Retiring Soon - open speculation

[jay4e]

looks like Grevious' Wheel Bike (75040) has gone call to check at LEGO Shop at Home.  Now its a small set so that does not mean it will definitely go to sold out, but it is on sale just about everywhere at the moment so couldnt hurt to keep an eye on it, and grab some if you have a quota you want to hit.

Edited July 17, 2015 by jay4e

[Darth_Raichu]

Yeah, I know. .. everyone is laughing to the bank. NOW!
But, for perspective the same thing was said back in 2006 with realtors.  Back then the line was similar "yeah, this is easy money, just buy it and sell it at this "overinflated price", and your money will double in 5 years".  My wife worked in real estate, and we knew it was going to be bad.  So, we didn't buy that line at that time either, and when the bubble burst so many of our friends and neighbors went down.  A few years ago when the market was rock bottom and interest rates were good was the time to reinvest, and we did.  Now the market is going back up again.  Sometimes it's good to constantly reanalyze the market.  I just think over the next few years the lego after market is going to do a recorrect. 

Ed is right…and yes, I do sleep at night.  I just think it's going to get to the point, where resellers are just holding and storing too much stock of large lego sets that may land them a few bucks as the market goes through a correction.  

So, based on your analysis, are you out of LEGO investing ? If not, why not ?

[fossilrock]

So, based on your analysis, are you out of LEGO investing ? If not, why not ?

I'm definitely not out as a collector and builder.  Ed's sage like advice is sound, and I agree with pretty much all of what he said.  There's more than likely always going to be a large lego collectors market.  I dont see that collapsing, just like we didn't see "tech stocks" being killed by the dot bomb, and the housing market is recovering and so the housing collapse didn't kill the demand for housing and real estate, but it's taken almost a decade for it to get back on even ground.  I think the same thing is bound to happen (is happening) here.

Look at all the awesome MOC's out there, the shows, etc.  This stuff is an art form, and will remain so.  So, there's definitely a lot to look forward too.

I'll still buy the ep7 sw sets, and the new exclusives I like that are thrown out there that I think are really great.  Building the UCS stuff is a fun hobby, and I won't quit that or stop collecting in those. But, i'm out in buying tons of multiples of every set, especially the large ones..  For example, right now, I have 4 tower of orthancs.  It's very tempting to go out and say "just 2 more"... but when I realize how many people out there have 4, let alone 30 to 40 of these, then I realize it's going to be many many years (maybe 5 years to 10 years) before I think of selling them.  I'm ok with that, but i'm not buying anymore.  I was planning on buying a few SOH's this month and maybe another EV, but I'm having second thoughts about those too, and think putting that 600 elsewhere will be a better move.  Like I said, it's obvious lego has turned to manipulating the aftermarket and is now preying on the resellers that scoop up everything.  Why should they quickly retire it, when they can lengthen the retirement of a set by just pushing out another 2000 or 3000 inventory, and make another half million.   There always seems to be another run, and then another.  It's a slow trickle, but it inflates the bubble.  Lego has obviously adapted, and knows they can make money by preying on this mentality, by the ever so slow phase out, and so they are.  It's evident. 

Edited July 17, 2015 by fossilrock

[Val-E]

Yeah... but when you analyse the sales prices as well... average sale price for 10233 HE is 137 euro. Which is not shockingly high. That is why they are sold in that quantity. I may presume. What if the average asking price would be 200 euro. Would it sell in those quantities as well?

EEE is doing well/better cause it was a lego exclusive. Could not be bought at other retailers. Thus more scarce. Not overly hoarded.  

Exactly, it´s not just the Qty. but the average price that counts.

In Europe, TH is now out of the reach of a lot of people whereas R2 is still at a relatively affordable price like EEE and HE. 

Other sets like SC and AA are comparative duds as they neither sell a lot or sell at a high price and are uber hoarded,

SSD, HH and modulars seem to be the consistent blue chip sellers.

[cobrakai]

looks like Grevious' Wheel Bike (75040) has gone call to check at LEGO Shop at Home.  Now its a small set so that does not mean it will definitely go to sold out, but it is on sale just about everywhere at the moment so couldnt hurt to keep an eye on it, and grab some if you have a quota you want to hit.

