9476 - The Orc Forge retiring

[emes]

I was able to pick up 5 more today at two separate targets in the Dallas area...So whats the consensus on this set? What could it be going for by Christmas?

 

Which ones, so I'll know not to go there?

 

I cleaned out the one on Irving on 183 today and the one on Precinct Line in Hurst this morning.

[TheDarkness]

Didn't take long for the mad rush to start on these. Seriously cannot wait for the panic buying on HD, hopefully there is another discount on the horizon for this set as stores try clear it out. I have 5 Orc Forges which I am happy with though will undoubtedly wish I had picked up more at some stage.

[LowestFormOfWit]

At some point, we'll all say we wish we had picked up more Orc Forges, I'm sure.

 

Most of the ones down here moved last year, as I don't think they sent the Targets in my area more than one or two cases a store. I was lucky to find one that still had some.

 

I'll be checking via the Target app constantly these next weeks for any signs of last proliferation to the retail floor.

[TheDarkness]

Hindsight is always marvellous. Sold too early, didn't order enough, should have waited.....

I'm not sure even which store even has the Orc Forge as the exclusive here in Australia.

They have been disappearing super quick at ebay now

[Guest ph4tb0i]

Got 2 more at Canadian retail which is about 8 dollars usd more. For the hype on this set im willing to take the hit on the margins lol

[Guest eightbrick]

I'm starting to worry about saturation with all the hype. I mean, this is one of the most talked about sets on this website, and most are talking about it as an investment. There's going to be a lot of sets on the market.

[weakside]

Lets hope for us investors...this set had a short run with very limited quantity and is in demand once it's totally gone from retail.  Being a Target exclusive helps.  Definitely nice to hear it's sold out online in the US.    

 

Just picked up 3 more at local Target Cleared off the shelf.  CAN retail is $49.99 which sucks...but walking up to the cashier I spotted the super/manager nearby and ask if she can price match the price I got couple of weeks ago.  She said they can't price match because the sale is gone/not current....than awkward silence (part of my trick is that I don't say anything, let them say the final yes or no), finally she said we don't do this often but I'll give you 20% off - yes!  Plus 5% after taxes so basically US price haha.  I'm happy.  Got 10 sets now so my stock is ok...don't think I'll try other targets, need to save up for other sets/deals    

[LowestFormOfWit]

I'm starting to worry about saturation with all the hype. I mean, this is one of the most talked about sets on this website, and most are talking about it as an investment. There's going to be a lot of sets on the market.

I don't find this to be a problem. The set has been above retail for a long, long time. People are going to want multiples to complete their Tower of Orthanc scenes, etc. There's so much talk because there's a lot of interest. And with interest comes demand.

 

I don't think it'll be The Zombies or anything, but it's definitely a winner.

[Guest betsy805]

Lets hope for us investors...this set had a short run with very limited quantity and is in demand once it's totally gone from retail.  Being a Target exclusive helps.  Definitely nice to hear it's sold out online in the US.    

 

Just picked up 3 more at local Target Cleared off the shelf.  CAN retail is $49.99 which sucks...but walking up to the cashier I spotted the super/manager nearby and ask if she can price match the price I got couple of weeks ago.  She said they can't price match because the sale is gone/not current....than awkward silence (part of my trick is that I don't say anything, let them say the final yes or no), finally she said we don't do this often but I'll give you 20% off - yes!  Plus 5% after taxes so basically US price haha.  I'm happy.  Got 10 sets now so my stock is ok...don't think I'll try other targets, need to save up for other sets/deals    

Love using the extended silent stare at people! Highly effective

[LowestFormOfWit]

Love using the extended silent stare at people! Highly effective

Oh yes. So much can be said about saying nothing at all.

 

Silence to intimidate them into just giving up before the possible coming argument starts.

 

Love it.

 

That or b***hface.

[willy431]

There are what 15 people on this site talking about it?  Maybe we have 10 sets each.  150 sets isn't going to make or break the market for this set.

 

15 people can make a lot of noise, in one small thread.  On one small site.  On the world wide web.

