Retiring Soon - open speculation

[dcdfan]

Good call. I think you have just hit on the most exclusive set of 2015.

70171, 70172 & 70173 never left U.S. according to Brickset.

Edited August 9, 2015 by dcdfan

[GhostDad]

Off topic, but I think some of these brickpicker ads miss the mark.  While I'm flattered to be considered as a potential buyer of a Lexus SUV, in that price range I'm going to want something with a lot more cargo capacity.  The Lexus is going to take at least a couple hundred lego-buying road trips to pay for itself.  Now an ad for a "pre-owned" mid-size U-Haul truck is the sort of thing I might actually click on...

[Val-E]

So, here´s my revised list of retirement predictions for large sets for the last quarter of the year (EU):

75% or more chance of retirement this year

Sea Cow - Theme is retired and I feel the last production of this one has been made and now it is just when  it sells out - candidate for BF/CM promo discount.

Death Star - Been in and out of stock and lots of rumours about new version. Need to clear the decks for new SW stuff.

MK2 Crane + Cargo plane + Service truck- standard technic flagship lifecycle

50/50 chance

T1 VW, Tower Bridge - longest serving models, this could well be their last year.

Pet Shop - this one has been behaving strangely for a while now so it may stick around another 6 months.

X Wing - 6 months ago I was sure this was done but it seems to have had a reprieve and now the TIE is on sale they complement each other. Not sure what to say.

Ewok Village / Sand crawler - poor sellers, they may be cleared to make way for newer stuff.

Sydney Opera - depends on what happens with TB....

less than 50% chance

Palace Cinema,Tumbler, Fairground Mixer, Simpsons House - all quite recent but there may be a surprise or two in store.

Edited August 9, 2015 by valenciaeric

[dcdfan]

So, here´s my revised list of retirement predictions for large sets for the last quarter of the year (EU):

75% or more chance of retirement this year

Sea Cow - Theme is retired and I feel the last production of this one has been made and now it is just when  it sells out - candidate for BF/CM promo discount.

Death Star - Been in and out of stock and lots of rumours about new version. Need to clear the decks for new SW stuff.

MK2 Crane + Cargo plane - standard technic flagship lifecycle

50/50 chance

T1 VW, Tower Bridge - longest serving models, this could well be their last year.

Pet Shop - this one has been behaving strangely for a while now so it may stick around another 6 months.

X Wing - 6 months ago I was sure this was done but it seems to have had a reprieve and now the TIE is on sale they complement each other. Not sure what to say.

Ewok Village / Sand crawler - poor sellers, they may be cleared to make way for newer stuff.

Sydney Opera - depends on what happens with TB....

less than 50% chance

Palace Cinema,Tumbler, Fairground Mixer, Simpsons House - all quite recent but there may be a surprise or two in store.

Tower Bridge just got a brand new box...

[Ciglione]

Tower Bridge just got a brand new box...

If we do not see a brand new box for SOH we will know enough. It will go before TB.

[Guest]

Wouldn't service truck go before cargo plane? I thought cargo plane was a 2014 flagship. Mk2 and service truck were 2013? Is that wrong? 

[Val-E]

Wouldn't service truck go before cargo plane? I thought cargo plane was a 2014 flagship. Mk2 and service truck were 2013? Is that wrong? 

Fixed! All 3 should be gone this year.

[Guest]

Shouldn't cargo plane stick around with wheel loader? 

[Val-E]

If we do not see a brand new box for SOH we will know enough. It will go before TB.

Maybe with a Disney logo! I don´t think that the packaging determines the longevity of the product - all these sets apart from Sea Cow are going to have more production runs and Lego has maybe just phased in new box art on a general scale.

[mattyman]

So, here´s my revised list of retirement predictions for large sets for the last quarter of the year (EU):

75% or more chance of retirement this year

Sea Cow - Theme is retired and I feel the last production of this one has been made and now it is just when  it sells out - candidate for BF/CM promo discount.

Death Star - Been in and out of stock and lots of rumours about new version. Need to clear the decks for new SW stuff.

MK2 Crane + Cargo plane + Service truck- standard technic flagship lifecycle

50/50 chance

T1 VW, Tower Bridge - longest serving models, this could well be their last year.

Pet Shop - this one has been behaving strangely for a while now so it may stick around another 6 months.

X Wing - 6 months ago I was sure this was done but it seems to have had a reprieve and now the TIE is on sale they complement each other. Not sure what to say.

Ewok Village / Sand crawler - poor sellers, they may be cleared to make way for newer stuff.

