Lord of the Rings/The Hobbit - general discussion

[zskid00]

I was tempted but I am less convinced about the LOTR theme as an investment winner now.

 

I have quite a few LOTR / Hobbit sets in my inventory and I still think this theme could be a winner.  I bought all my sets at really good % discounts so it should be easy to make good returns, but the question is how long will I have to wait?  It seems that the entire theme is heading to EOL after the last wave of Hobbit sets this fall/winter.  Once it's gone from retail, I wonder if there will be renewed interest in the secondary market to drive prices higher. 

[DarthDrake]

You may have a drop off of pure Lego fanatic interest after a few years, but I think there will be continued interest after EOL because of the people that are just looking for LOTR toys in general. There is and has been a market in the past for toys from this franchise and I don't ever see that changing, because of the popularity of the books and now movies.

Once people find a Lego set they like, especially one from a franchise like this, they tend to want to have them all. So it will likely be that these sets bring some out of their dark ages. That's what happened to me.

[4gotAboutDre]

Same here, drake. LoTR is the license that brought me back. Funny thing is when they first came out, I remember telling my wife I wished they had cool lego sets like that when I was a kid. Her and I play the lego video games but I never considered getting back into the hobby due to cost. Until one day I bought my first middle earth $10 lego set and I was hooked on lego again.

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[Guest TabbyBoy]

Apart from HD, Orthanc and maybe-just-maybe the Pirate Ship.... IMHO, I don't think LOTR will have the timeless appeal of StarWars, Super Heroes or Harry Potter.  This may be why the performance of Orc Forge and Weathertop is disappointing so far in the UK at least.  Returning my 100 Orc forges to Tesco before it was too late was one of my better decisions I think.

 

It's early days still but, I hope LOTR has a strong following in the years to come to help those have have invested heavily in the theme.

[TheDarkness]

Shelob Attacks and Uruk-Hai Army are definitely on the rise and even Weathertop is moving albeit slowly. I know locally that I am very happy with the returns so far. My faith in the Hobbit sets have wavered significantly but I am starting to see solid returns on the first wave already so will continue to buy where I can. 

[DarthDrake]

The new movies for Star Wars and from J.K. Rowling are going to keep the fires burning for both of those themes. Not that Star Wars really needs it anyway, but it will make that theme even stronger. Plus, Orlando has the Wizarding World of HP and that's also soon to be in other locations, so that theme will see another boost.

 

LoTR is done, practically. So I can see where you're coming from. But, I still think there's enough interest to keep the theme valuable in the long run. And one of the reasons is because it is done. It will make it a rarity in a sense. It will probably fall somewhere between current Indiana Jones and Harry Potter values. And from what I gather, both of those themes have done well up to this point. But, I'm definitely no expert. Just gut feeling. 

[CNH1974]

I have quite a few LOTR / Hobbit sets in my inventory and I still think this theme could be a winner.  I bought all my sets at really good % discounts so it should be easy to make good returns, but the question is how long will I have to wait?  It seems that the entire theme is heading to EOL after the last wave of Hobbit sets this fall/winter.  Once it's gone from retail, I wonder if there will be renewed interest in the secondary market to drive prices higher.

Hope you are right. LOTR/hobbit make up about 30% of mine inventory.

[jeff_14]

Hope you are right. LOTR/hobbit make up about 30% of mine inventory.

Same here. Unlike the Star Wars theme, there is no danger of newer versions coming out in future, but the theme is based on a timeless book that was the most popular book of the 20th century and that continues to enthrall readers, in part thanks to the Hobbit trilogy.

 

I also bought mine cheap so even if this theme fails, I can build one heck of a fantastic fantasy scene with these sets and my various castle sets at very low cost

[Quacs]

Just my opinion, but I think the LOTR/Hobbit theme will perform similarly to the Indiana Jones theme.  You'll see some nice gains from most of the sets once they get retired, but no Cafe Corner-like gains. 

 

The appeal of both themes are heavily driven by minifigures, and both are based on a series of popular movies with a similar target audience.

 

Once the theme(s) is/are retired, I think you'll start to see all of these sets appreciate, some faster than others.  As people realize they will never be able to get LOTR or Hobbit in Lego form again, the panic buying will swing into full effect.

