate in numbers. with the lower limits or by lowering numbers they are trying to just align together.

 

when i said back in may/june time-frame GE will be back @ LEGO Shop at Home people laughed @ me.

 

its never done until its completely gone. @ least in US its getting overcrowded with resellers so margins are going to be low and risks are getting lot higher than they were before.

 

looks like GE is being hoarded in lot larger quantity like any other exclusives.... these days so the rapid ROI will be hard to come by.

Edited September 10, 2014 by newbie77

[GhostDad]

its rather indication of their supply level rather than when its going to retire. i for most part believe that they have defined production line. they don't want to overstock on the other hand don't want to produce less. they produce "some defined quantity" and then dedicate the production line to some other set. so for them its about making them co-relate in numbers. with the lower limits or by lowering numbers they are trying to just align together.

 

when i said back in may/june time-frame GE will be back @ LEGO Shop at Home people laughed @ me.

 

its never done until its completely gone. @ least in US its getting overcrowded with resellers so margins are going to be low and risks are getting lot higher than they were before.

 

looks like GE is being hoarded in lot larger quantity like any other exclusives.... these days so the rapid ROI will be hard to come by.

Unfortunately, any decent set nearing EOL is going to be "hoarded".  Still, I'd rather jump on the GE bandwagon than be the only one to invest in, say, Chima Speedorz...

 

Regarding quantity limits, there are cases, like with the Tumblr, where sets start with a limit of 2.  Not sure what you can infer from that (although RI always had a limit of 1 and it really did disappear pretty fast).  However, we do know that with the SSD, it went from limit 5 to limit 1 shortly before retirement.  If GE, HH, and DS do in fact retire soon, their recent limit contractions from 5 to 2 will be interpreted retrospectively to have been signs of imminent EOL.  Here's the thing though.  If you don't want to invest based on speculation, that's fine, but understand that 95% of sets you actually want to buy will disappear months before Lego even marks them as "retiring soon".  That's a bigger risk for most folks than buying a couple months too early (an exception might be if you're putting legos on a 20% APR credit card and not paying off the balance; then the waiting hurts).

 

On a related note, does anyone remember if AA used to be limit 5 at LEGO Shop at Home?

[r0by76]

I don't want to know when a set will go EOL...I want to guess it

That's the Italian way! ;)

[ravenb99]

Unfortunately, any decent set nearing EOL is going to be "hoarded".  Still, I'd rather jump on the GE bandwagon than be the only one to invest in, say, Chima Speedorz...

 

Regarding quantity limits, there are cases, like with the Tumblr, where sets start with a limit of 2.  Not sure what you can infer from that (although RI always had a limit of 1 and it really did disappear pretty fast).  However, we do know that with the SSD, it went from limit 5 to limit 1 shortly before retirement.  If GE, HH, and DS do in fact retire soon, their recent limit contractions from 5 to 2 will be interpreted retrospectively to have been signs of imminent EOL.  Here's the thing though.  If you don't want to invest based on speculation, that's fine, but understand that 95% of sets you actually want to buy will disappear months before Lego even marks them as "retiring soon".  That's a bigger risk for most folks than buying a couple months too early (an exception might be if you're putting legos on a 20% APR credit card and not paying off the balance; then the waiting hurts).

 

On a related note, does anyone remember if AA used to be limit 5 at LEGO Shop at Home?

Yes AA was 5. Just saw after reading your post it was now 2. RI did start as a 2 limit like exo but was reduced to 1 later that day. My wife and I each purchased the 2 online then hit the stores up for 2 each. By that evening it was 1 and some stores were 1 per household

[GhostDad]

Target.com has finally come back to its senses with the Camper Vans --  $164.99 and unavailable online.  Good stuff that.

[newbie77]

Target.com has finally come back to its senses with the Camper Vans --  $164.99 and unavailable online.  Good stuff that.

good senses to reduce from 172 to 164.99.. ? not sure if i understand what you are implying here

[No More Monkeys]

good senses to reduce from 172 to 164.99.. ? not sure if i understand what you are implying here

your sarcasm detector needs servicing, dude...

