waddamon Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Can someone point me in the direction of the inventory flow data that is supporting all the, good sellers, slow sellers statements on this forum? Not interested in the local toy store inventory as the barometer. People seem to know what sells good or not, I was under the impression Lego was still a private company and did not release inventory flow numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iahawks550 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 People don't know. But, you can tell a lot by looking at sets on shelves, looking at Ebay sales, looking at Amazon inventory, looking at what goes in and out of stock at Lego.com. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazuli16 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 29 minutes ago, waddamon said: Can someone point me in the direction of the inventory flow data that is supporting all the, good sellers, slow sellers statements on this forum? Not interested in the local toy store inventory as the barometer. People seem to know what sells good or not, I was under the impression Lego was still a private company and did not release inventory flow numbers. it's all conjecture at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, iahawks550 said: People don't know. But, you can tell a lot by looking at sets on shelves, looking at Ebay sales, looking at Amazon inventory, looking at what goes in and out of stock at Lego.com. Amazon sales rank isn't a bad meter for sales volume. It's not a collectors' site, but take s look at a modular like the oft maligned Pet Shop. It's still ranked #196 in building sets despite the ~$150 price tag. This thing sells. The other modulars in stock and sold by Amazon right now, by comparison, Palace Cinema is #396, Detective's Office is #368, and Brick Bank is #563 (as of this post... they are updated hourly). Parisian Restaurant is out of stock and only sold by third parties right now. As to why PS sells faster on Amazon right now... that's where conjecture comes in. Will the demand hold up after retirement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TabbyBoy Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, biking_tiger said: Will the demand hold up after retirement? You'll have your answer in about a year from now. Out of the Pet Shop, the IDEAS sets and other "Retiring Soon" sets, I think we should prepare for disappointment for at least half of them. I miss the olds days of the Sure-Things 21104 and 41999. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Briggs Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 18 minutes ago, iahawks550 said: People don't know. But, you can tell a lot by looking at sets on shelves, looking at Ebay sales, looking at Amazon inventory, looking at what goes in and out of stock at Lego.com. Seal codes can function as an indicator, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said: Seal codes can function as an indicator, too. And we had inventory from SAH for 6 months last year too. Past demand doesn´t guarantee future levels but Chima and Bionicle were honking back then and look what happened. DS sold very well during 2x vip as did EV. There are more ways of getting data but I don´t want to say too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 9 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said: You'll have your answer in about a year from now. Out of the Pet Shop, the IDEAS sets and other "Retiring Soon" sets, I think we should prepare for disappointment for at least half of them. I miss the olds days of the Sure-Things 21104 and 41999. Of course "sure things" led to too many resellers in search of the great gold rush. I'm happy the horde herd is being culled a little. I do feel for those for whom this is a primary livelihood, though. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mauro23 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said: You'll have your answer in about a year from now. Out of the Pet Shop, the IDEAS sets and other "Retiring Soon" sets, I think we should prepare for disappointment for at least half of them. I miss the olds days of the Sure-Things 21104 and 41999. I'm still sitting on 60 x 21104... ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TabbyBoy Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 hour ago, mauro23 said: I'm still sitting on 60 x 21104... ;-) PM me if you want to offload the whole lot but, I am a cheapskate! Of course, I won't pay the €125+ for each one that you'd get if selling separately. With the recent failure of the ESA Mars mission, eyes are back on NASA and now could be a good time to sell. Let's hope that LEGO don't resurrect it - LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfiepops Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 46 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said: PM me if you want to offload the whole lot but, I am a cheapskate! Of course, I won't pay the €125+ for each one that you'd get if selling separately. With the recent failure of the ESA Mars mission, eyes are back on NASA and now could be a good time to sell. Let's hope that LEGO don't resurrect it - LOL. I'm not selling my 2 until they find aliens. long term hold or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TabbyBoy Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 18 minutes ago, Alfiepops said: I'm not selling my 2 until they find aliens. long term hold or not? You mean not selling your 2 until they make their findings public? I don't think we'll ever know as the Earth is just too big an apple cart to upset. Just be aware that the current price is probably as high as it'll ever be and I wouldn't be surprised if LEGO bring the 21104 back if NASA make a significant public announcement. If NASA becomes huge news, LEGO would have to milk it, right? Back on track... Since you're also in the UK, what's your gut feeling on future 21108 values? I think 1.5 x RRP within 6 months of retail supply drying up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfiepops Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) 