Ideas #005: 21104 - NASA Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity Rover

[exciter1]

I'm stubborn and it's against the wiring in my cerebrum to pay over RRP for anything.  If I miss the boat, I'll just wait for the next one that looks promising which is the 21109 ExoSuit in this case.  I missed the boat on the 21103 and glad I did as it's a crap set IMHO.

 

It's all crap to you.  You're getting rid of your whole stash and going with Bitcoin investments, unless I was dreaming. 

[Hayttees]

3 x RRP? Leave it accept defeat and move on to the next good thing

Yeah you are right

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[holleman67]

I disagree....buy before they go higher. They will be $150 shortly

[@rtisan]

I've been watching the average price of this creep up on ebay and showing my wife and she's finally ok with me spending so much to get 100 of them

You buy the lady a very nice present with the profits, got to keep the better half happy. 

 

 

Yeah you are right 

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No, I`d pull the trigger and not think twice. I screwed up and didn`t buy more. If it`s gone there will be $ to be made even at $75. 

[Crustybeaver]

I disagree....buy before they go higher. They will be $150 shortly

 

So 'shortly' they will go from $70-80 to $150? I highly doubt it, maybe in a year or two. it's difficult to see how buying these at inflated prices are going to return better profits than a GE, TB, VW etc

[holleman67]

Tb aren't necessarily showing eol signs . The rover is limited quantities and steadily pushing along. I think once Christmas comes and retired shows up in the us $150 is inevitable

[Guest TabbyBoy]

It's all crap to you. You're getting rid of your whole stash and going with Bitcoin investments, unless I was dreaming.

Not exactly, I'm just offloading all small/medium CITY sets and those that represent too much hassle for meagre reward. Hence, I'm sticking to big stuff only which I should've done from the start. Yes, I did buy Bitcoins instead of SSDs with this month's allowance as I feel the timing is right. It's not all crap to me just sets I don't like and sets that aren't worth investing in. I love the Mars Rover and I'll never sell the one I've built.

[grackleflint]

Well then should everyone be buying all the ones at Amazon that are now at $70?

At a $70 buy in, you are going to need it to hit $150 for any decent return.

Only problem is that once it hits $90/$100, a lot of resellers are going to cash out if they bought at $30/35.

Just saying/theorizing that if you are buying now at $70, you may have a long wait to $150, like the people paying $650 for an SSD. Hope I'm wrong but it could be like 41999 which was a quick double and is now stalled.

[trekgate502]

Tb aren't necessarily showing eol signs . The rover is limited quantities and steadily pushing along. I think once Christmas comes and retired shows up in the us $150 is inevitable

 

Spot on.

[Crustybeaver]

Spot on.

There's nothing spot on about an assumption. It's a prediction, and a wild one at that. If you're happy paying triple RRP in the hope it will return large profits then go for it. Personally I think there's a limit on how far this set will climb in a year or two. I would feel more comfortable investing in a VW for the same money. Each and everyone to their own.

[trekgate502]

There's nothing spot on about an assumption. It's a prediction, and a wild one at that. If you're happy paying triple RRP in the hope it will return large profits then go for it. Personally I think there's a limit on how far this set will climb in a year or two. I would feel more comfortable investing in a VW for the same money. Each and everyone to their own.

Crusty i did not mean to imply buying at 80 for 150 was spot on. I was saying spot on I agree it will be 150 at Christmas. It is a guess but I agree. I have most of mine cost averaged at 38 each. I would not say spot on 80 to 150 is a good thing to do and not guaranteed. I may buy some more before those on ebay realize it is officially eol. But I would rather buy more GE's first. Wish I bought more rovers at 35. Hope that helps.

[Crustybeaver]

Wish I bought more rovers at 35.

Hey at least you've got some. I had a few and sold them about a week before they sold out on the assumption they weren't going to be winners, how wrong I was!

[Jojoyojimbi]

bottom line on this set is that if you don't have it already, or really soon, you've missed the boat

 

there's limited numbers released, it sold out every run in a matter of hours

 

the limit was 1 per order, making the RRP effectively $45ish dollars with tax and shipping unless you bundled with other stuff from the lego store.

 

the only way any of us got large quantities of this set was to buy from people who got them from canada or somewhere else where there was no limit.

 

I HIGHLY doubt there are more than 5 or 6 people in the entire world with more than 100 of this set in reserve, and those of us that do have large amounts:

a) paid more than retail

aren't selling them yet

c) would gladly take more

 

I suggest having a few, you'll be able to trade them for modulars or other large sets, if you've got 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 dollars each into them, that's still going to equal a modular+ type return in probably another 3-4 months.

 

Now if I can just find someone come December with 100 grand Emporiums that would want to trade for 100 Rovers I'll be set for my next run

[Crustybeaver]

Now if I can just find someone come December with 100 grand Emporiums that would want to trade for 100 Rovers I'll be set for my next run

Some perspective is needed here:

A - Last 3 UK Rovers sold for

[mauro23]

i am one of the 5 or 6 persons who have over 100 rovers - exactly 101. Mauro

[Alcarin]

I also do not believe Rovers can be 150$ within a year period from now on.... 2 years perhaps, but if people start unloading them at 100$ or 120$ it will take 3 times as long to reach 150$

[tractorboy]

Lovely, glad I managed to grab some of these. I only got 6 from LEGO Shop at Home buying in pairs along with a free Martian Manhunter each time, so it worked out as a good deal. Wish I got more but didn't want to push it.

