Retiring Soon - open speculation

[hockeyweasel]

10 hours ago, Emvisawthatswho said:

Question about 71713 Ninjago Empire Dragon. Type in “retiring soon” on SAH - all the usual suspects there, some tagged most not. And this one shows up on page 2.

Thoughts?

Sometimes I think that means that in one of the regions it has the tag. If you are in the US, but you look at in Australia or Europe, you find that in one of those spots it has the retiring soon tag. Now I'm going to have to play around and see if I'm blowing smoke...

Yeah, so change the region to Australia and it's 'Retiring Soon.'

[Emvisawthatswho]

Sometimes I think that means that in one of the regions it has the tag. If you are in the US, but you look at in Australia or Europe, you find that in one of those spots it has the retiring soon tag. Now I'm going to have to play around and see if I'm blowing smoke...
Yeah, so change the region to Australia and it's 'Retiring Soon.'

Never thought of that - thanks!

I like this set for some reason. Dragon - check. Ninjago - check. Nice price point for buy in. Check.

[redcell]

15 hours ago, raulaco said:

Your hilarious another snarky comment. I'm done with brickpicker fed up with all the people like you. I understand now why many of the old time greats have left. 

 

The internet may not be for you if you can't take a little good natured ribbing.

[zaphoid]

41 minutes ago, redcell said:

The internet may not be for you if you can't take a little good natured ribbing.

 

[benjamin4172]

15 hours ago, zaphoid said:

RE: Harry Potter Great Hall and Whomping Willow, I had figured that LEGO wouldn't retire any of the "connecting" castle sets until they've had a chance to release everything that connected.  So pushing back the retirement date makes me really hope there's another castle piece coming.

Yeah I thought that Lego wants to give average Joes Mom the opportunity to buy the great Hall a last time for this Christmas.

Something else on my mind: Is it really important if the Great hall goes this Christmas or during the next Year..the oppurtunity for Resellers to fill in the production gap will be there...and the first "good opportunity" to sell will be Xmas 21/22 either way..or am I completely wrong?....(of course only if theres no covid 20 or 21...)

[zaphoid]

8 minutes ago, benjamin4172 said:

....(of course only if theres no covid 20 or 21...)

I'm fighting off the COVID-20 now.  Fall is coming and I need my jeans to fit. 😁😁

[landphieran]

21 minutes ago, benjamin4172 said:

Yeah I thought that Lego wants to give average Joes Mom the opportunity to buy the great Hall a last time for this Christmas.

Something else on my mind: Is it really important if the Great hall goes this Christmas or during the next Year..the oppurtunity for Resellers to fill in the production gap will be there...and the first "good opportunity" to sell will be Xmas 21/22 either way..or am I completely wrong?....(of course only if theres no covid 20 or 21...)

Its slated for Mid year retirement, but it could get pushed back again (I'm assuming it goes end of next year). 

In my opinion, yes its a big deal. A retirement this year with limited output capacity would most likely put into quick 100% profit territory. With it retiring next year sometime. I'd guess its going to be late 2022 before decent gains will be seen. I'll probably skip this unless I can get some good discounts.

[benjamin4172]

42095 Stunt Racer wont go either this year. now dec 21

 

Source...like always

Edited September 21, 2020 by benjamin4172

[Emvisawthatswho]

Yeah I thought that Lego wants to give average Joes Mom the opportunity to buy the great Hall a last time for this Christmas.
Something else on my mind: Is it really important if the Great hall goes this Christmas or during the next Year..the oppurtunity for Resellers to fill in the production gap will be there...and the first "good opportunity" to sell will be Xmas 21/22 either way..or am I completely wrong?....(of course only if theres no covid 20 or 21...)

[KingKiwi]

It's easier getting classified information from the Chinese and North Korea governments than getting retirement dates or production volumes from Lego. This alone tells me that resellers could be the largest proportion of Lego's customer base. Therefore, it beggars belief why Lego would resurrect the Saturn V when there's so many superb submitted ideas to chose from. I've not seen the latest John Lewis wholesale list, but have been told that the 10220 VW T1 is still on the current and next editions. It's a great set and a great seller, so why not keep it going?

The "Retiring Soon" tag isn't on as many sets in 2020 as there was in 2019 in the UK. COVID-19 has put everything up in the air and I'm not going to base any sales or purchase on suspected retirements at this time.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 hour ago, BorderTerrier said:

It's easier getting classified information from the Chinese and North Korea governments than getting retirement dates or production volumes from Lego. This alone tells me that resellers could be the largest proportion of Lego's customer base. Therefore, it beggars belief why Lego would resurrect the Saturn V when there's so many superb submitted ideas to chose from. I've not seen the latest John Lewis wholesale list, but have been told that the 10220 VW T1 is still on the current and next editions. It's a great set and a great seller, so why not keep it going?

The "Retiring Soon" tag isn't on as many sets in 2020 as there was in 2019 in the UK. COVID-19 has put everything up in the air and I'm not going to base any sales or purchase on suspected retirements at this time.

TLG decisions and actions are baffling. 

It's no wonder the first questions for any new BPers is something in lines to "how do you know when a set will retire?"

Some find this part of the "game" and necessary to some extent.

[Bricklectic]

1 hour ago, BorderTerrier said:

It's easier getting classified information from the Chinese and North Korea governments than getting retirement dates or production volumes from Lego. This alone tells me that resellers could be the largest proportion of Lego's customer base. Therefore, it beggars belief why Lego would resurrect the Saturn V when there's so many superb submitted ideas to chose from. I've not seen the latest John Lewis wholesale list, but have been told that the 10220 VW T1 is still on the current and next editions. It's a great set and a great seller, so why not keep it going?

