Bitcoin and other forms of digital currency

[cladner]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

So, I guess you are saying that there is no valuation metric that can be used.

With a non dividend company you are still buying a small percentage of that company (which has some value, even if it is based on its potential value).

I want to believe, and I have gotten into ETH during the dips - but I very much look at it as a gambling move (not an investment).

no real metric to go against other than other crypto prices to see how far relative to others.  

i am huge believer in dividend paying stocks and power of compounding.  STWD is my biggest holding.

i am not a blockchain fanatic or an early adopter/believer as others in the group though i have watched my wife's investments transform the family finances.  i do not pretend to fully understand the implications of the blockchain on the financial system or even on the future of concert tickets and scalpers.  

there is just opportunity to trade volatility once you kind of get the lay of the land.  i knew deep in my heart over the weekend when polygon matic was in the 0.70-0.80s it  would be back over $1.00 in a week or 2 because i have been watching the chart and this is momentum trading pure and simple.  i bought a little but i didn't not think it would be up to $1.60 by 11 am monday morning.  it is this type of opportunity that is very tantalizing and draws people into this market.  wtf polygon matic is actually being used for or by i have no clue.  i just know that when the price dipped, it was way below its 150 day moving average and assets have a tendency to follow certain rules either on the way up or down.  in order to invest in crypto you have to suspend your belief like when you go to a movie .  you have to take the asset seriously.

buyin slowly on dips, hope for the best recognizing the rite of initiation is a 55% drop in the value of what you just bought and that by getting through that experience without selling you will develop a greater sense of self confidence and overall more optimistic hopeful outlook on life knowing that when the sh!t hits the fan and the fed has to keep interest rates super low so that the compounding us debt doesn't consume the entire budget, the only way out of the mess will be to hyperinflate .  that is when having a little crypto on the ledger will be very handy.

this is the insane world we find ourselves living in.

in gambling you lose ALL your money .  you make a bet - you lose - all the money is gone.  crypto all the money is not gone.  you only lose when you chicken out and lock in your loss.  crypto is far more sophisticated than gambling and is no more gambling than trading in the stock market is gambling.

[BrickLegacy]

In 10 years would you rather have one Bitcoin or $37,000 USD? It’s crazy to think this is now a legitimate question.

Exciting times ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dennugsmello]

The Zuck signaled all his goat worshipping buddies when to sell. 

[Bricklectic]

22 hours ago, BillyBricks said:

Has your friend checked Bitforex or Kucoin? I have never used leverage because I am good at losing my money pretty steadily without it, but I think one of those may have that option. 

Thanks.. Got in 100x with 10k yesterday at 1750 ETH. Now up 40% or 40x with leverage. 400k baby!!!!

Sigh. It's nice to fantasize.

[Foreman Porgy]

The ticker APPS (Digital Turbine) got hammered the past month, but it’s a solid company. 

[elmaslıefendi]

I'm going to stop posting here, because it's somehow not received well to give constructive criticism for fomo investment strategies. One last piece of advice from me on this thread for anyone buying now or in the future (don't bother reading if you know what I'm going to say & you don't like it) :

1: it's not investing, it's gambling. If you really need to participate in this market, if you can't resist: Don't put in more than 2-2,5% of your money. Period, don't stretch it. Hold real assets & most importantly hold on to them. From a monetary standpoint, that'd be gold & silver. Also, if you have decent gains on that 2% you put into crypto, don't be the one that's left holding the bag. Sell when you sit on nice profit & pass it onto the next guy. Buy back value with that profit, things you can actually use. 