[Gondorian]

As you might guess from my username here, I'm big into LOTR. I'm positive it will do well. They are nice sets and nice minifigs, perfect for collectors who will become aware of them in future but missed out now.

[@rtisan]

Will we see another Sam minifigure? If no, he`s going to really drive the Shelob set up. Already a $15-$20 minifig. Uruk-Hai is doing well, worth picking up for investment at $40? I`m leery, but it could still be profitable. Helm`s Deep is nearing $200 last I checked, could be $250 over Christmas, which would be excellent. Gandalf Arrives, bah, who cares. It`s a great theme what will continue to do well. Question now is, what is the ceiling going to be for these sets, and also, at what price would be the maximum buyin for these sets? 

[CNH1974]

Will we see another Sam minifigure? If no, he`s going to really drive the Shelob set up. Already a $15-$20 minifig. Uruk-Hai is doing well, worth picking up for investment at $40? I`m leery, but it could still be profitable. Helm`s Deep is nearing $200 last I checked, could be $250 over Christmas, which would be excellent. Gandalf Arrives, bah, who cares. It`s a great theme what will continue to do well. Question now is, what is the ceiling going to be for these sets, and also, at what price would be the maximum buyin for these sets?

I would say no, because as far as I am aware, the entire LOTR theme is done. No new sets.

Ok, it was a store employee who said but there have been no rumours of any more sets anywhere.

[Alcarin]

I would say no, because as far as I am aware, the entire LOTR theme is done. No new sets.

Ok, it was a store employee who said but there have been no rumours of any more sets anywhere.

 

Even if more sets are due to be released We would likely not hear about it either until New year or atleast until Hobbit wave 3 is out with possible advertisement...

[DarthDrake]

Overall, Lego did a great job with LoTR. It's a shame it's probably over. If it does come back, I hope it's with Minas Tirith.

[Alcarin]

Yes they did, I wish the 2nd wave was bigger and more diverse.... it was simply too little soldier type of sets for such a theme as LOTR was (massive battles)

[Spartikis]

Overall, Lego did a great job with LoTR. It's a shame it's probably over. If it does come back, I hope it's with Minas Tirith.

i imagine one more run of sets for the final moving coming out at the end of this year.

[zskid00]

Even if more sets are due to be released We would likely not hear about it either until New year or atleast until Hobbit wave 3 is out with possible advertisement...

 

We know a few more sets are coming later this year for the Hobbit: BOFA final movie.  LEGO already skipped a beat with no new LOTR sets for the first half of this year.  That speaks volumes to me about what their plans are for this line.  I don't see them continuing the license much into 2015 and I don't expect any new LOTR sets to be produced.  We won't really know that until Toy Fair in Feb 2015.  If no new sets are revealed by then I would expect this line to ride off into the sunset.  They may keep Orthanc around a little longer, but they also may not depending on when the license expires.  I hope I'm wrong but with no more movies coming, a lack of new LOTR sets in 2014, and waning retailer interest, I think this is the last year for Hobbit/LOTR.

[CNH1974]

Unfortunately LOTR did not sell as well as expected, so there are unlikely to be new sets. I was told that he age group was wrong. Just as kids get into LOTR they are growing out of plaint with lego. Making it a rather niche line. The current sets will end soon but Orthanc will continue for a while.

[trekgate502]

Unfortunately LOTR did not sell as well as expected, so there are unlikely to be new sets. I was told that he age group was wrong. Just as kids get into LOTR they are growing out of plaint with lego. Making it a rather niche line. The current sets will end soon but Orthanc will continue for a while.

 

I am curious.  The above makes sense to me but do you have an inside source to confirm this from Lego corporate?  I would still think that they will be releasing the 3 or so Hobbit sets for the 3rd movie that have been designed.  But then I do not disagree after that it is done.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Unfortunately LOTR did not sell as well as expected, so there are unlikely to be new sets. I was told that he age group was wrong. Just as kids get into LOTR they are growing out of plaint with lego. Making it a rather niche line. The current sets will end soon but Orthanc will continue for a while.

 

So surprising though. I mean does anyone really think this sold worse than other themes that got more runs? I mean, judging by how the sets are doing after EOL despite being stocked up on pretty well, I feel like they had to be decent.

