Retiring Soon - open speculation

[$20 on joe vs dan]

Just now, Bricklectic said:

Seems like people are worried about the restock. To me worst case scenario is that Lego made/found another 1k sets and is restocking AMZ/WM/SAH now. Can't imagine this is a massive restock. As pointed out, it's retired. Like $20 pointed out, SAH may not be poofing soon because weve all maxed out already. At AMZ/WM this would be gone in seconds. 

So its just an opportunity. Grab it while it lasts with some rinks if you have a F/F network that isnt tired out of buying for you.

even if it's a "massive restock" I don't see how it could be a loser (illusion of plentitude);

retirement in EU makes it eventually "done";

there's also a $50 release of the ship so LEGO ain't making a better version anytime soon;

and it's also timestamped as an anniversary set...with a unique anniversary MF. 

AND the freakin Book of Fett comes out in Dec.

I mean C'mon every single freakin box is checked and then some... 

[fourkidsbuilding]

Well, crap...looks like the 3 slave I found at target yesterday wasn't just a lucky fluke....oh well

Edit: These are popping back in stock at several Target stores in my area now...

Edited January 14, 2021 by fourkidsbuilding
new info

[eliminator]

Too bad it's still not reduced to 20% off. I've only bought two online, so I may as well grab another. 

[tyskr28]

 

2 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

even if it's a "massive restock" I don't see how it could be a loser (illusion of plentitude);

retirement in EU makes it eventually "done";

there's also a $50 release of the ship so LEGO ain't making a better version anytime soon;

and it's also timestamped as an anniversary set...with a unique anniversary MF. 

AND the freakin Book of Fett comes out in Dec.

I mean C'mon every single freakin box is checked and then some... 

So I just spoke to LEGO CS because I had a previous Slave I order still marked as waiting for  stock (from a Jan 10 inventory error) and had 3 in my order from this morning and didn't want it to get cancelled due to the limit. So just for everyones information, this looks like a pretty substantial restock in the US. It is also hitting Target shelves. I Agree with $20 on Joe vs Dan that this likely wont hurt the value of the set in the mid-long term but probably will have an effect on QFLLers out there. 

 

Also got my $5 shipping back on the holiday gift wrap from a cancelled Neb-b order 🙄

[$20 on joe vs dan]

42 minutes ago, tyskr28 said:

 

So I just spoke to LEGO CS because I had a previous Slave I order still marked as waiting for  stock (from a Jan 10 inventory error) and had 3 in my order from this morning and didn't want it to get cancelled due to the limit. So just for everyones information, this looks like a pretty substantial restock in the US. It is also hitting Target shelves. I Agree with $20 on Joe vs Dan that this likely wont hurt the value of the set in the mid-long term but probably will have an effect on QFLLers out there. 

 

Also got my $5 shipping back on the holiday gift wrap from a cancelled Neb-b order 🙄

not sure if it will take time for the re-stock to hit all target stores...a check just now in SF Bay Area...I'm guessing about 50 stores showing 1 store w/ limited stock

[gmpirate]

There were multiples listed at one store in my area but there were none there when I got there.  Only seeing one store with "limited availability".

[raindog]

1 hour ago, tyskr28 said:

 

So I just spoke to LEGO CS because I had a previous Slave I order still marked as waiting for  stock (from a Jan 10 inventory error) and had 3 in my order from this morning and didn't want it to get cancelled due to the limit. So just for everyones information, this looks like a pretty substantial restock in the US. It is also hitting Target shelves. I Agree with $20 on Joe vs Dan that this likely wont hurt the value of the set in the mid-long term but probably will have an effect on QFLLers out there. 

Well, the Slaves lasted a half day.  Sold Out again at LEGO Shop at Home.

Edited January 14, 2021 by raindog

[fourkidsbuilding]

28 minutes ago, raindog said:

Well, the Slaves lasted a half day.  Sold Out again at LEGO Shop at Home.

Nice...

[eliminator]

9 minutes ago, fourkidsbuilding said:

Nice...

Sweet. Glad I grabbed one...even at full price (with ice rink GWP)

Edited January 14, 2021 by eliminator

[$20 on joe vs dan]

6 minutes ago, eliminator said:

Sweet. Glad I grabbed one...even at full price (with ice rink GWP)

still a great price...rinks are going for $30ish and may keep climbing especially as a seasonal winter set...that's basically a 20% discount anyway

[fourkidsbuilding]

I managed to grab 6 slave I at target over the last couple days. I was starting to doubt those purchases. Nice that they are sold out again at SAH..

[LegoTriathlete]

Can someone please remind me if the gingerbread house is expected to retire soon?  I believe the fire house is on unofficial retirement Lists and I thought I saw at one time the gingerbread house may be going as well.  I believe folks have mentioned that LEGO usually keeps two bigger Xmas sets active each year and the gingerbread house is fairly recent.  It’s been OOS and wondering if I need to grab one soon or safe to wait on it?

[BillyBricks]

3 minutes ago, LegoTriathlete said:

Can someone please remind me if the gingerbread house is expected to retire soon?  I believe the fire house is on unofficial retirement Lists and I thought I saw at one time the gingerbread house may be going as well.  I believe folks have mentioned that LEGO usually keeps two bigger Xmas sets active each year and the gingerbread house is fairly recent.  It’s been OOS and wondering if I need to grab one soon or safe to wait on it?

