Retiring Soon - open speculation

[StormBricks]

many thanks

[gmpirate]

many thanks

Alternatively, you could just Google "Lego seal codes". Grab some popcorn and your favorite beverage, sit back in your favorite chair and watch a good video of someone reading the tape.

Of course, you may want to watch the prequel of them actually opening the shipping boxes first :-P

[fossilrock]

Judging from what i've seen over the last few years (and thanks to my spreadsheets showing purchase dates, discounts, retirement dates etc through the years), i'm convinced the following Star Wars sets retire in late fall/early winter.  Reason is because many of these are either being clearanced at walmarts right now, or have the Lego LEGO Shop at Home sales.  I'm not following buildable figures, so i'm not speculating on those or microfighters, but i'd suspect those will get culled too.  I'm not speculating too deep on exclusives either because they are done to death, but i'd put my money on Sandcrawler and Ewok Village getting axed by december.

----------

Winter wave 2015 sets: All of them: ( Tie Advance Protype, Geonosis Troopers, Senate Commando Troopers, Imperial Troop Transport, Shadow Troopers, Battle Droid Troop Carrier (this may already be gone), Hailfire Droid )

Summer Wave 2015 Sets: All of them (Flash Speeder, Naboo Starfighter, Death Star Final Duel, Tydirium, Sith Infiltrator, Imperial Assault Carrier) - all of these are seeing 25% or more discounts lately.  Walmart seems to be trying to get rid of their stock ( a solid sign of their production runs ending well before the Rogue One sets hit the market ) 

Force Awakens Force Friday sets: FO Snowspeeder, FO Transporter, FO Special Forces Tie Fighter (I think their final production runs maybe nearing)

Winter Wave 2016 Sets: Resistance Troop Transporter, Battle on Takodana (the clearance of these sets right now is a solid sign.  Last year, a lot of the winter wave sets only had a year run too, while others did not.  I suspect the 3 of the 4 24.99 sets (Hoth Attack, Droid Escape, Obi Wan's Inteceptor, Carbon Freezing) will also carry on past this next year.  Or maybe all 4 do.

I'm not so sure about the following getting tagged this winter: Millennium Falcon, Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, Poe's X-wing (I was convinced a while back, but i'm not so sure now since this never is clearanced), or any of the battle packs from this year.  I think some of those sets will stick around past the end of this year and may go well into all of next year.

 

[Fcbarcelona101]

3 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Judging from what i've seen over the last few years (and thanks to my spreadsheets showing purchase dates, discounts, retirement dates etc through the years), i'm convinced the following Star Wars sets retire in late fall/early winter.  Reason is because many of these are either being clearanced at walmarts right now, or have the Lego LEGO Shop at Home sales.  I'm not following buildable figures, so i'm not speculating on those or microfighters, but i'd suspect those will get culled too.  I'm not speculating too deep on exclusives either because they are done to death, but i'd put my money on Sandcrawler and Ewok Village getting axed by december.

----------

Winter wave 2015 sets: All of them: ( Tie Advance Protype, Geonosis Troopers, Senate Commando Troopers, Imperial Troop Transport, Shadow Troopers, Battle Droid Troop Carrier (this may already be gone), Hailfire Droid )

Summer Wave 2015 Sets: All of them (Flash Speeder, Naboo Starfighter, Death Star Final Duel, Tydirium, Sith Infiltrator, Imperial Assault Carrier) - all of these are seeing 25% or more discounts lately.  Walmart seems to be trying to get rid of their stock ( a solid sign of their production runs ending well before the Rogue One sets hit the market ) 

Force Awakens Force Friday sets: FO Snowspeeder, FO Transporter, FO Special Forces Tie Fighter (I think their final production runs maybe nearing)

Winter Wave 2016 Sets: Resistance Troop Transporter, Battle on Takodana (the clearance of these sets right now is a solid sign.  Last year, a lot of the winter wave sets only had a year run too, while others did not.  I suspect the 3 of the 4 24.99 sets (Hoth Attack, Droid Escape, Obi Wan's Inteceptor, Carbon Freezing) will also carry on past this next year.  Or maybe all 4 do.

I'm not so sure about the following getting tagged this winter: Millennium Falcon, Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, Poe's X-wing (I was convinced a while back, but i'm not so sure now since this never is clearanced), or any of the battle packs from this year.  I think some of those sets will stick around past the end of this year and may go well into all of next year.

