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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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The newest Cargo train is seriously tempting from AmazonUK however the last one took 4 yrs to retire...this is only the beginning of the product cycle.:-(

Or will it follow the3677 Red Cargo train production cycle???  If it follows the shorter production cycle it is worth buying now.

 

No. I follow the trains closely. The 3677 Red Cargo Train was a limited edition, and it was obvious to many train buffs that it was going to have an out-of-cycle retirement.  The Amazon UK price is a good opportunity to pick up a Cargo Train for your personal build. Generally I would advise people who aren't keenly in touch with the Lego train market to stay away from the theme other than the big creator sets.

 

Of course, with a deep enough discount, almost any set becomes an investment opportunity.

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I too value the variety of perspectives here. I find very few to be completely foolish (and therefore unworthy of response) even though I disagree with so much that is said. On the other hand, many points of view seem to confirm and/or slightly modify my own beliefs. I try to pay attention and process it all. Both condemning and blindly subscribing to others' (even remotely reasonable) ideas are equally ignorant actions.

This forum (and especially a few select members and founders of it) are an incredible resource that provide us all with the opportunity to increase our "advantage portfolio" in this game. (Thank you all!)

 

I'd just like to briefly comment on the "RETIRING SOON" tag, because I think many people currently misunderstand it (which is somewhat understandable):

 

If you have the perspective that Lego investing should be fairly straightforward and easy (i.e. buy just before EOL, whether to short term flip or long term hold), you will clearly develop ill will toward the RETIRING SOON tag and possibly extend that attitude to TLG in general.

 

Well, in case it isn't obvious, that tag is NOT A TOOL FOR RESELLERS.

 

Why would they tag every set (especially our main focus, large exclusives) in a predictable, orderly fashion at a pre-determined point before actual EOL? Seriously, think about it. Why? There is nothing in it for TLG. When a set is selling well and it's time is about up, things are more or less going as planned. Why take action which would only play into the hands of resellers at the expense of the target consumer? While I am no Lego exec, it appears clear to me that is not part of the overall game plan. Perhaps the tag started out with such an intent, but clearly it has no such purpose now.

 

Instead, the RETIRING SOON tag seems to be used on sets which are coming up on EOL and not selling as well as they had hoped... obviously to boost sales and help clear out stock (whether to the target consumer or otherwise). I'm no history buff, but I would be very interested to see the entire list of sets that have received the tag, along with their relative value from the time the tag was applied until now. I think it would be quite revealing.

 

Anyway, once you lose the expectation that a RETIRING SOON tag can give you an investing advantage, clearly you can see that it is being used as a sales tool by TLG, can you not?  Is it so surprising that their actions would be designed to benefit them, not us?

 

So regardless of our opinion on what TLG thinks of reselling, perhaps we may find it easier to stop worrying about the RETIRING SOON tag and it's value (or lack thereof, at least for investing)...

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Fire brigade's for 119.00 on Amazon for an entire year was better then tb deal.

Something I see posted here and talked about quite often is '' I got this set to diversify my portfolio ''

I think that's kind of silly. Would you rather have 1 of all these random sets or have nothing but hh or ssd. I personally am really narrowing my picks down in regards to the long haul.

Mark Cuban said diversifying a portfolio is stupid. And he rules. :)

 

Well...I'd caveat that to say, "as long as you are smartly investing."  Because, no one wants to end up with no diversification, and a closet full of Prince of Persia sets.

 

Looking back, I'd rather spend $150 on Mixels series 1 at TRU's MSRP (ie. $6 each). Easy 100% profit :P

 

$6?  More like $5.  :)

 

And more than 100% profit.  :)

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I'm small time so not intended as a boast:

Only sets I bought 2-3 yrs ago that haven't gone up are some alien conquest sets & a few x wings, all of which are still for sale on Amazon.

Even the ninjago sets went up.

My point: Unsafe to draw concrete conclusions from just a few yrs, but even a diversified portfolio of weak sets bought on sale has shown the ability to outpace msrp.

So there's that...

Edited by beatpoppa
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Take it for what it's worth but Kmart no longer has Hobbit: An unexpected journey. I think this one is slipping into the sunset. A little more online stock and it's done. Glad I got that one for $45 last Kmart round.

It actually at one point already once disappeared from Kmart - they had it at $22, before it went away. Reappeared just a couple of weeks ago I think. So, perhaps they found a pallet in some kmart store that was closed...

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Looking back, I'd rather spend $150 on Mixels series 1 at TRU's MSRP (ie. $6 each). Easy 100% profit :P

I didn't expect the series to go that well for investment. I looked at the polybags and was like... 'come on, you can probably pull pieces around and build these.' Guess I was wrong. lol

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It actually at one point already once disappeared from Kmart - they had it at $22, before it went away. Reappeared just a couple of weeks ago I think. So, perhaps they found a pallet in some kmart store that was closed...

$22! That's insane!

I did see them at $63 two weeks or so ago. That's probably what you mentioned another pallet. Just checked this morning as well, and it's gone from their site. Sad~ thought I could use my points again.

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There is a cold set that is going to bring some people "cold" hard cash soon.

 

First there is water then there is ice.

Sent from my SM-S765C using Brickpicker mobile app

 

If you mean the Arctic Icebreaker then it should be the opposite order: ice -> water. So you do NOT mean the ice breaker?

Edited by rfish
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$22! That's insane!

I did see them at $63 two weeks or so ago. That's probably what you mentioned another pallet. Just checked this morning as well, and it's gone from their site. Sad~ thought I could use my points again.

It was not widely available at that price of course - I was just meaning that it went through usual kmart downward pricing spiral of death once.

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 Artic series (60062 might become scarce for this season but it is a TRU exclusive so  it will be around for a while) or it could be:

 

10235 Winter Village Market (if it follows the series should retire this holiday season)

10245 Santas Workshop (as expected this will become more difficult to find after Thanksgiving)

           Good Flip?

76000 Batman vs Mr. Freeze (3 exclusive figs)

           Much needed set to get Mr. Freeze for AA.

 

Those are my picks

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I do not believe it will be 10235 WVM. Cause I am not sure if this will bring so much money. 

 

10245 Santa's Workshop could well be possible in my thought.

 

76000 Batman vs Mr. Freeze is the best possible of the three.

 

 

"Cold set" could also refer to a just released set that will retire soon and suddenly. My own guess would be AA.

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