Retiring Soon - open speculation

[KShine]

LEGO is an odd bird - As a family owned company, their motivations/goals are not as straightforward as one might expect.

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, KShine said:

LEGO is an odd bird - As a family owned company, their motivations/goals are not as straightforward as one might expect.

I kind of like them as an odd bird. Going public changes companies' motivations, and Lego has been a leader in play innovation for decades. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't (Life of George, I'm looking at you). But as a privately held company, they can take a few more chances and spend more on R&D. 

[mauro23]

I remember the good old times looking into my LEGO order history:

4566083

10185 Green Grocer V46

2010-11-06

 

159,99 €

15

2.399,85 €

[zskid00]

6 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

Although, it's a razor's edge for Lego. They can, in part, charge high prices for their product because of perceived value. Oversaturation damages value perception. 

Exactly.  LEGO has to walk a fine line if they want to keep pushing more product and ask higher prices.  We are already seeing significant discounts for new sets right out of the gate and exclusive sets being discounted for the first time in years.  Buyers will continue to be wary of making purchases when they see a consistent pattern of retreads and retailers will be forced to make further reductions on lingering inventory which will lead to lower volume orders.  

[Infiltrator]

FINALLY!
JW - 75919 IR is done at LEGO Shop at Home Austria - it's not listed any more! *yay*

Got 4 now.

[mauro23]

2 minutes ago, Infiltrator said:

FINALLY!
JW - 75919 IR is done at LEGO Shop at Home Austria - it's not listed any more! *yay*

Got 4 now.

Wrong, it is listed... ;-)

 

Ausbruch des Indominus Rex™

Altes Produkt

[Ed Mack]

It's all perspective.  The latest news on the retiring sets was a positive sign to me.  At least to me anyway, it indicated more of a "return to normalcy, " with some major exclusives finally retiring, with some surprises mixed in.  I really do understand the frustration and negativity, though.  With the Death Star debacle, possible remakes and other highly regarded sets still being produced after years, the old methods of buying and stockpiling every exclusive or unique set and waiting for profits is not as "guaranteed" as it once was.

Throw in the fact that knockoffs and counterfeits have been inserted into the mix and additional restrictions have been placed on some sellers, there are many reasons to be down on the market.  Even I have not been buying as much as I used to.  I just cannot keep up with all the new sets being produced annually and I just don't have the space to keep them.  While I fear a declining market,  I also fear that even though the market is in the doldrums lately, a few (or more) of these retiring sets will explode in growth and I didn't invest heavily in them.  

In a way, the negativity around here will benefit those with patience and deep pockets and the fortitude to remain in the game.  If more people get of of the LEGO reselling business, the more the ones who remain in it will prosper.  The next several months will be good indicator of where this market is.  A good Christmas season could change the outlook dramatically and attract more people into the mix and on the flip side, a bad one will only dampen the mood further and force more people out.  Either way, it could be viewed differently. Good short term growth could be bad for long term investors and visa versa.  

Everybody on these forums wants the market to be a strong one, but a "thinning of the herd" might be best for the overall long term viability of the LEGO secondary market.  We also have to realize we are own worst enemy by extending retirement dates by stockpiling sets.  LEGO retires sets quickly that don't sell and will extend production of sets indefinitely that do.  Maybe a "down market" will force LEGO to retire more exclusives sooner than later.  It should be a very interesting 2017...

[Infiltrator]

1 minute ago, mauro23 said:

Wrong, it is listed... ;-)

 

Ausbruch des Indominus Rex™

Altes Produkt

...but not not listed for ordering any more! ALTES PRODUKT - that's the best tag of all!

 

[TANV]

Looks like the general mood is one of the following:

1. Dump everything and re-invest elsewhere! Sell! Sell! Sell!
2. Roll the dice! Gamble and hope that the set you buy will be worth something down the road.
3. HOLD! HOLD! HOLD THE DOOR!
4. Less is more! Buy less and save space and money for more sets..or food.
5. Profit?

