Price drops in December

[Fcbarcelona101]

Have you guys noticed that one of the best months of the year to purchased retired and expensive sets seems to be in December? Several sets like the 10179, 10181, Green Grocer, etc. Seem to drop somewhat significantly in holiday season, while we know that most LEGO sets actually peak during this time.

[Coneil21]

Have you guys noticed that one of the best months of the year to purchased retired and expensive sets seems to be in December? Several sets like the 10179, 10181, Green Grocer, etc. Seem to drop somewhat significantly in holiday season, while we know that most LEGO sets actually peak during this time.

Interesting .... I wonder why that is.

[Grolim]

Competition for the Xmas dollar perhaps?  Might have to keep an eye on that.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Competition for the Xmas dollar perhaps?  Might have to keep an eye on that.

That's what I thought. I actually just submitted a small personal blog article with a little more research and numbers that seem to suggest it happens mostly with some specific themes, but it's definitely something worth taking into account when selling around the holidays.

[Diabolos80]

I actually noticed the opposite. The most desirable sets seem to start rising in December, peak around February, then start to droop a bit. With so many sets though, it's possible some go one way and some go the other way.

[akohns]

I actually noticed the opposite. The most desirable sets seem to start rising in December, peak around February, then start to droop a bit. With so many sets though, it's possible some go one way and some go the other way.

That's been my experience as well.

[TheDarkness]

Yes, I have always found the prices to be spiking. From now til about mid September is when I will be fully stocking up. I am expecting a big Christmas this year.

[BuckeyeFanDan]

I really want to pick up a Winter Village Toy Shop (10199) sometime this summer on the secondary market before the price gets even higher this holiday season.  This would be to build, not for investment, as it is the only Winter Village set I am missing. 

[Guest ph4tb0i]

I really want to pick up a Winter Village Toy Shop (10199) sometime this summer on the secondary market before the price gets even higher this holiday season.  This would be to build, not for investment, as it is the only Winter Village set I am missing. 

Same. I just bit the bullet and picked one up on BrickLink for $150 today. Kinda bitter that I had to pay the premium but oh well, I'm contributing to our Lego economy.

 

Looking at completed listings on ebay it seems this one is definitely on the rise though. Good for those who bought in at a low price!

[BuckeyeFanDan]

Same. I just bit the bullet and picked one up on BrickLink for $150 today. Kinda bitter that I had to pay the premium but oh well, I'm contributing to our Lego economy.

 

Looking at completed listings on ebay it seems this one is definitely on the rise though. Good for those who bought in at a low price!

I will probably get one from BrickLink as well and was figuring about $150.  To take some of the sting out of it I am planning to sell an extra Winter Village Bakery I have later in the year. 

[Guest ph4tb0i]

hahaha i'm doing the same!  

[Grolim]

There may be some way to quantify or verify this using the camelcamelcamel data 

[jaisonline]

I actually noticed the opposite. The most desirable sets seem to start rising in December, peak around February, then start to droop a bit. With so many sets though, it's possible some go one way and some go the other way.

Ditto

[Fcbarcelona101]

There may be some way to quantify or verify this using the camelcamelcamel data 

I checked the data from BP's price guide for 18 different sets from three major themes: modulars, large scale models and SW UCS. I can't post the table right know, but I do remember that at least 14 of the sets saw drops in price from november to december, some as much as 30% (Eiffel Tower). Most of the other themes, and especially seasonal ones do spike up in price, but the majority of sets in those three themes actually seem to go down. I hope Jeff or Ed approve the article a little later today so you can actually check some of the numbers out.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Again, this is only for retired sets, not currently available.

[Grolim]

Sounds great, look forward to reading it.  So you were looking at older retired sets using BP market value.  In my tiredness I read "retired" as retail in your OP and that's why I thought of camelcamelcamel and the retailers competing for Xmas dollars.

[ApesInCapes]

Same. I just bit the bullet and picked one up on BrickLink for $150 today. Kinda bitter that I had to pay the premium but oh well, I'm contributing to our Lego economy.

 

Looking at completed listings on ebay it seems this one is definitely on the rise though. Good for those who bought in at a low price!

Do you count the Holiday trian set as a part f the holiday series?  If so, that one can be a pretty penny also.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Sounds great, look forward to reading it.  So you were looking at older retired sets using BP market value.  In my tiredness I read "retired" as retail in your OP and that's why I thought of camelcamelcamel and the retailers competing for Xmas dollars.

 

Here's the table I wanted to post

 

[StarCityBrickCompany]

Have you guys noticed that one of the best months of the year to purchased retired and expensive sets seems to be in December? Several sets like the 10179, 10181, Green Grocer, etc. Seem to drop somewhat significantly in holiday season, while we know that most LEGO sets actually peak during this time.

Yes, for retired sets this is true. Christmas is mostly for buying Lego sets for kids who want what they see on the commercials (not as much for the older sets). So for the out of stock new sets, of course you get the spike. As far as the retired sets, they are not as much in demand on kids Christmas lists, there are also many Christmas time only sellers - so there is more competition. Another reason is that most of the AFOL's stop buying for themselves around Christmas (to spend their $ on others), so the take a break on buying (but it helps Jan-Feb, when they return to buying for themselves).

[Ed Mack]

Make sure the data you are looking at is not off a month. Remember, the data we release in January is for December. I usually found prices to rise in December, then drop in January, but there might be anomalies. Feel free to write the article. It might stir some debate.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Make sure the data you are looking at is not off a month. Remember, the data we release in January is for December. I usually found prices to rise in December, then drop in January, but there might be anomalies. Feel free to write the article. It might stir some debate.

 

That might just be it. I did submit the article in the personal blog section but now that you mention that I need some clarification. If I go to the Price Guide info for the 10179, for example, and see that the charts say the price in December was $1,970 and that the number sold was 26 then those numbers are not from December but from November?

[Ed Mack]

That might just be it. I did submit the article in the personal blog section but now that you mention that I need some clarification. If I go to the Price Guide info for the 10179, for example, and see that the charts say the price in December was $1,970 and that the number sold was 26 then those numbers are not from December but from November?

I believe the charts are on the correct month. I was just referring to the monthly data we release in general. You are probably correct. Let me check with Jeff, but you might have discovered a new phenomena here..."The Big Set Swoon." Don't change anything yet.