Retiring Soon - open speculation

[jriehm737]

Look at it this way.  Most adults buy the modulars who use brickset.  The police station is a very popular set with younger kids who probably don't use brickset or even know what it is.  IMO

Edited September 11, 2016 by jriehm737

[cladner]

i guess i can see your guys point about it being a kids set and therefore not going to be entered into a list on a website catering to AFOL which will skew the numbers lower.   at the same time, i stand by my supposition that modulars are the most popular sets among AFOL and popularity is growing as time goes on.   hopefully i'm not full of hot air.

Hopefully Pet Shop and  Palace Cinema take a hike this year to make up for nothing retiring last year (or was last year making up for TH retiring early the year before...)

Edited September 11, 2016 by cladner

[fossilrock]

2 hours ago, cladner said:

i guess i can see your guys point about it being a kids set and therefore not going to be entered into a list on a website catering to AFOL which will skew the numbers lower.   at the same time, i stand by my supposition that modulars are the most popular sets among AFOL and popularity is growing as time goes on.   hopefully i'm not full of hot air.

Hopefully Pet Shop and  Palace Cinema take a hike this year to make up for nothing retiring last year (or was last year making up for TH retiring early the year before...)

I do think the modular theme has a long future, so I tend to agree.  There are still so many different themes they can do and since they only make 1 a year, that helps from completely oversaturating the market.  I don't care that there are 5 sets out right now.  3 years from now, more than likely 2 of those will be retired, and there will be 2 to 3 more on the market.  By that point, the sellers that hold pet shop will be under 150, and I do agree that the overall modular theme will continue to grow in popularity.  Lego Movie 2 could push it even further.   I think this theme, the creator exclusive automobile theme, and the creator exclusive theme park will have a very active collectors market.  Long term, your money is probably better here than in Star Wars and other themes.  But, I do think there is a limit on the amount of people holding these and there's other factors at play.  If Lego all the sudden were to make 2 sets a year, that could quickly start to oversaturate the market, or if they started rehash central... that would also ruin not only the third party market, but even start the downward spiral in the the collectible aspect of the theme(s).  I doubt it gets to that point anytime soon though.  Pet Shops, and even Palace Cinemas should be safe for some time.  A rumored Hospital next year, that just keeps the wheel turning, and hopefully it's a big wheel because it will take a while to cycle back to these various themed buildings.   A town still needs a post office, bakery, coffee shop, sushi bar, police station, dentists office, daycare, school, and an arcade.  There's still a lot of time before they make it back to something like a pet shop.  

Edited September 11, 2016 by fossilrock

[Brian Briggs]

On 11.9.2016 at 2:47 AM, Deadfraggle said:

To names a few: pizza shop, old school diner/ice cream parlor, clothing store/tailor/dress shop, pharmacy, hospital, bakery, flower shop, bike store, deli, library, train station, gas station/quick shop, police station.

 

6 hours ago, fossilrock said:

A town still needs a post office, bakery, coffee shop, sushi bar, police station, dentists office, daycare, school, and an arcade.  There's still a lot of time before they make it back to something like a pet shop.  

To condense those numerations while adding some more choices:

1. pizza shop
2. old school diner/ice cream parlor
3. clothing store/tailor/dress shop
4. pharmacy
5. hospital
6. bakery
7. flower shop
8. bike store
9. deli
10. library
11. train station
12. gas station/quick shop
13. police station
14. post office
15. coffee shop
16. sushi bar
17. dentists office
18. daycare
19. school
20. arcade
21. cheese shop (extra cheese slopes are always welcome)
22. toy shop
23. confectionery/sweet shop/candy store
24. perfumery
25. butcher's shop

It looks like new modular buildings for the next 25 years are ensured if LEGO wants to stick to yearly releases. So as long as modulars are selling the series should be fine without repetitions being necessary.

[MathBuilder]

11 hours ago, Brian Briggs said:

Don't forget cheese shops (this one's awesome):

At the current rate of $100 a cheese slope , that MOC would become the most expensive set ever released by TLG.

[Val-E]

From an investment point of view, the landmark will be retirement date and post EOL performance of PS. If it´s appreciation follows the lines of the other 2015 exclusive retirements, then forget about modulars as a safe investment choice.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

From an investment point of view, the landmark will be retirement date and post EOL performance of PS. If it´s appreciation follows the lines of the other 2015 exclusive retirements, then forget about modulars as a safe investment choice.

I agree... UK sold prices on eBay of the Grand Emporium are disappointing so far so I think any modular set from now on is a very long term hold. Short-run sets like the Research Institute is where the smart money goes, I bought a boat load of those and made 2.5x in less than 6 months of EOL, even when selling in boxes of 10.

I also think there's a big storm coming soon and only the shrewd among of us will come out the other side without making a loss. This is why I NEVER discuss my big money makers on her until the fat lady sings.

Edited September 12, 2016 by TabbyBoy
typo

[yu051131]

guys, how do you search sold out items in new SAH, i try before but it doesnt work

[c_rpg]

9 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I agree... UK sold prices on eBay of the Grand Emporium are disappointing so far so I think any modular set from now on is a very long term hold.

