Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Frank Brickowski]

There is definitely an over supply issue with Simpson

[dcdfan]

I think there is not only an over-supply issue of Simpsons Houses in Europe but also a (big) popularity issue. As stated several times before: IMO people will have a harder time selling their SH post-EOL than many expect. The series might be in its 158th (or so...) season, but it is long past its prime. IIRC I included the SH in my personal "Worst sets of 2014" list because of that...

And yet they're expanding it... Edited March 1, 2015 by dcdfan

[Ciglione]

In an effort to save this thread from being further destroyed by more UCS Great Wall gibberish and other such things, I'm going to ramble off my thoughts on sets that are potentially up for retirement this year.

 

1) Tower Bridge - Being a late 2010 set, this one has already celebrated its fourth birthday, which is pretty old in Lego years. I could see this one going OOS in the fall and not coming back.

 

2) Pet Shop - 2011 set, the oldest active modular building. I think this one goes in and out of stock a number of times this year, ala the Grand Emporium, before selling out for good in the fall and being replaced by the next modular in January 2016.

 

3) Volkswagen T1 Camper Van - This one will be four years old in the fall but I wouldn't make any wagers on it. On the one hand, it has been out for a while and its successor (Mini Cooper) is already on shelves. On the other hand, it seems to be a hot seller (especially among the horde) and could easily last into next year, or beyond.

 

4) Sydney Opera House - I don't think this has been out for long enough to retire this year. I just don't see why Lego would pull the plug on it so soon -- I would imagine these big landmark sets are higher margin, lower volume items so even if the sales are a bit slow it's probably not unexpected.

 

5) Tower of Orthanc - This one turns two in July, so it's not very old. But it's a licensed set based on a soon-to-be-if-not-already irrelevant intellectual property. I think this one is gone for sure this year, and quite possibly in the next 4 months.

 

6) Palace Cinema - I've only included this in my list because it has been discussed a lot lately. Personally, I don't think a 2015 retirement for the cinema is even worth discussing but in the spirit of "anything can happen", I suppose there is a remote chance.

 

7) Ewok Village - Two years old this September. That's a pretty short lifespan, so I don't think it retires this year. But if I had to make a list of dark horse, surprise retirement candidates, this would be on it. Realistically, I think it goes in 2016 at the earliest or, in the worst case, it succeeds the Death Star as the expensive, long running, Star Wars OT play set.

 

8.) Red Five X-Wing - Released in May 2013, I expect R5 to retire this year but I'm not sure when exactly. It does look like it could be imminent though.

 

9) Death Star - Just kidding, not even gonna touch this one.

 

What about number 10? Sandcrawler?

[Frank Brickowski]

In an effort to save this thread from being further destroyed by more UCS Great Wall gibberish and other such things, I'm going to ramble off my thoughts on sets that are potentially up for retirement this year.

 

1) Tower Bridge - Being a late 2010 set, this one has already celebrated its fourth birthday, which is pretty old in Lego years. I could see this one going OOS in the fall and not coming back.

 

2) Pet Shop - 2011 set, the oldest active modular building. I think this one goes in and out of stock a number of times this year, ala the Grand Emporium, before selling out for good in the fall and being replaced by the next modular in January 2016.

 

3) Volkswagen T1 Camper Van - This one will be four years old in the fall but I wouldn't make any wagers on it. On the one hand, it has been out for a while and its successor (Mini Cooper) is already on shelves. On the other hand, it seems to be a hot seller (especially among the horde) and could easily last into next year, or beyond.

 

4) Sydney Opera House - I don't think this has been out for long enough to retire this year. I just don't see why Lego would pull the plug on it so soon -- I would imagine these big landmark sets are higher margin, lower volume items so even if the sales are a bit slow it's probably not unexpected.

 

5) Tower of Orthanc - This one turns two in July, so it's not very old. But it's a licensed set based on a soon-to-be-if-not-already irrelevant intellectual property. I think this one is gone for sure this year, and quite possibly in the next 4 months.

 

6) Palace Cinema - I've only included this in my list because it has been discussed a lot lately. Personally, I don't think a 2015 retirement for the cinema is even worth discussing but in the spirit of "anything can happen", I suppose there is a remote chance.

 

7) Ewok Village - Two years old this September. That's a pretty short lifespan, so I don't think it retires this year. But if I had to make a list of dark horse, surprise retirement candidates, this would be on it. Realistically, I think it goes in 2016 at the earliest or, in the worst case, it succeeds the Death Star as the expensive, long running, Star Wars OT play set.

 

8.) Red Five X-Wing - Released in May 2013, I expect R5 to retire this year but I'm not sure when exactly. It does look like it could be imminent though.

 

9) Death Star - Just kidding, not even gonna touch this one.