 

 

What about Assault on Hoth?!?!

[McLovin]

On 5/2/2016 at 4:08 AM, c_rpg said:

Both of these are March, so quite fresh. Which is what I meant with "they are definitely still producing them". I don't know how large the batches are, but they need to be large enough to justify starting up production. They need to change the molds on all the machines so I doubt they would only produce a 1k batch. SC and EV do not move at the pace of the cheaper sets.

I'm sure we'll see 2xS6 soon enough.

For what it's worth, the seal codes refer to packing dates, not production dates of the elements. The elements could have been produced months or years ago, and are only now packaged into the final product.

[c_rpg]

1 hour ago, McLovin said:

For what it's worth, the seal codes refer to packing dates, not production dates of the elements. The elements could have been produced months or years ago, and are only now packaged into the final product.

Good point. I've no idea how long parts are stored. It would make sense to make a large batch of "rare" elements like unique minifigs and then keep them stored till the product gets retired. If they have a few of those parts left that wouldn't be such a big deal.

[Val-E]

With the raft of new sets coming in June, we can expect a summer cull similar to previous years. In Europe in 2015, many Lego Movie, Chima sets and the whole Hobbit range were pulled making some Lonely Mountain owners instant millionaires.

What are your predictions for 2016?

I reckon that Jurassic World could be done and that some of the slower selling Technic, CITY, Friends and Star Wars sets could go too. Maybe even Speed Champions S1 and Scooby Doo.

If anyone has access to a distribution catalogue and can confirm or deny the above, that would be great.

Edited May 30, 2016 by Val-E

[Sprocket77]

18 minutes ago, Val-E said:

With the raft of new sets coming in June, we can expect a summer cull similar to previous years. In Europe in 2015, many Lego Movie, Chima sets and the whole Hobbit range were pulled making some Lonely Mountain owners instant millionaires.

What are your predictions for 2016?

I reckon that Jurassic World could be done and that some of the slower selling Technic, CITY, Friends and Star Wars sets could go too. Maybe even Speed Champions S1 and Scooby Doo.

If anyone has access to a distribution catalogue and can confirm or deny the above, that would be great.

Ah Lonely Mountain for €50, how much I loved you 

I would agree on Jurassic World and I think Speed Champions Season 1 is definitely done. I can see Scooby gone by Christmas along with the Deep Sea and Space City sets. I'd say Shuttle Tyderium, Death Star Final Duel will go in November along with some of the first wave of The Force Awakens range, although not the Falcon.

[Val-E]

Another summer candidate could be the demolition subtheme. Heavily discounted recently and with the volcano theme imminent, it won´t stick around for much longer.

[gregpj]

42 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Another summer candidate could be the demolition subtheme. Heavily discounted recently and with the volcano theme imminent, it won´t stick around for much longer.

That's because it was a crappy theme. I suspect it'll linger on shelves like the Mine sets and take much longer to appreciate and be appreciated.

[inversion]

Ahh, good to be reminded to buy a full series of JW.

[ironbrick]

On May 6, 2016 at 9:34 PM, fossilrock said:

Judging from what i've seen over the last few years (and thanks to my spreadsheets showing purchase dates, discounts, retirement dates etc through the years), i'm convinced the following Star Wars sets retire in late fall/early winter.  Reason is because many of these are either being clearanced at walmarts right now, or have the Lego LEGO Shop at Home sales.  I'm not following buildable figures, so i'm not speculating on those or microfighters, but i'd suspect those will get culled too.  I'm not speculating too deep on exclusives either because they are done to death, but i'd put my money on Sandcrawler and Ewok Village getting axed by december.

----------

Winter wave 2015 sets: All of them: ( Tie Advance Protype, Geonosis Troopers, Senate Commando Troopers, Imperial Troop Transport, Shadow Troopers, Battle Droid Troop Carrier (this may already be gone), Hailfire Droid )

Summer Wave 2015 Sets: All of them (Flash Speeder, Naboo Starfighter, Death Star Final Duel, Tydirium, Sith Infiltrator, Imperial Assault Carrier) - all of these are seeing 25% or more discounts lately.  Walmart seems to be trying to get rid of their stock ( a solid sign of their production runs ending well before the Rogue One sets hit the market ) 

Force Awakens Force Friday sets: FO Snowspeeder, FO Transporter, FO Special Forces Tie Fighter (I think their final production runs maybe nearing)

Winter Wave 2016 Sets: Resistance Troop Transporter, Battle on Takodana (the clearance of these sets right now is a solid sign.  Last year, a lot of the winter wave sets only had a year run too, while others did not.  I suspect the 3 of the 4 24.99 sets (Hoth Attack, Droid Escape, Obi Wan's Inteceptor, Carbon Freezing) will also carry on past this next year.  Or maybe all 4 do.

I'm not so sure about the following getting tagged this winter: Millennium Falcon, Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, Poe's X-wing (I was convinced a while back, but i'm not so sure now since this never is clearanced), or any of the battle packs from this year.  I think some of those sets will stick around past the end of this year and may go well into all of next year.

 

This is a great analysis. Problem is there are going to be a lot more Lego Star Wars sets released in the coming years due to the new movies and Disney owning the license. I worry more about market saturation. Back when George Lucas was the sole owner of the franchise we still had talk that one day the license granted to Lego to produce Star Wars sets may run out. Had that of occurred your Lego Star Wars sets would be worth a lot more than they ever could with Disney holding the license. Could Lego Star Wars sets end up like Lego Super-Heroes sets as a result (i.e. horrid investment potential)? It is a definite possibility as more and more sets are released year after year.

Personally, I hope they do retire the Ewok Village and the Sandcrawler. Exclusives like the are sticking around much too long (hence, my disdain for the Lego Death Star). 

[gregpj]

9 minutes ago, ironbrick said:

This is a great analysis. Problem is there are going to be a lot more Lego Star Wars sets released in the coming years due to the new movies and Disney owning the license. I worry more about market saturation. Back when George Lucas was the sole owner of the franchise we still had talk that one day the license granted to Lego to produce Star Wars sets may run out. Had that of occurred your Lego Star Wars sets would be worth a lot more than they ever could with Disney holding the license. Could Lego Star Wars sets end up like Lego Super-Heroes sets as a result (i.e. horrid investment potential)? It is a definite possibility as more and more sets are released year after year.

Personally, I hope they do retire the Ewok Village and the Sandcrawler. Exclusives like the are sticking around much too long (hence, my disdain for the Lego Death Star). 

Nope, not a negative post.

[c_rpg]

14 minutes ago, ironbrick said:

This is a great analysis. Problem is there are going to be a lot more Lego Star Wars sets released in the coming years due to the new movies and Disney owning the license. I worry more about market saturation. Back when George Lucas was the sole owner of the franchise we still had talk that one day the license granted to Lego to produce Star Wars sets may run out. Had that of occurred your Lego Star Wars sets would be worth a lot more than they ever could with Disney holding the license. Could Lego Star Wars sets end up like Lego Super-Heroes sets as a result (i.e. horrid investment potential)? It is a definite possibility as more and more sets are released year after year.

Personally, I hope they do retire the Ewok Village and the Sandcrawler. Exclusives like the are sticking around much too long (hence, my disdain for the Lego Death Star). 

The new movies are very good news for people who bought star wars sets a few years ago. There are tons of older fans who are discovering the UCS sets and want to have the older ones too. I think there are more potential buyers out there now than ever before. Of course there are a lot more sets produced by Lego, but there will always be room for older sets that are not available anymore.

If you think a license ending and less sets on the market is always a good thing you should look in to Lotr sets.

[ironbrick]

Just now, c_rpg said:

The new movies are very good news for people who bought star wars sets a few years ago. There are tons of older fans who are discovering the UCS sets and want to have the older ones too. I think there are more potential buyers out there now than ever before. Of course there are a lot more sets produced by Lego, but there will always be room for older sets that are not available anymore.

If you think a license ending and less sets on the market is always a good thing you should look in to Lotr sets.

No, LOTR while extremely popular in some circles does not have nearly the amount of fans that Star Wars has, Star Wars is the juggernaut of success. To this day the original Star Wars film is still one of the highest grossing films of all time. 

Note that those newcomers you speak of also have new re-releases produced by lego to look into too. For instance who would have thought another Lego Death Star would be announced so close to the retirement of the last one? 

[c_rpg]

Just now, ironbrick said:

No, LOTR while extremely popular in some circles does not have nearly the amount of fans that Star Wars has, Star Wars is the juggernaut of success. To this day the original Star Wars film is still one of the highest grossing films of all time. 

