Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Darth_Raichu]

​Do we have proof of this?  I work on POS systems, and usually a "sold out" label is only triggered when it's completely gone from inventory from all stores (including stores online), otherwise just OOS will appear for that specific store, as techincally there is still stock in the centralized inventory.  I would highly doubt lego would have separate POS systems, and that it is all part of a centralized system.

​

You guys are confusing OOS with Sold Out. They obviously are not used by the Lego group as the same label.  OOS means that it's out of stock at that specific store, and yes you are not going to see that information at a store, unless you go up to the registers, and ask the sales associate.  He can usually check to see if any inventory is in place at that store by accessing the POS.  Sold out means that all the inventory is gone from all the retail outlets including the online store.  Once it hits sold out, it tends to get the "retirement tag" when they do their inventory updates.  My guess, is the retirement tag is a manual trigger, while the OOS and Sold Out tags are automated from the POS system.  That's usually how it works.
 

​

I do not think we are the ones who are confusing the two  Again, the only place where we see the "Sold Out" label/tag is S@H website

[fossilrock]

Once agian, I stated it as plain as day if you read that paragraph more carefuly.  You're just not comprehending what I said.

[zskid00]

Sold out means that all the inventory is gone from all the retail outlets including the online store. 

​That is not true.  The only place we can see "sold out" status is on Shop at Home.  That is only in reference to the Shop at Home online inventory.  There have been many cases where people still find sets in LEGO retail stores that have been marked as "sold out" on Shop at Home.  That stock is most likely not going to be replenished, however once a set hits "sold out" on Shop at Home, it does not mean that the set is completely gone from all LEGO retail stores. 

[fossilrock]

​That is not true.  The only place we can see "sold out" status is on Shop at Home.  That is only in reference to the Shop at Home online inventory.  There have been many cases where people still find sets in LEGO retail stores that have been marked as "sold out" on Shop at Home.  That stock is most likely not going to be replenished, however once a set hits "sold out" on Shop at Home, it does not mean that the set is completely gone from all LEGO retail stores. 

​Then, if that is the case, it could mean a number of things.  A set could have been returned to a store after they were sold out.  OOS could mean there is potential more stock would be allocated, while Sold Out pretty much states you're not going to see anymore allocated to that store.  That could change in rare circumstances... for example, let's say they had stock returned from another retail outlet, and put it back online.  That could happen. 

However, if the Tower doesn't reappear online at lego.com over the next few months, I think it will be telling.  Let's mark it down that yesterday the set depleted from other retail outlets online.  Let's see how long it takes before the Sold Out label hits, because I think it's a great case in point to how the system works.  I  know there are a few left in the lego stores around my region.  However, the OOS 30 days label is currently on the site. If the OOS 30 days label never changes, and the final stock depletes out of the local stores, and all the sudden "Sold Out" appears a month or two later, we can start to see the pattern.  The red 5, and PC have been this way for a while now too, sitting mostly at OOS 30 days.  Why don't they have the sold out label, if they more than likely aren't going to appear again online?  But, you can find them at the local stores.

And yes, lego isn't like many other retailers that allow you to check online to see if they have something in stock at the store. But, sales associate managers probably have access to their localized inventory at their store.

Edited May 19, 2015 by fossilrock

[gregpj]

Once agian, I stated it as plain as day if you read that paragraph more carefuly.  You're just not comprehending what I said.

​Lego's VIP system is a separate system from the retail POS system which is likely different from the online retail POS system. It doesn't mean they don't talk in some way and that single reports can't be generated against multiple databases. We know the VIP system is separate for two reasons: account transactions take up to 24 hours to be reflected in your account (this tells us a separate process allocates & verifies those points) and people who've been banned by S@H were able to spend their VIP points in the stores. Oh yeah, that last point also means that the store and online systems are likely separate.

It does NOT mean their inventory system is separate which is more of what you're referring to when talking about OOS vs Sold Out.

I designed a VIP system for a POS that I created for a non-retail gaming environment. Unless the systems are created from the ground up at the same time, they'll always be separate from each other but modified to work with each other. It's highly unlikely LEGO has done that.

