Retiring Soon - open speculation

[raindog]

18 hours ago, Shortbus311 said:

IMO Shane is a tool and his channel will probably end in failure. In the FB group he "wishes him the best" but immediately takes down any posts that link to Jim's new channel. Seems pretty petty instead of wishing someone the best.
 

Funny thing is, 9 months ago, Shane didn't know LEGO from the other L brick.  He's a newbie and his advice shows it.  Jim had questionable advice.  Shane's is just....wrong, at times.

Edited August 14, 2021 by raindog

[Shortbus311]

Xmas winter sets have 3 year cycle. They usually sell out in the early part of the 3rd year (q4).
Gingerbread house is about to start its 3rd xmas cycle so should sell out Sep/Oct time. Elf club should be Sep/Oct 2022

Right, but the Brickfanatics list says that Elf Clubhouse isn't retiring until Dec 2023.

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[donbee]

One good thing that likely will come out of split is increased in quantity and hopefully quality of videos as they each seek to outdo the other. 

Lol, your optimism is adorable.


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[joneyyy1981]

its interesting reading the comments on these blogs.

the owner even says "I cannot and will not believe that Pirate Bay should go for that. But if we wait until October / November with our list, until LEGO is through with the adjustments, it doesn't help either."

which means stonewars at least are getting the information from somewhere.

i also always find interesting why lego only list a small portion of the actual retiring sets as 'retiringsoon' on the website. i guess the smoke & mirros of retiriment speculation leads to increased sales.

[iahawks550]

1 minute ago, joneyyy1981 said:

its interesting reading the comments on these blogs.

the owner even says "I cannot and will not believe that Pirate Bay should go for that. But if we wait until October / November with our list, until LEGO is through with the adjustments, it doesn't help either."

which means stonewars at least are getting the information from somewhere.

i also always find interesting why lego only list a small portion of the actual retiring sets as 'retiringsoon' on the website. i guess the smoke & mirros of retiriment speculation leads to increased sales.

TLG has little to gain by a "retiring soon" moniker, besides selling the duds.

[gmpirate]

1 hour ago, iahawks550 said:

TLG has little to gain by a "retiring soon" moniker, besides selling the duds.

It would seem they may value all the speculation.  

[elmaslıefendi]

You guys overthink this, there is only a handful of possible endings here:

 

 

 

 

 

[roxio]

5 hours ago, Shortbus311 said:

Right, but the Brickfanatics list says that Elf Clubhouse isn't retiring until Dec 2023.

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Probably so they can spring the "brought forward exclusive update" this time next year for its 2022 retirement 😅

[coelian]

I thought Donald Duck, Goofy and Pluto was supposed to retire this year but they seemed to have dropped off the lists?

[cladner]

3 hours ago, coelian said:

I thought Donald Duck, Goofy and Pluto was supposed to retire this year but they seemed to have dropped off the lists?

i  never saw a list that they were on.  i have a lot of both and am disappointed they look to be sticking around.

[coelian]

1 hour ago, cladner said:

i  never saw a list that they were on.  i have a lot of both and am disappointed they look to be sticking around.

Iirc they were on earlier versions and I was trying to stock up on them. I'm on a road trip to France for a week starting tomorrow and will be hitting some stores. Looks like I won't need to stock up on them.

They are pretty hard to come by for me as they are only available from SAH and I'm 2 hours away from the nearest store. 

[gmpirate]

Could have sworn I saw Pluto on a previous list but figured Donald was waiting around for Daisy.

3 minutes ago, coelian said:

They are pretty hard to come by for me as they are only available from SAH and I'm 2 hours away from the nearest store. 

That's why I like buying them 😀

[Brystheguy]

On 8/13/2021 at 5:15 PM, gmpirate said:

The only time any of these Youtube guys get interesting is when they interview other people about their operations.  At least that is the carrot that gets me intrigued until I hear that their collection is just nearing a value of $50k or they just hit a yearly sales volume of 6 figures.  They talk so authoritatively and then half way through video it all comes to light 😆

So who is out there posting that is churning through enough inventory that you're impressed enough to take them seriously? I give credit to anyone that is willing to share their investment information. I'd love to know how some of these bigger guys are doing it too. ( I have so many questions I need answered! 😄) I don't see them making videos or even sharing here that much. Heck, we have guys here buying one set at a time for “investment” so these videos will always command an audience. 

[Achilles]

6 minutes ago, Brystheguy said:

So who is out there posting that is churning through enough inventory that you're impressed enough to take them seriously? I give credit to anyone that is willing to share their investment information. I'd love to know how some of these bigger guys are doing it too. ( I have so many questions I need answered! 😄) I don't see them making videos or even sharing here that much. Heck, we have guys here buying one set at a time for “investment” so these videos will always command an audience. 

