fossilrock Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, exciter1 said: Have Mystery Machine's been clearanced anywhere? I know the Mystery Mansions are the most recent addition for Wal-Mart clearance. I have a weird feeling this line will disappear quick. It's sporadic, i've seen a few get clearanced by about 30%, but that's about it. This line has really disappeared after this weekend. I just checked the walmart app and the lighthouse, mansion, and a lot of the other sets are pretty thin. Snooze you lose, I guess. These will linger online for a while, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, fossilrock said: It's sporadic, i've seen a few get clearanced by about 30%, but that's about it. This line has really disappeared after this weekend. I just checked the walmart app and the lighthouse, mansion, and a lot of the other sets are pretty thin. Snooze you lose, I guess. These will linger online for a while, though. It appears quite a bit of the stuff recently clearanced at Wal-Mart was bought up over the weekend here too. The only one I really question not picking up is the T-Rex Trackers for $49. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dcdfan Posted July 18, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted July 18, 2016 Yeah.... I expect a "retiring soon" tag any day now. Wonder how long it will take before the horde cleans them all out. Just beware for the new version. I spoke to a lego store manager the other day and he confided me the new one will come out next year and it will probably be green. Please remove if this isn't allowed but people are posting these are the new rumored replacement. 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, dcdfan said: Please remove if this isn't allowed but people are posting these are the new rumored replacement. You know you should wait for Lego's official release don't you? I am really curious about the designer video though. Has that one leaked as well? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laudrup16 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 55 minutes ago, Ciglione said: You know you should wait for Lego's official release don't you? I am really curious about the designer video though. Has that one leaked as well? Let's guestimate ROE of those orange hidden gems! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mezzaluna Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 19 hours ago, Lordoflego said: Are you saying every single 75101 tie was made in the same week? well no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacsniper Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 6 hours ago, dcdfan said: Please remove if this isn't allowed but people are posting these are the new rumored replacement. They are so cute! With the Pokemon craze going right now, this will attract new investors and collectors. We should buy the maximum quantities as soon as they are release to create a shortage. Oh btw, new investors, start buying out all the current orange removers, those will be going for big bucks 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legojona Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 As a recent entrant to Lego investing I have made some bets on which sets above a $100 I think will retire soon and go up in value rapidly. I made a top five of sets I think will reach 2x value the soonest: 5. Pet Shop: will retire at end of year, but with many investors slow to grow in value. 4. Palace cinema: I think this will retire at the same time as the pet shop and less people will have bought it, making it quicker to increase than the pet shop. 3. Ferris wheel: once this retires many people will realize they forgot to buy it. 2. Sydney Opera house: probable to retire soon and not many people bought it. 1. Ewok village: low amount of people bought it relatively to similar sets. What do you guys think? And what it your top five? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armor Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Wait, you know how many sets people have bought? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadfraggle Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, Armor said: Wait, you know how many sets people have bought? I just ask my magic 8 ball when I need the hard questions like that answered. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensche Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Do you really think, not many people bought Ewok Village??? oO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, Ensche said: Do you really think, not many people bought Ewok Village??? oO People no, resellers yes. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menno Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Pet Shop is hyped. I think iT Will be a slow Investment. Palace Cinema Will be a better investment. Less attention. Ewok Village, great set but the fans will like the fighters more. T1 Volkswagen, good car slow investment. SOH, don't like it. But that's why it can be a great investment.. The White House, a new set is coming.. 21030 Big Ben, a new set is coming.. 21029 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legojona Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 On brickset.com you can easily see how many people want certain sets and how many already own it. I see this as quite reliable numbers for investment decisions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrymc4677 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Legojona said: As a recent entrant to Lego investing I have made some bets on which sets above a $100 I think will retire soon and go up in value rapidly. I made a top five of sets I think will reach 2x value the soonest: 5. Pet Shop: will retire at end of year, but with many investors slow to grow in value. 4. Palace cinema: I think this will retire at the same time as the pet shop and less people will have bought it, making it quicker to increase than the pet shop. 3. Ferris wheel: once this retires many people will realize they forgot to buy it. 2. Sydney Opera house: probable to retire soon and not many people bought it. 1. Ewok village: low amount of people bought it relatively to similar sets. What do you guys think? And what it your top five? I would love it if the Ferris Wheel went early since I've got my quota already, but I doubt it will retire before the Fairground Mixer. Stranger things have happened however, so who knows? Fingers crossed that you are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mezzaluna Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 amen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voltron Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 47 minutes ago, Legojona said: On brickset.com you can easily see how many people want certain sets and how many already own it. I see this as quite reliable numbers for investment decisions. Brickset is a great website and provides some great info such as set details and the owned/wanted numbers, however