New Investor

[Guest betsy805]

Hi,

If there is a more appropriate place to post my question please let me know and I'll move it!  I'm new to lego investing and currently have 1 each of the tower bridge, cargo train, grand emporium, and Goblin King...want to get a couple more different sets, but have to figure out which ones first!  Anyhow, my question is: How long after EOL do you have to wait before you sell?  Have you had better success at Bricklink or Ebay for those EOL sets?  Thank you for your help to this newbie, and I look forward to this new hobby!

[Guest ph4tb0i]

Depends in your strategy. Nobody can really tell you when its the best time to sell. Some people like flipping, some will wait till a certain profit percentage or some sell when their gut tells them to. The only thing this place can provide with is a tool that will hopefully help you make the right decision.

[Ed Mack]

Some people flip right away and make a profit, others flip right away and make nothing.  A quality set like the Tower Bridge might appreciate for years.  I am not one to recommend quick flips for most LEGO sets.  If you have the space and extra money, let the sets sit for a couple of years...maybe even 4-5 on some.  You might be surprised the returns you get.  

 

There is a vocal "flipper" coalition on these forums that like to promote that sort of investment strategy.  I on the other hand play it much more conservative and look for long term gains.  It's very much like stocks.  There are many ways to make money, you just have to decided what your risk tolerance and time frame is before choosing a type of LEGO set.  My way might not always maximizes profits, but it lets me sleep at night.

[Maverick2k1]

Ultimately you'll have to make your own conclusion on how much profit you want out the set. Sell it quick for a decent return so you can reinvest into more sets or hold on to it for longer and let it appreciate..that's something only you can decide. I think everyone has their own strategy and I personally think each of them have advantages/disadvantages.

[kerrmando]

I wait a long time, usually two to three years =) Thats hard to do though

[Guest betsy805]

Thanks everyone for your replies, it's good to know there isn't a right or a wrong way to do it

[Ed Mack]

Thanks everyone for your replies, it's good to know there isn't a right or a wrong way to do it

The best advice I can give you is to pick the right sets and buy them at a discounted price.  Every LEGO set gets discounted before EOL.  EVERY ONE.  Never pay retail.  If you buy at a discount, you are on your way to making a profit when the set retires.

[LowestFormOfWit]

Yes. The most important thing, no matter your preferred method of investment, is to keep your entry price point as low as possible.

 

Also, I know a lot of members here, myself included, keep a balance between sets to flip and sets to sit on for later appreciation. There's no real drawback for mixing it up if you can keep your price low enough.
 

It's certainly easier for me personally to flip sets because I can keep a steady stream of sets at very low price points, so while I might not make the most money per set, I make it quickly and often, and can turn that profit around into more sets. Heck, there's some sets I could sell to other members at MSRP and I'd make a profit because I was able to get my entry point so low.

 

For instance, I bought some Attack on Weathertop for $20.00 a box. I could flip that this holiday season for $45 to $55+ profit.

Compare it to a member who buys it at MSRP of $60 who is sitting on it until 2014 holiday season. Even if it doubles in value, they're only making a tad more than I am, and I made it a full year before they did, which I likely threw into other investments.

 

But, again, that kind of stuff only works if you can keep your price points low. You really have to gauge the kind of market you live in, especially if local retailers are your primary sources of LEGO.

[Snowcrash]

Welcome aboard!

 

I wish I could give you an easy answer, like "sell 18 months after the official announcement of EOL from Lego", but the reality is that without any hard data to digest about how many sets are floating around out there in the market it really is a guessing game about when to exit your position.  I can tell you that every single set will eventually hit a "top" in the secondary market, and I will also tell you that you are not a failure as an investor if you do not consistently wait to sell your sets at this "top" price every single time

 

The reality is if you were to make a chart of the typical sets appreciation post EOL it would likely appear as a curve that flattens out over time.  If you were to then retroactively analize this curve I'm guessing you'd find most sets would be best sold in the 2-3 year timeframe, as the majority of the appreciation probably takes place over this period of the sets life.  I haven't formally done this, but that's just my informal impression of the Lego market.  There are always going to be outliers, and again your entry point will also heavily influence your final results unless you have a runaway hit like the UCS Falcon or Green Grocer on your hands.

 

The good news out of all this is as long as you're careful in picking sets that should perform well in EOL (and from the ones you've posted you're off to a good start), you carefully keep track of all your costs (if you spend $50 in gas driving around to save $20 in clearance prices at the register you're going to get chewed up and spit out without even realizing it), and you strive to get your sets 20% or more of MSRP (this is to account for a roughly 10% brokerage fee to your selling platform and 10% net profit to you), then you will be well on your way to beating the traditional investment vehicles available to mainstream investors.

[Sauromosis]

What Snocrash said.  I'd add that I've gravitated towards larger sets now that I realize the shipping and transaction costs to sell.

[Studebricker]

Hi,

If there is a more appropriate place to post my question please let me know and I'll move it!  I'm new to lego investing and currently have 1 each of the tower bridge, cargo train, grand emporium, and Goblin King...want to get a couple more different sets, but have to figure out which ones first!  Anyhow, my question is: How long after EOL do you have to wait before you sell?  Have you had better success at Bricklink or Ebay for those EOL sets?  Thank you for your help to this newbie, and I look forward to this new hobby!

 

The only thing I would add is I think it helps if you really are a fan of what you are selling (in this case, Lego).  Otherwise, I think it takes longer to get a feel for what may or may not be a hit.  The added benefit of buying what you like, of course, is you can just open the set and build it if you don't get the price increase you were hoping for.

[Etan]

Welcome to the site.

[Spartikis]

I usually expect to wait 1-2 years AFTER a set has been retired, so typically i will sit on a set for around 3 years total. I average a little over 100% return on all of my LEGO investments, so about 30% annual return. Obviosuly some happen quick, i bought TC14 poly bags in store for $5 and went home and sold them online for $25 that night, and then there are the Fire Brigades ive had forever with no retirement date in sight!

[Guest betsy805]

I usually expect to wait 1-2 years AFTER a set has been retired, so typically i will sit on a set for around 3 years total. I average a little over 100% return on all of my LEGO investments, so about 30% annual return. Obviosuly some happen quick, i bought TC14 poly bags in store for $5 and went home and sold them online for $25 that night, and then there are the Fire Brigades ive had forever with no retirement date in sight!

That's a great return!  What is a TC14?  I'm not hip to all the lingo yet!

[Spartikis]

That's a great return!  What is a TC14?  I'm not hip to all the lingo yet!

It was a starwars robot minifig, that was a special offer in spring 2012, you had to buy $200 worth of lego and u got it free. Well about 3 months after that they were selling the left over minifigs they didnt give away, saw them sitting on the shelf and bought all they had.

[theegypt]

I am a new lego investor as well but have been involved with other somewhat similar type investments for awhile.  The only thing I could add to the great info above, is to take your time.  As a new investor you might feel like you need to catch up or get on board while you still can.  But I think the better strategy is to read as much as you can, research, learn the market, and take advantage of the deals when they come available. 

[Fcbarcelona101]

Welcome to the site!!

[matt1147]

Welcome! I'm new to the site also (couple months now) and just got serious about lego investing. It's hard to NOT spend tons of $$!!