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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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"Open Speculation"? Alright, my turn on some of the popular bigger sets, based on the info I was able to gather "here and there":

Going EOL this year - for sure:

- SSD

- Grand Emporium

- Volkswagen T1 Camper

- Technic 4x4 Crawler

- Technic Grand Prix Racer

- Technic Service Truck

- Cargo Train

- Passenger Train

Going EOL this year - probably:

- Tower Bridge

Going EOL this year - maybe:

- Pet Shop

- Haunted House

- Death Star (this time for real and not only because it has been on this list for the last 6 years)

NOT going EOL this year - for sure:

- Town Hall

- R2-D2

- Horizon Express

Your thoughts? Corrections? Other comments?

Excelent line-up. Tnx

Verzonden vanaf mijn iPhone met behulp van Brickpicker

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just received a summer catalog today in the mail in my son's name (along with a spring one in my name  -confused ).

 

anyway, i don't see 10221 being retired before this Nov/Dec since it's nicely advertised in it.  why spend valuable catalog page space on a set that can't be purchased?   i think 10221 is just produced in lesser quantity  (due to the high price) so it sells out faster when people think it's being retired.

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anyway, i don't see 10221 being retired before this Nov/Dec since it's nicely advertised in it.  why spend valuable catalog page space on a set that can't be purchased?   i think 10221 is just produced in lesser quantity  (due to the high price) so it sells out faster when people think it's being retired.

 

Ahhhh. Now I know what 1000s of speculators simultaneously cutting their wrists sounds like.

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just received a summer catalog today in the mail in my son's name (along with a spring one in my name  -confused ).

 

anyway, i don't see 10221 being retired before this Nov/Dec since it's nicely advertised in it.  why spend valuable catalog page space on a set that can't be purchased?   i think 10221 is just produced in lesser quantity  (due to the high price) so it sells out faster when people think it's being retired.

 

I am not sure I agree 100%. I remember seeing a good size ad of the 41999 Crawler in a catalog last year, and it was pretty much gone when the catalog came out. 

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"Open Speculation"? Alright, my turn on some of the popular bigger sets, based on the info I was able to gather "here and there":

 

Going EOL this year - for sure:

- SSD

- Grand Emporium

- Volkswagen T1 Camper

- Technic 4x4 Crawler

- Technic Grand Prix Racer

- Technic Service Truck

- Cargo Train

- Passenger Train

 

Going EOL this year - probably:

- Tower Bridge

 

Going EOL this year - maybe:

- Pet Shop

- Haunted House

- Death Star (this time for real and not only because it has been on this list for the last 6 years)

 

NOT going EOL this year - for sure:

- Town Hall

- R2-D2

- Horizon Express

 

Your thoughts? Corrections? Other comments?

Ooh my turn :)

I agree with the For Sure list, apart from SSD. Haven't the trains already gone?

Pet Shop no, maybe end of next year. TH may be around til 2017. HH who knows.... :)

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Guest TabbyBoy

We must have a very different Summer 2014 catalogue in the UK as there's no 10221 in it at all. Does this mean it kicks the bucket in the UK first? There's also no GE/PS/SC/VWC either. What we do have is too much Chima bloody Chima! ;-(

Oh... we finally get Architecture Studio for

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We must have a very different Summer 2014 catalogue in the UK as there's no 10221 in it at all. Does this mean it kicks the bucket in the UK first? There's also no GE/PS/SC/VWC either. What we do have is too much Chima bloody Chima! ;-(

Oh... we finally get Architecture Studio for

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personal opinion, i would move TB and DS up one level each.  generally, i would agree with your speculation. 

 

As far as for the TB this actually what I got to know, too. I just didn't want to put more hype into it than necessary, so I "downgraded" the TB to "probably".

 

What does "here and there" mean? You can say Lego employees and I promise we won't laugh at you ;) I'm curious about the techic grand prix racer.

 

"Here and there" means taking info from all kinds of sources, adding logic and educated guessing to it and filter the biggest chunks out of the EOL white noise.

 

Concerning the Grand Prix Racer: Personally, I am 99 % sure it will go this year. (Actually one only has to do the Technic math to get the estimated EOL date.)

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i think 10226 sopwith camel is a goner before the 10220 VW T1 Van.  not sure why.

just my gut telling me to "buy more" camels!

 

attachicon.gifWallpaper-Buy-More-chuck-5365020-1024-768 - Copy.jpg

 

To be honest, I never really understood why people love the Sopwith Camel as an investment (winner). Personally I do like the model and its functionalities. And if you are able to buy cheap you will get some profit post-EOL. But I just dont see people going crazy about this set anytime post-EOL. Firstly it is a historic plane from WW1 - not a very popular era, not a very "popular" war (even less talked about in the US than in Europe), no really popular machinery aside from Fokker Dr.1. And from my point of view the 100th anniversary will hardly do anything to drive up interest in the whole WW1 topic. Secondly, there is no theme the Camel could be added to. Thirdly, just take a look at the Camel polybag vs. the T1 polybag...

 

I think even in 3 years after EOL you can be happy if the Camel sees a gain of +50% on the retail price. I doubt it will ever reach double retail price at any point. So the question I ask is: Why buy ANY Camels as long as there is a T1 right next to it (on the shelves)? My guess is: If the Camel was about to retire this year, it could be included in the June or December sales since I think I wont clear out by itself fast enough if LEGO stopped production now. Of course I dont have sales data from LEGO for the Camel, I just cannot imagine personally it sells that well.