Sydney Opera - depends on what happens with TB....

less than 50% chance

Palace Cinema,Tumbler, Fairground Mixer, Simpsons House - all quite recent but there may be a surprise or two in store.

is the tie on sale?  You mean the new UCS one?

[Fcbarcelona101]

is the tie on sale?  You mean the new UCS one?

I believe he meant to say it is available for sale now.

[mattyman]

Quite right. Thks

[Frank Brickowski]

Wouldn't service truck go before cargo plane? I thought cargo plane was a 2014 flagship. Mk2 and service truck were 2013? Is that wrong? 

The Cargo Plane was not the flagship set of its release year. So it will go end of the following year, meaning 2015.

[Guest]

What is the other 2014 flagship to hang around with 42030?  or is there one? 

[Val-E]

2013 crane summer Flagship, F1 racer (1Half) and Service truck (2half) Medium sets
2014 volvo flagship Cargo plane (1h) and offroad truck (2h) medium sets

2015 mercedes flagship, Le mans car (1h) and tracked crane (2h) medium sets

In EU we get 1 medium in 1h and 1 in 2h of every year with the flagship in the summer. In the US, everything seems to arrive in the summer, which is why 1h medium sets are rarer and command higher amounts in the US than in Europe.

Flags usually last 2.5 years and medium sets anything between 1.5 - 2.5 years.

 

Edited August 9, 2015 by valenciaeric

[fantomas007]

So, here´s my revised list of retirement predictions for large sets for the last quarter of the year (EU):

75% or more chance of retirement this year

Sea Cow - Theme is retired and I feel the last production of this one has been made and now it is just when  it sells out - candidate for BF/CM promo discount.

Death Star - Been in and out of stock and lots of rumours about new version. Need to clear the decks for new SW stuff.

MK2 Crane + Cargo plane + Service truck- standard technic flagship lifecycle

50/50 chance

T1 VW, Tower Bridge - longest serving models, this could well be their last year.

Pet Shop - this one has been behaving strangely for a while now so it may stick around another 6 months.

X Wing - 6 months ago I was sure this was done but it seems to have had a reprieve and now the TIE is on sale they complement each other. Not sure what to say.

Ewok Village / Sand crawler - poor sellers, they may be cleared to make way for newer stuff.

Sydney Opera - depends on what happens with TB....

less than 50% chance

Palace Cinema,Tumbler, Fairground Mixer, Simpsons House - all quite recent but there may be a surprise or two in store.

Sea Cow - 99 % - the whole serie is done, no reason to keep this set more. I also bet discounts on this set during black friday.

MK2 Crane - 95 % - technic sets has regular EOL after 2 - 2.5 years, and every winter 1 big technics is finishing.

T1 - 85 %  - cannot imagine leaving 3 cars together for next year

X Wing, Ewok - 75 % - too many UCS sets are now, plus new is coming. UCS has also regular production time of 2 - 2.5 years (expect neverending DS and short Bwing)

PS - 70 % - probably regular EOL as the oldest modular

SH - 50 % - if there is another Simpsons exclusive next year, 1 should finish

PC - 30 % - regularly just 1 modular should finish every year, but we remember the TH story...so there is still a possibility of another double EOL.

DS, TB, SO - almost unpredictable. Can finish this year, but also can be here for 2-3 years. If TB has a new box, then this one can be a neverending landmark set...

 

[Ciglione]

Sea Cow - 99 % - the whole serie is done, no reason to keep this set more. I also bet discounts on this set during black friday.

MK2 Crane - 95 % - technic sets has regular EOL after 2 - 2.5 years, and every winter 1 big technics is finishing.

T1 - 85 %  - cannot imagine leaving 3 cars together for next year

X Wing, Ewok - 75 % - too many UCS sets are now, plus new is coming. UCS has also regular production time of 2 - 2.5 years (expect neverending DS and short Bwing)

PS - 70 % - probably regular EOL as the oldest modular

SH - 50 % - if there is another Simpsons exclusive next year, 1 should finish

PC - 30 % - regularly just 1 modular should finish every year, but we remember the TH story...so there is still a possibility of another double EOL.

DS, TB, SO - almost unpredictable. Can finish this year, but also can be here for 2-3 years. If TB has a new box, then this one can be a neverending landmark set...

 

I agree with your predictions. 

However:

Seeing the last developments SOH might go before TB.

T1 is a very popular set. It might stick around to annoy us even more.

To my knowledge Ewok and X-wing are the last green Yoda boxes still around. So normally they should go. But I am not to sure about the X-wing. As some have already mentioned... It pairs nicely with the new Tie Fighter. 