Should be with us into this holiday season. 

[vasp]

10265 - Mustang about to hit its 2 year mark in March. With the new Ferrari launched, would 10265 be on its way out.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 hour ago, vasp said:

10265 - Mustang about to hit its 2 year mark in March. With the new Ferrari launched, would 10265 be on its way out.

The Ferrari is Technic; better example is the forthcoming white Porsche 911; but either way

It's just my thinking, but the Ford Mustang COULD BE in T1 territory

It's pretty close to perfection, iconic car and implementation. Gotta be real popular amongst LEGO and car fans. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by $20 on joe vs dan

[exracer327]

17 hours ago, LegoTriathlete said:

Can someone please remind me if the gingerbread house is expected to retire soon?  I believe the fire house is on unofficial retirement Lists and I thought I saw at one time the gingerbread house may be going as well.  I believe folks have mentioned that LEGO usually keeps two bigger Xmas sets active each year and the gingerbread house is fairly recent.  It’s been OOS and wondering if I need to grab one soon or safe to wait on it?

Always two (Creator Winter sets) there are, until next Christmas.  So around Christmas 2021 the Gingerbread House should retire.

[MrSam]

54 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

The Ferrari is Technic; better example is the forthcoming white Porsche 911; but either way

It's just my thinking, but the Ford Mustang COULD BE in T1 territory

It's pretty close to perfection, iconic car and implementation. Gotta be real popular amongst LEGO and car fans. 

I've got to agree on this. The mustang is probably the most impressive / loved vehicle they've done from my experience. I'd be surprised if it goes anytime soon. DB5 and the London Bus will be the first to go, I don't expect to see either of them of shelves by year end.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

13 minutes ago, exracer327 said:

Always two (Creator Winter sets) there are, until next Christmas.  So around Christmas 2021 the Gingerbread House should retire.

we all know that the Gingerbread House is basically a box of gold..right?

any sniff of a discount will sell-out in seconds until retirement...heck RRP now almost feels like 35% off (I'm pretty sure no one will mention this set in the "deals thread" or anywhere else)...betting almost every BPer here is looking to squirrel these away at RRP or less...

These went scarce in October of 2020 heading into the holidays...I'm betting by summer these will be virtually impossible to find for less than 30% OVER RRP

Edited January 15, 2021 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Captain_chaos]

The only trick with the Creator Expert vehicles is figuring out when they are going to retire. You'd have to be certifiable not to want to buy any of them.

[eliminator]

26 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

The only trick with the Creator Expert vehicles is figuring out when they are going to retire. You'd have to be certifiable not to want to buy any of them.

I missed out on the Mini Cooper. Just sorta went poof overnight. Never even got one to build for myself. I didn't make that mistake this time around with the T1 and especially the Beetle. 

[TheBrickClique]

2 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

we all know that the Gingerbread House is basically a box of gold..right?

any sniff of a discount will sell-out in seconds until retirement...heck RRP now almost feels like 35% off (I'm pretty sure no one will mention this set in the "deals thread" or anywhere else)...betting almost every BPer here is looking to squirrel these away at RRP or less...

These went scarce in October of 2020 heading into the holidays...I'm betting by summer these will be virtually impossible to find for less than 30% OVER RRP

I'm looking at my spreadsheet of past holiday sets and manufacturing codes.  Looks like they tend to turn the money-making machine on around WW37-ish and run through WW46-ish and then turn it on again for a week or so in February. 

The February run is probably to keep some stock for the mid-year demand, but it doesn't look like they produce any past mid-November.  Once that stock is out, it's for awhile unless Joe finds a palette they missed in the back. 

So, the best bet for any of the holiday sets is to stock-up continuously during the year you think it will retire. 

And best to sell any worthless gold coins you may have lying around and buy more Gingerbread Houses.  Personally, I store my Gingerbread Houses on Edsal racks made from solid gold.

 

[chinothegeeko]

I'm looking at my spreadsheet of past holiday sets and manufacturing codes.  Looks like they tend to turn the money-making machine on around WW37-ish and run through WW46-ish and then turn it on again for a week or so in February. 
The February run is probably to keep some stock for the mid-year demand, but it doesn't look like they produce any past mid-November.  Once that stock is out, it's for awhile unless Joe finds a palette they missed in the back. 
So, the best bet for any of the holiday sets is to stock-up continuously during the year you think it will retire. 
And best to sell any worthless gold coins you may have lying around and buy more Gingerbread Houses.  Personally, I store my Gingerbread Houses on Edsal racks made from solid gold.
 

Great info

[Captain_Obvious]

LEGO is accepting backorders on 21318 Tree House.

It is my duty to state the obvious...

https://www.lego.com/en-us/product/tree-house-21318?

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Captain_Obvious

[Tedron]

Lego 75254 only available on Lego .com with availability of 2 in uk. Prices in eBay at £60. Early retirement ? No longer available at John Lewis and in no smyths stores. 

[Bartat]

1 hour ago, Tedron said:

Lego 75254 only available on Lego .com with availability of 2 in uk. Prices in eBay at £60. Early retirement ? No longer available at John Lewis and in no smyths stores. 

Smyths also saying ‘Out 

of Stock. Expected in stock: No Longer Available’