I'm certainly in no hurry to sell, as they take up so little space. Happy to hold them for a year or two at least.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I also do not believe Rovers can be 150$ within a year period from now on.... 2 years perhaps, but if people start unloading them at 100$ or 120$ it will take 3 times as long to reach 150$

 

This is the issue people forget.

 

Sets may triple or quadruple - but the problem is there are plenty of people content to see the set double and then offload them quickly. SO I totally agree, once this thing is around 100$ people will flood the market and it will slow down completely.

[Pseudoty]

I think with this set we definitely need to look at supply vs demand in the USA versus other markets separately. I think if Jojo said only 5-6 people in the USA have 100 or more that would be spot on due to the purchase limits of 1 per order per household at LEGO Shop at Home and that the only other conventional means to obtain multiples of this set was at TRU online and eBay at $34.99.

All four times TRU had this item in stock it was gone in less then an hour not sure how many people were buying 99 from TRU online as it was technically possible but some people were complaining that it was $5 over MSRP and not many had or would drop $3500 on this set at that time. Also based on the quantities sold by TRU eBay the last time I saw it listed and I purchased was 5/8/14 and they had 16 units sold. I know you can't extrapolate inventory to TRU online but the amount available at TRU eBay was very limited.

I know you could purchase this set at other locations like the Kennedy Space Center but at a premium $50 Or from our friends in Canada like I did, thank you Weakside

So I don't know where these people will be coming from to flood the market at $100. The highest number of listings I have seen for sale on eBay is 39 with some of those having more then one unit available.

As far as demand I think I remember reading that ther was no limit or it was 5 units per order at LEGO Shop at Home in the UK and that it was readily available. So perhaps there has not been much demand for this set from the begining overseas? I don't think we can compare it to MBS limited to 10,000 units never sold in USA now at 6 times RRP in less then a year as people like me want to complete there Arch series

Is there demand to complete the CUSSO/Ideas series? Will we know the amount of sets produced and the global distribution?

I am hoping this set hits $150-$180 BIN with free shipping by Xmas we shall see. I also like the trading potential of this set. Either way I think it is a winner and glad I am stocked, well not like Jojo, and will enjoy the ride.

[Darth_Raichu]

This is the issue people forget.

 

Sets may triple or quadruple - but the problem is there are plenty of people content to see the set double and then offload them quickly. SO I totally agree, once this thing is around 100$ people will flood the market and it will slow down completely.

Isn't this a problem with ALL the sets touted as good investments on BP ? How is SSD perceived to be immune to this but not the Rover ?

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Isn't this a problem with ALL the sets touted as good investments on BP ? How is SSD perceived to be immune to this but not the Rover ?

 

Yes. And you are right its not. Thats why I have hesitated. The moment it hits 800 or 900, you are seeing them go.

[Pseudoty]

Another thought I had is we know there has only been 3 production runs of the Rover, 45S3 51S3 04S4, all in Denmark.

Could distribution be heavier in Europe due to production location?

Assuming 10,000 units per run gives us 30,000 units produced, no facts on the numbers just trying to put it in perspective.

[MartinP]

Another thought I had is we know there has only been 3 production runs of the Rover, 45S3 51S3 04S4, all in Denmark.

Could distribution be heavier in Europe due to production location?

Assuming 10,000 units per run gives us 30,000 units produced, no facts on the numbers just trying to put it in perspective.

That could be true, but we would have to know the exact numbers of the production runs guess at the total produced. For all we know, there could be 20,000 units per run.

[johnwray]

Last 3 on ebay uk for 75. Buy or not to buy?

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Don't. Will it make money? Yes, but there are better opportunities.

Here's a dumb analogy that I just pulled out of my butt. Your bathtub faucet is running and you have a pile of plastic pitchers next to you. The water is the rising value of Lego sets over time, and you're investing in pitchers to catch as much water as you can before it disappears down the drain. The more capital you have to invest, the more and bigger pitchers you have on hand. Do you grab a pitcher that is already 3/4 of the way full and fill it the rest of the way? No, you grab an empty pitcher so as to catch as much as you can as quickly as you can by minimizing the amount of water that spills into the tub while you fumble for another pitcher.

Not my finest analogy in the world, but hopefully you get the point.

[TheOrcKing]

Don't. Will it make money? Yes, but there are better opportunities.

Here's a dumb analogy that I just pulled out of my butt. Your bathtub faucet is running and you have a pile of plastic pitchers next to you. The water is the rising value of Lego sets over time, and you're investing in pitchers to catch as much water as you can before it disappears down the drain. The more capital you have to invest, the more and bigger pitchers you have on hand. Do you grab a pitcher that is already 3/4 of the way full and fill it the rest of the way? No, you grab an empty pitcher so as to catch as much as you can as quickly as you can by minimizing the amount of water that spills into the tub while you fumble for another pitcher.

Not my finest analogy in the world, but hopefully you get the point.

Despite the 'source' of where you pulled that from, it's actually a pretty good clean analogy.