I haven't watched any of the videos from anyone lately, or those encouraging Arbitrage or whatever... I have commented how I ran into several flippers this clearance wave saying they were new to it all, and learned about it on Youtube/Reddit, etc - a huge uptick in the numbers I've seen previously.

I have been watching with interest/humor/horror some of the items from Walmart being clearanced be absolutely flooded into Amazon 3rd Party Sellers... 41165 has 200+ sellers... The 4+ Snowspeeder has 150+. The MOTU Mega Bloks sets that were on clearance have 200+ sellers. Great Hall, which had a lot of sellers even before this, is close to 150+ which is pretty darn high for a $100+ set. Sith Ties, 100+, you get the idea. A good direct comparison is the Mickey Art set, which was the only one I am aware of Cleared at Wally. It has about 50 sellers, all the other art sets - about 20. And about half the Mickey Art sellers are people with 20 or fewer lifetime ratings.

I am interested to see how this will all shake out. There's going to be a pretty serious race to the bottom and undercutting wars as people don't churn their inventory as fast as they thought they would for probably profits much smaller than they were expecting. Whether it was COVID or whatever else, there's definitely been a huge uptick in interest/those selling online. Even comparing to this year's post Christmas clearance wave, the numbers seem double or more what I am used to seeing with the flippers.

This isn't "End is near" speculation. But I do think it's going to be interesting in the short term.

 

 

[Goblin]

25 minutes ago, Achilles said:

I am interested to see how this will all shake out. There's going to be a pretty serious race to the bottom and undercutting wars as people don't churn their inventory as fast as they thought they would for probably profits much smaller than they were expecting. Whether it was COVID or whatever else, there's definitely been a huge uptick in interest/those selling online. Even comparing to this year's post Christmas clearance wave, the numbers seem double or more what I am used to seeing with the flippers.

Similar story here in the UK with quantities of sellers. I'll add there is a lot more resistance to parents paying over RRP, and directing their children to cheaper options, 763 sets on SaH today for example!  

Cost of living has crept up, and more punters are using price tracking software/websites, keeping their spending under close control. 

[Pseudoty]

7 hours ago, Achilles said:

I haven't watched any of the videos from anyone lately, or those encouraging Arbitrage or whatever... I have commented how I ran into several flippers this clearance wave saying they were new to it all, and learned about it on Youtube/Reddit, etc - a huge uptick in the numbers I've seen previously.

I have been watching with interest/humor/horror some of the items from Walmart being clearanced be absolutely flooded into Amazon 3rd Party Sellers... 41165 has 200+ sellers... The 4+ Snowspeeder has 150+. The MOTU Mega Bloks sets that were on clearance have 200+ sellers. Great Hall, which had a lot of sellers even before this, is close to 150+ which is pretty darn high for a $100+ set. Sith Ties, 100+, you get the idea. A good direct comparison is the Mickey Art set, which was the only one I am aware of Cleared at Wally. It has about 50 sellers, all the other art sets - about 20. And about half the Mickey Art sellers are people with 20 or fewer lifetime ratings.

I am interested to see how this will all shake out. There's going to be a pretty serious race to the bottom and undercutting wars as people don't churn their inventory as fast as they thought they would for probably profits much smaller than they were expecting. Whether it was COVID or whatever else, there's definitely been a huge uptick in interest/those selling online. Even comparing to this year's post Christmas clearance wave, the numbers seem double or more what I am used to seeing with the flippers.

This isn't "End is near" speculation. But I do think it's going to be interesting in the short term.

 

 

Excellent post!

Here are two I am watching since they were promoted as “Better Than Gold” and weren’t even Walmart clearanced: 

75317  Mandalorian BHZ 100 sellers

21319 Central Perk 120 sellers

 

[skinsfan0521]

7 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Excellent post!

Here are two I am watching since they were promoted as “Better Than Gold” and weren’t even Walmart clearanced: 

75317  Mandalorian BHZ 100 sellers

21319 Central Perk 120 sellers

 

Just my opinion, but I think there is a big difference between the flippers who are new to this and many/most on here who are buying & holding. I'm definitely not an "investor" and holding for many years like some are, but I don't buy anything and expect to sell it in less than 12-18 months. I would guess that most of the new sellers who came onto these listings recently are looking to flip for a smaller profit in a shorter timeframe than me. So, I don't really think it's a big deal that there are tons of sellers on these listings because they most likely have an entirely different business model than me and will mostly sell through their inventory this Q4.

[Mark Twain]

9 hours ago, Achilles said:

I haven't watched any of the videos from anyone lately, or those encouraging Arbitrage or whatever... I have commented how I ran into several flippers this clearance wave saying they were new to it all, and learned about it on Youtube/Reddit, etc - a huge uptick in the numbers I've seen previously.

