Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Deadfraggle]

Man, I hit you guys up with a classic Ferris Bueller's Day Off quote and I don't think anyone got me. And this year is the 30th anniversary of the 1986 John Hughes Classic. Oh well. You win some, you lose some.

[Manse1001]

Man, I hit you guys up with a classic Ferris Bueller's Day Off quote and I don't think anyone got me. And this year is the 30th anniversary of the 1986 John Hughes Classic. Oh well. You win some, you lose some.

I think my Spaceballs quote went over a few heads as well!! ;o)

[mezzaluna]

man, you guys are all so funny!

[Lordoflego]

There's nothing I like more than a retirement of a big set, equally exciting is 50% off (WM) sale, everybody including me goes bananas.....plus a new release/leaked pics are almost as cool and ground-shaking 

[Furious_george]

22 minutes ago, Lordoflego said:

There's nothing I like more than a retirement of a big set, equally exciting is 50% off (WM) sale, everybody including me goes bananas.....plus a new release/leaked pics are almost as cool and ground-shaking 

Sounds interesting......?

[Lordoflego]

My Lego-life revolves around:

-new release (or at least leaked pics)

-sale/clearance

-retirement 

7 minutes ago, Furious_george said:

Sounds interesting......?

I've got nothing  

[Furious_george]

2 minutes ago, Lordoflego said:

My Lego-life revolves around:

-new release (or at least leaked pics)

-sale/clearance

-retirement 

I've got nothing  

Haha bummer .Got me excited.

[jbacunn]

Man, I hit you guys up with a classic Ferris Bueller's Day Off quote and I don't think anyone got me. And this year is the 30th anniversary of the 1986 John Hughes Classic. Oh well. You win some, you lose some.

I got it! Thank you Simone.

[mudcatsfan]

6 hours ago, Deadfraggle said:

 

 My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who talked to the LEGO rep last night. Disney minifigures aren't coming back. I guess it's pretty serious.

 

5 hours ago, Deadfraggle said:

Man, I hit you guys up with a classic Ferris Bueller's Day Off quote and I don't think anyone got me. And this year is the 30th anniversary of the 1986 John Hughes Classic. Oh well. You win some, you lose some.

 

2 hours ago, jbacunn said:

I got it! Thank you Simone.

[fossilrock]

Some interesting thoughts about this weekends 2XVIP.  Tower Bridge, Santas Workshop, Sandcrawler, and Ferrari all were knocked out to Will ship in 30 days.  Out of all of those, I think Ferrari still has time, and the others might be jittering with the dance..  I know it's not october's 2xVIP when the signs become more prevalent, but these all could beginning their last dance as 2016 fleets away.  It will be new years before you know it, and i'm guessing we will see at least 8 exclusives go into retirement.

T1 also got knocked out to will ship in 30 days but that changed to august 21st today.  I think that one will begin dancing too.  One thing that becomes evident to me as the years go on, and more cars are added beyond just T1, is that the exclusive creator cars theme has big legs.  If any of these sets begin to retire, I think good things will come to those that have the patience to wait it out.

The Bug, and Brick Bank also will ship in 30 days, but I suspect they'll be back for many years to come.

For those that care, the Tie Fighter is discounted by 40.00 on amazon, so, in my opinion that's the best deal out of all right now.  Tie Fighter could jump the Sandcrawler and Slave 1.....maybe.

Edited August 7, 2016 by fossilrock

[harrismiles]

petshop just got added to the long list of Out of Stock items

I just had my petshop order cancelled.

 

[Lordoflego]

4 hours ago, fossilrock said:

Some interesting thoughts about this weekends 2XVIP.  Tower Bridge, Santas Workshop, Sandcrawler, and Ferrari all were knocked out to Will ship in 30 days.  Out of all of those, I think Ferrari still has time, and the others might be jittering with the dance..  I know it's not october's 2xVIP when the signs become more prevalent, but these all could beginning their last dance as 2016 fleets away.  It will be new years before you know it, and i'm guessing we will see at least 8 exclusives go into retirement.

