Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Ciglione]

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

And who would go to BL to buy this set when it's available at retail?

Come on Philly. You should know better.

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, Ciglione said:

Come on Philly. You should know better.

We could say the same about Ecto 1 but look, people actually buy it on BL!

[Ciglione]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

We could say the same about Ecto 1 but look, people actually buy it on BL!

Cause Ecto-1 is a quality set that everybody knows. The maze is just lame.

I have several lego chess sets MISB with tons of neat minifigures in it that I cannot even get rid of. 

[cladner]

Ed Mack at one point in 2014 posted that the GE was the most hoarded set.  I remember because it was my most hoarded set at the time and I felt a twinge in my gut.  That investment has turned out fine.  PS will make money too, it will just take longer for several reasons.  

Looks like Cindy castle is about to go - OOS for shipping at target, down to $45.59 with instore pickup.  trying to decide if i should put anymore money in this set since i can get it at a nearby tax free target for $43.31.  

I have zero Maze's and am not going to buy any without at least a 20% discount.  It looks like a cool set to build and maybe to part out but giving me the exo-suit vibe.

[Val-E]

Yeah, I´m out for 10. Gonna cancel that order I made yesterday, it´s way too dodgy.

Just now, cladner said:

Ed Mack at one point in 2014 posted that the GE was the most hoarded set.  I remember because it was my most hoarded set at the time and I felt a twinge in my gut.  That investment has turned out fine.  PS will make money too, it will just take longer for several reasons.  

Looks like Cindy castle is about to go - OOS for shipping at target, down to $45.59 with instore pickup.  trying to decide if i should put anymore money in this set since i can get it at a nearby tax free target for $43.31.  

I have zero Maze's and am not going to buy any without at least a 20% discount.  It looks like a cool set to build and maybe to part out but giving me the exo-suit vibe.

Exo suit vibe: It´s even the right colour.

[exciter1]

12 minutes ago, cladner said:

Ed Mack at one point in 2014 posted that the GE was the most hoarded set.  I remember because it was my most hoarded set at the time and I felt a twinge in my gut.  That investment has turned out fine.  PS will make money too, it will just take longer for several reasons.  

Looks like Cindy castle is about to go - OOS for shipping at target, down to $45.59 with instore pickup.  trying to decide if i should put anymore money in this set since i can get it at a nearby tax free target for $43.31.  

I have zero Maze's and am not going to buy any without at least a 20% discount.  It looks like a cool set to build and maybe to part out but giving me the exo-suit vibe.

You missed the $48 Maze blowout at Amazon?

[BrickLegacy]

1 minute ago, exciter1 said:

You missed the $48 Maze blowout at Amazon?

I didn't ... and regret not picking up one for personal build.  I'll try and pick up one with the snowglobe later this month.

[exciter1]

3 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

I didn't ... and regret not picking up one for personal build.  I'll try and pick up one with the snowglobe later this month.

I couldn't help myself, as usual.

[asharerin]

1 hour ago, mauro23 said:

Is Fire Brigade not bringing double MSRP already? 

Will Grand Emporeum not bringing double MSRP in one year?

In the USA double MSRP after fees and shipping would mean $370-$380 for PS. Never going to happen for PS in 3 years. I expect it to be $199-$249 shipped for many years to come. Now if you are talking double buy in that may be possible for PS if you bought sub $100 because many were fooled into buying at close to MSRP. But this is not going to happen with PC because now we all know to wait to buy it this time next year for below $120. So PC is likely to stay around $170 shipped for many years. Can you see where this trend is going? 

These days if there is easy money to be made selling anything online (not just Lego) the window closes very fast. Expecting to not have to adjust you game plan every 12-18 months means you plan is seriously flawed and you will have your behind handed to you.

[TANV]

1 minute ago, asharerin said:

In the USA double MSRP after fees and shipping would mean $370-$380 for PS. Never going to happen for PS in 3 years. I expect it to be $199-$249 shipped for many years to come. Now if you are talking double buy in that may be possible for PS if you bought sub $100 because many were fooled into buying at close to MSRP. But this is not going to happen with PC because now we all know to wait to buy it this time next year for below $120. So PC is likely to stay around $170 shipped for many years. Can you see where this trend is going? 

These days if there is easy money to be made selling anything online (not just Lego) the window closes very fast. Expecting to not have to adjust you game plan every 12-18 months means you plan is seriously flawed and you will have your behind handed to you.

Well, it seems like the LEGO selling market pretty much is a-changing. Maybe it's time to refocus on the original purpose of LEGO: fun and play.

[biking_tiger]

I don't want to start a debate about the word "investing" in regard to Lego (again), but there's a big difference between the time frame of investments vs. arbitrage/flipping. Yes, the online selling is a gold rush right now, but not many have patience for the big payoff. I only call something an investment if I'm willing to hold it for five years. What are you willing to hold for five years? 