I invested a couple of times with this rule of only putting in 2%. The first time, greed took over, I sat on 4 digit % gains & didn't sell. It came crashing down in no time & I capitulated at 100% profit. Second time (this bull run), I got out at the top (by luck). Other's I know weren't so lucky, went in with more than they could afford to lose, bought the top, sold the bottom, lost thousands & were sad. Third time? Well there won't be a third time for me. I just did it out of curiosity, to understand it, not because I believe in the concept of cryptocurrencies. In fact, I think it's very dangerous & I don't want to to support it by putting money in anymore. It's a road to a cashless world & I'm sure we don't want that to happen. I also dealt with the emotional & sensitive community a lot, through telegram & twitter, apart from the scams that are everywhere, it's the greed, blind cult-like following & ignorance of the investors that really put me of. Most are willing to lose everything, even if they put all of their money into it. And they motivate others to do the same. The craziest thing I saw was a guy in a telegram post, saying he lost everything & his wife left him because of holding & not selling. He ended up selling the bottom because he said he had to pay his medical bills somehow. He believed holding would pay off, because others with no moral conscience told him it would be a good idea. Really felt sorry for the guy, but it's his own fault.

Anyway, that's all I wanted to say about this topic. I don't want to be a downer or anything like that, I just think it's important to tell some people who are new in the market to be very cautious. There is too much euphoria & irrational behaviour, not enough critics. Good luck, have fun, stay rational. 👍

Edited May 25, 2021 by elmaslıefendi

[Setheronie]

Generally, you should never invest based on another person's opinion. You shouldn't do anything because someone else said so. So this forum would only be helpful for objective learning, not taking to heart someone's opinion. You need to make your own decision.
With that said, it's ok to see popular opinion. 
For example, I think we're right before optimism phase on this bull run. What do you guys think?

 

[Setheronie]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:42 AM, House Schubert said:

I have been looking for breakdowns like this for ETH... do you have any leads? 

Sorry, I don't, but the whole market moves with bitcoin. It is the rising tide that lifts all boats and wrecks all boats. It's basically what all other crypto is backed by, like gold is supposed to be backed by the dollar but isn't anymore. So based off BTC you can make a fairly informed decision where we are with ETH. Next logical question would be how does it move with BTC?

[BrickLegacy]

Some great points in this thread about making sure you understand what you are getting into and what is a reasonable amount of risk given your own personal financial situation ...

But can we stop calling it gambling when large corporations and prominent investors (Musk, Dalio, Cuban, O'Leary, etc) are putting money into it? 

Speculation? Maybe. Gambling? I'm not so sure.

[exracer327]

On 5/24/2021 at 9:23 AM, KShine said:

I have researched crypto, etc., and while I could see the argument for it having a permanent place in the modern world, its high valuations seem impossible to justify.

What metric can be used to show that bitcoin (or others) should be worth $1,000,000 $100,000 $60,000, $25,000 $10,000 $1,000 or $100?

I agree with your valuation assessment. 

I know some that call crypto a commodity, except with a commodity you still have something tangible and it is accepted as such world-wide.  Crypto is basically pixels.  Much like when someone buys an in-game product.  In side the game it is rare and valuable, outside the game it is worthless and meaningless.  (I.E. If someone refuses to accept crypto as payment, then it is worthless).  At the same time, if the game shuts down - there is no recouping your hard-earned (fiat) money that you put into the game.

Personally, I look at crypto as a collectible.  It is worth what the community believes it is worth.  Before everyone assumes that means up and up, there are many collectibles that are all but worthless now (minus the rare one that people really want).

Crypto is also different from a mint or bank.  Both have regulations for producing and keeping money.  Crypto has no regulation to speak of, except what each crypto allows - in some instances it is the crowd.  

Not many have taken crypto seriously, but in the USA the SEC and IRS are now getting involved.  I wonder if the publicity of the pipeline company paying off the hackers in crypto is a bit of a tipping point.   I'm not saying the ride is over, but it is changing.

Edited May 25, 2021 by exracer327

[exracer327]

1 hour ago, Setheronie said:

Generally, you should never invest based on another person's opinion. You shouldn't do anything because someone else said so. So this forum would only be helpful for objective learning, not taking to heart someone's opinion. You need to make your own decision.
With that said, it's ok to see popular opinion. 
For example, I think we're right before optimism phase on this bull run. What do you guys think?

 

My dad showed me this chart when I was 7 years old.  Before everyone had home computers, my dad tracked the stock market using grid paper and would watch for this pattern. 

If you look at bitcoin (compare to 2017-2019) I think we're at the complacency stage just before a big drop.  I say that partially because bitcoin has done this same pattern three times before.  Each drop was close to 75-80% from the previous high. 