Jedi Interceptor and Snowspeeder should follow soon.  I assume Snowspeeder>Wheel Bike>Interceptor in popularity.  Maybe they will keep snowspeeder around a little longer until the AT AT goes?

[zskid00]

Why should they quickly retire it, when they can lengthen the retirement of a set by just pushing out another 2000 or 3000 inventory, and make another half million.   

Because they have to get Star Wars TFA sets everywhere by September, they have to ensure stock levels at retailers for the Christmas shopping season, and they also have a slew of new themes and sets coming out later this year in addition to the winter sets coming in early 2016.  It is not as simple as LEGO deciding that they want to extend the life of a product and making another big run or two.  They do have production limitations and other contractual obligations to meet that could prevent them from making more Death Stars at the drop of a hat.  Certainly this happens from time to time but at some point they have to pull the plug and move on.  Last year the Grand Emporium was on backorder for months and gobbled up by investors at every opportunity and yet LEGO still retired it.  Some thought R2-D2 would be around for the new movie and it retired.  Certainly the Haunted House needed to last through Halloween but it was gone before then.  

[micbelt]

Yeah, I know. .. everyone is laughing to the bank. NOW!
But, for perspective the same thing was said back in 2006 with realtors.  Back then the line was similar "yeah, this is easy money, just buy it and sell it at this "overinflated price", and your money will double in 5 years".  My wife worked in real estate, and we knew it was going to be bad.  So, we didn't buy that line at that time either, and when the bubble burst so many of our friends and neighbors went down.  A few years ago when the market was rock bottom and interest rates were good was the time to reinvest, and we did.  Now the market is going back up again.  Sometimes it's good to constantly reanalyze the market.  I just think over the next few years the lego after market is going to do a recorrect. 

Ed is right…and yes, I do sleep at night.  I just think it's going to get to the point, where resellers are just holding and storing too much stock of large lego sets that may land them a few bucks as the market goes through a correction.  

I completely disagree with your comparison. I have been in the mortgage business since 2005 and had a prime seat to the collapse. The mortgage/real estate collapse was primarily due to subprime loans being given to borrowers that should never have been given loans and having those loans sold on the secondary market as mortgage backed securities. Demand increased dramatically due to the large number of people that were now able to get loans that should not have been. Everything was based on a very questionable foundation. and collapsed when the subprime borrowers started defaulting on their mortgages and massive hedge funds and secondary market took a huge hit when people actually started paying attention to the fact that these mortgage backed securities were full of these subprime loans packaged together.

Are people buying fake Lego now or something? No. If anything, margins will decrease some and it will cause people like yourself to get out of investing and a thinning of the herd will occur. People will move onto other things as a "get rich" investing medium.

[trekgate502]

I just had to ship a EEE across the US for a friend who ran out of stock and it was profitable for him.  In the US you can still get the EEE for below MSRP from Lego when you factor in promos and rewards so I actually placed an order in the last couple of weeks.  Everything in life is not instant returns.

I just pulled this quote from a post in the Lego R2 D2 thread from September 2014.  

This set is available everywhere (except maybe Walmart.com) in the US - where Star Wars sets are normally sold out before the rest of the world because of high demand. So why do you guys / gals think it's retiring? Am I missing something? 

About the time mscheaf said that I was GPS locating R2's and acquiring them.  I would give anything (at close to msrp) to have back the 50 that I flipped for $40 margin each.  I have some but on them I regret the quick flip.

It has not even been a year and it has over doubled in the states.

I admit SC has not done well and I am out of it.

Let see R2, TH, GE and a host of other ones just retired.  Even Grand Emporium the cheapest on ebay is right under $310 and it has not been retired that long.

This quote from the Grand Emporium thread from September 2014

This thing has been close to retiring do long according to everyone I am just not going to believe it until I see a retired tag at lego.

I do not know what everyone is expecting but these returns to date are pretty darn good.

It has not even been a year.  The next retirement wave whatever size it is has not yet come for this year.  You need some patience.

Emazers says you need to hold several years for maximum appreciation I think he said it was 3 years was really the beginning of the best point to do it do not remember exactly.

Everyone has their own method and means.  It is fine to assert and portray risk to other investors.  I think that is fair.  To beat it to death well that is another thing in my opinion.

