rlangston77 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 (edited) So right now after looking at the release / retirement chart that is on the first page of threads, you can see a direct correlation (mostly) between a new set being released and an old set being retired. The question that I really have is, does the fact that the Pet Shop has been out for so long effect it's future resale value? I mean, people have had an extra 2 years to purchase it over the Town Hall (town hall had a shelf life 2 years less is what I mean). Also, with the Brick Bank releasing, it's almost a guarantee that SOMETHING Is being retired, and VERY soon. The most likely candidate, again, is the Pet Shop. But it's possible they could do a mass retiring although it wouldn't make a lot of sense. Is it possible that they would retire the Parisian Restaurant BEFORE Pet Shop and Cinema??? Well, if Parisian gets retired, it will have lived 9 months less than Town Hall...seems like a very big longshot that it would be retired. However, if it was, due to the short length of time available it would go up in value tremendously. So we're left with 2 logical choices. Cinema and Pet Shop. I could see them both being retired at the same time. Cinema if retired will have been out nearly the exact same length as Town Hall...something to think about. But I question the desirability of Cinema. Is it something people will pay top dollar for after it's retired, 2 years after? I would have thought the Fire Brigade (Just under 4 year shelf life) would have been very very popular and it is selling at a premium but it is nothing too shocking at $400 US dollars and the Emporium (over 4 year shelf life) fetching just under $300. Maybe the fact that IF Cinema is retired, it's relatively short life span could push prices sky high and well above what Pet Shop might be able to get on the resale market after retirement.. Something to think about... Edited January 12, 2016 by rlangston77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosephMali Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Spread your bread upon the waters, perhaps it will return to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mos_Eisley Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, rlangston77 said: So right now after looking at the release / retirement chart that is on the first page of threads, you can see a direct correlation (mostly) between a new set being released and an old set being retired. The question that I really have is, does the fact that the Pet Shop has been out for so long effect it's future resale value? I mean, people have had an extra 2 years to purchase it over the Town Hall (town hall had a shelf life 2 years less is what I mean). Also, with the Brick Bank releasing, it's almost a guarantee that SOMETHING Is being retired, and VERY soon. The most likely candidate, again, is the Pet Shop. But it's possible they could do a mass retiring although it wouldn't make a lot of sense. Is it possible that they would retire the Parisian Restaurant BEFORE Pet Shop and Cinema??? Well, if Parisian gets retired, it will have lived 9 months less than Town Hall...seems like a very big longshot that it would be retired. However, if it was, due to the short length of time available it would go up in value tremendously. So we're left with 2 logical choices. Cinema and Pet Shop. I could see them both being retired at the same time. Cinema if retired will have been out nearly the exact same length as Town Hall...something to think about. But I question the desirability of Cinema. Is it something people will pay top dollar for after it's retired, 2 years after? I would have thought the Fire Brigade (Just under 4 year shelf life) would have been very very popular and it is selling at a premium but it is nothing too shocking at $400 US dollars and the Emporium (over 4 year shelf life) fetching just under $300. Maybe the fact that IF Cinema is retired, it's relatively short life span could push prices sky high and well above what Pet Shop might be able to get on the resale market after retirement.. Something to think about... A short shelf life with an unexpected exit for any major set is going to make the value go up, this isn't exclusive or surprising. Why do you think sets like the Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium haven't gone up to very impressive values? It has nothing to do with their desirability. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinchuan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 On October 20, 2015 at 3:49 PM, cladner said: On October 20, 2015 at 3:49 PM, cladner said: On October 20, 2015 at 3:49 PM, cladner said: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metin Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Could the higher price on PR compared to PS/PC affect its likelihood to be retired sooner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zskid00 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 How a set retires can be just as important as when it retires. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinchuan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sorry, my phone is glomming on to old posts... the longer a set is produced, the more likely hoarders will gather them up, as well as actual consumers getting theirs to build. From a simple perspective, the more sets listed post-retirement, the more undercutting in prices equals needing to hold the set longer as it appreciates at a much slower rate. In essence, we are our own worst enemy. in regards to when and what retires, too many variables. Brick Bank is a corner building, thus some will say that there is no need for two, and PC should retire. PS also has versatility as two buildings, so those with massive cities may wish to own several (or more) of these. And, although the scale is not the same, I can see people integrating one to several TB's into their displays, and extending the life of that set as well. As long as something continues to sell at a good clip, I don't subscribe to the "one gets released, one retires" philosophy. As long as people keep buying, and there is a whole new wave of "better than investing in gold" folks around, it will only further complicate logical speculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 32 minutes ago, zskid00 said: How a set retires can be just as important as when it retires. What do you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mos_Eisley Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, jaisonline said: What do you mean? Does it disappear in the night, or does it get labeled as retiring soon so that 5,000+ units can get scooped up by resellers? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthingslego9 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was wondering if the fact that the PC has a new box design and the PS was in the LEGO 2016 catalog would keep them from retiring this year? Is there a reason LEGO would re-design a box to retire it a few months later? Thank you for any insight you can provide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supreme4eva Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, allthingslego9 said: I was wondering if the fact that the PC has a new box design and the PS was in the LEGO 2016 catalog would keep them from retiring this year? Is there a reason LEGO would re-design a box to retire it a few months later? Thank you for any insight you can provide. Why would Lego waste money on production since it's going to retire soon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickU Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 (edited) 16 minutes ago, jaisonline said: What do you mean? There are imo, 4 different ways a set retires in regards to LEGO Shop at Home. In order from most desirable to least. 