Lord of the Rings/The Hobbit - general discussion

[redcell]

This theme has turned into a longer-term investment for me for sure. 

 

In my experience, whenever you find yourself saying this or saying that you're into a set "for the long haul," that is a pretty good sign that you've made a bad bet and should dump the inventory as quickly as possible.  While you're sitting around and waiting for these sets to appreciate, you could be parking that money into other sets that will appreciate much more quickly.  It's hard to cut the cord sometimes, but I have never regretted doing so after the fact.

[naf]

The Lego LotR theme has an identity problem.  First, the movies are PG-13 so Lego's target audience is technically too young to even watch them.  Yet, the sets are definitely designed with kid's and playability in mind.  So, you have an entire theme that AFOLs should be crazy into, but it falls flat because of those design issues.  Lego should have probably slapped a 16+ age label on this entire theme and designed fewer, but more complicated sets.

 

 

I pretty much agree.  I think that Unexpected Gathering is the best set in the entire series.  It may not reach the overall price point of something like Helm's Deep or Orthanc since the starting price point on those was higher, but the Shire/Bag End is iconic.  I bought one for our family display, and it gets more positive comments from people than anything else.  The detail on the inside of the set is pretty remarkable.  The journal, writing desk, the stove, the table, maps of middle earth on the floor...they crammed a lot of creativity in that little space.

 

I agree.  Down the road, if someone is going to get just one LotR/Hobbit set, this one is probably it (even over Orthanc).  It's well designed, has some nice building techniques, instantly recognizable, and the details cover both LotR and The Hobbit.  It has a small footprint so it's easy to display.

[TheOrcKing]

This theme has turned into a longer-term investment for me for sure.

In my experience, whenever you find yourself saying this or saying that you're into a set "for the long haul," that is a pretty good sign that you've made a bad bet and should dump the inventory as quickly as possible.  While you're sitting around and waiting for these sets to appreciate, you could be parking that money into other sets that will appreciate much more quickly.  It's hard to cut the cord sometimes, but I have never regretted doing so after the fact.

Even at a loss?

[ravenb99]

Agree unexpected gathering is a great set. Built it with my daughter after seeing the 1st movie. She associated that with the hobbit and I think of all the sets from the series its the most recognizable by far. The set is very detailed.

[redcell]

Even at a loss?

Absolutely. If you could buy a set today for $100 and sell it in 3 years for $150 or buy a set today for $90 and sell it in 1 year for $135, which would you choose? IMHO, it's better to take a small loss today than hold out for a meager profit tomorrow. Whenever you're "in it for the long haul," you're pissing profit away by tying up your money on an unproductive set.

[Spartikis]

Absolutely. If you could buy a set today for $100 and sell it in 3 years for $150 or buy a set today for $90 and sell it in 1 year for $135, which would you choose? IMHO, it's better to take a small loss today than hold out for a meager profit tomorrow. Whenever you're "in it for the long haul," you're pissing profit away by tying up your money on an unproductive set.

It depends. if you investing in something that will turn meager profits but you know of a set that will be a real winner and you need the money to buy it then yes it makes sense to sell at a slight loss or hopefully break even.

 

But if you dont NEED that money to buy the other winner set then it is kind of dumb to sell if you know you will atleast break even or make a profit in the future.

[jeff_14]

It depends. if you investing in something that will turn meager profits but you know of a set that will be a real winner and you need the money to buy it then yes it makes sense to sell at a slight loss or hopefully break even.

 

But if you dont NEED that money to buy the other winner set then it is kind of dumb to sell if you know you will atleast break even or make a profit in the future.

Not dumb at all. If you buy a set for $100 and it falls to $80 and you think it will go to $110 in a year, but you know you can sell it now and buy a different set for $80 and it will go to $120 or more in 6 months, then sell, whether you need to or not. 

[Achilles]

The only caveat to this is that your time is worth something too. (At least mine is ) Factoring in fees, time, hassle, etc - May make it worth it simply to hold on to, depending on the projections.

[redcell]

It depends. if you investing in something that will turn meager profits but you know of a set that will be a real winner and you need the money to buy it then yes it makes sense to sell at a slight loss or hopefully break even.

 

But if you dont NEED that money to buy the other winner set then it is kind of dumb to sell if you know you will atleast break even or make a profit in the future.

 

Not really...you save yourself the transaction cost of selling the slowly appreciating set, but you are better off putting that money into a better set regardless of whether you could acquire additional copies of that set with other assets.  If a set is a winner, two is always better than one.

[remy1492]

Iwas thinking with thr new lego hobbit game there might be renewed interest in it. Theres one more movie to go so ya never know.

[zskid00]

Is there another Hobbit game coming out?  I thought they were going to make the last movie levels available as DLC for the first game that came out earlier this year?

[iahawks550]

LOTR and Hobbit fans have been around for 40 years. They are all very dedicated and well versed. This theme will do well over time.

[Neosphinx]

I'm not even sure the long run will fix LoTR. I'm dumping my meager inventory of LoTR except for unexpected gathering for a small margin this x-mas.

[GhostDad]

It depends. if you investing in something that will turn meager profits but you know of a set that will be a real winner and you need the money to buy it then yes it makes sense to sell at a slight loss or hopefully break even.

