Retiring Soon - open speculation

[asharerin]

4 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

Didn't someone recently post that TLG was going to do a major makeover this year? Maybe cleaning house is part of that process?

Let's just hope it has nothing to do with the Lego Again program we have been hearing about. All I have heard are rumors and I hope they are all wrong. Still I am not taking anymore risks on this product. Something does not feel right at all.

[Ciglione]

5 minutes ago, asharerin said:

Let's just hope it has nothing to do with the Lego Again program we have been hearing about. All I have heard are rumors and I hope they are all wrong. Still I am not taking anymore risks on this product. Something does not feel right at all.

Give me one good reason why they would not do it?

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Give me one good reason why they would not do it?

1) Lepin got there first

2) It devalues the brand

By trimming the line they are going back to the exclusivity element we all desired.

[asharerin]

Just now, Val-E said:

1) Lepin got there first

2) It devalues the brand

By trimming the line they are going back to the exclusivity element we all desired.

Let's all hope so. The alternative is very bleak.

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, asharerin said:

Let's all hope so. The alternative is very bleak.

I am a founding member of the Pessimism in Lego Investment focus group, remember?

The value of retired sets will continue to slide until oversupply is absorbed and that will take years. At least if Lego cut their lines now, there is hope for the medium-long term once the part-time investors have given up and sold out.

Neither R2D2 nor Town Hall will be 600 USD sets in the near future but things couldn´t go on the way they were.

Edited November 11, 2016 by Val-E

[kumas]

seems someone pushed too many buttons, 45150 Vader's TIE Advanced vs. A-Wing Starfighter retiring here - > no way

[Ciglione]

8 minutes ago, Val-E said:

1) Lepin got there first

2) It devalues the brand

By trimming the line they are going back to the exclusivity element we all desired.

1) Lepin will become irrelevant. Due to the new factory in China Lego can produce much cheaper. Transportation will cost them much less when using the new silk route. Lepin now is producing with a very low profit margin. But with many producers, once they have set foot on the ground prices will go up. Look at Kia or Dacia.

2) Lepin is already devaluating the brand. Just like the remakes (DS).

Edited November 11, 2016 by Ciglione

[biking_tiger]

7 minutes ago, Val-E said:

1) Lepin got there first

2) It devalues the brand

By trimming the line they are going back to the exclusivity element we all desired.

Not to mention the manufacturing cost would increase significantly. 

[Val-E]

I think it comes down to shelf space. At Xmas time there are too many brands and items competing for limited shelf space and Lego just has too many references. Shops will only want to stock the sure fire sellers. TLG already had problems 20 years ago with this so they are probably cutting back and focussing on the most popular and profitable lines.

[pete411]

Regarding the Lego Again rumors, I just don't see how they can pull it off. It would be some feat to be able to change production between hundreds of sets on the fly like that. Shortened lifespans on Lego's regular sets has been apparent starting from last year (Ant-Man, Ultra Agents, Raptor Escape). I just think that Lego has so many sets coming down the pipeline that keeping an inventory of hundreds of sets doesn't make sense for them anymore. If it's a stinker, get rid of it. Why keep a set around for two years if it only starts selling again when it's cleared out or slapped with a retiring soon label? I think they've discovered that pumping out wave after wave of sets, with each one creating a spike in demand, is the better strategy for them.

[Ciglione]

4 minutes ago, pete411 said:

Regarding the Lego Again rumors, I just don't see how they can pull it off. It would be some feat to be able to change production between hundreds of sets on the fly like that. Shortened lifespans on Lego's regular sets has been apparent starting from last year (Ant-Man, Ultra Agents, Raptor Escape). I just think that Lego has so many sets coming down the pipeline that keeping an inventory of hundreds of sets doesn't make sense for them anymore. If it's a stinker, get rid of it. Why keep a set around for two years if it only starts selling again when it's cleared out or slapped with a retiring soon label? I think they've discovered that pumping out wave after wave of sets, with each one creating a spike in demand, is the better strategy for them.

Why not? If they get a pre-order for 5000 Town Halls? That is a sure sale at RRP or above.

[c_rpg]

I'm also sceptic about the whole Lego Again thing. TLG's business model is based around mass production. The rumors said something about being able to buy any retired set you want and you'd get it in 30 days. There's no way they can make that cost efficiently.

I can however, see something similar to the Lego Ideas concept, where you can vote on sets that need to be re-released. Every set that gets 10000 votes would be considered by Lego and then possibly be re-released. That way they would have control over the whole thing and could sort of minimize cannibalism. This scenario would be a disaster for anyone going all-in on sets.

[biking_tiger]

1 minute ago, c_rpg said:

I'm also sceptic about the whole Lego Again thing. TLG's business model is based around mass production. The rumors said something about being able to buy any retired set you want and you'd get it in 30 days. There's no way they can make that cost efficiently.

I can however, see something similar to the Lego Ideas concept, where you can vote on sets that need to be re-released. Every set that gets 10000 votes would be considered by Lego and then possibly be re-released. That way they would have control over the whole thing and could sort of minimize cannibalism. This scenario would be a disaster for anyone going all-in on sets.

Now that makes a scary amount of sense. 

[Ciglione]

Why did Lego add the feature to put retired sets on your wish list? Just for fun?

[Fenix_2k1]

11 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Why not? If they get a pre-order for 5000 Town Halls? That is a sure sale at RRP or above.

But where would that order come from. If you can get a set any time you like what's the rush? and if it has a massively reduced resale value would you spend the £200+ it would cost. 

As others have said.  This is standard EOL volumes. The difference is that they have stuck the tag on. Why? because of resellers.  they will have spotted the pattern from previous years.  if a tag goes on the stock goes quicker. Only they picked the wrong year to start it because the horde is wary and worried. 

 

[Ciglione]

11 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

But where would that order come from. If you can get a set any time you like what's the rush? and if it has a massively reduced resale value would you spend the £200+ it would cost. 

As others have said.  This is standard EOL volumes. The difference is that they have stuck the tag on. Why? because of resellers.  they will have spotted the pattern from previous years.  if a tag goes on the stock goes quicker. Only they picked the wrong year to start it because the horde is wary and worried. 

 

I know alot of people who missed Town Hall. They are not willing to spend 400 or 500 euro to get one. But 200 euro is acceptable. 

Secondly... you never buy a new car? Does a car not have a massively reduced resale value? Other toys also do not have a resale value like lego does. But still it is bought.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Ciglione

[c_rpg]

4 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

I know alot of people who missed Town Hall. They are not willing to spend 400 or 500 euro to get one. But 200 euro is acceptable. 

Yeah, but the point is they can do it for one set but not for all sets. The appeal for Town Hall is partly because of the fact that it's no longer available. Why would I buy Parisian Restaurant when I can get it at any time? There's the initial appeal of a set where it's new and people want it NOW and they are willing to pay RRP or more, but after that there's no rush. TLG is interested in selling their new products first and foremost. They want to increase sales or at the very least keep them steady.

If they made every set available just like that you'd just end up with an ever growing catalog of products and people would buy more and more different products. This is not what TLG wants. They want that as many people as possible buy the same product. That way they can maximize profits with mass producing the sets. They'd rather have 1000 people buying Parisian Restaurant than 100 Palace Cinemas, 200 Pet Shops, 200 Parisian Restaurants, 200 Detective Offices and 300 Brick Banks.

 

[pete411]

10 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

I know alot of people who missed Town Hall. They are not willing to spend 400 or 500 euro to get one. But 200 euro is acceptable. 

Secondly... you never buy a new car? Does a car not have a massively reduced resale value? Other toys also do not have a resale value like lego does. But still it is bought.

Sure there are a few sets that people would be willing to buy for RRP plus a service charge but does it make sense for random Nexo Knights, City or Duplo sets? That's the bulk of the 300 sets that are marked as retiring soon. I don't see an on demand market for those.

[Ciglione]

3 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

Yeah, but the point is they can do it for one set but not for all sets. The appeal for Town Hall is partly because of the fact that it's no longer available. Why would I buy Parisian Restaurant when I can get it at any time? There's the initial appeal of a set where it's new and people want it NOW and they are willing to pay RRP or more, but after that there's no rush. TLG is interested in selling their new products first and foremost. They want to increase sales or at the very least keep them steady.

If they made every set available just like that you'd just end up with an ever growing catalog of products and people would buy more and more different products. This is not what TLG wants. They want that as many people as possible buy the same product. That way they can maximize profits with mass producing the sets. They'd rather have 1000 people buying Parisian Restaurant than 100 Palace Cinemas, 200 Pet Shops, 200 Parisian Restaurants, 200 Detective Offices and 300 Brick Banks.

 

 

2 minutes ago, pete411 said:

Sure there are a few sets that people would be willing to buy for RRP plus a service charge but does it make sense for random Nexo Knights, City or Duplo sets? That's the bulk of the 300 sets that are marked as retiring soon. I don't see an on demand market for those.

 

22 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

I'm also sceptic about the whole Lego Again thing. TLG's business model is based around mass production. The rumors said something about being able to buy any retired set you want and you'd get it in 30 days. There's no way they can make that cost efficiently.

I can however, see something similar to the Lego Ideas concept, where you can vote on sets that need to be re-released. Every set that gets 10000 votes would be considered by Lego and then possibly be re-released. That way they would have control over the whole thing and could sort of minimize cannibalism. This scenario would be a disaster for anyone going all-in on sets.

@c_rpg: You gave the answer yourself. 

[LegoBro]

I can however, see something similar to the Lego Ideas concept, where you can vote on sets that need to be re-released. Every set that gets 10000 votes would be considered by Lego and then possibly be re-released. That way they would have control over the whole thing and could sort of minimize cannibalism. This scenario would be a disaster for anyone going all-in on sets.

They would have at least 5 to 10 sets they would be considering to be re released under those guidelines and that would be with no guarantee I imagine. I'm not clicking on just one set to vote for. I think if this was the future, it would only be after so many years after EOL and no guarantees of re release. I would still buy above RRP for an original set in this scenario. Most people are just not that patient. Either way, I'm not going too deep on any set.

[biking_tiger]

Sometimes this site feels like a game of One Night Ultimate Werewolf. 

[Ciglione]

Also consider that we (Europe and the US) are not the center of the earth anymore. For Lego to see growth they are looking at the emerging markets. They did not open a factory in China without a reason. That is 2 billion people right there. Also India is a big market. 

[fossilrock]

This year alone, Lego had 808 different offerings, according to brickset.  In 2009 for example, that number was in the 400s.  Lego now produces double the output, and I think it's OVERKILL!  I welcome them retiring over 600 sets, and only producing about 500 some different offerings over the next few years.  There were so many sets they made recently that were unnecessary.  I know that i've been writing my "wishlist for lego business practices" on multiple sites including this one, hoping that maybe some exec reads these forums, and that me harping that they need to produce about 1/3rd of the number of sets, and then produce better quality sets with a better stock of minis is maybe just maybe hitting home.  The last two years have been just average in my opinion when compared to previous years.  I know a lot more that agree with me.

I welcome a mass retirement, and a pairing down in production, but an upscale in quality.  Let's hope so.

Edited November 12, 2016 by fossilrock

[Alpinemaps]

Holy crap. I step away for 4 hours and come back to over 100 posts?

[BrickU]

On 7/27/2016 at 5:40 PM, BrickU said:

Every few years the Lego Group turns the page and does a massive, sometimes slow wipe out of sets including ones that are only say 6-9 months old.  This will be the case this year.  They are moving in a slightly different direction with some new sets & ideas soon.  One may be able to "Cash In" with the correct buys; as is always the case.  However, its not like it used to be.  Even highly experienced investors have duds.  Similar to Wall Street Investors controlling your retirement fund.   Oh and there will always be some unexpected large sets over the $120 mark that will just disappear.  One needs to consume lots of information to make the correct decisions regarding these.  I''ll stop there.....  Good Luck!

Just Sayin