 

This is a global economy, 150 sets is nothing--out of the hundreds of thousands that were more than likely produced.

[Fcbarcelona101]

I agree with Willy's comment above. I think sometimes we get caught up and think that the amount of people in this site is representative of the overall population. We are a very small percentage of people doing this relative to the whole LEGO buying population, and our own constraints (storage, capital) will more than likely keep things flowing well in the near future.

[weakside]

Love using the extended silent stare at people! Highly effective

 

Oh yes. So much can be said about saying nothing at all.

 

Silence to intimidate them into just giving up before the possible coming argument starts.

yeah, I find it's tougher for most people to say no...s/he who breaks the silence is the weaker one lol.  JK.  The pressure is always on the employee or sales person.  Being nice helps and I was realistic, not like I was asking for a HUGE discount.  If I didn't get that 20% off I would of just put the sets back/walked away...no biggie, as long as they don't sense your 'desperation'  

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

There are what 15 people on this site talking about it?  Maybe we have 10 sets each.  150 sets isn't going to make or break the market for this set.

 

15 people can make a lot of noise, in one small thread.  On one small site.  On the world wide web.

 

This is a global economy, 150 sets is nothing--out of the hundreds of thousands that were more than likely produced.

 

Honestly when I worry about this I think about the buzz around Harry Potter sets, Around the last UCS set to retire, the shuttle, around the others that have gone.

 

This one is exclusive. To me because of the popularity its a sure thing. They didn't make near as many of these as Potter's Castle, or the burrow, or the Imperial Shuttle.

[ExoBro94]

To be honest, I could care less about saturation. There is/will be much more demand for this licensed set than there is/will be for zombies going forward. Especially with the Tower of Orthanc being released like literally 6 days ago. Saturation is BS in my opinion. Yes it's an actual thing that can compromise an investment, but I find that it is only for the short term. If you think too many sets are being listed for sale, then don't list yours. Patience is key in this game... in many ways. 

[emazers]

Well for a $40 Lego set it looks like at least half of you are crying the blues that why didn't I get more of these, I think most of you just waited and waited for a big discount that never really happened, it was only a $40 set and its been out for 14 months. Everybody had plenty of time to get plenty, and since nearly everybody thinks it will be a great money maker we all should of gotten at least 20-30-40 of them. With some of the big sets like the Haunted House, SSDS, Tower Bridge, Helm's Deep if you guys don't have any yet, or have only a few don't wait forever to start picking a few up now, if not alot of you guys are going to regret for years that why did I only have 5 Haunted Houses, or 2 SSDS etc. Now I am putting nobody down or anything, but I do the same thing once in a while, I knew the harry Potter 4842 Castle would be gold so why did I only buy 40 of them and since I was only paying $85 for them. or the 10212 Imperial Shuttle last May Lego Store had them for $207, why did I only buy 10, sure I do have 50 but I should of gotten alot more. And I am sure I am going to say the same about The haunted House, Volkswagen camper and many other ones, but waiting for the big sale before you buy any big sets that could be retiring soon is making a big mistake. And the guys that are still seeing Vampire castle's for $69 Wholesale prices why ain't you buying them. I would rather have 5 haunted Houses then 8 A-wings, 5 Tie Fighters, 10 Skiff's etc.Etc.    ED

[TheDarkness]

If you are patient, the saturation will ease. People sell when they feel like it and when there is an abundance listed the consumer has more choice. Later on, it comes down to how badly they want the set when there are less sellers with stock.

[akohns]

I just don't see saturation being an issue because there sounds like there are very few people who have picked up a lot. I rarely buy sets at retail and I broke down and bought two last week on top of the used one I got in a collection that I'm keeping. I think it's going to be a winner but I really don't usually justify buying anything at retail. That being said this set was never on sale. There are 10 Targets within 100 miles of me and 2 are listed as limited quantity. This set's EOL path and everything leading up to it has been completely different.