 

1. concluding from what some knowledgeable people on this site annotated, I fear TB might become the next Death Star

2. agree

3. imo the VW will see go to see its final lap once the Creator Ferrari F40 comes out

4. EOL might be imminent despite short lifetime: many people might assess this as overpriced (seeing only the piece count, not the weight), making it a bad seller. Secondly, afair, SOH has already been on sale last Black Friday, and thirdly the many special pieces make it expensive for LEGO to produce

5. agree

6. the only available corner building might not retire before a corner successor comes out

7. with UCS Hoth Echo Base ready to report for duty, Ewok Village might get an exit since two such play sets at the same time might be one too much. Two years ist not really a "short" life span overall - more the regular length.

8. agree

9. no comment

[Frank Brickowski]

And yet they're expanding it...

 

I was referring to Europe in my post. Europe is not the focus market for LEGO. See licenses of Scooby Doo, TMNT, Lone Ranger and more... If Europe was so important, none of those licenses would have ever been acquired, because no one over (t)here gives a pooped snack about those themes. So expanding the Simpsons line which is popular in the US seems logical. At least Europeans should beware investing in the theme imo.

 

[Val-E]

Assuming Lego paid for the license they are going to bleed The Simpsons brand dry. You would also asume the license would be multi year and as with modulars, the range takes off when you can combine elements and recreate Springfield.

 

I totally agree that in the EU this one has limited appeal  - if this set had come out ten years ago things would have been different.

 

What may happen is they make less for Europe to try and give it more prestige - the box is very big and it doesn

Edited March 1, 2015 by valenciaeric

[MartinP]

In an effort to save this thread from being further destroyed by more UCS Great Wall gibberish and other such things, I'm going to ramble off my thoughts on sets that are potentially up for retirement this year.

 

1) Tower Bridge - Being a late 2010 set, this one has already celebrated its fourth birthday, which is pretty old in Lego years. I could see this one going OOS in the fall and not coming back.

 

2) Pet Shop - 2011 set, the oldest active modular building. I think this one goes in and out of stock a number of times this year, ala the Grand Emporium, before selling out for good in the fall and being replaced by the next modular in January 2016.

 

3) Volkswagen T1 Camper Van - This one will be four years old in the fall but I wouldn't make any wagers on it. On the one hand, it has been out for a while and its successor (Mini Cooper) is already on shelves. On the other hand, it seems to be a hot seller (especially among the horde) and could easily last into next year, or beyond.

 

4) Sydney Opera House - I don't think this has been out for long enough to retire this year. I just don't see why Lego would pull the plug on it so soon -- I would imagine these big landmark sets are higher margin, lower volume items so even if the sales are a bit slow it's probably not unexpected.

 

5) Tower of Orthanc - This one turns two in July, so it's not very old. But it's a licensed set based on a soon-to-be-if-not-already irrelevant intellectual property. I think this one is gone for sure this year, and quite possibly in the next 4 months.

 

6) Palace Cinema - I've only included this in my list because it has been discussed a lot lately. Personally, I don't think a 2015 retirement for the cinema is even worth discussing but in the spirit of "anything can happen", I suppose there is a remote chance.

 

7) Ewok Village - Two years old this September. That's a pretty short lifespan, so I don't think it retires this year. But if I had to make a list of dark horse, surprise retirement candidates, this would be on it. Realistically, I think it goes in 2016 at the earliest or, in the worst case, it succeeds the Death Star as the expensive, long running, Star Wars OT play set.

 

8.) Red Five X-Wing - Released in May 2013, I expect R5 to retire this year but I'm not sure when exactly. It does look like it could be imminent though.

 

9) Death Star - Just kidding, not even gonna touch this one.

You got number 9 wrong. It should be:

 

9) Death Star, EOL in 2017!

[TheOrcKing]

After all, who needs to own the Kwik E Mart if they can't own the house?

That's like saying what use is the Rancor Pit without Jabba's Palace or who wants a TIE Fighter without an X-Wing. The models go together but aren't a requirement unless you are that compelled to where you 'must have' them both in your collection. If The Simpsons House were suddenly gone from all main distributers yet people still wanted one due to missing out before or another part of Springfield was released catching their attention then they will have to go onto the likes of eBay to acquire one.

[Val-E]

I agree in part but the sets you give as examples overlapped for quite some time and that is likely what will happen with The Simpsons. If the house were to retire at end of 2015 that would help the Kwik E mart along and also make it more sought after. Retire it now and you are effectively admitting it has bombed and maybe also sentencing the mart to failure too.

 

In my list, I forgot to add the Seacow,  and Lego Movie stuff in general as decent bets for EOL this year. I suspect the Sea Cow and also Fairground Mixer will be those under-the-radar sets that not just I have forgetten about.