1. Set goes "Sold Out" without any notice or discount. 2. Set is labeled "Retiring Soon" but never goes on Sale. 2. Set goes on "Sale" discounted assuming its not coming back but never shows Retiring Soon 3. Set goes on "Sale" discounted assuming its not coming back but does shows Retiring Soon. Edited January 12, 2016 by BrickU 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcdfan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, jaisonline said: What do you mean? Justin, is that you...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthingslego9 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, Supreme4eva said: Why would Lego waste money on production since it's going to retire soon? Well that was my question. Why would LEGO waste money changing the box design on the PC if it was going to retire? Just wondering if they have ever done this. Changed a box design and then retired a set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, dcdfan said: Justin, is that you...? No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinchuan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 45 minutes ago, Metin said: Could the higher price on PR compared to PS/PC affect its likelihood to be retired sooner? Would 10 bucks dissuade you from buying it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Briggs Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, allthingslego9 said: I was wondering if the fact that the PC has a new box design and the PS was in the LEGO 2016 catalog would keep them from retiring this year? Is there a reason LEGO would re-design a box to retire it a few months later? Thank you for any insight you can provide. Their production capacity surely is at its limit. Maybe demand from retailers for Lego sets (especially Star Wars) was stronger than anticipated. Looking at EU LEGO Shop at Home it looks like they have problems supplying enough sets to meet demand. In that case retiring some sets that are less in demand than others or make difficulties of some kind in production might be an option to streamline production. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthingslego9 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said: Their production capacity surely is at its limit. Maybe demand from retailers for Lego sets (especially Star Wars) was stronger than anticipated. Looking at EU LEGO Shop at Home it looks like they have problems supplying enough sets to meet demand. In that case retiring some sets that are less in demand than others or make difficulties of some kind in production might be an option to streamline production. Thank you. Makes sense. I just wonder how much it costs to do a total re-design like that. Just seems strange to turn around and retire it. But stranger things have happened in the LEGO world this year. Thank you for your insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkhorseoflego Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 PR in stock in EU now, haven't checked US. Guess whoever said it was EOL before was wrong unsurprisingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metin Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 10 hours ago, Yinchuan said: Would 10 bucks dissuade you from buying it? Not I, but the average person comes and sees 5 of these types of buildings, one more expensive than the rest. Why get that one? Lifespan affected? It was just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 11 hours ago, darkhorseoflego said: PR in stock in EU now, haven't checked US. Guess whoever said it was EOL before was wrong unsurprisingly. I haven't seen anyone claim PR was already EOL. There's only one rumour here that PR will unexpectedly retire 'soon' together with PS and PC, based on a Singaporean Lego store manager who also last October (!) correctly predicted the imminent retirement of The Tumbler, when everyone said that was silly and highly unlikely and way too soon. From October till end of December (EU retirement of The Tumbler) it took still 2-3 months till the retirement came through. So PR will most likely still be available during Q1 2016, and we may see 'the dance' happening for PS, PC and PR during the coming months, until these sets MIGHT drop into retirement some time during the first half of this year. It's still all speculation, but if you haven't acquired your target number of these three sets yet, you're taking a risk to regret it at some time. In any case, this rumour was enough for me to take the plunge and order another PR last night after it became available again from being TooS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 All the modulars have been behaving so strangely recently on SAH it´s hard to see the wood from the trees. All I know is DO gets extra VIP points this month and is easy to find in a lot of shops, indicating oversupply so I´d keep an eye on it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregpj Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18 hours ago, lukiepete said: I had forgotten what the "redesign" for the VW Camper was, but according to this thread it was a couple of pieces on the front end of it. I was thinking that if TLG has to do a minor redesign like this, then they "retire" the set in-house before releasing the "redesigned" set (thus the reason for the two numbers on LEGO Shop at Home). I can't think what they might redesign for PR, PC or PS... but who knows? The extra pieces were not on the front end, they were on the roof. Two 2x4 while tiles to hold the roof together properly when it was lifted off. The change in piece count never affected the numbers on the S@H website.... Plenty of boxes have had minor changes or corrections and it never correlated to a new set number or a revision number or whatever. It appears that a change in box size did that. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froncz Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 How do you know when which set gets double VIP? I can see that DO has much more than say Brick Bank, but how do I learn it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rlangston77 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 (edited) If PR gets retired in the first half of 2016 it's value is going to sky rocket. It is a fantastic build, it's beautiful, its extremely enjoyable to put together. To me it is nearly a flawless set. Couple that with the fact that it hasn't been on the market very long for a modular and you have a recipe for a resellers dream. But as others have pointed out, the box redesign makes me think that this could be around till the end of the year. Couple this with the only new modular being the Bank (are there any others announced? I couldn't find anything) and it would seem odd to retire PR before one of the older sets like Pet Shop. At least until they announce 1-2 new Modulars. EDIT - I also read just now that someone claimed the Town Hall was retired because it wasn't selling well due to it's plain visual appeal. Can anyone confirm that the sales numbers were low? This would pretty much take away any chances that the Parisian will get retired anytime soon. Edited January 13, 2016 by rlangston77 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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