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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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In hind sight I should have, but I'm in Australia :P Would have cost you guys extra for shipping, also the box wasn't mint, it had receipt tapes stuck to it so I decided to return it. I have one built though... it was lots of fun tballw32! Get your hands on one soon!!

No worries buddy ol pal. But you should free up some more capital. You wanna get rid of one if those town hall thingies..... I'll even let you make money on this one and throw you some extra shackles.
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I think there is too much analysis going on here.  It's really not that complicated.  LEGO has a production plan for every set.  Most follow that plan within a couple of months of the original dates.  If it is a more popular set like the HH, it will sell out before the original date was reached.  If it is an unpopular set, it could last well past the original retirement date.  The unpopular and poor selling sets will see "Retiring Soon" notices or possible discounts.  

 

That being said, sometimes there are outliers in the system...Sets that either sell very, very well and production runs are extended or on the negative side, sets that sell poorly and are removed early.  There are also sets that have production issues in which some components of the set...bricks...instructions...boxes...make it too costly to continue production.  

 

Could LEGO be messing with EOL dates?  Absolutely.  But most sets will continue their normal production lives for the reasons I mentioned above.  

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I think there is too much analysis going on here.  It's really not that complicated.  LEGO has a production plan for every set.  Most follow that plan within a couple of months of the original dates.  If it is a more popular set like the HH, it will sell out before the original date was reached.  If it is an unpopular set, it could last well past the original retirement date.  The unpopular and poor selling sets will see "Retiring Soon" notices or possible discounts.  

 

That being said, sometimes there are outliers in the system...Sets that either sell very, very well and production runs are extended or on the negative side, sets that sell poorly and are removed early.  There are also sets that have production issues in which some components of the set...bricks...instructions...boxes...make it too costly to continue production.  

 

Could LEGO be messing with EOL dates?  Absolutely.  But most sets will continue their normal production lives for the reasons I mentioned above.  

 

Thanks for your assessment, Ed. But what about the advertised "CHAOS" now? All of that sounds pretty much as before, or am I missing something?

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I am just speculating here, but I think the "chaos" is due to the mass retirement (though not official yet in the U.S.) we are in the midst of since last fall.  With LEGO producing more sets each year it was bound to catch up and we are likely to see more of this mass retirement as LEGO keeps cranking out the new sets so quickly.  Production capacity limits how many sets they can keep in the supply chain.

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Both target and walmart by me are clearancing bennys spaceship and the police dropship. There where some rumours that the lego movies sets are retiring/retired end of last year. could this be conformation or are big box stores just free up shelf space from the two largest sets? I picked up the spaceship but I'm not overly impressed with the drop ship.

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I think that the "chaos" which is coming (according to Ed Mack) is about amazon and other online retailers which will not be allowed anymore to make their usual discounts on lego sets. And if amazon do not agree, they will no receive anymore lego sets.

But you'll still be able to buy some sets online on toys'r us for example, but at RRP.

 

I think that the time when we were able to get some sets with 30% off on amazon is behind us.

 

I have no proof, I just see what's going on in my country on amazon: no more discounts on the new sets (for the 2015 sets), no more modulars available on amazon (since a while), fewer and fewer different sets on amazon (more can be found on the LEGO Shop at Home).

 

RRP everywhere, in online and B&M shops ? Man, THAT would be a real "chaos".

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I hear you 100% Monsieur. The days of discounts on exclusives are going if not gone. An efficient way to strangle quick flipping but that may be better for longer term investors as the get go Price will be higher.

 

It

Edited by valenciaeric
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I am just speculating here, but I think the "chaos" is due to the mass retirement (though not official yet in the U.S.) we are in the midst of since last fall.  With LEGO producing more sets each year it was bound to catch up and we are likely to see more of this mass retirement as LEGO keeps cranking out the new sets so quickly.  Production capacity limits how many sets they can keep in the supply chain.

I am just speculating here.   :pleasantry: Just fantastic. Sums up this site in five simple words.

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I think that the "chaos" which is coming (according to Ed Mack) is about amazon and other online retailers which will not be allowed anymore to make their usual discounts on lego sets. And if amazon do not agree, they will no receive anymore lego sets.

But you'll still be able to buy some sets online on toys'r us for example, but at RRP.

 

I think that the time when we were able to get some sets with 30% off on amazon is behind us.

 

I have no proof, I just see what's going on in my country on amazon: no more discounts on the new sets (for the 2015 sets), no more modulars available on amazon (since a while), fewer and fewer different sets on amazon (more can be found on the LEGO Shop at Home).

 

RRP everywhere, in online and B&M shops ? Man, THAT would be a real "chaos".

 

Yes... as I heared there will be only discounts possible from physical shops with a designated lego aisle. With designated lego aisle it is meant that a customer can have the ultimate lego experience when visiting the shop.  

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He is speculating in an appropriate thread, that actually uses word "speculation" in the title...

 

I think you might be confused. Thread titles are what the thread isn't about. For example, all modular EOL speculation can be found in the Palace Cinema thread and all local Target clearance finds and Walmart Creative Tower order statuses are in the Daily Deals thread.

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I said most sets.  There are still some surprises coming.

After what happened with limits on the Simpsons house last week I wouldn't be surprised if that was one of the surprises. 

 

The Simpsons line consists of minifigures and one exclusive per year so far with only series 2 minifigures and Kwik-E-Mart coming this year per rumors.  Series 1 minifigures are sold out and essentially retired, so it's plausible the house gets a 12-18 month run.

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After what happened with limits on the Simpsons house last week I wouldn't be surprised if that was one of the surprises. 

 

The Simpsons line consists of minifigures and one exclusive per year so far with only series 2 minifigures and Kwik-E-Mart coming this year per rumors.  Series 1 minifigures are sold out and essentially retired, so it's plausible the house gets a 12-18 month run.

 

I would imagine they wouldn't make any money selling sets that big for only 12 months.

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