The "Retiring Soon" tag isn't on as many sets in 2020 as there was in 2019 in the UK. COVID-19 has put everything up in the air and I'm not going to base any sales or purchase on suspected retirements at this time.

Great point. In this day and age where secrets don't exist and everything is leaked and published everywhere. There is still a bastion of tightly and successfully guarded secrets over at the Lego Group. 

Perhaps they should be hired at the Pentagon.

[brickohaulic]

Agreed. Although I did pick up some Las Vegas sets the other day, plus Diners. 

[KingKiwi]

Just now, brickohaulic said:

Agreed. Although I did pick up some Las Vegas sets the other day, plus Diners. 

21047 Las Vegas is a no brainer. I think it'll do well since the RRP (in the UK) was £34.99 and other cities are £44.99 up. People buying after EOL may not be aware of the lower RRP.

[joneyyy1981]

28 minutes ago, BorderTerrier said:

21047 Las Vegas is a no brainer. I think it'll do well since the RRP (in the UK) was £34.99 and other cities are £44.99 up. People buying after EOL may not be aware of the lower RRP.

Stay away from Vegas architecture.

[KingKiwi]

19 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Stay away from Vegas architecture.

Why? Don't you have enough yet?

[Topher27]

4 hours ago, BorderTerrier said:

21047 Las Vegas is a no brainer. I think it'll do well since the RRP (in the UK) was £34.99 and other cities are £44.99 up. People buying after EOL may not be aware of the lower RRP.

What do you think of 21034 London? Do you think it will retire any time soon?

[$20 on joe vs dan]

with every hot commodity (no brainer) there will be a counter that is equally deflating (see Saturn V)...it's like an ocean wave...and some here think Architecture wave has already crested and will come crashing.

[joneyyy1981]

12 hours ago, BorderTerrier said:

Why? Don't you have enough yet?

exactly.

[KingKiwi]

9 hours ago, Topher27 said:

What do you think of 21034 London? Do you think it will retire any time soon?

It's slated to retire next year, but since in contains Tower Bridge, I don't think you have to worry for many, many years. When it does eventually retire, it's the skyline of the most visited city on Earth 😉

But, we all know that it can return within months of EOL - LOL.

[raindog]

24 minutes ago, BorderTerrier said:

... it's the skyline of the most visited city on Earth 😉

 

Sorry but both Hong Kong and Bangkok (and by some accounts, Paris) are more visited.

 

[joneyyy1981]

3 minutes ago, raindog said:

Sorry but both Hong Kong and Bangkok (and by some accounts, Paris) are more visited.

 

yea, i'd buy the bangkok & hong Kong skylines then.

 

lol

[thebrickdad]

10 hours ago, Topher27 said:

What do you think of 21034 London? Do you think it will retire any time soon?

Hopefully 😁

[Hammers33]

On 9/20/2020 at 12:55 AM, joneyyy1981 said:

so just see this on a forum.

 

(talking about Diner) - Don't worry, it's not retiring this year, it's marked for December 2021, but is likely to be extended beyond that due to COVID-19.

(talking about bell boeing) - re release (pushed back from December due to COVID-19). Lego are releasing it then with the gearing modification and will remove the Boeing logo from the box, keeping just Bell. 

Lego have had to lay off 25% of their design team and 15% of senior factory staff which limits capacity for new designs and production. Re-releasing popular retired sets is the new strategy for the next 3-4 years while the World recovers from COVID-19. As far as I'm aware, the following themes are have some immunity from imminent re-release:

City
Friends
Ninjago (except 70618 Destiny's Bounty which resumes production in July 2021)
Star Wars (except UCS R2-D2 in new black AFOL "Master Builder Series" box)
Architecture (except Buckingham Palace to complement London Skyline and Trafalgar Square)
Speed Champions twin packs (the retired 6-stud cars will now become 8-stud starting next Easter, Bugatti being the first)
Harry Potter (all sets due to retire this year have been extended for another year, 2 years for Hogwarts Express)

This week marks the 2,000,000th 10220 VW T1 Camper left the production line, apparently over 1,500,000 are in the hands of buyers who bought multiples, go figure.

Even though it's 3 years behind schedule, the previously unknown "Lego Again" project will be live around Xmas 2021. This promises to supply any retired set that Lego has produced in the past, put the pieces in a plain box and have printed artwork on one side only to make production easier. There will be a 4-6 week wait for the requested set and the RRP will be today's equivalent. The top 10 sellers in this project will then be re-released in their former glory with the same artwork as before. The re-release of the Saturn V has shocked a lot of people (even me!), but it's only the start of what is to come. Senior Lego management state that over 75% of popular sets end up in the hands of greedy resellers, leaving Joe Public without the set they want, unless they pay over the odds for one on eBay - this is why Lego have finally decided to eliminate the reseller market as it's more of a threat to their brand than Chinese knock-offs.

Lego have now asked John Lewis to reduce their maximum order limit on popular sets from 5 to 2. Smyths, Amazon and The Hut Group will also be amending their limits.

The final nail in the resellers' coffin will be eBay introducing "gating" (Amazon has it) which means that you have to be an authorised Lego retailer before you can sell multiples of the same set as new, even if days or weeks apart. It's all part of the plan to expand there retailer network and wipe out resellers.

 

 

think the blokes nuts myself, he lost me at 2 million VW's...

so what is the consensus on this guys statements? I only started collecting in May this year so I've not sold anything yet but I have an Osprey to sell.. I'd sell it right now but I think I need a few other sales on my ebay before selling this.. About to start selling off a few small sets for numbers. but in reality surely the Boeing coming back is quite plausible?  I don't know enough about all this yet but if everything else he says is true then this is obviously huge. 

[Dittobrick]

Steamboat "Sold Out" - Maybe a set that is actually retiring this year?