[No More Monkeys]

Target.com has finally come back to its senses with the Camper Vans --  $164.99 and unavailable online.  Good stuff that.

We need to figure out at what time exactly Target queries Amazon for the lowest priced FBA price, and implement rotating schedule of FBA resellers to temporarily set MSRP price for the sets that no longer carried by amazon. I wonder if that could be considered as collusion...  BTW, I noticed that Walmart started doing something similar - see http://www.walmart.com/ip/LEGO-Star-Wars-Jabba-s-Palace-Play-Set/21095580

[M4x18]

So I just received an email from a local guy who has a Lego seller license where he asked if we wanted some sets that won't be available after December and I have to say that I was surprised to see a particular set among the ones he listed, others we already had hints about them EOL-ing. Anyways, here are the ones he listed:

10221 SSD

10220 T1 Camper

10211 Grand Emporium

10225 R2-D2

10233 Horizon Express

10224 Town Hall

Obviously, I was surprised about the Town Hall, if that one goes before the Pet Shop that'll be a big surprise.

[hxckid88]

So I just received an email from a local guy who has a Lego seller license where he asked if we wanted some sets that won't be available after December and I have to say that I was surprised to see a particular set among the ones he listed, others we already had hints about them EOL-ing. Anyways, here are the ones he listed:

10221 SSD

10220 T1 Camper

10211 Grand Emporium

10225 R2-D2

10233 Horizon Express

10224 Town Hall

Obviously, I was surprised about the Town Hall, if that one goes before the Pet Shop that'll be a big surprise.

Any past experiences with this guy and his accuracy?

[mscheaf]

So I just received an email from a local guy who has a Lego seller license where he asked if we wanted some sets that won't be available after December and I have to say that I was surprised to see a particular set among the ones he listed, others we already had hints about them EOL-ing. Anyways, here are the ones he listed:

10221 SSD

10220 T1 Camper

10211 Grand Emporium

10225 R2-D2

10233 Horizon Express

10224 Town Hall

Obviously, I was surprised about the Town Hall, if that one goes before the Pet Shop that'll be a big surprise.

 

I just picked up a town hall on ebay for $170 shipped. Glad I did. Doesn't seem like R2 has been out that long but when I looked it is over 2 years now.

[exciter1]

So I just received an email from a local guy who has a Lego seller license where he asked if we wanted some sets that won't be available after December and I have to say that I was surprised to see a particular set among the ones he listed, others we already had hints about them EOL-ing. Anyways, here are the ones he listed:

10221 SSD

10220 T1 Camper

10211 Grand Emporium

10225 R2-D2

10233 Horizon Express

10224 Town Hall

Obviously, I was surprised about the Town Hall, if that one goes before the Pet Shop that'll be a big surprise.

 

Oh yeah, this is speculation at it's best.

[mscheaf]

I mean it's a list of stuff I am trying to buy anyway, so it won't change my plans at all.

[asharerin]

10221 SSD

10211 Grand Emporium

10228 Haunted House

10235 Winter Village Market

10226 Sopwith Camel

10188 Death Star - extended

10220 T1 Camper - extended

 

All speculation of course

Edited September 19, 2014 by asharerin

[Sauromosis]

Wouldn't surprise me...as people have said Town Hall has a price point and complexity in build that turns people off.

[M4x18]

Any past experiences with this guy and his accuracy?

None, I've bought from him before but this is the first time he has sent an email like this one.

[No More Monkeys]

Coincidentally, these are limit 2 at lego us

 

10225 R2-D2
10233 Horizon Express
10224 Town Hall

 

Camper is limit 5 though.

 

Is he implying you could order HH from him next year?

[M4x18]

Coincidentally, these are limit 2 at lego us

10225 R2-D2

10233 Horizon Express

10224 Town Hall

Camper is limit 5 though.

Is he implying you could order HH from him next year?

I think he just listed the ones he thought were interesting for him