Note that those newcomers you speak of also have new re-releases produced by lego to look into too. For instance who would have thought another Lego Death Star would be announced so close to the retirement of the last one? 

My point is there would be a lot more people buying retired LOTR sets if they produced some new material (new movie).

Of course there are new releases, but they cannot remake everything. You are picking one set and applying your logic to all sets. No one is stupid enough to buy only copies of 1 set. Look at UCS R2-D2, X-wing, B-wing, etc. They are all doing great (above 10% cagr). Besides, who says 10188 will not increase in value anymore? It has only been retired for like 6 months. Most people hold sets for 2-3 years after retirement before selling.

[Wimmer]

6 hours ago, c_rpg said:

The new movies are very good news for people who bought star wars sets a few years ago. There are tons of older fans who are discovering the UCS sets and want to have the older ones too. I think there are more potential buyers out there now than ever before. Of course there are a lot more sets produced by Lego, but there will always be room for older sets that are not available anymore.

If you think a license ending and less sets on the market is always a good thing you should look in to Lotr sets.

That sounds true to me.  The Lotr sets seem not to appreciate a lot at all, and I don't think they were popular either.  I have one of the ship sets, buts that's all I was interested in because I like 'well designed' ship-sets.  Definitely NOT a fan of the LEGO movie ship mistake...

i would love for Lego to start treating their 'set life', more like they do with the modulars; keep them around for two, three or four years, depending on how well they sell.  Some of these got pulled after two years only, like the city hall set...

[Wimmer]

Since I am new to all this anyways, let me ask for an opinion.  The new Lego Porsche GT3, 42056, you think it will make a good investment, because I think the market is going to be flooded with them soon; and it doesn't look like that Lego is limiting the amount of sets you want to buy.

But then again, having the sets individual numbered, doesn't look like they will make an unlimited number of them either ?...

I'm hoping to get at least two of these when they hit the market in two days from now, here in the US.  Porsches are a big deal here in south California, and all over the world I think...

[Bold-Arrow]

14 minutes ago, Wimmer said:

Since I am new to all this anyways, let me ask for an opinion.  The new Lego Porsche GT3, 42056, you think it will make a good investment, because I think the market is going to be flooded with them soon; and it doesn't look like that Lego is limiting the amount of sets you want to buy.

But then again, having the sets individual numbered, doesn't look like they will make an unlimited number of them either ?...

I'm hoping to get at least two of these when they hit the market in two days from now, here in the US.  Porsches are a big deal here in south California, and all over the world I think...

Welcome the forums. 

You are posting a question in the wrong forum, this set haven't been released yet retirement is some way off   

This would be a more appreciate thread to follow : 

 

[Sprocket77]

15 minutes ago, Wimmer said:

Since I am new to all this anyways, let me ask for an opinion.  The new Lego Porsche GT3, 42056, you think it will make a good investment, because I think the market is going to be flooded with them soon; and it doesn't look like that Lego is limiting the amount of sets you want to buy.

But then again, having the sets individual numbered, doesn't look like they will make an unlimited number of them either ?...

I'm hoping to get at least two of these when they hit the market in two days from now, here in the US.  Porsches are a big deal here in south California, and all over the world I think...

Did you really put a question about a set which hasn't been released yet in the Retiring Soon thread?

Really???????? 

Too early as an investment, unless there's an initial surge of demand and they go out of stock and you can flip it.

Now mods, move this post.

[Wimmer]

Like I said,... I am new to this... It won't happen again...

[Sprocket77]

Just now, Wimmer said:

Like I said,... I am new to this... It won't happen again...

Don't say that, it probably will, we've all done it. There's a thread on the Porsche, you should go and read it from the first page before buying.

[fossilrock]

7 hours ago, ironbrick said:

This is a great analysis. Problem is there are going to be a lot more Lego Star Wars sets released in the coming years due to the new movies and Disney owning the license. I worry more about market saturation. Back when George Lucas was the sole owner of the franchise we still had talk that one day the license granted to Lego to produce Star Wars sets may run out. Had that of occurred your Lego Star Wars sets would be worth a lot more than they ever could with Disney holding the license. Could Lego Star Wars sets end up like Lego Super-Heroes sets as a result (i.e. horrid investment potential)? It is a definite possibility as more and more sets are released year after year.

Personally, I hope they do retire the Ewok Village and the Sandcrawler. Exclusives like the are sticking around much too long (hence, my disdain for the Lego Death Star). 