[Darth_Raichu]

The big winners out of all this are Target and LEGO.  A couple of years a go they had to take some lost by putting these kind of sets on clearance to get rid of them.  Now, everything is gone at full retail... 

[legopocalypse]

I managed to pick up more than 20 Orc Forge's over the past 6 months and I'm glad I did as I thought this set would be around much longer than it was. I don't have many Barrel Escape's though. Anyone stockpiling those?

[Guest ph4tb0i]

Well for a $40 Lego set it looks like at least half of you are crying the blues that why didn't I get more of these, I think most of you just waited and waited for a big discount that never really happened, it was only a $40 set and its been out for 14 months. Everybody had plenty of time to get plenty, and since nearly everybody thinks it will be a great money maker we all should of gotten at least 20-30-40 of them. With some of the big sets like the Haunted House, SSDS, Tower Bridge, Helm's Deep if you guys don't have any yet, or have only a few don't wait forever to start picking a few up now, if not alot of you guys are going to regret for years that why did I only have 5 Haunted Houses, or 2 SSDS etc. Now I am putting nobody down or anything, but I do the same thing once in a while, I knew the harry Potter 4842 Castle would be gold so why did I only buy 40 of them and since I was only paying $85 for them. or the 10212 Imperial Shuttle last May Lego Store had them for $207, why did I only buy 10, sure I do have 50 but I should of gotten alot more. And I am sure I am going to say the same about The haunted House, Volkswagen camper and many other ones, but waiting for the big sale before you buy any big sets that could be retiring soon is making a big mistake. And the guys that are still seeing Vampire castle's for $69 Wholesale prices why ain't you buying them. I would rather have 5 haunted Houses then 8 A-wings, 5 Tie Fighters, 10 Skiff's etc.Etc.    ED

 

+1

 

It's essentially the herd mentality at the moment and people are buying on impulse. Not many people have a proper "long term" investment strategy and pick whatever's on sale or brings dollar signs to their eyes (i.e. the promise of instant gratification and doubling their money before the Target return policy even expires). Most of us who were banking on this set had a minimum of 4-5 stashed up and are just doing a small top up at the moment. 

 

However, at the end I think it's also depending on the profile of the investor (e.***. capital to invest? risk tolerance? etc.) . 15 year-olds on this board simply don't have enough money to buy 10 HH or 20 TBs and look at those who do with envy, and those that do have the capital to buy may not necessarily want to take the jump as a lot of us are first time investors (i.e. much more risk adverse as at the end of the day they're investing in plastic bricks). Ironically though that last point is what convinced me to jump in fast and furious at the first go. Once more and more people get their taste of profits, they'll take more risks and buy more stock, which reduces our opportunity to make greater profits as the years go.

[Guest eightbrick]

However, at the end I think it's also depending on the profile of the investor (e.***. capital to invest? risk tolerance? etc.) . 15 year-olds on this board simply don't have enough money to buy 10 HH or 20 TBs...

Haha, you can say that again. I don't really mind though, being a teen has its perks too. Like not having to pay taxes. Or work. Or change baby's diapers.

 

It seems the general consensus on saturation with the set is that profit won't be affected long term, and now seeing all your excellent arguements for this, I find it hard to keep my earlier view. I guess, looking back, there are very, very few examples of saturation/overproduction resulting in a loss in profits (the only one that comes to mind is some of the less rare collectable minifigures, but the ones that really suffered were also a victim of low popularity). I was probably over-reacting to the amount of chit-chat about this set. You guys are awesome, thanks for setting me on the right path without being rude by any standard  LOL this is the second time today I had to get set back on track.Thanks for the insights.

[Gondorian]

Hope you guys are right. Just bought 3 from ASDA Direct for

[jaisonline]

Hope you guys are right. Just bought 3 from ASDA Direct for

[Gondorian]

We are purely speculators. Go with your gut feeling, My suggestion to to invest in set you personally like.

 

Hmm, yes, I suppose.  Worst case, I end up with a bunch of Orc Forges for myself and can make a really spectacular scene to go with my Tower of Orthanc!