do not take them as fact. As an example, take a look at the below link which is a "fact sheet" from lego 2015 annual report, and compare the sets which lego state as "best sellers" of 2015 against brickset values: http://cache.lego.com/r/www/r/AboutUs/-/media/about us/docs/2015 annual result lego group _fact sheet.pdf?l.r2=1744155185 Set Name Own Want RRP 41062 Elsa's Sparkling Ice Castle 3359 786 £34.99 7965 Millennium Falcon 12157 4344 £132.99 60047 Police Station 2962 1612 £79.99 31313 Mindstorms EV3 2237 1166 £299.99 41101 Heartlake Grand Hotel 1163 975 £99.99 Now I understand that the lego data maybe from 2015, however if these were supposedly lego best sellers the numbers should be higher. Now compare them against some random sets from 2015: Set Name Own Want RRP 10246 Detective's Office 8899 4853 £132.99 21302 The Big Bang Theory 5494 1521 £49.99 75095 TIE Fighter 3648 3318 £169.99 75904 Mystery Mansion 3434 1823 £69.99 76042 The SHIELD Helicarrier 2741 3300 £269.99 The numbers don't add up. My opinion is that the average lego builder does not use brickset, therefore it is impossible to know how many people own a certain set, unless you work at lego. I'm not saying disregard brickset, I also use it to analyse set data, however if it was as easy as going by brickset own numbers, exo-suit would be gold... Set Name Own Want RRP 21109 Exo-Suit 7431 1208 29.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legojona Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 (edited) 7 hours ago, Mhd747 said: Brickset is a great website and provides some great info such as set details and the owned/wanted numbers, however do not take them as fact. ... Good point, but as an investor I am only interested in the AFOL's that might keep it in the original box or are interested in buying the MISB in the future. Regular sales numbers are interesting if you look for selling sets in 10+ years for nostalgia reasons. Regarding the numbers, they are in DKK volume, so it makes sense the more expensive sets are in there. The Falcon is clearly a slow gainer if you look at the numbers as the market has been flooded with it. I base a lot of my buys on dividing the wants on bricksets by the owns of the top 50 wanted sets. This gives you some sets that quite a lot of people want, but not a lot own yet. For 2014, you get the following: Number Name Theme Pieces minifigs price rating own want need 60064-1 Arctic Supply Plane City - Arctic 374 3 $49.99 5 1244 1765 1,41881 21104-1 NASA Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity Rover Ideas - Astronomy 295 $29.99 4.5 1494 1920 1,285141 60062-1 Arctic Icebreaker City - Arctic 717 7 $129.99 5 1754 2167 1,235462 10241-1 Maersk Line Triple-E Advanced Models - Maersk 1518 $149.99 5 1970 2315 1,175127 75059-1 Sandcrawler Star Wars - Ultimate Collector Series 3296 14 $299.99 4.8 4766 5007 1,050567 75058-1 MTT Star Wars - Episode I 954 12 $89.99 5 1786 1798 1,006719 75046-1 Coruscant Police Gunship Star Wars - The Clone Wars 481 4 $49.99 4 2196 1996 0,908925 70810-1 MetalBeard's Sea Cow The LEGO Movie 2741 5 $249.99 5 3780 3289 0,870106 5002122-1 TC-4 Star Wars - Minifig Pack 3 1 5 1947 1686 0,865948 75045-1 Republic AV-7 Anti-Vehicle Cannon Star Wars - The Clone Wars 434 4 $39.99 5 2238 1919 0,857462 70813-1 Rescue Reinforcements The LEGO Movie 859 5 $69.99 4.5 2069 1683 0,813436 Most of these sets have shot up in value. Edited July 19, 2016 by Legojona 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scatterbug Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 11 hours ago, Legojona said: I made a top five of sets I think will reach 2x value the soonest: 5.Pet Shop: will retire at end of year, but with many investors slow to grow in value. 4. Palace cinema: I think this will retire at the same time as the pet shop and less people will have bought it, making it quicker to increase than the pet shop. 3. Ferris wheel: once this retires many people will realize they forgot to buy it. 2. Sydney Opera house: probable to retire soon and not many people bought it. 1. Ewok village: low amount of people bought it relatively to similar sets. What do you guys think? And what it your top five? If your goal is a speedy 2x retail I wouldn't get any of those. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil B Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, Legojona said: Just wanted to share a bit guys. I'll just keep things to myself then. Sharing is fine, don't be put off by the responses. The concensus in the responses is just: a) Brickset numbers can be used but should be used with caution; b ) there are faster and better ways to make money than by betting on the sets you listed. Still, to each their own game and only time will tell who's right or wrong (if there even is such a thing - there are many different strategies with different expectations). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 3 hours ago, Scatterbug said: If your goal is a speedy 2x retail I wouldn't get any of those. What do you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scatterbug Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, jaisonline said: What do you mean? The OP stated: 'I made a top five of sets I think will reach 2x value the soonest' I'm interpreting that as 2x RRP. Many other sets will achieve this post-EOL quicker than the 5 listed. Due to buyer's remorse I think something like Pet Shop will be available sub RRP for a time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, Scatterbug said: The OP stated: 'I made a top five of sets I think will reach 2x value the soonest' I'm interpreting that as 2x RRP. Many other sets will achieve this post-EOL quicker than the 5 listed. Due to buyer's remorse I think something like Pet Shop will be available sub RRP for a time. Ok. I think the poster meant which sets will achieve 2x MSRP fastest (soonest) of the sets available today (thus these sets will need to retire soon). Maybe I misunderstood. Which 5 sets do you think will achieve 2x MSRP before the ones on his list of 5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legojona Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, jaisonline said: Ok. I think the poster meant which sets will achieve 2x MSRP fastest (soonest) of the sets available today (thus these sets will need to retire soon). Maybe I misunderstood. Which 5 sets do you think will achieve 2x MSRP before the ones on his list of 5? That is exactly what I meant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Personally, if you are looking for sets to hit 2x the quickest, I wouldn't go with a single modular since time is playing a factor and the only one that has any real possibility would be the UCS tie if that one retires in the next few months. I have been playing this game in my head too, and i'd go with Mystery Machine, Imperial Shuttle Tydirium, Rey's Speeder Bike, The Eiffel Tower, and Big Ben from the architecture line.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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