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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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All sets, which were discounted 15% yesterday, can be retired soon, except Sydney opera - it has a very short production life, and similar set - TB - is in market extremly long. Why to end Sydney so soon? It would be EXTREMLY surprising. Even EEE is acceptable as retiring soon, since this Maersk sets have sometimes short EOL (for example maersk train). I think that Sydney opera was discounted because of its bad selling numbers - this set is extremly overpriced (similar set - TB - has better price and much more pieces !!!). I expect that Sydney opera will have reduced price in future year, which will match its number of pieces - 0,09 eur for 1 piece is unacceptable for nonlicenced set without minifigures, real price is under 200 eur.

 

I agree. I think the 3E will pop any moment now.

 

As with the Sydney Opera House, I struggle liking this one.... It looks like a poor seller indeed due to being overpriced or just doesn't have the x factor. Whatever it is, I won't be surprised if Lego decides to pull the plug in the next 1 year. Hoever, its too early for EOL of this set, so keep it cool people :)

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SW 75002 AT-RT ...can't even find a webpage anymore on walmart for this set. 

haven't seen one in a store since the summer....

 

All signs pointing to EOL.

 

That would be awesome.  I bought a few of these when I first started brickvesting in March 2014 (I've learned alot since then).  But anyway, at $15 for a cool walker, a Yoda, a 501st trooper, a droid and a droideka, it seemed like such a bargain.  Once they are gone, I think they should do well. I still see a lot of them in stores... even if they are going EOL, it may take the better part of a year for them to really dry up, unless they get put on $10 clearance or something.

 

By the way - I think playability on this set kinda sucks.  I can hardly pick the walker up without breaking it; legs are constantly popping off.  Makes for a nice diorama, but don't touch it ;)

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As with the Sydney Opera House, I struggle liking this one.... It looks like a poor seller indeed due to being overpriced or just doesn't have the x factor. Whatever it is, I won't be surprised if Lego decides to pull the plug in the next 1 year. Hoever, its too early for EOL of this set, so keep it cool people :)

TH would appear to be done. That set was large, potentially a poor seller and not currently 'next in line to retire' coupled with Ed mentioning that TLG are now mixing things up regarding retirements I think it's more than feasible that fat lady is about to sing for the Sydney Opera House.
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Sydney Opera House is not as overpriced as you guys think. Its not all about the amount of bricks, its about the weight. TB has over 500 of the same tiny cheese slope. SOH has lots of big pieces, and the box is bigger than TB. Lego is going for smaller boxes, why make this unnessasary huge?

As for eol, would be really wicked. Would mean it was really slow seller. But why do it like that out of the blue? Lego would totally miss on investor action and a lot of regular people who thought this would be out longer would be pissed.

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If they have decided to eol it much faster than TB (say around 2 years) I would even argue that in SOH case they would make the best money (and this would be by far) and sell the most by candidly announcing "look, we are going to eol this by the end of 2015".

I bet they wont start doing that but in some cases (like this one maybe) it might even make sense.

Edited by MrMorden
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Sydney Opera House is not as overpriced as you guys think. Its not all about the amount of bricks, its about the weight. TB has over 500 of the same tiny cheese slope. SOH has lots of big pieces, and the box is bigger than TB. Lego is going for smaller boxes, why make this unnessasary huge?

As for eol, would be really wicked. Would mean it was really slow seller. But why do it like that out of the blue? Lego would totally miss on investor action and a lot of regular people who thought this would be out longer would be pissed.

Correct. The SOH is not overpriced. The weight of ABS plastic is right in line with sets of similar size. PPP is not an accurate measure of value.

As for retiring this set, anything is possible if LEGO decides to mix things up or starts to retire poor selling sets first. I'm not saying that it is retiring, but to me, the discounts on this set indicates weakness in sales. You cannot blame LEGO for retiring poorly selling sets. How can someone complain if they have a year or more to buy a set? If you love a set so much, buy it sooner than later.

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Since the (expected) EOL of the TH, I would really not be surprised that TLG will stop producing SOH. It can take a long while before they will clear out stock, but with the 15% discount they can sell a few. I ordered at least one last weekend and I'm planning to buy more this weekend, of course I will check the seal codes.

 

I really wouldn't be surprised if SOH retires within a 2 year lifespan and becoming one of the rarest large sets out there.. it's at least not hoarded.

is the set really that bad? In my opinion it isn't. Ed is right about the 'weight'; this set contains a lot of large pieces. Furthermore I think they did a good job designing the building and don't forget it is a extremely difficult roof and design this building in fact has. I like the set very much, but perhaps this is because I did the road trip of my life in that beautiful country of Australia..

 

I really like it that almost nobody is buying this even @ a good discount. 225 euro is great in my eyes, that's almost TB retail here in Holland. Do you like Taj Mahal? or the Statue of Liberty? I don't.. but when I see now how good these sets are performing I really don't want to miss out a great landmark set. For me it's a no-brainer, it is still part of the great landmark sets. I really think this will be a big surprise for a lot of people that it will go EOL sooner than you think. Demand in the aftermarket? Everybody loves rare and exclusive sets.. the rarer, the more desirable it will become.

