Retiring Soon - open speculation

[GhostDad]

2 hours ago, Sfcommando14 said:

Even if that's true, there is still the problem if the investors who bought them for the first 2 years of the run...

It's hard to say.  Even after being produced for a zillion years, 10188 was profitable when bought at MSRP until the remake came along.  Assuming we don't get a 'new' Pet Shop six months from now, there's probably a little tiny profit to be had in the next year or so, but there's lots of other stuff I would buy instead at this point.

[33Lego]

if there were no re-make, 10188 probably is hitting $800 by now.

[Brickbuilder.g]

if there were no re-make, 10188 probably is hitting $800 by now.

Mmmm...that's a little rich. Maybe $650 at best.

[Sfcommando14]

49 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

It's hard to say.  Even after being produced for a zillion years, 10188 was profitable when bought at MSRP until the remake came along.  Assuming we don't get a 'new' Pet Shop six months from now, there's probably a little tiny profit to be had in the next year or so, but there's lots of other stuff I would buy instead at this point.

Apples and oranges.  10188 retires and there is no other way to get a Death Star.  Pet Shop retires and there are 5 other modulars to buy from retailers at or below retail price, counting the upcoming release.

[Brian Briggs]

Grand Emporium hasn't reached double RRP here, and that set retired two years ago. This doesn't make me very hopeful for Pet Shop appreciating nicely after its retirement although I hope I'm wrong in this case. The "retiring soon" tag isn't helping either.

[mauro23]

51 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

Grand Emporium hasn't reached double RRP here, and that set retired two years ago. This doesn't make me very hopeful for Pet Shop appreciating nicely after its retirement although I hope I'm wrong in this case. The "retiring soon" tag isn't helping either.

Brian, let's assume that every year a modular building is retired.

You could have following investment strategy selling modulars at double MSRP:

2012 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -1500

2013 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -3000

2014 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -4500

2015 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -6000 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> -3000

2016 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -4500 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> -1500

2017 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -3000 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> 0

2018 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -1500 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> +1500

2019 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> 0 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> +3000 

As you can see, after 5 years you have compensated your expenses, after 7 years you have a nice additional income already...

Edited November 15, 2016 by mauro23

[ZULU]

3 hours ago, Sfcommando14 said:

Apples and oranges.  10188 retires and there is no other way to get a Death Star.  Pet Shop retires and there are 5 other modulars to buy from retailers at or below retail price, counting the upcoming release.

How many modulars do you need? And how many will TLG keep alive? 

A discussion we held years ago... 

PS has such a huge stock at resellers it will take years to deplete and make a profit. I don't understand why it still stirs interest here. I'm trying to sell mine at rrp - nobody wants it. This modular is dead.

...

in terms if retirements, i don't really care what is in/out much more. Just buying sets that fit my criteria at min. -40% is the only game left for me. Which means buying barely anything actually this year. In fact, I've invested for less 2000e this year. And this will be probably it except for some rare opportunity. (Not counting the boxes I bought for my kids)

The times i was tempted to invest into something closer to msrp, I managed to step away. And every time I was happy I did. 

[Sprocket77]

8 hours ago, exciter1 said:

Oh my God, it all becomes clear.

Ironbrick = Trump

[Val-E]

Based on past experience, last production runs of retiring sets have now finished so sets with seals later than week 46 are sticking around. It might be worth having a look at any deliveries from SAH. From week 47 onwards, they gear up production of the new stuff that will be on shelves or at least sent to retailers for the last week of the year.

[Infiltrator]

Ideas MAZE is sold out at LEGO Shop at Home Austria since today. *yay*
No labeling of restocking. Hope that's the final tag?!

@Val-E
Got my Amazon.de delivery of a retiring 75135 from my prime order yesterday - SEAL CODE: 46S6

Edited November 15, 2016 by Infiltrator

[Therightbruno]

Maze sold out everywhere at SAH in Europe 

Luckily bought 2 from Amazon.de yesterday at 70 euro - anyone else too?

[Brian Briggs]

5 hours ago, mauro23 said:

Brian, let's assume that every year a modular building is retired.

You could have following investment strategy selling modulars at double MSRP:

2012 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -1500

2013 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -3000

2014 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -4500

2015 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -6000 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> -3000

2016 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -4500 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> -1500

2017 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -3000 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> 0

2018 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> -1500 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> +1500

2019 - Buy 10 modulars (150 x 10 = 1500) --> 0 and Sell 10 modulars (300 x 10 = 3000) --> +3000 

As you can see, after 5 years you have compensated your expenses, after 7 years you have a nice additional income already...