Maybe this thread should be renamed the "Retiring From Lego Soon ? - Open Speculation" thread.

For me I am in this adventure.

ALL OF THIS reminds me of this movie quote.  Everyone can decide on their own if you are John or Dennis.

John Hammond: I'm sorry about your financial problems, Dennis, I really am, but they are your problems. 

Dennis Nedry: Oh, you're right, John, you're absolutely right. You know, everything's my problem. 

John Hammond: I will not get drawn into another financial debate with you, Dennis. I really will not! 

Dennis Nedry: There'd be hardly any debate at all. 

John Hammond: I don't blame people for their mistakes. But I do ask that they pay for them. 

Dennis Nedry: Thanks, Dad.

 

[fossilrock]

I completely disagree with your comparison. I have been in the mortgage business since 2005 and had a prime seat to the collapse. The mortgage/real estate collapse was primarily due to subprime loans being given to borrowers that should never have been given loans and having those loans sold on the secondary market as mortgage backed securities. Demand increased dramatically due to the large number of people that were now able to get loans that should not have been. Everything was based on a very questionable foundation. and collapsed when the subprime borrowers started defaulting on their mortgages and massive hedge funds and secondary market took a huge hit when people actually started paying attention to the fact that these mortgage backed securities were full of these subprime loans packaged together.

Are people buying fake Lego now or something? No. If anything, margins will decrease some and it will cause people like yourself to get out of investing and a thinning of the herd will occur. People will move onto other things as a "get rich" investing medium.

I agree with you on that, but so many bought a house from 2004 to 2007.  Obviously that was the worst time to buy a home, when the market is going up like that but it was very much like a herd mentality ran by greed.  now don't get me wrong, there were people that definitely sold at the top of the market and made a ton of money during that time before the collapse, and at that point was the time to sit back and wait it out.  And so many bought in at the top of the market and bought at prices they should have walked away from.  The same mentality that was taking place back then, can be seen on this site when these "retiring sets" appear..

Ill take being the black sheep.  The only one that seems to not be saying all is pie-in-the sky is a small handful of people here.  So, I don't think i'm really part of the "herd".  You're obviously not seeing the pattern.

Would you have bought a home from 2004 to 2007?  I didn't.  By your comment, you would have said "just do it".. you're part of the herd by not buying into it.

Edited July 17, 2015 by fossilrock

[trekgate502]

Because they have to get Star Wars TFA sets everywhere by September, they have to ensure stock levels at retailers for the Christmas shopping season, and they also have a slew of new themes and sets coming out later this year in addition to the winter sets coming in early 2016.  It is not as simple as LEGO deciding that they want to extend the life of a product and making another big run or two.  They do have production limitations and other contractual obligations to meet that could prevent them from making more Death Stars at the drop of a hat.  Certainly this happens from time to time but at some point they have to pull the plug and move on.  Last year the Grand Emporium was on backorder for months and gobbled up by investors at every opportunity and yet LEGO still retired it.  Some thought R2-D2 would be around for the new movie and it retired.  Certainly the Haunted House needed to last through Halloween but it was gone before then.  

I was discussing this with my family the other night.  Of course watch the Death Star live on for another 5 years after I say this.

But I compared R2 and HH and their ill timed retirements.

You know what I think about it ? I think that Lego intentionally does this killing products at perceived bad times.  Yes I said that.

Why ? What makes something valuable ?  You can't get it.

So if the Death Star goes what happens ? people will be this Christmas or next saying hey remember that huge Lego Death Star I want one.

Oh wait I can't get it ? Are you serious ? Wow but I want this set and this set and this set too.  When will they go away ? Oh no I better hurry up and buy this one I want before they are gone.

I think the retirement of sets propels consumers of Lego to realize that it will not be available forever and that makes them to buy sets that are available that they want.

I think it is a well orchestrated plan by Lego.

[fossilrock]

I was discussing this with my family the other night.  Of course watch the Death Star live on for another 5 years after I say this.

But I compared R2 and HH and their ill timed retirements.

You know what I think about it ? I think that Lego intentionally does this killing products at perceived bad times.  Yes I said that.

Why ? What makes something valuable ?  You can't get it.

So if the Death Star goes what happens ? people will be this Christmas or next saying hey remember that huge Lego Death Star I want one.