[exciter1]

5 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Everybody on these forums wants the market to be a strong one, but a "thinning of the herd" might be best for the overall long term viability of the LEGO secondary market.  We also have to realize we are own worst enemy by extending retirement dates by stockpiling sets.  LEGO retires sets quickly that don't sell and will extend production of sets indefinitely that do.  Maybe a "down market" will force LEGO to retire more exclusives sooner than later.  It should be a very interesting 2017...

I predict a lull in the toy market overall for this holiday season. Hasbro is going to have some major losses this FY.

[Brian Briggs]

8 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Wrong, it is listed... ;-)

 

Ausbruch des Indominus Rex

Altes Produkt

 

6 minutes ago, Infiltrator said:

...but not not listed for ordering any more! ALTES PRODUKT - that's the best tag of all!

 

Where do you see the listing for IRB? On the JW product overview I only see 75915-75918 and 71205 (Dimensions).

[botchy123]

12 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

I predict a lull in the toy market overall for this holiday season. Hasbro is going to have some major losses this FY.

Not really a surprise with the quality of the stuff they put out for TFA. Stuff they made 20 years ago was better quality than that.

[Infiltrator]

23 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

 

Where do you see the listing for IRB? On the JW product overview I only see 75915-75918 and 71205 (Dimensions).

LEGO WEBSITE -> ENTDECKEN -> ALTE PRODUKTE
https://shop.lego.com/de-AT/Eingestellte-Produkte

[Guest TabbyBoy]

75919 is currently in stock at Smyths (Reading) for £99.99 and there's £20 off if you can find a cheap add-on item (that's also C&C) to go wth it. I expect that this set will be out of stock by tomorrow.

The above is an example, I got mine a lot cheaper than that so I'm passing.

Edited October 26, 2016 by TabbyBoy

[Ed Mack]

1 hour ago, exciter1 said:

I predict a lull in the toy market overall for this holiday season. Hasbro is going to have some major losses this FY.

The STAR WARS buzz is over.  With a new movie every year, that franchise will grow old and tired very quickly and the toys will be less desirable.

[ISO8T0]

27 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

The STAR WARS buzz is over.  With a new movie every year, that franchise will grow old and tired very quickly and the toys will be less desirable.

THIS!!

[Val-E]

30 minutes ago, pstebbing said:

THIS!!

Never write off SW. Vader is getting all the geeks excited and @exciter1 is already frothing at the mouth about a UCS ISD. They can scrape that barrel for as long as Siegfried and Roy play in Vegas.

[exciter1]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

Never write off SW. Vader is getting all the geeks excited and @exciter1 is already frothing at the mouth about a UCS ISD. They can scrape that barrel for as long as Siegfried and Roy play in Vegas.

...as long as a tiger doesn't get loose in Mos Espa.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

It's all perspective.  The latest news on the retiring sets was a positive sign to me.  At least to me anyway, it indicated more of a "return to normalcy, " with some major exclusives finally retiring, with some surprises mixed in.  I really do understand the frustration and negativity, though.  With the Death Star debacle, possible remakes and other highly regarded sets still being produced after years, the old methods of buying and stockpiling every exclusive or unique set and waiting for profits is not as "guaranteed" as it once was.

Throw in the fact that knockoffs and counterfeits have been inserted into the mix and additional restrictions have been placed on some sellers, there are many reasons to be down on the market.  Even I have not been buying as much as I used to.  I just cannot keep up with all the new sets being produced annually and I just don't have the space to keep them.  While I fear a declining market,  I also fear that even though the market is in the doldrums lately, a few (or more) of these retiring sets will explode in growth and I didn't invest heavily in them.  

In a way, the negativity around here will benefit those with patience and deep pockets and the fortitude to remain in the game.  If more people get of of the LEGO reselling business, the more the ones who remain in it will prosper.  The next several months will be good indicator of where this market is.  A good Christmas season could change the outlook dramatically and attract more people into the mix and on the flip side, a bad one will only dampen the mood further and force more people out.  Either way, it could be viewed differently. Good short term growth could be bad for long term investors and visa versa.  