Again, just my opinion, but I'm waiting to see where it goes from here.  It dropped to $30k over the weekend and everyone went into a brief panic, then it recovered because people bought the dip.  Just imagine if it drops to $20k what people will say or do.  BTW, 80% of the most recent all-time high ($63k+) is $13k. 

Advice I heard in 2020 during the market crash - "Don't try to catch a falling knife."  Words of wisdom that I have learned from.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

27 minutes ago, exracer327 said:

My dad showed me this chart when I was 7 years old.  Before everyone had home computers, my dad tracked the stock market using grid paper and would watch for this pattern. 

If you look at bitcoin (compare to 2017-2019) I think we're at the complacency stage just before a big drop.  I say that partially because bitcoin has done this same pattern three times before.  Each drop was close to 75-80% from the previous high. 

Again, just my opinion, but I'm waiting to see where it goes from here.  It dropped to $30k over the weekend and everyone went into a brief panic, then it recovered because people bought the dip.  Just imagine if it drops to $20k what people will say or do.  BTW, 80% of the most recent all-time high ($63k+) is $13k. 

Advice I heard in 2020 during the market crash - "Don't try to catch a falling knife."  Words of wisdom that I have learned from.

"Don't try to catch a falling knife."

"Buy the dip"

🤔

BTW, 80% of the most recent all-time high ($63k+) is $13k 🤔

[oneknightr]

6 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

"Don't try to catch a falling knife."

"Buy the dip"

🤔

BTW, 80% of the most recent all-time high ($63k+) is $13k 🤔

My old coworker used to tell me the don't catch the falling knife saying. He said to wait until it hits the floor, then pick it up. The problem is knowing when it hits the floor.

[Roklion]

2 minutes ago, oneknightr said:

My old coworker used to tell me the don't catch the falling knife saying. He said to wait until it hits the floor, then pick it up. The problem is knowing when it hits the floor.

Too bad there is no floor, it's a trampoline. If you wait for too long, it will bounce back up and hurt you

[House Schubert]

so, I'll admit that I am just a dummy with some ideas about the future.  Most of the time I am lucky enough to know that I don't know as much as I think I know, and that many of the things I think of as solid ground just need a bit of water before they are very squishy.

And, obviously it would be super great to pick the knife up off the floor, but mainly that metaphor is funny but a crappy illustration of the issue.

I believe that the world will be very different in the next 20-40 years.  I believe that we are sitting at the edge of an event horizon, where it is impossible to reasonably predict the future based on the past.   Our dads taught us to farm with a donkey pulled plough, but if we want to pass this farm down to our kids, we better be the first one in the county to get one of them new fangled tractors.

I don't know if BTC, ETH, ADA, LTC, OMI will factor in heavily in the future, but It seems like Cryptoassets are going to play a role for MYRIAD different reasons.  And, the returns seem to be asymmetric, but there is no way to know until years from now.  And so, I put in what I can afford to lose, and I don't sell.  Meanwhile, most of my money goes in to boring, moderately performing assets.  But I do push it. Because in 20 years, I won't miss the $2000 that I occasionally dupmped into crypto, and the $100 a week that I DCA.  So if it is worth zero, whatever.  But, there is the possiblity that $20,000ish  invested over 2017-2021 will turn into $500,000 or more.  Each generation is lucky if they get one asymmetric opportunity.

And so, As long as I don't FOMO buy at $63k and FUD sell at $30k, I think it's a win.  I bought more at $40K, and $38K and then $39K... did I catch a falling knife?  Hard to know, ask me in 24 months.  Seriously. Ask me on May 25th 2023.  I think it is an easy bet to make at whatever level is a no brainer for you. because of its possible asymmetry.

 

Also, we all need to have our number... Your number is basically whatever $ number times .04 equals the amount of annual cash you require for the lifestyle you want. One dollar more than your number is wasted time (the only limited resource) if you do something to earn it that you wouldn't choose to do if you didn't have to earn it.  Most people need/want more.  How much? MORE!  

 

So, that is my deal. Makes sense to me.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

18 minutes ago, House Schubert said:

I believe that the world will be very different in the next 20-40 years.  I believe that we are sitting at the edge of an event horizon, where it is impossible to reasonably predict the future based on the past.   

I agree, but not due to currency changes.  The three epic changes in our kids generation are: 

Exhaustion of fossil fuels, Global Warming, & Exponential population growth

[I was hoping to make it thru while in retirement living like a hermit...but having a child forces me to care] 

[dennugsmello]

4 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

The three epic changes in our kids generation are: 

Exhaustion of fossil fuels, Global Warming, & Exponential population growth

Each of these doomsday scenarios can be argued against. I would contend the opposite change is happening. Especially the idea of exponential population growth. 

Crashing world economy = Less demand for fossil fuels. 

Grand Solar Minimum has begun = Possible long term global cooling. 

Birth rates are crashing across the globe, sperm counts plummeting and woman having children later and later = An ageing, declining world population. 

 

32 minutes ago, House Schubert said:

Our dads taught us to farm with a donkey pulled plough, but if we want to pass this farm down to our kids, we better be the first one in the county to get one of them new fangled tractors.

 

 

Sadly most dads did not teach us to farm with a donkey, raise chickens or have a nice garden. We are worthless husks of men whose lives depend on the logistical nightmare that is the world economy. Once major fault in that chain and 80% of the world is doomed. If people cannot see our fatal weakness after watching the Covid fiasco, I'd say there is no hope for them. If you are spending all your money "investing" in math problems and not preparing your family for what comes, I do not know what to say. At least if I blow all my money buying LEGO, maybe I could build a shelter from all the bricks. That string of characters on you "wallet" won't buy you a damn thing when it all comes crashing down. 

[keymomachine]

19 minutes ago, dennugsmello said:

At least if I blow all my money buying LEGO, maybe I could build a shelter from all the bricks.

The one sentence that unites us all on this forum. Huzzah!

[exracer327]

Interesting item for those in the USA or affected by IRS tax filing.  Crytpo is treated as "property" not "investments."  The following article lays out some rules which apply to crypto and not stocks or vice versa.  In short, selling crypto for a loss can currently be used to offset income.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/25/bitcoin-crash-opens-door-to-a-tax-loophole-for-investors.html?&qsearchterm=crypto irs

[Alpinemaps]

A new episode of Darknet Diaries podcast dropped today, discussing Kik.  Tangentially, there is mention of Kik's crypto, Kin.

Darknet Diaries:  https://darknetdiaries.com/episode/93/

More info about Kin:  https://medium.com/@tedlivingston/moving-forward-boldly-with-kin-ec6290a6453

[Cbenioff]

On 5/25/2021 at 10:15 AM, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I agree, but not due to currency changes.  The three epic changes in our kids generation are: 

Exhaustion of fossil fuels, Global Warming, & Exponential population growth

[I was hoping to make it thru while in retirement living like a hermit...but having a child forces me to care] 

None of these are a realistic concern at all for at least the next century and technology will handle all in the longer term. It's all about inflation right now. Invest in something... just not the dollar.

[Darth_Raichu]

This thing is gambling pure and simple.  Why go to casino and risk the virus when you can watch the charts go up and down (and place your bets) from the comfort of you pajamas 24 hours /day?

[Setheronie]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:42 AM, House Schubert said:

I have been looking for breakdowns like this for ETH... do you have any leads? 

Saw this and thought of you. <3
 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Setheronie

[dennugsmello]

Bitcoin: Crashes driven by big margin bets, new crypto banking (cnbc.com)

 

Bitcoin traders using up to 100-to-1 leverage

[bigboy61]

On 5/25/2021 at 12:04 PM, oneknightr said:

My old coworker used to tell me the don't catch the falling knife saying. He said to wait until it hits the floor, then pick it up. The problem is knowing when it hits the floor.

Well, that's easier to know now than it was 6 years ago. With On-Chain analytics, you can can get a good idea of when to buy near the floor (not necessarily the absolute bottom, but close enough). Granted, if we have hit the high this cycle, the On-Chain data would have been proven wrong (at least some of it anyway) so you can take that however you like ;).