T1 also got knocked out to will ship in 30 days but that changed to august 21st today.  I think that one will begin dancing too.  One thing that becomes evident to me as the years go on, and more cars are added beyond just T1, is that the exclusive creator cars theme has big legs.  If any of these sets begin to retire, I think good things will come to those that have the patience to wait it out.

The Bug, and Brick Bank also will ship in 30 days, but I suspect they'll be back for many years to come.

For those that care, the Tie Fighter is discounted by 40.00 on amazon, so, in my opinion that's the best deal out of all right now.  Tie Fighter could jump the Sandcrawler and Slave 1.....maybe.

What makes you think that one year old tie will retire soon, before other SW exclusives?

[fossilrock]

8 minutes ago, harrismiles said:

petshop just got added to the long list of Out of Stock items

I just had my petshop order cancelled.

It's available at all the major retailers (TRU, Walmart, Target, Amazon), so it's still got a lot of time left, IMO.  

[fossilrock]

12 minutes ago, Lordoflego said:

What makes you think that one year old tie will retire soon, before other SW exclusives?

Personally, I think it's just an average set by UCS standards.  The discounts that are to be had at Walmart and Amazon right now also leave me to guess that they are trying to clearance them out.  Granted, walmart is the reason amazon matched the price, but it's really tough to say what is going on with it.  

Last year they added two UCS sets (Slave 1, and Tie) and retired two (Death Star and Red 5), this year another two were added (Assault on Hoth, and new Death Star)... Next January the Snowspeeder comes out.  So, I suspect Ewok Village and either Sandcrawler or Tie go to follow the typical pattern.   The way things have been going lately, the signs aren't showing that it's sandcrawler if you pay attention to other sites.

But, it's a big maybe, to be honest.  I think the signs are pointing to Pet Shop, Ewok Village, T1, and Tower Bridge going away this year.  Most of those are so hoarded though, that I wouldn't exactly call it investing with some of those. 

Edited August 8, 2016 by fossilrock

[tacsniper]

1 hour ago, Lordoflego said:

What makes you think that one year old tie will retire soon, before other SW exclusives?

By the time Christmas rolls around this set will be out for 19 months. So allow couple months into the new year for people to cash in their gift cards/cash and this set should linger close to its 2 year mark. Lego store still have these with 50R5 sitting on the shelves! They want products to move, not to have them sit in a warehouse/retail stores. If Walmart and Amazon are blowing them out, they probably got the go ahead to mark them down. If you are an Lego executive will you axe a product that is not selling or axe a product that is selling like EV (22R6) or SC. Now that doesn't mean Lego will not axe more than one set either, if production capacity is to be taken into account. I am not surprise to see Tie Fighter and EV go towards end of this year as we await for the next UCS.

Edited August 8, 2016 by tacsniper

[fossilrock]

The B-wing was another star wars exclusive that also had a shelf life of about 11 months.. 

Last year, 6 exclusives retired that I can remember, and please correct me if i'm wrong (Maersk Line EEE, Tumbler, Red 5, Tower of Orthanc, Death Star, & Sea Cow).  2014 had (Super Star Destroyer, R2D2, Soapwith Camel, Winter Village Market, Horizon Express, Town Hall, & Grand Emporium) 

So, 2014 had 7, and 2015 had 6.  I think this year will at least have 7, and could possibly have 8.. 

This is my list of speculation....

• 95% convinced: T1 Van, Tower Bridge, & Pet Shop
• 80% convinced: Ewok Village, Santas Workshop, Simpsons House, Kwikee Mart
• 50%: Tie Fighter, Hellicarrier, Temple of Airjitzu, Fairground Mixer
• 20%: Sandcrawler, Palace Cinema, Sydney Opera House

Would be shocked of any other exclusive not on this list disappears this year. 

And for guys like me that like to add investment stock slow and steady.. i'd say all on this list go, along with Winter Toy Shop, and the Mini Cooper by early 2018..  So, that's mostly my list that i've scratched together.  