What is the average sold price on ebay? It seems to be doing fine on bricklink: sold price is around 260€ global and 280€ in the EU.

I don't know what returns you are expecting, but I would be happy if I'd get a 9-10% CAGR on all my sets. Invest 10000€ for 5 years and you'd have around 6000€ of profit. Sign me up!

[Guest TabbyBoy]

10 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

What is the average sold price on ebay? It seems to be doing fine on bricklink: sold price is around 260€ global and 280€ in the EU.

I don't know what returns you are expecting, but I would be happy if I'd get a 9-10% CAGR on all my sets. Invest 10000€ for 5 years and you'd have around 6000€ of profit. Sign me up!

Around £230 which is about £30 after holding for a while, fees, paying for packing (double-walled boxes are expensive) and income tax on profit. That's not good enough to outway the risks if they buyer complains about dust on the box and wants to return it. I'm not familiar with Bricklink, are buyers as demanding on there as much as eBay?

At the moment, I sell large sets for cash locally as I can't be bothered with online complaints and returns.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

18 minutes ago, yu051131 said:

guys, how do you search sold out items in new SAH, i try before but it doesnt work

I was also looking and I think it's been removed along with "Retired Product" and "Retiring Soon". It's probably to mess with us which is why I won't be surprised if LEPIN is a LEGO subsidiary as they seem to do nothing about it.

Why on Earth to companies mess with websites? Any customer I know hates nothing more than change. It's as bad as a supermarket moving sugar to where the eggs used to be!

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, c_rpg said:

What is the average sold price on ebay? It seems to be doing fine on bricklink: sold price is around 260€ global and 280€ in the EU.

I don't know what returns you are expecting, but I would be happy if I'd get a 9-10% CAGR on all my sets. Invest 10000€ for 5 years and you'd have around 6000€ of profit. Sign me up!

PS will be lucky to reach 220.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

PS will be lucky to reach 220.

It won't as it's still in mass production!

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

It won't as it's still in mass production!

I didn´t  want to commit myself by adding "ever".

[dcdfan]

You guys are making me look good.

[exciter1]

If it gets to $220, I'd be happy.  Just sayin'.

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

If it gets to $220, I'd be happy.  Just sayin'.

2025 is just around the corner. It will make it. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

6 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

2025 is just around the corner. It will make it. 

We just need the QFLLs and impatient investors to leave the party and this set will climb quickly.

Just waiting for LEGO to announce that LEPIN is their Chinese subsidiary - it must be if LEGO sit on their arse and do nothing, right? I've seen the LEPIN bricks and the quality is excellent and in fact the colour consistency is better than LEGO! Just a shame that every set seems to have 5 missing pieces.

[dcdfan]

Just waiting for LEGO to announce that LEPIN is their Chinese subsidiary

Can you PLEASE stop repeating this.

[legopocalypse]

[Alpinemaps]

Leave the Lepin talk for the Knock-off thread. It won't be showing up anywhere else.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

13 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Leave the Lepin talk for the Knock-off thread. It won't be showing up anywhere else.

OK, those 3 slaps with a handbag will teach me to enter future LEPIN comments on the blickpicker.cn website assuming Eck Mad allows me to comment ;-)

[c_rpg]

3 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

Around £230 which is about £30 after holding for a while, fees, paying for packing (double-walled boxes are expensive) and income tax on profit. That's not good enough to outway the risks if they buyer complains about dust on the box and wants to return it. I'm not familiar with Bricklink, are buyers as demanding on there as much as eBay?

At the moment, I sell large sets for cash locally as I can't be bothered with online complaints and returns.

Wait so you get 230£ on average? If brickset is correct, MSRP for Grand Emporium is 133£. That's about 100£ profit. Let's say you pay 15% fees which leaves you 85£. A 5£ box leaves 80£. 20% income tax leaves you about 64£. I don't see how you are getting to the 30£ number.

133£ to 197£ in an average of 5 years leaves you with a CAGR of 8.17%. Still sounds pretty awesome to me.

Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic?

 

My overall experience with bricklink has been very positive.

 

[feed]

 

7 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

133£ to 197£ in an average of 5 years leaves you with a CAGR of 8.17%. Still sounds pretty awesome to me.

CAGR should be RRP to sale price as everyone buy in price and costs / taxes are different. 

I sold all of mine in March at £275 and grossed £95 per.  Last BIN sold on ebay on 5th for £275.00 + £10.00 postage, so it doesn’t look like it’s moved much since.  If PS does that in 18 months, I’ll be happy.  
 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

41 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

Wait so you get 230£ on average? If brickset is correct, MSRP for Grand Emporium is 133£. That's about 100£ profit. Let's say you pay 15% fees which leaves you 85£. A 5£ box leaves 80£. 20% income tax leaves you about 64£. I don't see how you are getting to the 30£ number.

133£ to 197£ in an average of 5 years leaves you with a CAGR of 8.17%. Still sounds pretty awesome to me.

Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic?

 

My overall experience with bricklink has been very positive.

 

I'm in the 40% tax bracket ;-(
Don't forget the high cost of a double-walled box and miles and miles and miles of bubble-wrap which easily takes another tenner off.

Thanks... I'll take a look at Bricklink.