[gregpj]

PS This is the retirement speculation thread not the "How Does Lego's Retail and Online POS Systems Work Speculation Thread" so myself included, further posts may be sent to the trash bin.

[fossilrock]

PS This is the retirement speculation thread not the "How Does Lego's Retail and Online POS Systems Work Speculation Thread" so myself included, further posts may be sent to the trash bin.

​It's relative, because it's referring to the Tower of Orthanc, and from the available system data that we see, when it might retire.  There's obviously a pattern to when you can begin when a set is going to retire, and a big part of determining that is from what is going on at the retail outlets, is it not?

[zskid00]

TOO has been in and out of online retailers for months and on backorder at LEGO many times in late 2014 and early 2015.  It is most likely a sign that the end is coming sooner rather than later, but it is not a new indicator for this set.  

[gregpj]

​It's relative, because it's referring to the Tower of Orthanc, and from the available system data that we see, when it might retire.  There's obviously a pattern to when you can begin when a set is going to retire, and a big part of determining that is from what is going on at the retail outlets, is it not?

This flip-flopping of labels and statuses has been discussed ad nauseam multiple times. Nobody ever follows through on the promise to track statuses or nobody has ever found a pattern worth more than pure speculation.

Basically what I'm saying is that the rampant speculation of different statuses has yielded a giant zero of information except a handful of posts in these threads so us old-timers get tired of it really quickly when it escalates beyond "I am speculating" into the "This is how it works" realm. If you go back and read your own posts, you'll see that you claim as fact much speculation and that just doesn't fly around here. Speculate, don't claim to know the truth of how all these systems work, how Target bans resellers, and how Online statuses and In-Store statuses are related ... is all I ask.

** Edit... I'm not just crapping on you either, FWIW. You're just the latest victim. **

Edited May 19, 2015 by gregpj

[fossilrock]

it's all good.  But I am keeping tabs of the statuses, just for my own account, and i've noticed a pattern. While many don't care to keep tabs, I tend to think there is very much a pattern. I also understand point of sales systems because that's a big part of my job.  It's all good though.  If i'm allowed to answer the one guys point - yes, I think inventory and individual stores would have their own allocated databases and servers, but it's all tied into a centralized system, including all account information... Almost all retail outlets like WM, Target, B&N, are all similar in how they are setup.  Regardless, that's all i'm going to say.. i'm done discussing it further.

Back to speculating.  I think the Tower is going to be impossible to find online at 199.99 plus tax from here on out.  And you can still find some at the stores at that price.  If i'm wrong, i'll own it.  AND YES, thats MY OPINION. Back during the 2xVIP day it went out, but it was still available at a few other outlets.  But, i've been paying attention to this set for a while now, and this is the first time where I think your chance of getting it online at that price is over. The patterns are there for those that choose to pay attention. The patterns are also there for Red 5, PS, TB, UN Building and a few others.

Edited May 19, 2015 by fossilrock

[mscheaf]

This flip-flopping of labels and statuses has been discussed ad nauseam multiple times. Nobody ever follows through on the promise to track statuses or nobody has ever found a pattern worth more than pure speculation.

Basically what I'm saying is that the rampant speculation of different statuses has yielded a giant zero of information except a handful of posts in these threads so us old-timers get tired of it really quickly when it escalates beyond "I am speculating" into the "This is how it works" realm. If you go back and read your own posts, you'll see that you claim as fact much speculation and that just doesn't fly around here. Speculate, don't claim to know the truth of how all these systems work, how Target bans resellers, and how Online statuses and In-Store statuses are related ... is all I ask.

** Edit... I'm not just crapping on you either, FWIW. You're just the latest victim. **

​

Thank you thank you thank you. A lot of people who have been around only a few months would do well to read this thread, if not from the beginning, at least that last 50 pages or so and see how passing of speculation as irrefutable fact has worked out for said member.

[Grynn]

With respect to all effort and civil discussion, I must say...

The best advice my father ever gave me is that, most of the time, it doesn't help at all to be right.

[Sprocket77]

With respect to all effort and civil discussion, I must say...

The best advice my father ever gave me is that, most of the time, it doesn't help at all to be right.