Edited March 1, 2015 by valenciaeric

[biking_tiger]

Sandcrawler? Not this year--I don't care how "slow" it sells. High margin, low volume. 

 

Sea Cow didn't make the list? This one, maybe. Either that or it hangs around for the next LEGO Movie. :/

[rcdb1984]

depends if its in the next movie.  Since it was made on a whim, why not build another ship in the movie?

[Grynn]

Sea Cow really has my interest.  Much like Red 5, it could go several ways depending on several factors... but with a much higher potential variance in value.

 

A significant return in the next movie would probably blow things sky high, especially if it retires sooner than later. I'd expect that to be unlikely, though.

 

It could also stick around too long and seriously suffer when the second movie doesn't live up to the first.

 

Meanwhile, near-consistent praise from people who have built it make for a slightly stronger "It's a huge ship, therefore it will do well" argument, though I don't see it falling right into the display line-up of every AFOL with a serious naval persuasion.

 

Until the last week or two I'd say it has been completely under the popular radar for investing, but of course that can change overnight with the horde.

 

Whatever happens, there will be lots of "I told you so" from one side of the fence or another...

[bricketycricket]

Sandcrawler? Come on, it hasn't even been on shelves for a year yet. I think the minimum lifespan on that thing is going be 2.5 years or so.

[Val-E]

I have my doubts too but it is on the list for some reasons that in Europe we suspect mean it will have a short life. It could go in the wildcard list if that pleases people more.

 

Probably the only other items that could reasonably EOL in Europe after less than 2 years are Sea Cow (movie tie-in, low medium term demand), the cargo train (it breaks the CITY helicopter in every set rule, LOL) and Simpsons

Edited March 1, 2015 by valenciaeric

[ninocerruti]

Hi,

About the Sandcrawler, I will have some news next week. In fact, it is sold out in some shops in Belgium.

We will see if my big shop will have it.

Next News Wednesday. ...Same speculation on Red X Wing, but not sold out in my shop.

[davem1111]

I know that newbee word is not taken here, but listen ,i had an atrocious week dealing with damaged product etc and orders waiting etc on Lego shop.

today i finally spoke to someone very high up in Lego.and take it or leave it palace cinema is going EOL in July ,forget seal numbers ,just see am i right , and just to say he was not forthcoming with the info,he let it slip , and slip bad, i passed it over but went back to it.its going that's it.maybe this newbee is good for something ,

[Ciglione]

I know that newbee word is not taken here, but listen ,i had an atrocious week dealing with damaged product etc and orders waiting etc on Lego shop.

today i finally spoke to someone very high up in Lego.and take it or leave it palace cinema is going EOL in July ,forget seal numbers ,just see am i right , and just to say he was not forthcoming with the info,he let it slip , and slip bad, i passed it over but went back to it.its going that's it.maybe this newbee is good for something ,

 

I dunno why and I have no source. But I think this is not bullocks.

[davem1111]

Ok firm conformation,its EOL in July ok , I put up what I was told by accident ,by a senior exec ok,take it or leave it.but it will be gone in July.

[diablo2112]

Ok firm conformation,its EOL in July ok , I put up what I was told by accident ,by a senior exec ok,take it or leave it.but it will be gone in July.

 

Mods will move this to the open speculation thread.   This thread is for confirmed retirements, as evidence by a "retired" label on a Lego Shop at Home site.  

[davem1111]

And another thing , in my business,I become privy to certain knowledge,that resellers would not be interested in ,because its not about Lego, but if this was another forum about my business , you would sit up and listen, as i said ,i had a nightmare over 3 different orders , I kicked up stink, I refused to speak to a minion ,I insisted on a call within the hour , I got it, he let it slip during a 20min conversation,as to how Lego would like to keep me as a valued customer,i never asked "which set is retiring" I was more interested in my problem, but part of my problem was 2 PC , and he said it ,exact words ,"well that one wont be around after July" when I finished getting my problem sorted , I said time is running out ,I am trying to get all modulars ,then like GE goes and it costs more, he said well your lucky you'll have 2 of these. Gave me his personal number, as he likes my business,totally unrelated to Lego.and we chatted about the pit falls of racehorses and ownership of horses and breeding premiums in different country's, so there you are doubters ,that's what was said ,he had no reason to lie , i am not a reseller, I know his grade in his job, so he wouldn't be lying and again he would look foolish asking me for my help in the business i know about ,if he lied to me .have a nice day ,now as we say in Ireland ,stack your cart,

[stephen_rockefeller]

Moving it to the what I heard from a Lego employee thread seems like the better idea.