Everybody on these forums wants the market to be a strong one, but a "thinning of the herd" might be best for the overall long term viability of the LEGO secondary market.  We also have to realize we are own worst enemy by extending retirement dates by stockpiling sets.  LEGO retires sets quickly that don't sell and will extend production of sets indefinitely that do.  Maybe a "down market" will force LEGO to retire more exclusives sooner than later.  It should be a very interesting 2017...

I am retired from investing but I have blown a grand on sets already this month because the offers have been so good it would have been rude to refuse. Let´s hope I have been wise with my choices.

1 minute ago, exciter1 said:

...as long as a tiger doesn't get loose in Mos Espa.

Chewie would probably mount it.

[ISO8T0]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

Never write off SW. Vader is getting all the geeks excited and @exciter1 is already frothing at the mouth about a UCS ISD. They can scrape that barrel for as long as Siegfried and Roy play in Vegas.

True. As we get closer to December the excitement for the film will increase throughout the fanbase and my household will be no exception. I think however that there is a supply and demand / saturation issue that Ed is alluding to. Sales will increase no doubt, but how strongly it's hard to tell. There is just so much stock everywhere.

[lazuli16]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

The STAR WARS buzz is over.  With a new movie every year, that franchise will grow old and tired very quickly and the toys will be less desirable.

This probably also belongs in the Complaints thread, but my 5 yr. old is done with star wars; which means i just have to build his stash by myself  (so I guess it's really not a complaint).

[exciter1]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Chewie would probably mount it.

Well, I won't image search that one at work.

[KShine]

53 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

The STAR WARS buzz is over.  With a new movie every year, that franchise will grow old and tired very quickly and the toys will be less desirable.

I only half agree about this. Star Wars will continue to live on (past the initial over hype).

Yes, some of the movies/ideas that Disney has will likely flop, but some of the directions that they take it could very possibly have a new life of their own.

Didn't you declared SW dead many years ago (in a blog I think), and at the time suggest you thought that the coming movies (pumped out every year) would help to bring it back, and keep it alive? 

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Well, I won't image search that one at work.

Everything he says sounds like a mating cry so I guess he has a lot of pent up love to spread.

3 minutes ago, KShine said:

I only half agree about this. Star Wars will continue to live on (past the initial over hype).

Yes, some of the movies/ideas that Disney has will likely flop, but some of the directions that they take it could very possibly have a new life of their own.

Didn't you declared SW dead many years ago (in a blog I think), and at the time suggest you thought that the coming movies (pumped out every year) would help to bring it back, and keep it alive? 

IF SW dies then part of Lego will too. They owe their survival to that Licence and let´s face it, it´s not Nexo Knights thats going to have generations sitting down building together in the future.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Val-E

[fossilrock]

I just saw a sketch that showed a First Order Stormtrooper for Episode 8, and it was kind of a disappointment. Of course, every movie will need to change the costume of the stormtrooper slightly to create a new marketing gimmick to sell more toys.  Now the first order stormtrooper will have a bit of a hybrid mask that references the OT stormtrooper. 

To me that gets old.  Stick with the same helmet from the force awakens.  Jeez...  But once again, now that Disney has this franchise, they'll do stupid things like this.  And we will see 6 different variants of that trooper.  I really think by the time the sixth film rolls around a few years from now, this franchise will need a break, but they won't do that.  By then they'll have a TV series (their own variation of GOT, or TWD) and more films like an Obi trilogy, or a new Han Solo triology that will oversaturate the market. 

I admit, I enjoy collecting star wars, and I have a collection of stuff that goes back across all 3 eras, but I do think this era will begin to wane well before the sixth film comes out...  I'm hoping after the sixth film, they instead leave it rest for a bit, but I doubt they will do that.