Retiring Soon - open speculation

[areyounormal]

I'm an AFOL first and an investor second and I'll probably be most disappointed if I don't have at least one PR to build.... I guess I'll be pulling the trigger on one tonight.

PR is an awesome set - you will be happy you did

[biking_tiger]

All this talk of PR retiring now? 

Glitchy like a fox, LEGO Shop at Home. Glitchy like a fox. 

[gregpj]

Someone also posted on here that the Pet Shop has a very good part-out value.  I have no facts or Bricklink data to back up that claim, but parter-outers could also be purchasing this set in volume, increasing sales, and possibly extending its life.

http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPOV.asp?itemType=S&itemNo=10218&itemSeq=1&itemQty=1&breakType=M&itemCondition=N&incInstr=Y

Not bad.. as usual, their estimate must be taken with a grain of salt as it assumes you sell everything!

[jaisonline]

Oh man. I have 1 PC and exactly 0 PRs..... Now I'm stressing about this in the middle of an already stressful day at work. Thanks guys....

I thought I had tons of time on this one... probably still do, but I don't want to risk it.

I'm an AFOL first and an investor second and I'll probably be most disappointed if I don't have at least one PR to build.... I guess I'll be pulling the trigger on one tonight.

I'm 50% AFOL and 50% investor myself so I totally get not being able to build a cool set.

i think you are good with the PR with regards to time. It's still practically new at retail.  

I picked up PCs over the last couple of months (to avoid having none plus it looks cool) and own zero Pet Shops.  

[yu051131]

i got 22 PCS and 6 PS with non-retail price, i know it is a risky investment:(

[Pseudoty]

Honestly I hate this thread but I have to share what happened to me tonight. I finally started buying EV last week when another member made the observation that the limit on LEGO Shop at Home dropped from 5 to 1. I thought they are probably just making sure they have enough inventory  of SW exclusives for the holidays if they weren't going to do another production run of EV.  However, since it wasn't reduced to 2 but 1 I figured mine as well get some so I don't get TH. 

I ordered 4 from target as they offer me the best price at the time. 3 arrived crushed seals popped on 2 it looked like someone stomped on them to get them to fit in the shipping box. So I call target and want to do an exchange the friendly CS rep tells me only way to prevent this from happening again is to place 3 individual orders. So she is assisting me and while she is placing the orders the price jumps from $249 to $299. She was perplexed. I had to have a supervisor place the orders at $299 then refund me $150. 

Dont panic but lesson learned if you want one I would grab one sooner rather then later. 

[colossus]

Honestly I hate this thread but I have to share what happened to me tonight. I finally started buying EV last week when another member made the observation that the limit on LEGO Shop at Home dropped from 5 to 1. I thought they are probably just making sure they have enough inventory  of SW exclusives for the holidays if they weren't going to do another production run of EV.  However, since it wasn't reduced to 2 but 1 I figured mine as well get some so I don't get TH. 

I ordered 4 from target as they offer me the best price at the time. 3 arrived crushed seals popped on 2 it looked like someone stomped on them to get them to fit in the shipping box. So I call target and want to do an exchange the friendly CS rep tells me only way to prevent this from happening again is to place 3 individual orders. So she is assisting me and while she is placing the orders the price jumps from $249 to $299. She was perplexed. I had to have a supervisor place the orders at $299 then refund me $150. 

Dont panic but lesson learned if you want one I would grab one sooner rather then later. 

But I'm still looking for a tax free state to move to

Interesting observation.  My experience with Target has been the opposite.  When I ordered singles they were guaranteed to destroy either 1 or 2 corners or put a minimum of 3 creases on the front.  When I ordered 2 PC - one came out almost mint and the other was battered.  When I ordered 3 Tumblers (before the reseller crackdown) the 2 on the top/bottom got killed and the middle one was in OK condition. I haven't ordered from Target since because I just don't want to deal with the hassle.

But you are right - sooner than later is the rule.  In the BP guide that was written up for newbies somebody said it was more important to acquire something than to time getting them at a better price.  Missing a chance to make $150-$250 on a $150 set outweighs saving $25 on said set.  I didn't follow this advice for the JW stuff (thinking I would hold out for sales) - now I'm on the sidelines (for better or worse).

[GhostDad]

But I'm still looking for a tax free state to move to

Interesting observation.  My experience with Target has been the opposite.  When I ordered singles they were guaranteed to destroy either 1 or 2 corners or put a minimum of 3 creases on the front.  When I ordered 2 PC - one came out almost mint and the other was battered.  When I ordered 3 Tumblers (before the reseller crackdown) the 2 on the top/bottom got killed and the middle one was in OK condition. I haven't ordered from Target since because I just don't want to deal with the hassle.

But you are right - sooner than later is the rule.  In the BP guide that was written up for newbies somebody said it was more important to acquire something than to time getting them at a better price.  Missing a chance to make $150-$250 on a $150 set outweighs saving $25 on said set.  I didn't follow this advice for the JW stuff (thinking I would hold out for sales) - now I'm on the sidelines (for better or worse).