I like your prediction about the PS and PC. This could easily become true. GE was out 4 years when it retired like PS is now. TH was out 2 years like PC is now as well. If a new modular is planned for the end of this year or early next year this might even be not such a bad prediction.

DS should be done normally. But haven't we heard these messages more than enough? First see then believe. Also one would expect a bad ass replacement for DS and SSD. I guess we have to wait for the early September announcements on the Ep VII sets to know more.

 

[Jericho]

PS is currently out of stock at LEGO online with a ship date at the of the month for new orders.

However, it is currently in low stock in Smyths in Ireland at €149.99, slightly cheaper but with free postage. Limited to 3 per cart. The DS is still available at €399.99 also.

I had figured PS would see its EOL this year, I doubt there will be double VIP points on it before then. May as well stock up now.

[fantomas007]

I agree with your predictions. 

However:

Seeing the last developments SOH might go before TB.

T1 is a very popular set. It might stick around to annoy us even more.

To my knowledge Ewok and X-wing are the last green Yoda boxes still around. So normally they should go. But I am not to sure about the X-wing. As some have already mentioned... It pairs nicely with the new Tie Fighter. 

I like your prediction about the PS and PC. This could easily become true. GE was out 4 years when it retired like PS is now. TH was out 2 years like PC is now as well. If a new modular is planned for the end of this year or early next year this might even be not such a bad prediction.

DS should be done normally. But haven't we heard these messages more than enough? First see then believe. Also one would expect a bad ass replacement for DS and SSD. I guess we have to wait for the early September announcements on the Ep VII sets to know more.

 

T1 is a great set, but too many cars are together. I hope it will finish soon, is I have many of them :-)

The same with TB - I have a lot of them from last year, since it has 4 years anniversary so the risk of EOL was great + I expected new landmark in this year. But if the news about a new box for TB are true, it is horrible - then we can expect a long life. And sitting on too many big and expensive boxes is investors nightmare... Probably they will keep this set till the new landmark come, and SOH can really finish sooner than TB - this set is really a TLG fail - too expensive (number of pieces / price) and not well designed. Plus SOH was on black friday sale last year - together with the sets, which were finishing (horizon train, AA, etc). SOH is a hot candidate for sooner EOL...

[Ciglione]

T1 is a great set, but too many cars are together. I hope it will finish soon, is I have many of them :-)

The same with TB - I have a lot of them from last year, since it has 4 years anniversary so the risk of EOL was great + I expected new landmark in this year. But if the news about a new box for TB are true, it is horrible - then we can expect a long life. And sitting on too many big and expensive boxes is investors nightmare... Probably they will keep this set till the new landmark come, and SOH can really finish sooner than TB - this set is really a TLG fail - too expensive (number of pieces / price) and not well designed. Plus SOH was on black friday sale last year - together with the sets, which were finishing (horizon train, AA, etc). SOH is a hot candidate for sooner EOL...

Do we have some seal codes on recent acquired SOH's? Would be interesting to see.

[Deadfraggle]

T1 is a great set, but too many cars are together. I hope it will finish soon, is I have many of them :-)

The same with TB - I have a lot of them from last year, since it has 4 years anniversary so the risk of EOL was great + I expected new landmark in this year. But if the news about a new box for TB are true, it is horrible - then we can expect a long life. And sitting on too many big and expensive boxes is investors nightmare... Probably they will keep this set till the new landmark come, and SOH can really finish sooner than TB - this set is really a TLG fail - too expensive (number of pieces / price) and not well designed. Plus SOH was on black friday sale last year - together with the sets, which were finishing (horizon train, AA, etc). SOH is a hot candidate for sooner EOL...

it's not a rumor regarding the new TB box. This is the pic from the LEGO store I posted on Saturday.

[mauro23]

The new box plays no much big role here... Compare the amount of parts!

4295 vs 4287 in the old version... 

 

Edited August 11, 2015 by mauro23

[GhostDad]

The new box plays no much big role here... Compare the amount of parts!

4295 vs 4287 in the old version... 

 

Darn it.  Now I have to call LEGO Shop at Home eight times, requesting 108 missing pieces for each of my old TB's...  What did they do anyway?  Add another car?

[biking_tiger]

8 pieces, and it's probably just a way of accounting for the extra bricks every set has.

Edited August 11, 2015 by biking_tiger

[inversion]

Darn it.  Now I have to call LEGO Shop at Home eight times, requesting 108 missing pieces for each of my old TB's...  What did they do anyway?  Add another car?

Probably some pieces retired from production.