[exciter1]

The B-wing was another star wars exclusive that also had a shelf life of about 11 months.. 

Last year, 6 exclusives retired that I can remember, and please correct me if i'm wrong (Maersk Line EEE, Tumbler, Red 5, Tower of Orthanc, Death Star, & Sea Cow).  2014 had (Super Star Destroyer, R2D2, Soapwith Camel, Winter Village Market, Horizon Express, Town Hall, & Grand Emporium) 

So, 2014 had 7, and 2015 had 6.  I think this year will at least have 7, and could possibly have 8.. 

This is my list of speculation....

• 95% convinced: T1 Van, Tower Bridge, & Pet Shop
• 80% convinced: Ewok Village, Santas Workshop, Simpsons House, Kwikee Mart
• 50%: Tie Fighter, Hellicarrier, Temple of Airjitzu, Fairground Mixer
• 20%: Sandcrawler, Palace Cinema, Sydney Opera House

Would be shocked of any other exclusive not on this list disappears this year. 

And for guys like me that like to add investment stock slow and steady.. i'd say all on this list go, along with Winter Toy Shop, and the Mini Cooper by early 2018..  So, that's mostly my list that i've scratched together.  

2014 also had Arkham Asylum and Haunted House.

[Loghamel]

2 hours ago, fossilrock said:

The B-wing was another star wars exclusive that also had a shelf life of about 11 months.. 

Last year, 6 exclusives retired that I can remember, and please correct me if i'm wrong (Maersk Line EEE, Tumbler, Red 5, Tower of Orthanc, Death Star, & Sea Cow).  2014 had (Super Star Destroyer, R2D2, Soapwith Camel, Winter Village Market, Horizon Express, Town Hall, & Grand Emporium) 

So, 2014 had 7, and 2015 had 6.  I think this year will at least have 7, and could possibly have 8.. 

This is my list of speculation....

• 95% convinced: T1 Van, Tower Bridge, & Pet Shop
• 80% convinced: Ewok Village, Santas Workshop, Simpsons House, Kwikee Mart
• 50%: Tie Fighter, Hellicarrier, Temple of Airjitzu, Fairground Mixer
• 20%: Sandcrawler, Palace Cinema, Sydney Opera House

Would be shocked of any other exclusive not on this list disappears this year. 

And for guys like me that like to add investment stock slow and steady.. i'd say all on this list go, along with Winter Toy Shop, and the Mini Cooper by early 2018..  So, that's mostly my list that i've scratched together.  

I believe Sandcrawler should move up and sit next to the Pet Shop on your list.  

[Legojona]

20 minutes ago, Loghamel said:

I believe Sandcrawler should move up and sit next to the Pet Shop on your list.  

Perhaps and I would also put the Sydney opera House in the top category.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Legojona

[Furious_george]

27 minutes ago, Legojona said:

Perhaps and I would also put the Sydney opera House in the top category.

I wish the Helicarrier would join them.

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, fossilrock said:

This is my list of speculation....

• 95% convinced: T1 Van, Tower Bridge, & Pet Shop
• 80% convinced: Ewok Village, Santas Workshop, Simpsons House, Kwikee Mart
• 50%: Tie Fighter, Hellicarrier, Temple of Airjitzu, Fairground Mixer
• 20%: Sandcrawler, Palace Cinema, Sydney Opera House

 

Here´s mine.

• 95% convinced: SW, SOH, EV,
• 80% convinced:  Simpsons House, Kwikee Mart, Sandcrawler,  Pet Shop
• 50%: Fairground Mixer, WTS (Jan 17), Mini, Palace Cinema (if new modular in 2017)
• 20%: TB, T1(both are still best sellers), Helicarrier,
• 10%: Tie Fighter, Parisian Restaurant, Slave 1, Ferris Wheel,
• 0%: The rest

[c_rpg]

The TIE is a hard one. I can see people settling for the cheaper First Order Special Forces TIE, TIE Advanced or A-Wing vs Vaders TIE if they think the UCS set is too expensive. On the other hand, if little Timmy really wants that Slave 1 or Sandcrawler, there are no cheaper alternatives. Of course a SW/UCS collector will still want the UCS set, but I think sales are a bit lower because of this.