I stand by my assertion that the rate of "arbitrage" online has changed the Lego landscape more than anything--and it isn't just Lego reselling. It's everything. I've only been a member here for a little under 2 1/2 years, but the conversation and focus on flipping has shifted even in that time. Either everyone wants the quick money, or the long term folks are just keeping quiet. 

Edited November 15, 2016 by biking_tiger

[Ciglione]

Well... Last week I did a fast analysis. I compared the sets I've sold the last three years and of which I have none left at the moment with the prices I would have gotten for these sets now. The results were surprising. Most prices remained the same or even fell.

There were only a few exceptions. For example 6866 Wolverine. Which to my knowledge never was marked as a long-term investment. 

[mauro23]

1 minute ago, Ciglione said:

Well... Last week I did a fast analysis. I compared the sets I've sold the last three years and of which I have none left at the moment with the prices I would have gotten for these sets now. The results were surprising. Most prices remained the same or even fell.

There were only a few exceptions. For example 6866 Wolverine. Which to my knowledge never was marked as a long-term investment. 

The problem is, as I have said already several times, that LEGO brings to much new sets and the normal buyer has to decide to buy a new set at MSRP or an old similar set at double or more MSRP.

The most of them decide to buy the newer set, likely with a better building technique etc... 

[Ciglione]

1 minute ago, mauro23 said:

The problem is, as I have said already several times, that LEGO brings to much new sets and the normal buyer has to decide to buy a new set at MSRP or an old similar set at double or more MSRP.

The most of them decide to buy the newer set, likely with a better building technique etc... 

Maybe...

But the worst problem is that with the influx of investors the amount of sealed sets have rosen dramatically. It goes from one investor to the other. Remaining sealed. Cause who dares to open such an expensive set? 

Let's be honoust here. How many sealed 10030 Star Destroyers were out there when it retired? There's your answer.

That is also the secret to the succes of the Mars Rover. Well known to you.

[KShine]

27 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

I don't want to start a debate about the word "investing" in regard to Lego (again), but there's a big difference between the time frame of investments vs. arbitrage/flipping. Yes, the online selling is a gold rush right now, but not many have patience for the big payoff. I only call something an investment if I'm willing to hold it for five years. What are you willing to hold for five years? 

I stand by my assertion that the rate of "arbitrage" online has changed the Lego landscape more than anything--and it isn't just Lego reselling. It's everything. I've only been a member here for a little under 2 1/2 years, but the conversation and focus on flipping has shifted even in that time. Either everyone wants the quick money, or the long term folks are just keeping quiet. 

Unfortunately, you can safely look at Lego sets as having an expiration date nowadays (with the ever possible rehashes/rereleases, etc).

The theory of hold forever, and just watch the values rise no longer really applies.

[HandyHand]

@Alpinemaps @exciter1 I think there's a risk this topic is deteriorating into another "bubble thread".  

Let's keep it at looking for, and mentioning the retiring sets here!

[Ciglione]

6 minutes ago, Haay said:

@Alpinemaps @exciter1 I think there's a risk this topic is deteriorating into another "bubble thread".  

Let's keep it at looking for, and mentioning the retiring sets here!

Volunteer to become a moderator. You will have a blast.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Ciglione

[GhostDad]

Selling for 2 x MSRP after fees is a tall order.  But after about 18 months post-retirement, I had sold all my GE's for an average price of $290 + shipping.  So about $255 after fees.  Even on the handful where I paid $150 + tax, I made about $90 profit on the half hour or so that went into very carefully packaging and mailing each set.

Pet Shop is not going to do that.  There have been too many false retirements that prompted resellers (including me) to load up on them.  I don't think it will be remade, but even another modular house could hurt its appreciation.  If you own the set, I wouldn't be selling now and trying to compete with Lego.  But I wouldn't buy it for anything near MSRP either.

[Ed Mack]

The 10218 Pet Shop is now the most stockpiled set.

[Ciglione]

Just now, Ed Mack said:

The 10218 Pet Shop is now the most stockpiled set.

Thanks Ed.

Now what do we do?

[Sprocket77]

3 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

The 10218 Pet Shop is now the most stockpiled set.

[gbg108]

Just now, Ciglione said:

Thanks Ed.

Now what do we do?

Obviously buy more PC and PR. Records were made to be broken.

[CrabslayerT]

2 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Thanks Ed.

Now what do we do?

Build a very large petshop. 

[Fenix_2k1]

4 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Thanks Ed.

Now what do we do?

PANIC SELL!!!!!!

Race to the bottom starts now!

[Ciglione]

Just now, CrabslayerT said:

Build a very large petshop. 

Well... at least the Pet Shop is one set you can use multiples in a city setup. Just like Grand Emporium.