​I think he was probably talking about when he's around your mother though.

[jay4e]

In regards to LEGO Shop at Home, store, POS and "Sold Out":

1. pos data is shared between stores and LEGO Shop at Home obviously.  however it is not a full connected real time system, but a centralized database, that is updated periodically as available. most retailers work the same way.  this has nothing to do with the "status" on LEGO Shop at Home however.  LEGO Shop at Home has its own allotted inventory and does not fulfill directly from store inventory.

2.  the current gold standard for EOL is the "Sold Out" tag on LEGO Shop at Home (disclaimer: this is stipulated based on information provided in point number 5).  This does not mean it is gone completely from lego retail inventory or other retailer.  This means it is no longer available for order at LEGO Shop at Home.  anything "OOS" at LEGO Shop at Home can be ordered, this indicates that LEGO Shop at Home is expecting more stock from somewhere.  This obviously can change and orders can be canceled manually, but that is not really that common.

3.  The retired tag on LEGO Shop at Home, this likely means it is no longer in inventory anywhere in the lego system, as well as all return periods have passed.

4. product no longer listed on LEGO Shop at Home, this likely means some one screwed up while tweaking the db, but it could possibly, with very small hope, mean that it is EOL.

5. Chaos, dogs and cats living together, and lego retail.  all of these things are kinda the same.  so any information provided by this site, lego employees, myself, the internet, your grandmothers psychic or anyone who does not have a working 21103, should be taken as purely speculation.

Edited May 19, 2015 by jay4e

[exciter1]

2.  the current gold standard for EOL is the "Sold Out" tag on LEGO Shop at Home.  This does not mean it is gone completely from lego retail inventory or other retailer.  This means it is no longer available for order at LEGO Shop at Home.  anything "OOS" at LEGO Shop at Home can be ordered, this indicates that LEGO Shop at Home is expecting more stock from somewhere.  This obviously can change and orders can be canceled manually, but that is not really that common.  Except for when it flips from "Sold Out" to "Available Now".

​Fixed

Edited May 19, 2015 by exciter1

[jay4e]

​Fixed

updated to better emphasize the whole dogs and cats living together methodology of retail.

[Darth_Raichu]

updated to better emphasize the whole dogs and cats living together methodology of retail.

​You forgot tea leaves divination.  I refuse to believe anything less accurate

[Simon_GM]

Noob here, I was just wondering what people's consensus was on what will be a lego set that's currently selling right now that will have the most growth potential.

[tractorboy]

Noob here, I was just wondering what people's consensus was on what will be a lego set that's currently selling right now that will have the most growth potential.

​You won't get a consensus on that, just many different opinions. Also depending on what market you're talking about.

[bricketycricket]

Exo suit, B wing, Chima fire bikes. All great

[exciter1]

Exo suit, B wing, Chima fire bikes. All great

​What an a-hole, he left off Epic Dragon Battle.

[Locutus001]

Actually I'm not even sure if you are being sarcastic here or if that's really your opinion...

@noob (Simon_GM): Personally I think they are being utterly sarcastic.

It's difficult to say which sets will retire soon... my pick would be the oldest modular, UCS Star Wars and maybe some other SW sets that look great (probably not the B-Wing though... I mean it's a cool set but it didn't perform well... neither did the UCS-Version...)

Also you might want to go all crazy and check out some technic sets or city sets or whatsoever...

In the end it also depends a lot on what your personal strategy is: Long term holding, short term flipping, parting sets out and selling things separately...

 

 

[zskid00]

​What an a-hole, he left off Epic Dragon Battle.

​Yeah, I would even cut him a deal and sell him mine for MSRP.

[paladyr]

Noob here, I was just wondering what people's consensus was on what will be a lego set that's currently selling right now that will have the most growth potential.

I would go all in on mixels.

[inversion]

Noob here, I was just wondering what people's consensus was on what will be a lego set that's currently selling right now that will have the most growth potential.

​If there would be a clear consensus about the set with the most growth potential then there should be a consensus that the set can not have the greatest potential because it would be hoarded the most. The consensus would contradict itself.