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

The TIE is a hard one. I can see people settling for the cheaper First Order Special Forces TIE, TIE Advanced or A-Wing vs Vaders TIE if they think the UCS set is too expensive. On the other hand, if little Timmy really wants that Slave 1 or Sandcrawler, there are no cheaper alternatives. Of course a SW/UCS collector will still want the UCS set, but I think sales are a bit lower because of this.

Tie playsets have not performed well (compared to X wing) and the current one looks to be no different. The UCS one should do OK if it does not have a 3 year life as it will pair with 10240 but it´s definitely a set to buy at a healthy discount and as late as one dares.

[Laudrup16]

13 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

The TIE is a hard one. I can see people settling for the cheaper First Order Special Forces TIE, TIE Advanced or A-Wing vs Vaders TIE if they think the UCS set is too expensive. On the other hand, if little Timmy really wants that Slave 1 or Sandcrawler, there are no cheaper alternatives. Of course a SW/UCS collector will still want the UCS set, but I think sales are a bit lower because of this.

In my opinion, little Timmy would prefer Slave I rather than Sandcrawler, which I reckon is reserved for AFOLs. Slave I should have a push given future films starring Bobba Fett.

Also Timmy's dad would prefer to deliver on a 200 set than 300 one.

Anyway I expect Sandcrawler and EV to retire in Oct/Nov16, while Slave I will stay alive for a while.

Regarding creator line, I expect SOH to retire before TB, being a surprise as it's less hoarded.

Tie is uninvestible in my opinion, unless scoring at 30-40% discount.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Laudrup16

[fantomas007]

My list

• 95% - Volvo technic. Nothing else. In these chaotic days there is hard to predict with such percentage, except technic.

• 90% - Pet shop (this set should have retired 2 years ago, i cannot imagine to let it alive for another year and keep 6 modulars together on shelves)

• 80% - Ewok Village (3 years out, classic period for UCS, + another playset is here - AoH),

• 60% - Sandcrawler (will have 2.5 years in the end of year + probably not good seller + there are many UCS now)

• 50% - Palace Cinema (too many modulars are on shelves - 6 with new one coming on January, so logic says that at least 2 should retired, otherwise TLG doesnt know cannibalism),

• 50% - Simpsons House, Kwikee Mart (is the licence ending this year? if not, simpson house can finish and Mart live more, since is here just 1 year),

• 50% - Sydney Opera House (2 years, still old design of box, bad seller),

• 30 % - Mini Cooper (newer than T1, but probably not so good seller + was in discounts last year + many cars together on shelves),

• 25 % - T1 Van (it should have retired many years ago, and since is still good selling, no reason to finish; this is a typical set of new dark age of TLG policy - neverending production of popular set).

• 20% - Hellicarrier (it can have same life as Tumbler, but i think they need to let on shelves a big heroes set, and Tumbler finished problably also because of the end of batman trilogy)

• 15 % - Tower Bridge (another neverending set - but got new box design + is pairing with Big ben, so no reason to end)

• 10 % - Parisian restaurant (there are older modulars, but who know, TLG can decide to finish 3, and this set will have 3 years in the end of year, or TLG can surprisly change EOL chain),

• 5 % - Tie Fighter (just 1.5 year in the end of year - only unpopular B-wing lived so short, there is several older UCS sets)

• 1 % - Ferris Wheel (no reason to finish it just after 1.5 years)

• 0% - Temple of Airjitzu (just 1 year, Ninjago movie coming on 2017, how can somebody thinks that this could retire?)

• 0 % - Slave (only 2 years will have in January, is very popular).

The list looks skeptical, but it is a new world of TLG with abnormal number of exclusive sets and neverending production of some sets, which are still buying. But something must retire this year. I expect these sets:

Volvo, Pet shop, Palace Cinema, both Simpsons, Ewok, Sandcrawler, Sydney + 1 surprise Mini Cooper