[Alcarin]

We know a few more sets are coming later this year for the Hobbit: BOFA final movie.  LEGO already skipped a beat with no new LOTR sets for the first half of this year.  That speaks volumes to me about what their plans are for this line.  I don't see them continuing the license much into 2015 and I don't expect any new LOTR sets to be produced.  We won't really know that until Toy Fair in Feb 2015.  If no new sets are revealed by then I would expect this line to ride off into the sunset.  They may keep Orthanc around a little longer, but they also may not depending on when the license expires.  I hope I'm wrong but with no more movies coming, a lack of new LOTR sets in 2014, and waning retailer interest, I think this is the last year for Hobbit/LOTR.

 

Well there are 2 explanations for no LOTR in 2014....

 

1. LEGO movie sets (shelf space)

2. Hobbit changing to 3 movies as late as it did!

 

We all know LEGO has limited capacity and shelf space, and LEGO movie was more important with a bang of loads of new sets that quite possibly took the space of LOTR, which is also why there was no new Castle afterall.....

 

Hobbit (which is why we even got the license or they!) got changed to 3 movies and LEGO probably thought its more important to release Hobbit this year than LOTR in December and Hobbit next year......

 

So it is entirely possible (no idea how likely) that LOTR and Hobbit were originally planned as 2 waves but got split up (hence only 4 sets in wave 2 and now 4 sets in wave 3 for Hobbit which combined makes for a healthy wave of and is thus totally plausible that we will indeed get 4 more sets next year when the blue ray edition (Hobbit + LOTR) is released together which is fall or later next year.....

 

 

Thats a theory which is pretty logical but it might also be that LOTR is done, which then would be a huge shame.....

 

Afterall there is ''only'' like 4 sets we need to cover most of the fun and important stuff

 

 

 

Balrog (extra Boromir possibly or Moria orc with new helm for diversity)

Witch King on Pelennor fields (comes with Eowyn)

Army builder type of White wall with Gondor soldier Gondor Ranger and Faramir(or atleast Soldier and Faramir)

 

Or we change Minas Tirith Gate assault and push it to the main set with Grond and more figures to make a nice playset instead of army builder.....

 

And put something else in a 60$ mark.

[zskid00]

Well there are 2 explanations for no LOTR in 2014....

 

1. LEGO movie sets (shelf space)

2. Hobbit changing to 3 movies as late as it did!

 

 

 

As a fan of LOTR, I hope there are more sets to come but other licensed themes have been short-lived once the movies have run their course (Harry Potter, Indiana Jones).  You could be right about point #1, but if LEGO is paying for the license I'm not sure they would hold off on more sets due to the volume of other theme sets available.  Also, the Hobbit announcement about 3 movies was made in July 2012 so it gave LEGO plenty of time to develop additional sets for LOTR to be released in 2014 if they wanted to.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

If there was another theme that I regretting investing in apart from CITY and 5-digit Friends, this could be it.  It appears to be more for the US than the UK market.

[CNH1974]

I am curious.  The above makes sense to me but do you have an inside source to confirm this from Lego corporate?  I would still think that they will be releasing the 3 or so Hobbit sets for the 3rd movie that have been designed.  But then I do not disagree after that it is done.

 

Hehe, my "corporate" sources are a couple of guys I got talking to from two different lego stores. But I am not down on store employees like a lot of people here are. Also the ones I have met have never said what they say is definite fact because they freely admit they do not know. But in terms of LOTR they know how fast the stock was moving and it was not as fast as they expected. The large backlogs at tru and amazon last year back this up.

 

So surprising though. I mean does anyone really think this sold worse than other themes that got more runs? I mean, judging by how the sets are doing after EOL despite being stocked up on pretty well, I feel like they had to be decent.

I think the UK price point was quite a bit higher. 9746 and 9471 took months to clear their stock after EOL and still are around the original RRP.

[Alcarin]

As a fan of LOTR, I hope there are more sets to come but other licensed themes have been short-lived once the movies have run their course (Harry Potter, Indiana Jones).  You could be right about point #1, but if LEGO is paying for the license I'm not sure they would hold off on more sets due to the volume of other theme sets available.  Also, the Hobbit announcement about 3 movies was made in July 2012 so it gave LEGO plenty of time to develop additional sets for LOTR to be released in 2014 if they wanted to.

 

Well if you are right and 2015 is when License trully ends (not start of 2016) then it means by new year Orthanc is also gone!