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To be honest, I never really understood why people love the Sopwith Camel as an investment (winner). Personally I do like the model and its functionalities. And if you are able to buy cheap you will get some profit post-EOL. But I just dont see people going crazy about this set anytime post-EOL. Firstly it is a historic plane from WW1 - not a very popular era, not a very "popular" war (even less talked about in the US than in Europe), no really popular machinery aside from Fokker Dr.1. And from my point of view the 100th anniversary will hardly do anything to drive up interest in the whole WW1 topic. Secondly, there is no theme the Camel could be added to. Thirdly, just take a look at the Camel polybag vs. the T1 polybag...

 

I think even in 3 years after EOL you can be happy if the Camel sees a gain of +50% on the retail price. I doubt it will ever reach double retail price at any point. So the question I ask is: Why buy ANY Camels as long as there is a T1 right next to it (on the shelves)? My guess is: If the Camel was about to retire this year, it could be included in the June or December sales since I think I wont clear out by itself fast enough if LEGO stopped production now. Of course I dont have sales data from LEGO for the Camel, I just cannot imagine personally it sells that well.

 

I think what you are saying is probably realistic.

But I consider it this way.

Buy what you like is my rule.  I don't like the camper for me to personally own.  I may buy some anyways.

But, the Sopwith, what theme does it go with?  Snoopy.

I also think many people do not buy it and they will let it go out on its own without big clearance.

That is was never a huge seller or production build, so they don't have to clearance it.

Then for people that want the Sopwith, it will be a rarer available one and thus a good margin level if you have them.

Snoopy is my hero.  That says it all.

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just received a summer catalog today in the mail in my son's name (along with a spring one in my name  -confused ).

 

anyway, i don't see 10221 being retired before this Nov/Dec since it's nicely advertised in it.  why spend valuable catalog page space on a set that can't be purchased?   i think 10221 is just produced in lesser quantity  (due to the high price) so it sells out faster when people think it's being retired.

 

They probably put the catalogs together far in advance, so perhaps they expected their SSD stock to last a little longer?

 

 

To be honest, I never really understood why people love the Sopwith Camel as an investment (winner). Personally I do like the model and its functionalities. And if you are able to buy cheap you will get some profit post-EOL. But I just dont see people going crazy about this set anytime post-EOL. Firstly it is a historic plane from WW1 - not a very popular era, not a very "popular" war (even less talked about in the US than in Europe), no really popular machinery aside from Fokker Dr.1. And from my point of view the 100th anniversary will hardly do anything to drive up interest in the whole WW1 topic. Secondly, there is no theme the Camel could be added to. Thirdly, just take a look at the Camel polybag vs. the T1 polybag...

 

I think even in 3 years after EOL you can be happy if the Camel sees a gain of +50% on the retail price. I doubt it will ever reach double retail price at any point. So the question I ask is: Why buy ANY Camels as long as there is a T1 right next to it (on the shelves)? My guess is: If the Camel was about to retire this year, it could be included in the June or December sales since I think I wont clear out by itself fast enough if LEGO stopped production now. Of course I dont have sales data from LEGO for the Camel, I just cannot imagine personally it sells that well.

 

When the Sopwith Camel sold out in the past, prices jumped up to the $150 range and up.  This is a good indication that it is an investment winner.

 

Even though WWI may not be a popular era in general, the air battles are well known.  Ever hear of the Red Baron?

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EOL This Year

 

SSD (Retired Now)

Camper (Estimated July)

R2-D2 (Estimated November)

Death Star (Estimated November)

Simpsons House (Estimated December, as the 25th Anniversary ends in 2015)

Metalbeard's Sea Cow (Estimated November)

Tower Bridge (Estimated very end of 2014)

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To be honest, I never really understood why people love the Sopwith Camel as an investment (winner). Personally I do like the model and its functionalities. And if you are able to buy cheap you will get some profit post-EOL. But I just dont see people going crazy about this set anytime post-EOL. Firstly it is a historic plane from WW1 - not a very popular era, not a very "popular" war (even less talked about in the US than in Europe), no really popular machinery aside from Fokker Dr.1. And from my point of view the 100th anniversary will hardly do anything to drive up interest in the whole WW1 topic. Secondly, there is no theme the Camel could be added to. Thirdly, just take a look at the Camel polybag vs. the T1 polybag...

 

I think even in 3 years after EOL you can be happy if the Camel sees a gain of +50% on the retail price. I doubt it will ever reach double retail price at any point. So the question I ask is: Why buy ANY Camels as long as there is a T1 right next to it (on the shelves)? My guess is: If the Camel was about to retire this year, it could be included in the June or December sales since I think I wont clear out by itself fast enough if LEGO stopped production now. Of course I dont have sales data from LEGO for the Camel, I just cannot imagine personally it sells that well.

 

i am also bearish on the camel for the same reasons.  i own 1, and don't plan to pick up anymore camels.  personally, i try to invest in sets that have the potential for 100% or greater return and i don't put this in that category.  

 

on a different note: i do find it interesting that the simpson house could go as soon as this year.  that would be a 1 yr license, right?  own 1 but wasn't planning to stock up on these until next year.  hearing this could change my nearer-term purchase strategy.  

 

i'm betting that HH, TB, and DS retire this year.  if i'm 2/3 correct, ill be pretty happy. :P

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EOL This Year

SSD (Retired Now)

Camper (Estimated July)

R2-D2 (Estimated November)

Death Star (Estimated November)

Simpsons House (Estimated December, as the 25th Anniversary ends in 2015)

Metalbeard's Sea Cow (Estimated November)

Tower Bridge (Estimated very end of 2014)

Why so soon for the Sea Cow? My LEGO store has run out of stock constantly since release.
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The Galaxy Squad line is to be retired this year, not that anyone cares :D

They`re probably a horrible investment, maybe one day people will want them, but regardless, they`re really neat looking sets with lots of great parts. Like you said, no one really cares, but they`re still neat and Lego has done way, way worse in terms of set quality. Still surprising they are a bomb. 

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