Oh wait I can't get it ? Are you serious ? Wow but I want this set and this set and this set too.  When will they go away ? Oh no I better hurry up and buy this one I want before they are gone.

I think the retirement of sets propels consumers of Lego to realize that it will not be available forever and that makes them to buy sets that are available that they want.

I think it is a well orchestrated plan by Lego.

But the chances are good there is going to be another Death Star next year for rogue one.  And that's the other way Lego preys on the aftermarket.  While the old sets rise to prices that many balk against, lego just re-releases the set again.  It might not be the same set, but it's close enough to satiate demand.

[trekgate502]

But the chances are good there is going to be another Death Star next year for rogue one.  And that's the other way Lego preys on the aftermarket.  While the old sets rise to prices that many balk against, lego just re-releases the set again.  It might not be the same set, but it's close enough to satiate demand.

You may be right on the Death Star, maybe, who knows or you could be wrong.  The same with me.

That being said I see the new non UCS X Wing Poe's and I like it and want one, but WOW do I regret not hanging onto my 9493's.

[micbelt]

I agree with you on that, but so many bought a house from 2004 to 2007.  Obviously that was the worst time to buy a home, when the market is going up like that but it was very much like a herd mentality ran by greed.  now don't get me wrong, there were people that definitely sold at the top of the market and made a ton of money during that time before the collapse, and at that point was the time to sit back and wait it out.  And so many bought in at the top of the market and bought at prices they should have walked away from.  The same mentality that was taking place back then, can be seen on this site when these "retiring sets" appear..
Ill take being the black sheep.  The only one that seems to not be saying all is pie-in-the sky is a small handful of people here.  So, I don't think i'm really part of the "herd".  You're obviously not seeing the pattern.

Would you have bought a home from 2004 to 2007?  I didn't.  By your comment, you would have said "just do it".. you're part of the herd by not buying into it.

I don't see anyone being pie-in-the-sky here. I see people speculating about when a set is going to retire and speculating about returns on investment and then I see you comparing the Lego market to the worst collapse in the world's economy since the great depression. I don't really appreciate you calling me or other people on here "herd" when you have no idea what people's motivation, risk threshold or even buy-in for what they are investing in.

[redcell]

I agree with you on that, but so many bought a house from 2004 to 2007.  Obviously that was the worst time to buy a home, when the market is going up like that but it was very much like a herd mentality ran by greed.  now don't get me wrong, there were people that definitely sold at the top of the market and made a ton of money during that time before the collapse, and at that point was the time to sit back and wait it out.  And so many bought in at the top of the market and bought at prices they should have walked away from.  The same mentality that was taking place back then, can be seen on this site when these "retiring sets" appear..
Ill take being the black sheep.  The only one that seems to not be saying all is pie-in-the sky is a small handful of people here.  So, I don't think i'm really part of the "herd".  You're obviously not seeing the pattern.

Would you have bought a home from 2004 to 2007?  I didn't.  By your comment, you would have said "just do it".. you're part of the herd by not buying into it.

Although there were certainly investors who bought houses with great abandon between 2004-2007, the crash was precipitated by average homebuyers who got into mortgages that they didn't understand, shouldn't have had, and couldn't pay.  There is nothing comparable between the subprime buying patterns of that era and the reseller feeding frenzy in the days/weeks surrounding a Lego set selling out.   

[zobel0022]

Lots of new "Retiring soon" tags added on LEGO Shop at Home but nothing of real opportunity in my opinion...70147, 70135, 10500, 79117, 70145, 60014, 70144, 70163, 60012, 70141, 70161

[gregpj]

I agree with you on that, but so many bought a house from 2004 to 2007.  Obviously that was the worst time to buy a home, when the market is going up like that but it was very much like a herd mentality ran by greed.  now don't get me wrong, there were people that definitely sold at the top of the market and made a ton of money during that time before the collapse, and at that point was the time to sit back and wait it out.  And so many bought in at the top of the market and bought at prices they should have walked away from.  The same mentality that was taking place back then, can be seen on this site when these "retiring sets" appear..
Ill take being the black sheep.  The only one that seems to not be saying all is pie-in-the sky is a small handful of people here.  So, I don't think i'm really part of the "herd".  You're obviously not seeing the pattern.