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Since the (expected) EOL of the TH, I would really not be surprised that TLG will stop producing SOH. It can take a long while before they will clear out stock, but with the 15% discount they can sell a few. I ordered at least one last weekend and I'm planning to buy more this weekend, of course I will check the seal codes.

 

I really wouldn't be surprised if SOH retires within a 2 year lifespan and becoming one of the rarest large sets out there.. it's at least not hoarded.

is the set really that bad? In my opinion it isn't. Ed is right about the 'weight'; this set contains a lot of large pieces. Furthermore I think they did a good job designing the building and don't forget it is a extremely difficult roof and design this building in fact has. I like the set very much, but perhaps this is because I did the road trip of my life in that beautiful country of Australia..

 

I really like it that almost nobody is buying this even @ a good discount. 225 euro is great in my eyes, that's almost TB retail here in Holland. Do you like Taj Mahal? or the Statue of Liberty? I don't.. but when I see now how good these sets are performing I really don't want to miss out a great landmark set. For me it's a no-brainer, it is still part of the great landmark sets. I really think this will be a big surprise for a lot of people that it will go EOL sooner than you think. Demand in the aftermarket? Everybody loves rare and exclusive sets.. the rarer, the more desirable it will become.

I was making this point earlier. The potential of this set alone makes it worth picking up, just in case. After getting punched in the face with TH and having to pay over MSRP to acquire, I don't want to make the same mistake with SOH.

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Correct. The SOH is not overpriced. The weight of ABS plastic is right in line with sets of similar size. PPP is not an accurate measure of value.

As for retiring this set, anything is possible if LEGO decides to mix things up or starts to retire poor selling sets first. I'm not saying that it is retiring, but to me, the discounts on this set indicates weakness in sales. You cannot blame LEGO for retiring poorly selling sets. How can someone complain if they have a year or more to buy a set? If you love a set so much, buy it sooner than later.

 

On the other side, also the weight of plastic cannot be decisive - the plastic itself is cheap and we can see tons of plastic toys for peanuts. It is a factor, but also the number of pieces is imporant, since every piece must go through sofisticated and expensive production process. For me is the price rate 0,09 eur per piece simply unacceptable for a non-licenced set. There are not so many big pieces, which should cost over 0,09 eur. Such rate can be acceptable in Sopwith camel - which is a big set with big pieces. Plus - the bigger is the set, the cheaper should be this price rate - such price rate per piece is acceptable only in small sets; for big sets there must be some kind of a bulk discount.

To sum up - it cannot be a surprice that this set is poorly selling. There is bad price rate per piece, the set is not designed very well, the price is high for not licenced set, etc. It would be much better and logic to decrease the price of SOH to the amount close to EUR 200, instead of making such extremly early EOL.

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Target pulled the listing for TH, HH and R2D2.

I believe Target does not have TRU's tendency to put listings in and out - or there are counter-examples?

Yes, I noticed that too.

 

The listing for GE came and went over the last few months and it was still there earlier today.  At least on the hard to find items page.

 

Although, if you mean the complete page pulled from the website, then no I don't think that happened to GE yet.

Edited by meowsmeowsmeows
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All stated below in one lowly BP'er's opinion, but...

 

The SOP shares this with TH:

 

It is big. It is expensive. It has been a slow seller. And, for retail shelf space and retail storage space prerequisites, this thing is a monster.

 

Also, think about the appeal of the set; it doesn't take much to appreciate the aesthetic beauty of the Tower Bridge, Taj Mahal, etc. Imagine Lego putting out a Seven Wonders of the World set, Roman Colliseum, etc.- with true universal appeal. Big pieces and prices would not stall many from purchasing, were they serious admirers of those relics (of which there are many). The SOP isn't at that level. I would rather have a 4,000+ piece 7-Eleven, Slurpee machine and all, than this set.

 

Last week while at the Pick-a-Brick counter of my local Lego store, I blind-folded myself and grabbed seventeen handfuls of beige and white brick pieces. Using just these blocks, I was able to replicate the Lego SOP with a statistically-significant 93.567% accuracy equivalent (P value of <.05).

 

Should TLG have wished to honor the fine country of Australia, they should have (I have said it before and will say it again), done a UCS Kylie Minogue.

 

But who cares about the aesthetic/artistic appeal of one Lego collector? Would this piece adorn my Lego display section? No.

 

Will it be included in my investment portfolio?

 

 

 

Yes.

 

 

 

Like the TH, the more elusive the set disappearing, the more lowly the QTY stocked by fellow investors, the more iconic the set (regardless of its artistic monotony from one collector's perspective), the greater the likelihood of post-EOL appreciation. This set will always have an interested audience to some degree.

 

When Harry Potter hype fades, and when no one really cares about Lord Business's lair in many, many years, there will always be some Aussie or tourist who saw Crocodile Dundee Live at the SOP and must have this set. It is an extremely significant historic building.

 

There will be a long-lasting demand for it. And thus, it will be allotted its appropriate space in my Lego investing portfolio.

Edited by Cross
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This is an unspeakable tragedy.

 

I retract any commentary ever made regarding a UCS KM.

 

Austrailia: you are due for something; anything new/exciting. A Dingo hasn't eaten anything newsworthy in a long, long time.

Edited by Cross
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