I have been watching with interest/humor/horror some of the items from Walmart being clearanced be absolutely flooded into Amazon 3rd Party Sellers... 41165 has 200+ sellers... The 4+ Snowspeeder has 150+. The MOTU Mega Bloks sets that were on clearance have 200+ sellers. Great Hall, which had a lot of sellers even before this, is close to 150+ which is pretty darn high for a $100+ set. Sith Ties, 100+, you get the idea. A good direct comparison is the Mickey Art set, which was the only one I am aware of Cleared at Wally. It has about 50 sellers, all the other art sets - about 20. And about half the Mickey Art sellers are people with 20 or fewer lifetime ratings.

I am interested to see how this will all shake out. There's going to be a pretty serious race to the bottom and undercutting wars as people don't churn their inventory as fast as they thought they would for probably profits much smaller than they were expecting. Whether it was COVID or whatever else, there's definitely been a huge uptick in interest/those selling online. Even comparing to this year's post Christmas clearance wave, the numbers seem double or more what I am used to seeing with the flippers.

This isn't "End is near" speculation. But I do think it's going to be interesting in the short term.

 

 

There are some new seller accounts trickling in on Amazon, which is curious considering how much of a grind it is to get approval to sell in subcategory toys. Either Amazon lifted certain restrictions, or we are seeing existing sellers broaden their platform. 

[Shortbus311]

There are some new seller accounts trickling in on Amazon, which is curious considering how much of a grind it is to get approval to sell in subcategory toys. Either Amazon lifted certain restrictions, or we are seeing existing sellers broaden their platform. 

I just got approved like 2 months ago. It was surprisingly easier than expected and wasn't "much of a grind" at all. I had been selling on Ebay for years and after hearing all the stories from here and elsewhere just figured it would be too difficult to actually get ungated. Then I connected with a awesome reseller who showed me how simple it was and now I am off to the races!

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[Achilles]

49 minutes ago, Shortbus311 said:

I just got approved like 2 months ago. It was surprisingly easier than expected and wasn't "much of a grind" at all. I had been selling on Ebay for years and after hearing all the stories from here and elsewhere just figured it would be too difficult to actually get ungated. Then I connected with a awesome reseller who showed me how simple it was and now I am off to the races!

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Yea, despite the tough talk from Amazon the last couple years, none of what I have observed makes it appear it's any harder to get approved to sell on Amazon...

 

 

3 hours ago, skinsfan0521 said:

Just my opinion, but I think there is a big difference between the flippers who are new to this and many/most on here who are buying & holding. I'm definitely not an "investor" and holding for many years like some are, but I don't buy anything and expect to sell it in less than 12-18 months. I would guess that most of the new sellers who came onto these listings recently are looking to flip for a smaller profit in a shorter timeframe than me. So, I don't really think it's a big deal that there are tons of sellers on these listings because they most likely have an entirely different business model than me and will mostly sell through their inventory this Q4.

Definitely. I wonder how much of these folks will make enough money to keep going flipping this season.

And the Mando BattlePack I am still a big believer in. I also think there will be big supplies of it available. But it's pretty much a slam dunk.

[redcell]

11 hours ago, Brystheguy said:

So who is out there posting that is churning through enough inventory that you're impressed enough to take them seriously? I give credit to anyone that is willing to share their investment information. I'd love to know how some of these bigger guys are doing it too. ( I have so many questions I need answered! 😄) I don't see them making videos or even sharing here that much. Heck, we have guys here buying one set at a time for “investment” so these videos will always command an audience. 

I'm not aware of any sellers out there who are churning volume and posting videos to Youtube because why would you post to Youtube if you're churning enough volume to make serious money when doing so would only create more competition and hurt your ability to churn volume?       

[Brystheguy]

I'm not aware of any sellers out there who are churning volume and posting videos to Youtube because why would you post to Youtube if you're churning enough volume to make serious money when doing so would only create more competition and hurt your ability to churn volume?       

We're on the same page. We should be grateful for anyone giving advice as most people don't.

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[Darth_Raichu]

9 hours ago, Achilles said:

Definitely. I wonder how much of these folks will make enough money to keep going flipping this season.

How many wished they did not sell anything online come tax day for 2021 income ?

[pharmjod]

3 minutes ago, Brystheguy said:

We're on the same page. We should be grateful for anyone giving advice as most people don't.

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I would actually prefer all the YouTubers go away and stop giving advice. Good, bad or otherwise. Competition only hurts you as a seller. All these people that want to preach about having a scarcity mentality being bad can take a hike. If your primary hustle is selling LEGO, more people selling LEGO is rarely a good thing.

[joneyyy1981]

2 minutes ago, pharmjod said:

I would actually prefer all the YouTubers go away and stop giving advice. Good, bad or otherwise. Competition only hurts you as a seller. All these people that want to preach about having a scarcity mentality being bad can take a hike. If your primary hustle is selling LEGO, more people selling LEGO is rarely a good thing.

but, but, you get likes and 2p per million views.