Retiring Soon - open speculation

[gmpirate]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

If you are intending to buy 50 personal use, buy 80 or so now.

If it retires early, sell the extra 30 in a year or two for $30-$40 each.

If it goes down to 9.99, just buy more - I don't see the problem.

Yep, that's exactly how I play roulette too.  I just keep doubling down until it turns black again!  🤪

 

[Sozial]

14 hours ago, gmpirate said:

Yep, that's exactly how I play roulette too.  I just keep doubling down until it turns black again!  🤪

 

With some friends we actually did that in a casino until we stopped at 2048 Euro.💩

[Bricklectic]

14 hours ago, gmpirate said:

Yep, that's exactly how I play roulette too.  I just keep doubling down until it turns black again!  🤪

 

 

7 minutes ago, Sozial said:

With some friends we actually did that in a casino until we stopped at 2048 Euro.💩

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

[Brad W]

So, when are the supposed 2020 retirements supposed to happen in the US? Most of them are OOS on LEGO.com, but just wondering when/if they will actually retire? 

[cladner]

1 hour ago, Brad W said:

So, when are the supposed 2020 retirements supposed to happen in the US? Most of them are OOS on LEGO.com, but just wondering when/if they will actually retire? 

huge variability about when a set is labeled RETIRED across the world.  most sets that we expect in north america to be retired are already retired in eastern europe.   sets that are long ago retired in north america are listed as temporarily out of stock on australian shop at home.  eastern europe seems like it has its act together and has the retirements done the quickest.  not sure if that helps you at all or if you're just waiting for it to be retired in US so you can advertise it as RETIRED.  us shop at home likes to drag their feet - my theory is to discourage resellers from gobbling up last bits of retail stock when something goes to RETIRED.

Edited February 15, 2021 by cladner

[Emvisawthatswho]

huge variability about when a set is labeled RETIRED across the world.  most sets that we expect in north america to be retired are already retired in eastern europe.   sets that are long ago retired in north america are listed as temporarily out of stock on australian shop at home.  eastern europe seems like it has its act together and has the retirements done the quickest.  not sure if that helps you at all or if you're just waiting for it to be retired in US so you can advertise it as RETIRED.  us shop at home likes to drag their feet - my theory is to discourage resellers from gobbling up last bits of retail stock when something goes to RETIRED.

I agree with the US dragging their feet 100%, but for another reason as well. Seems like they likely get bombed with complaints when a set is marked “retired”, only to “unretire” months later. They love the “Sold Out” tag, another thought is they don’t retire it fully until all retail outlets have sold their last remaining stock (hello Mr. Triceratops Rampage).

[Shortbus311]

With some friends we actually did that in a casino until we stopped at 2048 Euro.

Lol, I did that at riverboat casino playing blackjack one Thanksgiving weekend. Doubled my bet after every loss, still split and doubled down everytime I was supposed to. There was no maximum bet on the $25 table I was playing on. Had to double down on a $1600 bet once, but won that hand. Ended up leaving on Sunday $21k richer. Went back a year later and the $25 tables all had $500 max bets on them haha.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

weird how RRP I used to scoff at starts to look good once the set falls on EOL list (looking at Creeper Mine)

[joneyyy1981]

12 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

weird how RRP I used to scoff at starts to look good once the set falls on EOL list (looking at Creeper Mine)

Said it for years. Got thrown under the bus Last year for saying I was buying Vegas & carosel for rrp. Nothing wrong with rrp on certain sets. Just a little less profit margin to play with.

to clarify before I’m lynched again “certain sets only”

[spener90]

7 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Said it for years. Got thrown under the bus Last year for saying I was buying Vegas & carosel for rrp. Nothing wrong with rrp on certain sets. Just a little less profit margin to play with.

to clarify before I’m lynched again “certain sets only”

[Bricklectic]

9 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Said it for years. Got thrown under the bus Last year for saying I was buying Vegas & carosel for rrp. Nothing wrong with rrp on certain sets. Just a little less profit margin to play with.

to clarify before I’m lynched again “certain sets only”

When I started out my model was to wait until sets were confirmed retired in other regions. At that point they typically were not attainable below MSRP in USA. Thats when I bought and did quite well that way. Nothing wrong at all IMO to buy winners at MSRP. IT's the questionable sets that you want the extra margin of safety discounts provide.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

44 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Said it for years. Got thrown under the bus Last year for saying I was buying Vegas & carosel for rrp. Nothing wrong with rrp on certain sets. Just a little less profit margin to play with.

to clarify before I’m lynched again “certain sets only”

sorry that you got heavily criticized (but often times it's just 1 or 2 vocal members and not representative of majority); but getting a strong rise after making a comment is the kind of discourse that benefits this community (IMO) 

...otherwise we're all in an echo chamber

Edited February 16, 2021 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Emvisawthatswho]

weird how RRP I used to scoff at starts to look good once the set falls on EOL list (looking at Creeper Mine)

I like this set. Also 75254 for $40 when it can be found at Wally.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Figured I'd throw in the March/Summer 2021 Promobricks and Stonewars lists in here, thanks to both sites for their articles:

City

60221 - Diving Yacht

60228 - Deep Space Rocket and Launch Control

60254 - Race Boat Transporter

Classic

10715 - Bricks on a Roll

11007 - Creative Building Bricks

Creator

31097 - Townhouse Pet Shop & Cafe

Disney

43172 - Elsa's Magical Ice Palace

41165 - Anna's Canoe Expedition

43180 - Belle's Castle Winter Celebration

Dots

41919 - Power Bracelet

41911 - Go Team! Bracelet

Duplo

10840 - Big Fair

10871 - Airport

10902 - Police Station

10910 - Submarine Adventure

10894 - Toy Story Train

10928 - Bakery

Harry Potter

75954 - Hogwarts Great Hall

Jurassic World

75935 - Baryonyx Face-Off: The Treasure Hunt

Minecraft

21153 - The Wool Farm

21155 - The Creeper Mine

Ninjago

71711 - Jay's Cyber Dragon

71707 - Kai's Mech Jet

71708 - Gamer's Market

71706 - Cole's Speeder Car

71710 - Ninja Tuner Car

71712 - Empire Temple of Madness

71718 - Wu's Battle Dragon

70687 - Spinjitzu Burst - Lloyd

70686 - Spinjitzu Burst - Kai

71717 - Journey to the Skull Dungeons

70685 - Spinjitzu Burst - Cole

Speed Champions

75890 - Ferrari F40

75891 - Chevrolet Camaro ZL1

75893 -  2018 Dodge Challenger SRT Demon and 1970 Dodge Charger R/T

75892 - McLaren Senna

75895 - 1974 Porsche 911 Turbo 3.0

Star Wars

75272 - Sith TIE Fighter

75268 - Snowspeeder

75269 - Duel on Mustafar

75266 - Sith Troopers Battle Pack

75278 - D-O

75254 - AT-ST Raider

Super Heroes

76125 - Iron Man Hall of Armor

76150 - Spiderjet vs. Venom Mech

76141 - Thanos Mech

76143 - Avengers Truck Take-down

Super Mario

71371 - Propeller Mario Power-Up Pack

71366 - Boomer Bill Barrage Expansion Set

71373 - Builder Mario Power-Up Pack

71364 - Whomp's Lava Trouble Expansion Set

Technic

42092 - Rescue Helicopter

42093 - Chevrolet Corvette ZR1

[Dark Helmet]

I can’t tell are they thinking by summer or by end of year?

[LegoTriathlete]

34 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

I can’t tell are they thinking by summer or by end of year?

Also seems a bit light, considering the list from 2020 that still hasn’t technically come through for some of those sets in the US

[MotorCityMuscle]

I believe they were saying these sets are done in March. Could still be a summer and EOY retirement list. 

[nolan808]

54 minutes ago, MotorCityMuscle said:

I believe they were saying these sets are done in March. Could still be a summer and EOY retirement list. 

There's only a select few that are done in march and the rest by summer. Promobricks have put a star next to the ones that are likely to go at march. Nothings set in stone though. 

 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

also keep in mind, Stonewars list is based on their Germany retailers network; so the sets and timing applies to Germany.  obviously sets that retire there will EVENTUALLY retire worldwide but we've seen the lag timing being months to maybe a year 

[nolan808]

6 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

also keep in mind, Stonewars list is based on their Germany retailers network; so the sets and timing applies to Germany.  obviously sets that retire there will EVENTUALLY retire worldwide but we've seen the lag timing being months to maybe a year 

I agree and tbh I don't see these march sets just completely disappearing here in the UK. Although a lot of retailers here seem to have finished with quite a few sets already I feel as if Amazon and the Lego group will keep them going for a bit longer. Remember Stonewars have mentioned that it could be possible that the Lego group still continue to supply online. 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by raulaco

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 minute ago, raulaco said:

I agree and tbh I don't see these march sets just completely disappearing here in the UK. Although a lot of retailers here seem to have finished with quite a few sets already I feel as if Amazon and the Lego group will keep them going for a bit longer. 

4shure; unless you include Amazon into the "retailer network" for the info; a major player like them will drive the market. In the US Walmart and Target retirements are indicators; but Amazon "sets the price".

[joneyyy1981]

13 minutes ago, raulaco said:

I agree and tbh I don't see these march sets just completely disappearing here in the UK. Although a lot of retailers here seem to have finished with quite a few sets already I feel as if Amazon and the Lego group will keep them going for a bit longer. 

from how i am reading it, the stonewars list is march, you can see from the comments the expecting another mid season update, the promobricks is march/mid season retirments.

not much on it for me, but the jurassic stuff dries up overnight the last 2 years in the uk. you wont be finding baryonyx in july put it that way. 1 more run for the backorders. then bye bye.

 

and another thing, 1 mid seaon potter retirement, there is just silly amounts of potter sets, with another wave incoming. madness

Edited February 17, 2021 by joneyyy1981

[Brad W]

On 2/15/2021 at 3:00 PM, cladner said:

huge variability about when a set is labeled RETIRED across the world.  most sets that we expect in north america to be retired are already retired in eastern europe.   sets that are long ago retired in north america are listed as temporarily out of stock on australian shop at home.  eastern europe seems like it has its act together and has the retirements done the quickest.  not sure if that helps you at all or if you're just waiting for it to be retired in US so you can advertise it as RETIRED.  us shop at home likes to drag their feet - my theory is to discourage resellers from gobbling up last bits of retail stock when something goes to RETIRED.

lol, Thx. It helps a little. I'm just wondering if this delay is b/c of the pandemic, or normal? I've never paid much attention to actual retirement dates in LEGO as I usually wait a year or so before I start selling, but this year I may try to sell some right after retirement, so I'm checking weekly for retirements, and NADA. 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

6 minutes ago, Brad W said:

lol, Thx. It helps a little. I'm just wondering if this delay is b/c of the pandemic, or normal? I've never paid much attention to actual retirement dates in LEGO as I usually wait a year or so before I start selling, but this year I may try to sell some right after retirement, so I'm checking weekly for retirements, and NADA. 

why not just skip the middle man and just check Ebay sold prices?  If the price is right...sell Sell SELL!

[Brad W]

touche, It helps if you can add Retired to the title.