Average Retail Shelf Life

[Grolim]

How long would you say on average a set lasts at retail? I'm thinking of an average type set here, for example most medium to large sets. Some, like modulars and , cough... 10188 DS... cough, are around for a long time. But what about standard sets from the past and present (think Tie Fighter, Jabba's Palace, R2-D2, POTC ships, Trains, Diagon Alley, Batcave, Bag End, etc etc). The reason I'm curious as I'm looking at the CAGR of sets and we calculate this from the release date of the set. When in reality we often make purchases nearer EOL, making the growth rate higher. (not to mention discounts off retail, but that's another topic). What say you?

[comicblast]

I am going to say 1.5 years. Just in between 1 and 2. We see many small sets discontinue after a year, and many other medium sets in the $25-$60 range last for about 2 years. These sets probably make up the majority of the LEGO inventory, which is why I took an average of them and went for 1.5 years. Larger sets starting with 10xxx usually last longer, more like 2-5 years, though we only have 1 set that has last 5 years (guess which one?) ;)

[TheOrcKing]

On average for me, typically about a year. For some sets it seems less than that. I guess the median would be 1 1/2. It's rare for anything to sit on shelves for more than a year around me really, even some big ticket items. I don't think I have ever seen something in store for two or more. This may be more based on where you live and how populated it is.

[Blackjack]

I went with 1.5.

[Grolim]

Definitely different for different countries. I quite often only see sets for short windows of maybe 6 months because stores obviously only get 1 or 2 shipments in. But being avaialble online at places like Amazon means I count it as 1.5 to 2 years for me as well.

[TheOrcKing]

But being avaialble online at places like Amazon means I count it as 1.5 to 2 years for me as well.

I didn't even think about online; just in store. I really don't do much at all for shopping online and it shows. :red:

I guess normal averages would be like in store for a year, online about 2 or so, and 1 1/2 either way to be safe.

[Grolim]

Interesting results so far, about what I was expecting. It really does make a decent difference to your investment return rates if you pick a set up nearer the end of it's shelf life. It may even work out better getting the set at a retail price just before EOL than it is to get a bit of a discount soon after its release date. Having this info will help make better investment decisions.