I find that Target packing beats all but LEGO Shop at Home on average.  On the other hand, yeah, if you wait till the last minute to order, you run the risk that they'll jack up the price above MSRP.

[diablo2112]

Let's not forget, 60051 and 60052 went "Sold Out" on most of the LEGO Shop at Home sites (except USA/Canada) back in February.  Was in that status for nearly 4 weeks, then came back in stock everywhere.  FYI.  Personally, I don't see all these sets as truly going early.  

[Val-E]

Yeah, I recall that and the conclusion at the time was that production had been pulled due to an issue with a common part (perhaps PF), which would be a reasonable explanation as to why both similar sets were not available.

We can also remember Ecto2 going AWOL from the site for a couple of weeks.

However, now these are not just random sets having the sold out tag now - there has to be a good reason why lego is not making them available despite having had stock and not correcting the "glitch" immediately.

There is more to it than that, I´m certain. Folks were happy to assume that DS selling out in the USA definitely meant forthcoming retirement and now it has happened in Europe why should it be put down to a mistake?

 

 

Edited July 22, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Ryan Junior]

lego ideas birds 21301 is "sold out" on Australia Lego.com.  That can't be done right? 

 

[Alucard1982]

Maybe, it's probably a glitch

[botchy123]

Maybe the whole modular series is coming to an end

 

 

[Val-E]

lego ideas birds 21301 is "sold out" on Australia Lego.com.  That can't be done right? 

What if it was a poor seller until the documentary came out and TLG had already decided to end production when the last batch was made (expecting it would take them through till the winter)?

If they haven´t decided to extend its life then it has to go to SOLD OUT status.........

[JM123]

Perhaps some folks here that think these things (sold out - retired) can't happen should search for the meaning of a 'black swan effect'. The author 'Nassim Taleb' wrote a very interesting book about this theory.. nice read for every brickinvestor.

 

[Esoka]

Hello,
So I had customer service France lego modular them are marked sold out because of a bug that took place yesterday, they will be available later after them.
Voili voiloo

[Levano]

On the dutch site of Lego Home PR, PS and PC are sold out. Good this be the end of all three?? PS and PC are likely to retire (4 years old now) but PR will be very soon. Another TH story?

[dcdfan]

On the dutch site of Lego Home PR, PS and PC are sold out. Good this be the end of all three?? PS and PC are likely to retire (4 years old now) but PR will be very soon. Another TH story?

Very very unlikely. People have reported CS says you can place orders over the phone.

[JeffProbst]

I'm sure (or maybe hope) that all three will be back shortly.

Glitch or not, it did make me panic buy a PR on ebay for RRP

[hannibal]

I would 100% agree with your PS thought.  Like the new Detective's Office, the PS quietly slides nicely in-between other modulars unlike the PC and PR.  

This is what people said about the TH: "It doesn't fit with the rest of the buildings on the street"  or ..."oh, its this horrible orange building" ..."oh...it sticks out as a sore thumb..who wants to put that with the rest of the modulars" ...or "at £150 its way too expensive compared to other ones..there are better modulars to invest in blah blah blah.."

The moment it disappeared and started to appreciate very rapidly, people changed their minds! Which proves its all mind trick.
For investors: They changed their minds because it started making money, so it's no longer the ugly duckling. Quickly the investors started to see this set as  and forgot about the looks. So now they praise it how amazing it is....yeah sure!
For collectors: The moment it disappeared, they all realised it's a must thing regardless of the price and no town is complete without the Town Hall! 

It's a funny world!

[Frank Brickowski]

TLG will surely consider hurting resellers with unpredictable decisions (even more then in the past) - the infamous "chaos" Ed startet talking about last year. However, I don't think they will focus on this in a way that really hurts their sales on the other hand, making them lose profit unnecessarily. Retiring 3 (at least moderately popular) modulars at the same time should in fact hurt them as much as the resellers (and also irritate regular customers, which TLG has always been trying to avoid). This is why I don't believe that this is really happening. Even more so since Kwik-E-Mart, a new train and a new architcture set are also in there. Making the early retirement rumors even less probable imo.

[Ed Mack]

Perhaps some folks here that think these things (sold out - retired) can't happen should search for the meaning of a 'black swan effect'. The author 'Nassim Taleb' wrote a very interesting book about this theory.. nice read for every brickinvestor.

 

Very interesting....

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

 

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
3. The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.^[1] More technically, in the scientific monograph Silent Risk , Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".^[2]

 

Whether it is a glitch or not, my question to everyone is why are three of the Modulars on the SOLD OUT list and hundreds of other sets are not?  There has to be some reason for these sets to have triggered the "glitch." 

Edited July 22, 2015 by Ed Mack

[fahadshahid]

I can confirm from a reliable source that: PS - new production run under way. PR - new production run under way. DS - gone for good. I guess there's no surprises here.

[mattyman]

and PC?

[TLKC]

kwik e ? i dont have one