17 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said: what's your gut feeling on future 21108 values? I think 1.5 x RRP within 6 months of retail supply drying up. This really is a no brainer. It could/should be up there with BTTF. When available it seems to be everywhere then EOL...poof. I opened the first Ecto I bought for display and love it. If this doesn't succeed 2xRRP within a year post retirement it really is time to hand the keys back. Edited October 26, 2016 by Alfiepops 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TabbyBoy Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, Alfiepops said: This really is a no brainer. It could/should be up there with BTTF. When available it seems to be everywhere then EOL...poof. I opened the first Ecto I bought for display and love it. If this doesn't succeed 2xRRP within a year post retirement it really is time to hand the keys back. Let's hope so as I already had 36 before I ordered another 100 from Asda last week! I have the same faith with Doctor Who and WALL-E that I also bought from Asda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfiepops Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said: Let's hope so as I already had 36 before I ordered another 100 from Asda last week! I have the same faith with Doctor Who and WALL-E that I also bought from Asda. Do you really have that belief? At a discounted £30 a pop that is still 3K + Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, Alfiepops said: Do you really have that belief? At a discounted £30 a pop that is still 3K + He said he bought his faith in Asda. Seems they really do sell everything these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfiepops Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 16 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said: Let's hope so as I already had 36 before I ordered another 100 from Asda last week! I have the same faith with Doctor Who and WALL-E that I also bought from Asda. Do you really have that belief? At a discounted £30 a pop that is still 3K + 4 minutes ago, Val-E said: He said he bought his faith in Asda. Seems they really do sell everything these days. To loosely quote Woody Allen when asked did he believe in God and the afterlife. His reply was "No, but i'm bringing a clean pair of underwear just in case". That's how I feel when trying to decide on how many sets to invest in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voltron Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) I can't help but feel like this set is too good to be true. It ticks all of the checklist: - Great build + very accurate representation of item - Good minifigure selection - Kids & AFOLS love it - GB is a cult classic Its just too good be true, its like one of those adverts you see whilst browsing the web "lose 50kg by just eating pizza" or "I made £10k a month working from home" etc. I live in a pretty remote area, so when I hear that my local b&m shop owner says that resellers are regularly buying 5+ sets, I can't help but feel like this is going to be one of the MOST horded sets ever. Almost everyone feels like this set is going to be a winner, from the above reasons and from BTTF performance, but I can't help but think this set is just going hover around RRP as literally everone has 10+ copies, theres only so many you can sell on ebay even if it is a great set. Theres probably more than enough for everyone on the planet to own a ecto 1. I'll probably eat my own words in 1 years time, but I just can't invest in this, it just seems like a scam lol Edited October 26, 2016 by Mhd747 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 You might be eating Ectos in a year´s time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiliusThunderhead Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Ok - I love this set but just taken a quick look at brick-set and can see some validity in what you say. Nearly 15k owners - in the ideas line followed by BTTF with circa 10k then exo suit and Wall-e at 7.5k a pop. So its well bought up. Obviously that's just one piece of data subject to massive conformation bias. But I cant help thinking that even if everyone has 10+ copies its still such an iconic set and has GBHQ to keep it relevant. I cant imagine anyone who buys GBHQ to not want this set and those who see GBHQ but can't justify the spend might just settle for this at an over inflated RRP. I'm not saying it will perform like BTTF by any stretch of the imagination but I also don't think that once it finally goes EOL (I'm guessing this actual goes from retail this year) you won't be able to pick it up below RRP. Surprised it hasn't gone backorder though. Anytime this has been on HDUK at < £35 it gets wiped out. And when i used to look at the 25 top sellers earlier this year it was often in there (around 15 to 25 mark). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iahawks550 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 This set has just about everything going for it. It will probably be in heavy demand for 5 years+ after it retires. It's not often Lego makes a set that will appeal to a generation of people, but this is one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asharerin Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Do you think a new Ecto-1 in the Ghostbusters theme would harm the IDEAS version? Stay safe out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mudcatsfan Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 9 hours ago, waddamon said: Can someone point me in the direction of the inventory flow data that is supporting all the, good sellers, slow sellers statements on this forum? I'm not sure I'd be allowed to post a picture of everyone's butt. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaylay Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Do you think a new Ecto-1 in the Ghostbusters theme would harm the IDEAS version? Stay safe out there.They already have ecto 1/2. As for a remake of OG ecto-1... never. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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