[exciter1]

And another thing , in my business,I become privy to certain knowledge,that resellers would not be interested in ,because its not about Lego, but if this was another forum about my business , you would sit up and listen, as i said ,i had a nightmare over 3 different orders , I kicked up stink, I refused to speak to a minion ,I insisted on a call within the hour , I got it, he let it slip during a 20min conversation,as to how Lego would like to keep me as a valued customer,i never asked "which set is retiring" I was more interested in my problem, but part of my problem was 2 PC , and he said it ,exact words ,"well that one wont be around after July" when I finished getting my problem sorted , I said time is running out ,I am trying to get all modulars ,then like GE goes and it costs more, he said well your lucky you'll have 2 of these. Gave me his personal number, as he likes my business,totally unrelated to Lego.and we chatted about the pit falls of racehorses and ownership of horses and breeding premiums in different country's, so there you are doubters ,that's what was said ,he had no reason to lie , i am not a reseller, I know his grade in his job, so he wouldn't be lying and again he would look foolish asking me for my help in the business i know about ,if he lied to me .have a nice day ,now as we say in Ireland ,stack your cart,

 

I'm glad you're not the only one who has to worry about breeding premiums.

[bricketycricket]

And another thing , in my business,I become privy to certain knowledge,that resellers would not be interested in ,because its not about Lego, but if this was another forum about my business , you would sit up and listen, as i said ,i had a nightmare over 3 different orders , I kicked up stink, I refused to speak to a minion ,I insisted on a call within the hour , I got it, he let it slip during a 20min conversation,as to how Lego would like to keep me as a valued customer,i never asked "which set is retiring" I was more interested in my problem, but part of my problem was 2 PC , and he said it ,exact words ,"well that one wont be around after July" when I finished getting my problem sorted , I said time is running out ,I am trying to get all modulars ,then like GE goes and it costs more, he said well your lucky you'll have 2 of these. Gave me his personal number, as he likes my business,totally unrelated to Lego.and we chatted about the pit falls of racehorses and ownership of horses and breeding premiums in different country's, so there you are doubters ,that's what was said ,he had no reason to lie , i am not a reseller, I know his grade in his job, so he wouldn't be lying and again he would look foolish asking me for my help in the business i know about ,if he lied to me .have a nice day ,now as we say in Ireland ,stack your cart,

Don't you think that anyone who has to answer to irate customers over the phone is, by definition, not a high-level employee of the company?

[No More Monkeys]

And another thing , in my business,I become privy to certain knowledge,that resellers would not be interested in ,because its not about Lego, but if this was another forum about my business , you would sit up and listen, as i said ,i had a nightmare over 3 different orders , I kicked up stink, I refused to speak to a minion ,I insisted on a call within the hour , I got it, he let it slip during a 20min conversation,as to how Lego would like to keep me as a valued customer,i never asked "which set is retiring" I was more interested in my problem, but part of my problem was 2 PC , and he said it ,exact words ,"well that one wont be around after July" when I finished getting my problem sorted , I said time is running out ,I am trying to get all modulars ,then like GE goes and it costs more, he said well your lucky you'll have 2 of these. Gave me his personal number, as he likes my business,totally unrelated to Lego.and we chatted about the pit falls of racehorses and ownership of horses and breeding premiums in different country's, so there you are doubters ,that's what was said ,he had no reason to lie , i am not a reseller, I know his grade in his job, so he wouldn't be lying and again he would look foolish asking me for my help in the business i know about ,if he lied to me .have a nice day ,now as we say in Ireland ,stack your cart,

we know (well, we established via speculation) that there is some sort of internal EOL database at TLC. Well, correct name probably production schedules. TLC employees might cite information from there, but it does not mean that production dates cannot be changed at a later date based on a number of factors. It is not a question of lying or intentional confusion

[Ciglione]

And another thing , in my business,I become privy to certain knowledge,that resellers would not be interested in ,because its not about Lego, but if this was another forum about my business , you would sit up and listen, as i said ,i had a nightmare over 3 different orders , I kicked up stink, I refused to speak to a minion ,I insisted on a call within the hour , I got it, he let it slip during a 20min conversation,as to how Lego would like to keep me as a valued customer,i never asked "which set is retiring" I was more interested in my problem, but part of my problem was 2 PC , and he said it ,exact words ,"well that one wont be around after July" when I finished getting my problem sorted , I said time is running out ,I am trying to get all modulars ,then like GE goes and it costs more, he said well your lucky you'll have 2 of these. Gave me his personal number, as he likes my business,totally unrelated to Lego.and we chatted about the pit falls of racehorses and ownership of horses and breeding premiums in different country's, so there you are doubters ,that's what was said ,he had no reason to lie , i am not a reseller, I know his grade in his job, so he wouldn't be lying and again he would look foolish asking me for my help in the business i know about ,if he lied to me .have a nice day ,now as we say in Ireland ,stack your cart,

 

Why are you trying desperately to convince people here? You shared the information. Some might believe you, some do not. If you are convinced, act and buy those PC's.

 

Furthermore. Never reveal your source.