Would you have bought a home from 2004 to 2007?  I didn't.  By your comment, you would have said "just do it".. you're part of the herd by not buying into it.

One _very large_ flaw with your argument is LEGO sells their product for MSRP and nothing more. There are no peaks or valleys against MSRP.. in fact, LEGO only raises their price over time. When resellers buy them, most of the time they are bought at a discount... people were NOT buying houses at a discount, they were bought at an inflated price.

Now before you talk about resellers gobbling up product from other resellers, yes it happens, but not nearly as frequently as buying direct from retailers.

You are entitled to your opinion on what you see as a pattern, but so is everyone else. The pattern I see is this:

1. LEGO makes products.
2. LEGO sells products.
3. Resellers buy some (or a lot) of those products.
4. Resellers sell those products at inflated prices because they want to make money after fees/shipping/etc.
5. LEGO demand increases.
6. LEGO increases price because demand increases.
7. Resellers increase prices because they can.
8. Rinse, repeat.

The only way I see this falters is if demand for LEGO stops increasing. Eventually it may flatten, but so far so good and if the day comes that LEGO is forced to reduce production, that also bodes well for products people have been long term hoarding. Why? Because nostalgia then sets in.

 

[micbelt]

One _very large_ flaw with your argument is LEGO sells their product for MSRP and nothing more. There are no peaks or valleys against MSRP.. in fact, LEGO only raises their price over time. When resellers buy them, most of the time they are bought at a discount... people were NOT buying houses at a discount, they were bought at an inflated price.

Now before you talk about resellers gobbling up product from other resellers, yes it happens, but not nearly as frequently as buying direct from retailers.

You are entitled to your opinion on what you see as a pattern, but so is everyone else. The pattern I see is this:

1. LEGO makes products.
2. LEGO sells products.
3. Resellers buy some (or a lot) of those products.
4. Resellers sell those products at inflated prices because they want to make money after fees/shipping/etc.
5. LEGO demand increases.
6. LEGO increases price because demand increases.
7. Resellers increase prices because they can.
8. Rinse, repeat.

The only way I see this falters is if demand for LEGO stops increasing. Eventually it may flatten, but so far so good and if the day comes that LEGO is forced to reduce production, that also bodes well for products people have been long term hoarding. Why? Because nostalgia then sets in.

 

Exactly. I talk to people that bought their homes in 2006-2007 all the time and most of the time they owe MORE than their home is worth now. The only way this would be comparable to LEGO and the DS is if 5 years from now the DS is worth less than the $399.99 MSRP. Like mentioned earlier, even in the case that it is worth MSRP 5 years from now, some people have buy-in below $300, so they still would not lose money. They would lose time and inventory space, but not money. 

[romoore245]

Lots of new "Retiring soon" tags added on LEGO Shop at Home but nothing of real opportunity in my opinion...70147, 70135, 10500, 79117, 70145, 60014, 70144, 70163, 60012, 70141, 70161

I looked at the Lego site pretty cool list of retiring I may have missed a few but here is what I saw

[lego rules]

Sandcrawler!

[dcdfan]

I looked at the Lego site pretty cool list of retiring I may have missed a few but here is what I saw

cute...

[Darth_Raichu]

I looked at the Lego site pretty cool list of retiring I may have missed a few but here is what I saw

Was that from US S@H site ? My search did not return the bottom 4 sets

 

NVM I saw the Photoshop. 

[dcdfan]

Was that from US LEGO Shop at Home site ? My search did not return the bottom 4 sets

he's making a joke...

[fantomas007]

he's making a joke...

probably... also EU SAH is without these sets... Retiring soon of DS and EV is real, but not Sandcrawler (just 1 year after release) and for sure not the Tie...

[tacsniper]

So I emailed TRU about the JW Polybags and I got a response the line is being discontinued? Can this explain why 75920 is already "Sold Out" at LEGO Shop at Home. Why we are seeing 20% off and why some Americans are reporting some JW sets on clearance in their local WM? Can this be real? I personally don't believe it is, as this is printing mad money for Lego. At the end of the day, it all depends on what contracts they have with whoever produced JW. You think Lego will at least have the license the produce/sell till Christmas.

[Foxhound]

Btw, Triple EEE is tagged with "Retiring Soon".