This years Star Wars waves were fairly weak IMO.  I wasn't that impressed with the Force Awakens sets released during the last two waves, and felt they could have done better.  However, I think we have some great things to look forward to.  I suspect we will see a rathtar set somewhere in the next few waves, and with Rogue One and Episode 8 disney and lego will be focusing their efforts on making sets to market for the movies.  There will be less OT and prequel sets, and that will make the value of the older ones go up as people look to buy some of these sets that they may have missed out on.  But they still need to produce a bantha, an updated cloud city, dagobah, etc and I think that will happen soon, so there will be sets popping up here and there that will spark demand and keep the interest going.  I think things will be fine with Star Wars, and I also think there are more people building and collecting star wars lego then ever before.  The market can definitely grow quite a bit, and it is, and with that growth, can be some potential even today with investing in the newer sets.  I don't buy all the gloom and doom from the pessimists, because that same doom and gloom was predicted before, and just about every set retired from 2014 has risen nicely less than six months after retirement.  Secondly, most people can't just rush out and buy every new set at once, and the same goes for investing.  Sometimes you miss something you may want or wanted to invest in something, but diverted your funds elsewhere.  I know I still want a few sets that are retired, and eventually i'll acquire them.. There's also some sets I wanted to invest in, but didn't meet my quota, because I was focusing on others.  In the end, it works out because things are still working out.  To conclude, I think the Star Wars line will do fine.  Even with the lackluster winter wave this year, and the rebel heavy summer wave, I do look forward to the Rogue One sets, and think that these Force Friday waves are going to be decent investments year after year because the machine is now rotating and it's going to be a furious ride over the next 5 years.  Just enjoy it.

 

[ironbrick]

On May 6, 2016 at 9:38 PM, Fcbarcelona101 said:

 

What about Assault on Hoth?!?!

That set sucks...  But some of the minifigs are cool! 

Note to Mods: This post was negative...and rightfully so, okay? 

[ironbrick]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

This years Star Wars waves were fairly weak IMO.  I wasn't that impressed with the Force Awakens sets released during the last two waves, and felt they could have done better.  However, I think we have some great things to look forward to.  I suspect we will see a rathtar set somewhere in the next few waves, and with Rogue One and Episode 8 disney and lego will be focusing their efforts on making sets to market for the movies.  There will be less OT and prequel sets, and that will make the value of the older ones go up as people look to buy some of these sets that they may have missed out on.  But they still need to produce a bantha, an updated cloud city, dagobah, etc and I think that will happen soon, so there will be sets popping up here and there that will spark demand and keep the interest going.  I think things will be fine with Star Wars, and I also think there are more people building and collecting star wars lego then ever before.  The market can definitely grow quite a bit, and it is, and with that growth, can be some potential even today with investing in the newer sets.  I don't buy all the gloom and doom from the pessimists, because that same doom and gloom was predicted before, and just about every set retired from 2014 has risen nicely less than six months after retirement.  Secondly, most people can't just rush out and buy every new set at once, and the same goes for investing.  Sometimes you miss something you may want or wanted to invest in something, but diverted your funds elsewhere.  I know I still want a few sets that are retired, and eventually i'll acquire them.. There's also some sets I wanted to invest in, but didn't meet my quota, because I was focusing on others.  In the end, it works out because things are still working out.  To conclude, I think the Star Wars line will do fine.  Even with the lackluster winter wave this year, and the rebel heavy summer wave, I do look forward to the Rogue One sets, and think that these Force Friday waves are going to be decent investments year after year because the machine is now rotating and it's going to be a furious ride over the next 5 years.  Just enjoy it.

 

To further your point: I think we are in uncharted territory as it applies to the Star Wars franchise. We definitely agree there. Back in 1999 a lot of, how to say this kindly...uneducated speculators (?), got burned by buying up mass quantities of the newest Star Wars figures. You could not talk sense into these people (as you can kind of guess I tried). While I don't think Lego will yet enter this territory it is a distinct possiblility that what occurred with Super-Heroes sets may be a reality for Lego Star Wars. I am not one to think that continued increases after retirement are all but guaranteed. Still, there will always be some spectacular sets that will slip through the cracks. I am growing weary of exclusives though as I think there are a lot of Sandcrawlers and Ewok Villages being hoarded. I still think modest price increases are in store after retirement, but nothing near the incredible returns seen on the Super Star Destroyer or Imperial Shuttle.