 

But if you dont NEED that money to buy the other winner set then it is kind of dumb to sell if you know you will atleast break even or make a profit in the future.

Right, but...  How exactly do you "know" you will at least break even or make a profit in the future (especially after adjusting for inflation, or other costs like not being able to use your closet for clothes because it's full of LotR sets)?  This reminds me a little of my favorite quote from Cramer on CNBC: "When a stock has peaked, you have to sell."  Thanks man!  Now who's going to send me the memo when my stock peaks?

[redcell]

Right, but...  How exactly do you "know" you will at least break even or make a profit in the future (especially after adjusting for inflation, or other costs like not being able to use your closet for clothes because it's full of LotR sets)?  This reminds me a little of my favorite quote from Cramer on CNBC: "When a stock has peaked, you have to sell."  Thanks man!  Now who's going to send me the memo when my stock peaks?

 

It's a matter of percentages.  If a set sits on my shelf for one year and has appreciated 20% or less from MSRP, I know that there is a much higher probability that I can pick a newer set that will appreciate faster than that set than there is of the set on my shelf now appreciating rapidly over the following 12 months. 

[Locutus001]

I think that LOTR had quite some cool sets! So might be that it will be the winner.

 

On the other hand The Hobbit is newer which brings us newer(possibly better) design and bricks and there still sets to come.

 

I think all in all you should not see it as a which has better value since both have their winners.

 

I mean if you'd ask which one has better value Star Wars or Creator? I wouldn't be too sure as it really depends on the set and both have great sets.

Even if you'd ask which one between Star Wars and Ninjago where I surely would say Star Wars! it would depend on the Set.

 

Get the cool sets and you'll get the winners, buy the crap and it won't matter if it is LOTR or Hobbit.

[glenbart]

I put them in the same bag, I can pick out winners from each theme, but overall, and figures suggest, its about the same.

[biniou]

I put them in the same bag, I can pick out winners from each theme, but overall, and figures suggest, its about the same.

 

Just to say that your opinion (no offense my friend) is not shared on forums. People are pissed off to not see a 2nd wave for LOTR, a theme they loved and had some potential (where is minas tirith ?). On the other side, most of The Hobbit sets are playable sets, quite bad to be displayed, with (too) funny dwarfs.

 

I see a good potential in LOTR, and think the only thing that can save the hobbit sets is that the 3rd movie will be awesome. Otherwise these sets will be used by fans like a "last resort" for their beloved LOTR sets.

 

Again, no offense. ^^

Edited September 14, 2014 by biniou

[glenbart]

Just to say that your opinion (no offense my friend) is not shared on forums. People are pissed off to not see a 2nd wave for LOTR, a theme they loved and had some potential (where is minas tirith ?). On the other side, most of The Hobbit sets are playable sets, quite bad to be displayed, with (too) funny dwarfs.

 

I see a good potential in LOTR, and think the only thing that can save the hobbit sets is that the 3rd movie will be awesome. Otherwise these sets will be used by fans like a "last resort" for their beloved LOTR sets.

 

Again, no offense. ^^

You see a good potential in LOTR because it is your own preferential favourite. It is going to be years and years before either theme does well.

[biniou]

Well, the fact that for you LOTR and The Hobbit are the same is also your opinion (which is great, all opinions are welcome).

 

I don't know for you but as for me I do not give my opinion only on sets, but also on movies (and books). Because these sets are licenced and it's very important.

 

 

edit: to explain myself better, IMHO to compare The hobbit (movies) to LOTR (movies) is like to compare SW 1/2/3 to SW 4/5/6...

Edited September 14, 2014 by biniou

[Locutus001]

I agree that there might be more fans of LOTR than there are of The Hobbit.

Firstly the book is bigger with the "main" story (if you allow me to say so... I no it's not totally true but I think you get my point anyways).

 

Secondly the hobbit movies just follow the LOTR and are not equally "BIG". This is rather personally but I have few friends who are looking forward to see the next hobbit movie as they have been looking forward to the next LOTR movie.

 

Anyways, when it comes to LEGO investing I stay true to what I've said: It depends on the SET more than on the theme. (For example the Haunted House seems to be rather successful and none here would doubt the investment potential of it whereas the theme itself has not really been that good has it?)

[biniou]

It depends on the SET more than on the theme.

Oh yes, of course, that's very true.

This is the same for all themes. But overall:

1. LOTR sets are better

2. LOTR theme is much appreciated

 

But yes, if you compare "gandalf arrives" (LOTR) to the "unexpceted gathering (Hobbit), certainly the second will do better.

 

 

Secondly the hobbit movies just follow the LOTR and are not equally "BIG". This is rather personally but I have few friends who are looking forward to see the next hobbit movie as they have been looking forward to the next LOTR movie.

 

This is another debate, but yeah, it's because the hobbit movies were only two in the beginning, and then producers decided to make 3 (boring) movies instead of 2...

[TheOrcKing]

Lord of the Rings in a nutshell.

[Locutus001]

yeaaa.... NO!

 

There was horse riding and hawk flying involved as well!!! Even saw some ships ;-P

[TheOrcKing]

yeaaa.... NO!

 

There was horse riding and hawk flying involved as well!!! Even saw some ships ;-P

I know. I enjoyed the movies and books but I still find that clip funny as hell. :lol: