Bitcoin and other forms of digital currency

[Guest TabbyBoy]

6 hours ago, cladner said:

US government shut down and bitcoin spikes $800  over the hour leading up to the shut down.  especially the last 10 minutes. 

the uncertainty may be beneficial to crypto prices.  especially if stock market starts to tank.

buckle-up kiddies  

Even though BTC is up 8% today, XRP is down 6%. It's difficult to tell if it's the US government shutdown or South Korea admitting that they can't regulate crypto easily or close exchanges down. Anything that's non-FUD will have a positive affect on crypto prices overall. Since I'd expect the $ to fall around now, it could be a good time to convert some BTC back to $ when it gets low and then trade back during the next crypto drop. I have strategically placed buy/sell orders all over the place in pairs to skim profit when the prices change by more than 10%.

When there's economic turmoil, gold and crypto seem to be the best bets. However, there may be a quick drop in crypto values once the US resumes.

Edited January 20, 2018 by TabbyBoy
dyxlesia

[Legojona]

8 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Even though BTC is up 8% today, XRP is down 6%. It's difficult to tell if it's the US government shutdown or South Korea admitting that they can't regulate crypto easily or close exchanges down. Anything that's non-FUD will have a positive affect on crypto prices overall. Since I'd expect the $ to fall around now, it could be a good time to convert some BTC back to $ when it gets low and then trade back during the next crypto drop. I have strategically placed buy/sell orders all over the place in pairs to skim profit when the prices change by more than 10%.

When there's economic turmoil, gold and crypto seem to be the best bets. However, there may be a quick drop in crypto values once the US resumes.

I think you guys are reading too much in short term news. Over the last three years, Bitcoin has followed a pretty consistent pattern of value increase, where it drops early in the year, rises untill early summer, drops again and then peaks at the end of the year. This is probably just because it is an inefficient market and relies mostly on the human psyche and not on the broader economic environment. To demonstrate I made a picture comparison.

I'm willing to back up this analysis with some crazy predictions for the upcoming year:

- Feb to April: A peak somewhere around 25k

- April to May: consolidation around 20k, maybe even drops to 15k

- May to July: Another rise to 35k or even 50

- July to september: Drops back to 25k

-  September to December: A run to $100k

This is surely not investment advice and I know it is likely I am wrong, but this is what I project and the reason I am only liquidating about 10% of my cryptos into fiat (making sure I have enough to live on if everything tanks). 

 

I do believe unexpected events can lead to incredible rises and incredible dumps, so if you later on shame me on this false prediction, I just did not see that one thing coming

[Guest TabbyBoy]

54 minutes ago, Legojona said:

I think you guys are reading too much in short term news. Over the last three years, Bitcoin has followed a pretty consistent pattern of value increase, where it drops early in the year, rises untill early summer, drops again and then peaks at the end of the year. This is probably just because it is an inefficient market and relies mostly on the human psyche and not on the broader economic environment. To demonstrate I made a picture comparison.

I'm willing to back up this analysis with some crazy predictions for the upcoming year:

- Feb to April: A peak somewhere around 25k

- April to May: consolidation around 20k, maybe even drops to 15k

- May to July: Another rise to 35k or even 50

- July to september: Drops back to 25k

-  September to December: A run to $100k

This is surely not investment advice and I know it is likely I am wrong, but this is what I project and the reason I am only liquidating about 10% of my cryptos into fiat (making sure I have enough to live on if everything tanks). 

 

I do believe unexpected events can lead to incredible rises and incredible dumps, so if you later on shame me on this false prediction, I just did not see that one thing coming

Don't worry, I don't assume anything in the cryptoverse to be investment advice however I do understand what you are saying. I kept notes all through 2017 and I do see slightly different patterns forming this year. If your theory runs true for 2018, it doesn't mean that 2019 will follow the same pattern as markets and attitudes constantly change as the cryptoverse evolves. The slowness and expense of BTC does make me a little nervous which is why I currently prefer the Ethereum blockchain and the smart contracts that run on it. I have a feeling that BTC and ETH will fight very hard for the stop spot this year. I don't hold any BTC at this time but I do have a trigger primed for when BTC/ETH reach 10:1 like they did last year. I'm now trying to find the next big thing by reading all White Papers thoroughly and researching their developers as much as possible. I will also try to find out where their companies are registered and even try to view their submitted accounts like you can do with Companies House in the UK.

If you're wrong (I think you could be right), can you send some ETH to me at 0x48af174013D498726C294Bfc4fD3f4b5E9f31148 in order to minimise my losses ;-)

I will now accept BTC, ETH, LTC and REP in payment for any LEGO sets that any of you buy off me. At least I won't suffer any chargebacks - LOL. Don't worry, the blockchain ledger will prove that any payment was sent so I can't say that it wasn't received.

[Pseudoty]

Planning an exit strategy which we all should have prior to getting in I see one issue for us in the USA using Coinbase GDAX  

I agree with most of what @Legojona stated but I am hoping for the next consolidation point to be around 8K thus providing one last opportunity to buy in big.  I think a lot of the sub-prime alt coins will tank this year as they are way overvalued by people looking to make 10x overnight. When and if this happens that money will have to go back into BTC/ETH most likely at the current 80/20 ratio further pushing up their market cap and BTC dominance. This and the possibility of ETF approval could allow BTC to hit 100K by the end of the year at which point I will be out. I am trying to avoid the use of the "B" word but that is what we have here and the need to get out before it bursts is a must. 

So if this all plays out, and it probably will not, I will be way over the 100K weekly withdrawal limit to USD cash and don't want to wait 6 weeks to try and get my money out while I watch BTC tank. Not trying to be negative just need to have a plan in place. Perhaps I am missing something. I watch a lot of the YouTubers and there is a ton of info on how to get in but I don't see much on how to get out. 

I also will take BTC for lego if anyone wants any. 

15gQiaF2ueJ3j2vJ9yAV24No9ppFQ49EgE

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, Pseudoty said:

Planning an exit strategy which we all should have prior to getting in I see one issue for us in the USA using Coinbase GDAX  

I agree with most of what @Legojona stated but I am hoping for the next consolidation point to be around 8K thus providing one last opportunity to buy in big.  I think a lot of the sub-prime alt coins will tank this year as they are way overvalued by people looking to make 10x overnight. When and if this happens that money will have to go back into BTC/ETH most likely at the current 80/20 ratio further pushing up their market cap and BTC dominance. This and the possibility of ETF approval could allow BTC to hit 100K by the end of the year at which point I will be out. I am trying to avoid the use of the "B" word but that is what we have here and the need to get out before it bursts is a must. 

So if this all plays out, and it probably will not, I will be way over the 100K weekly withdrawal limit to USD cash and don't want to wait 6 weeks to try and get my money out while I watch BTC tank. Not trying to be negative just need to have a plan in place. Perhaps I am missing something. I watch a lot of the YouTubers and there is a ton of info on how to get in but I don't see much on how to get out. 

I also will take BTC for lego if anyone wants any. 

15gQiaF2ueJ3j2vJ9yAV24No9ppFQ49EgE

I get round the withdrawal limits by using multiple trusted exchanges and only upload the crypto when I'm ready to cash in. With the buy/sell limits that I have now, I re-invest 50% of the cash I make and withdraw the rest. This drip-feeds my bank account nicely while I get on with other stuff. I've already had a meeting with my bank and they're OK with me deposting £ funds from a crypto exchange as long as I understand the laws about money laundering which is what I'm not doing. I still keep records via the exchange ledgers so that I can pay any capital gains tax as and when it's due. The HMRC is the scariest organisation I know and the Mafia and Triads are pussycats in comparison ;-)

Most of my dealings are in € rather than £ so I use an old offshore bank account that I've had since I was an expat.

Of course, there is a bubble forming of sorts as it's mostly driven by speculation rather than true purpose or functionality. Just keep your eyes peeled and ears to the ground as you'll probably only have hours before it all collapses. The good thing about the UK's timezone, is that we'll get the news from China/Korea ahead of the US. I'm also a light sleeper, middle-aged and always check the business news when I go for my 03:00 wee-wee ;-)

Edited January 20, 2018 by TabbyBoy

[Guest TabbyBoy]

@Val-E ... I've PM'd you my LEGO vs Cryptocurrency spreadsheet, please let me know what you think. Maybe we can post the results on the last day of each month to see how many wished that they'd bought "invisible money" instead of physical plastic. I'd add a webscraper VSA script for live crypto prices, but you won't be able to run it on a PC, only a Mac ;-)

I know who will win, but will it be 2x more, 5x more or 100x more profit?!

[bigboy61]

My exit strategy is to covert all Cryptos to ETH or LTC and move it to Coinbase where I will liquidate all of it. I only have a little over 2k invested so I shouldn't have to worry about the limit . Of course, I wouldn't complain if my portfolio hit 100k and I had to deal with the cash out.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, bigboy61 said:

My exit strategy is to covert all Cryptos to ETH or LTC and move it to Coinbase where I will liquidate all of it. I only have a little over 2k invested so I shouldn't have to worry about the limit . Of course, I wouldn't complain if my portfolio hit 100k and I had to deal with the cash out.

Similar here. But, I've got access to several exchanges and already have sell limits configured when targets are reached. I can also edit them quickly for an immediate transfer to EUR or USD.  I have well over £100K riding at the moment but, 90% of it is in cold wallets for safety. I only margin trade on exchanges with 10% of it so it's not the end of the World if an exchange goes AWOL. I'm happy with a few EUR in cash as daily profits. It would be noce if we had the security of bank to keep our crypto safe, but that'll be the end of volatility which is how some of us make money on the downturns.

BTW... You may see my replies to Val-E.... I've built a spreadsheet to compare the profits this year between 20x assorted retired LEGO sets and the top 20x cryptos on CoinMarketCap. This could go any way, but my money is on crypto to win by a parsec! I'm actually going to do this for real, but I need to wait for the last exchange to finish registering me. The value of the LEGO sets in question is €1700 and I've based the starting crypto quantities on today's prices to match the €1700 in LEGO sets so that it's a fair race.

My predicton:

LEGO: €1700 will turn into €2,008.11

Crypto: €1700 will turn into €39,958.47

What do you think?

[crayxlp]

Just curious..  your crypto line:

Crypto: €1700 will turn into €39,958.47

is that something like "a median" or a fund based on avg from several crypto titles at the moment (10 or more) or just a single coin? Because frankly, if that would be the first case (and current total crypto market value being cca 600 bln USD), you - suggesting it would pop up (in general based on your selection) to cca 20x more.. that would get us to 12.000 bln market and that is more than the national debt of USA.. 

[bigboy61]

47 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Similar here. But, I've got access to several exchanges and already have sell limits configured when targets are reached. I can also edit them quickly for an immediate transfer to EUR or USD.  I have well over £100K riding at the moment but, 90% of it is in cold wallets for safety. I only margin trade on exchanges with 10% of it so it's not the end of the World if an exchange goes AWOL. I'm happy with a few EUR in cash as daily profits. It would be noce if we had the security of bank to keep our crypto safe, but that'll be the end of volatility which is how some of us make money on the downturns.

BTW... You may see my replies to Val-E.... I've built a spreadsheet to compare the profits this year between 20x assorted retired LEGO sets and the top 20x cryptos on CoinMarketCap. This could go any way, but my money is on crypto to win by a parsec! I'm actually going to do this for real, but I need to wait for the last exchange to finish registering me. The value of the LEGO sets in question is €1700 and I've based the starting crypto quantities on today's prices to match the €1700 in LEGO sets so that it's a fair race.

My predicton:

LEGO: €1700 will turn into €2,008.11

Crypto: €1700 will turn into €39,958.47

What do you think?

I think the Lego amount is pretty accurate. You might be able to squeeze €50-100 more out of it. However, you have to take into consideration the time and money it takes to ship the Lego sets as well as the risk of some fruitcake returning it. Additionally, you have to consider the high fees for liquidating the Lego sets. On the plus side, rarely will the Lego set not sell for at least RRP so you will always have something to walk away with.

 

As far as the crypto coins go, that amount seems very optimistic. However, as we all know, the crypto market is insane and that amount could end up being really small. I would probably be more conservative and go with €10,000 (give or take some) as the final amount. That's over a 5X ROI. As with Lego, there are caveats to crypto. Namely the market crashing and losing 80% of your portfolio in a matter of hours/days. Also, it takes a lot of time to find really solid projects. On the flip side, there is the ability to easily liquidate you crypto holdings and cash out quickly. Additionally, the fees will be minimal compared to the 10%+ that online markets charge for selling Lego sets. 

 

I am siding with Tabby and crypto. I bailed out of Lego with the Apollo rocket. I have a little over $1k invested in various Lego sets and kind of regret it. Nearly all of my sets are above RRP, but with the fees and stuff, I could lose a little. I have only been invested in crypto for about a month and I have already seen around 70-100% ROI on certain coins. Much superior to Lego IMHO. 

Edited January 21, 2018 by bigboy61

[Guest TabbyBoy]

12 hours ago, crayxlp said:

Just curious..  your crypto line:

Crypto: €1700 will turn into €39,958.47

is that something like "a median" or a fund based on avg from several crypto titles at the moment (10 or more) or just a single coin? Because frankly, if that would be the first case (and current total crypto market value being cca 600 bln USD), you - suggesting it would pop up (in general based on your selection) to cca 20x more.. that would get us to 12.000 bln market and that is more than the national debt of USA.. 

When I'm guessing (and it is a guess) that €1.7K of crypto will turn into nearly €40K, I mean that there's probably 2 "gems" in there that could skyrocket 250x or more this year and also ETH and XRP are expected to grow massively too. I wouldn't be surprised if €40K was way out, could be €80K or..... just €170 ;-)

EDIT: Nearly 15hrs after starting the spreadsheet, crypto is down by €125.71 - LOL.

@Val-E ... If I do the crypto prices and you do the LEGO prices (net after all selling expenses) and pass them to me, I will attach a screenshot the spreadsheet in this thread at the start of FEB using the end prices of 31JAN on WorldCoinIndex. My gut feeling is that LEGO will be about 5% down and crypto 12% up. Since Chinese New Year is on 16FEB, this is likely to slow down the crypto markets and crypto could drop 5%. Do you think it's worth having a competition to see who gets the closest with LEGO and crypto each month? I will personally give the "winner" who's closest to crypto 0.01 ETH  or 10 XRP at the end of DEC. It's not a lot, but it could be ;-)

You may see that there's a new top 20 in crypto, but this is because the volatility of prices changes the market cap postion all the time. We'll go with the top 20 that was entered yesterday, OK? We may even see some fall out of the market completely. Sh1t or bust as they say!

Edited January 21, 2018 by TabbyBoy

[Guest TabbyBoy]

The spreadsheet will look something like the one below. All we have to do is place the new prices in the shaded columns.

[Val-E]

I´ll have a look later. Something big has come up!

[crayxlp]

In case anybody is interested:

Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393217301666

 

Abstract

To its proponents, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin offers the potential to disrupt payment systems and traditional currencies. It has also been subject to security breaches and wild price fluctuations. This paper identifies and analyzes the impact of suspicious trading activity on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange, in which approximately 600,000 bitcoins (BTC) valued at $188 million were fraudulently acquired. During both periods, the USD-BTC exchange rate rose by an average of four percent on days when suspicious trades took place, compared to a slight decline on days without suspicious activity. Based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks, the paper demonstrates that the suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the USD-BTC exchange rate in late 2013, when the rate jumped from around $150 to more than $1,000 in two months.

 

[tjenson]

Wow, just read through 5 years of BP opinions. Note to self, never ever ever take cryptocurrency advice from BP mods or Lego "investor" maximilists. They got lucky once but are stuck in time. Doh.

[tjenson]

Legojona on the other hand, this guy was way ahead of the curve. Good job.

[bigboy61]

18 minutes ago, tjenson said:

Wow, just read through 5 years of BP opinions. Note to self, never ever ever take cryptocurrency advice from BP mods or Lego "investor" maximilists. They got lucky once but are stuck in time. Doh.

Never take crypto advice from anyone except yourself. Rule number 1. If all you do is go what others say, you are preparing yourself for some major disappointment. None of us know how things are going to shake out with the crypto market. Tomorrow everything could tank or rocket 40%. No one knows. The best any of us can do is guess and put our money where our mouth is  .

Edited January 22, 2018 by bigboy61

[tjenson]

1 minute ago, bigboy61 said:

Never take crypto advice from anyone except yourself. Rule number 1 for any new crypto investor. None of us know how things are going to shake out with the crypto market. Tomorrow everything could tank or rocket 40%. No one knows. The best any of us can do is guess and put our money where our mouth is  .

Correct. Looking back, the amount of misinformation in this thread is pretty terrible. You can see a lot of people speaking about the space that are just regurgitating what they've heard and clearly never read into it for themselves. Bad mods, bad!

[TANV]

Step 1 of Crypto Investing: Invest what you can afford to invest!

Step 2 of Crypto Investing: Don't listen to Internet forums!

Step 3 of Crypto Investing: PROFIT????

[Phil B]

So I read this article about investing in cryptos and I want to start too. I can borrow $10k on a low APR credit card, what cryptos should I buy so I can pay it all off and retire with the profits next year?

[bigboy61]

9 minutes ago, Phil B said:

So I read this article about investing in cryptos and I want to start too. I can borrow $10k on a low APR credit card, what cryptos should I buy so I can pay it all off and retire with the profits next year?

Dogecoin! lol....

 

32 minutes ago, tjenson said:

Correct. Looking back, the amount of misinformation in this thread is pretty terrible. You can see a lot of people speaking about the space that are just regurgitating what they've heard and clearly never read into it for themselves. Bad mods, bad!

For what it's worth, the mods are entitled to their opinions too. They are free to share their opinions just like us. They are here to keep topics on track (among other behind-the-scenes things). 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 hours ago, Phil B said:

So I read this article about investing in cryptos and I want to start too. I can borrow $10k on a low APR credit card, what cryptos should I buy so I can pay it all off and retire with the profits next year?

Don't borrow, it's a bad idea. Can you pay off your credit card if you lost $10K? The risks are just as high as the rewards.

[Phil B]

10 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Don't borrow, it's a bad idea. Can you pay off your credit card if you lost $10K? The risks are just as high as the rewards.

W00t! I trolled Tabby, the master troller of HKUD

[cladner]

19 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Don't borrow, it's a bad idea. Can you pay off your credit card if you lost $10K? The risks are just as high as the rewards.

i think your sarcasm detector isn't working or the battery is dead.

[Jeff Mack]

3 hours ago, tjenson said:

Correct. Looking back, the amount of misinformation in this thread is pretty terrible. You can see a lot of people speaking about the space that are just regurgitating what they've heard and clearly never read into it for themselves. Bad mods, bad!

To me, this entire thread is crap, but if people are interested in talking about it, it is a hot topic today.  I would recommend that no one takes any advice from anything in this thread. Talk about it, go nuts.