So you're assuming that you'll always get 2xRRP (after expenses!) when you sell the modulars three years after purchasing them during their final year of production. Are you sure this will be doable in the forthcoming years?

59 minutes ago, Therightbruno said:

Maze sold out everywhere at SAH in Europe 

Luckily bought 2 from Amazon.de yesterday at 70 euro - anyone else too?

I bought one copy myself when it was still in stock and used that opportunity to use a voucher I still had.

[mauro23]

Is Fire Brigade not bringing double MSRP already? 

Will Grand Emporeum not bringing double MSRP in one year?

Regarding Amazon - what is the status of the item? Tehy still mention they will got more into the stock what I cannot believe...

[Deanfjr]

This seems like a better option if you want a labyrinth:

 

[Brian Briggs]

1 minute ago, mauro23 said:

Is Fire Brigade not bringing double MSRP already?

Sure, it does.

1 minute ago, mauro23 said:

Will Grand Emporeum not bringing double MSRP in one year?

Maybe, maybe not. Who knows what will happen to that set next year. I'm just not sure you can extrapolate the data available for Fire Brigade and base your expectations on those older modulars.

[Ciglione]

Fire Brigade has dropped in value. To my knowledge. 

[fantomas007]

3 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Is Fire Brigade not bringing double MSRP already? 

Will Grand Emporeum not bringing double MSRP in one year?

 

These days are over. Fire Brigade is the last set not so hoarded. The GE reached 1.8x MRSP after 2 years, now is a little bellow this (1.7x). Pet shop is massively hoarded and is extremly long on shelves. Almost everybody is now investing in modulars, every newbie is starting his bussiness with these sets. I expect first jump after EOL to EUR 170-180, then same level till the end of first year, EUR 200 in 2 years, and then small rise till around EUR 300 (after many years). I think the real ceiling for new modulars is EUR 300 after many years... they are massively hoarded + too many modulars already produced, so people will start to choose the best, not buying all. They are not under pressure to have them all, like SW fans, since they are just building without specified bonus. There is still some place for nice profit, if you dont expect much  - if you buy a modular with some discount (EUR 120) just before the EOL and sell after 2 years for EUR 200, its still more than bank interests... The hardest thing is to know, when is a modular finishing, if they dont put a "retiring soon" tag. Because if you buy a modular in 2016, which is in sale from 2013 and you expect the end, but TLG will be selling it for more 2 years till 2018, you are in very bad situation - you must hold the set 4-5 years to sell it for just 50-70 % profit (i.e. around 10 % per year).

[waddamon]

The fire brigade was the most horded modular.  Do your research.

[Val-E]

Spaceport 60080 C2C

[Val-E]

57 minutes ago, Deanfjr said:

This seems like a better option if you want a labyrinth:

 

It may even be a better investment opportunity. What if the only people that bought Maze were reseller scum on the first day and now that it is about to retire?

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Therightbruno said:

Maze sold out everywhere at SAH in Europe 

Luckily bought 2 from Amazon.de yesterday at 70 euro - anyone else too?

Did you check BL sales over the last 6 months? Lucky is maybe the wrong word considering it has sold 1 unit in USD in the last 6 months and 1 unit in all of August, September and October in Europe.

[Ciglione]

Just now, Val-E said:

Did you check BL sales over the last 6 months? Lucky is maybe the wrong word considering it has sold 1 unit in USD in the last 6 months and 1 unit in all of August, September and October in Europe.

 

[KShine]

49 minutes ago, waddamon said:

The fire brigade was the most horded modular.  Do your research.

Not really - Do you realize how many more sellers exist now compared to when this one was out?

[Phil B]

9 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Did you check BL sales over the last 6 months? Lucky is maybe the wrong word considering it has sold 1 unit in USD in the last 6 months and 1 unit in all of August, September and October in Europe.

And who would go to BL to buy this set when it's available at retail?

[Val-E]

5 minutes ago, KShine said:

Not really - Do you realize how many more sellers exist now compared to when this one was out?

It WAS the most hoarded set. Right now, just about anything beats it. The Ecto 1 to FB ratio would be interesting.

1 minute ago, Phil B said:

And who would go to BL to buy this set when it's available at retail?

Money launderers, insane/valued customers, people who want to Mod it and get the item and the parts from the same seller, people  who don´t use SAH or have access to any other retailers. The list goes on but the stats are not great.