10236 - UCS: Ewok Village

[blocp13]

4 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

I'll take IR over EV any day, IR has only been retired for few weeks and already up 40% compared to RRP, it's selling easily for £135 - 140 on ebay (RRP £100). That is pretty good for a set to increase that much in such a short time when lego investing is considered dead.

Maybe there will be a late surge for IR if Smyths dump 1200+ sets, but at least they will sell out as IR is a fast seller. In all of the Smyth sales, IR alongside ghostbuster firehouse and Slave 1 where the first ones to sell out. There is alot of demand for IR, cannot say the same for EV. 

Yes there will be people who want to buy EV, too complete their UCS collection or whatever, but I don't see it performing nowhere near as good as say Slave 1 or IR.

Everywhere is sold out of IR at retail, there are only a handful of Smyths store and random argos stores that have stock left. If they come back it will put a small blip on IR performance but no doubt it will bounce right back up.

It has constantly been one of the top performers on amazon charts aswell.

sorry i ment 1200 ev's i'll edit post, my bad (forum rookie)

yep i'm suprised at the increase so quick, on ir might have something to do with christmas?

where can I find the amazon charts?

[Val-E]

1200? I rest my case then. Unless they put them down to 11 quid to tempt Tabby we are screwed.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

1200? I rest my case then. Unless they put them down to 11 quid to tempt Tabby we are screwed.

Not me as I'm smart enough to NOT buy any EV even when I saw a mis-typed one on eBay a while back attract no bdders with a £149.99 start. I think UCS completionists are the only market for this heap of brown bricks. I admit, I bought a Maze only to complete Cuusoo/Ideas and looking out for a Shinkai Sub now for <£200.

[Ciglione]

8 hours ago, blocp13 said:

sorry i ment 1200 ev's i'll edit post, my bad (forum rookie)

yep i'm suprised at the increase so quick, on ir might have something to do with christmas?

where can I find the amazon charts?

Really? If that is to be true that is a disaster.  

 

[Anomander]

Val--E called it when he said EV is this year's Tumbler. 

It will take a few more repeat post-EOL UCS dogs before the Lemmings will stop following each other over the cliff en mass into dead money canyon.

[Val-E]

I hope I am wrong, mind.

[tractorboy]

Tumbler still sells on ebay EU almost daily. EV will get nowhere near that kind of demand.

EV will be more like Sea Cow imho.

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, tractorboy said:

Tumbler still sells on ebay EU almost daily. EV will get nowhere near that kind of demand.

EV will be more like Sea Cow imho.

Sea Cow got a good post EOL boost, though.

I think EV will be like Chima.

[cladner]

31 minutes ago, Anomander said:

Val--E called it when he said EV is this year's Tumbler. 

It will take a few more repeat post-EOL UCS dogs before the Lemmings will stop following each other over the cliff en mass into dead money canyon.

it's worse than this years tumbler.  tumbler had a short life.  EV has been kicking around since 2013.  there are likely many thousands more EV out there then there are Tumblers.  that's the same reason why Tumbler is beating red 5.  Also using the Tumbler comparison as a knock on the set confuses me - are you saying the Tumbler is a dud?   Tumbler is selling for $344 - 1.9 times my buy in right now on amazon which is about the break even point for fees and shipping etc .  In 12-16 months, I should be able to double money after fees etc.  The Tumbler should end up performing even better than the GE which is a set I think is doing pretty well.  Red5 on the other hand is a laggard.  EV will also probably lag.  I have 7 so hopefully i am wrong and it  explodes out of the gate.

Edited November 26, 2016 by cladner

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, cladner said:

it's worse than this years tumbler.  tumbler had a short life.  EV has been kicking around since 2013.  there are many thousands more EV out there then there are Tumblers.  that's the same reason why Tumbler is beating red 5.  Also using the Tumbler comparison as a knock on the set confuses me - are you saying the Tumbler is a dud?   Tumbler is selling for $344 - 1.9 times my buy in right now on amazon which is about the break even point for fees and shipping etc .  In 12-16 months, I should be able to double money after fees etc.  The Tumbler should end up performing even better than the GE which is a set I think is doing pretty well.  Red5 on the other hand is a laggard.  This set will also probably lag.  I have 7 so hopefully i am wrong and it  explodes out of the gate.

Oversupply has killed Tumbler in Europe same as red5 in US.

[Frank Brickowski]

5 minutes ago, cladner said:

it's worse than this years tumbler.  tumbler had a short life.  EV has been kicking around since 2013.  there are many thousands more EV out there then there are Tumblers.  that's the same reason why Tumbler is beating red 5.  Also using the Tumbler comparison as a knock on the set confuses me - are you saying the Tumbler is a dud?   Tumbler is selling for $344 - 1.9 times my buy in right now on amazon which is about the break even point for fees and shipping etc .  In 12-16 months, I should be able to double money after fees etc.  The Tumbler should end up performing even better than the GE which is a set I think is doing pretty well.  Red5 on the other hand is a laggard.  This set will also probably lag.  I have 7 so hopefully i am wrong and it  explodes out of the gate.

Long-term investors keep being relaxed as Tumbler and EV will NEVER be remade again. So while others live in fear of remakes and have sleepless nights all year long, EV and Tumbler owners (with enough storage space) can just lock their store rooms, throw the key away and forget about them as long as they want while their portfolio values will keep rising and never drop because they didn't pay attention to what is being released next.

Edited November 26, 2016 by Frank Brickowski

[Anomander]

3 minutes ago, cladner said:

it's worse than this years tumbler.  tumbler had a short life.  EV has been kicking around since 2013.  there are many thousands more EV out there then there are Tumblers.  that's the same reason why Tumbler is beating red 5.  Also using the Tumbler comparison as a knock on the set confuses me - are you saying the Tumbler is a dud?   Tumbler is selling for $344 - 1.9 times my buy in right now on amazon which is about the break even point for fees and shipping etc .  In 12-16 months, I should be able to double money after fees etc.  The Tumbler should end up performing even better than the GE which is a set I think is doing pretty well.  Red5 on the other hand is a laggard.  This set will also probably lag.  I have 7 so hopefully i am wrong and it  explodes out of the gate.

You didn't have Smyths pumping out Tumblers long after retiremant in the US like we had in Europe. . This also coincided with a glut of internet reading, Lego=gold-why-not-me-too, excited entrepeneurs having a go following the old model - cool flagship sets which were previous sure things.

On the national sites (like Craigslist, but for  the whole of Ireland) people are struggling to sell them for €220. Some even selling for less than RRP.

Now Smyths in UK alone have 1200 in the warehouse. Smyths Ireland have a stockpile too you can bet. This one will follow the same pattern here. The US might be different of course, but I would hold my breath after R5, R2D2 ect. Pet Shop will experience this oversupply stunting growth even more so.

 

[Furious_george]

If it's all doom and gloom then, why did you all buy it?

[Anomander]

10 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Long-term investors keep being relaxed as Tumbler and EV will NEVER be remade again. So while others live in fear of remakes and have sleepless nights all year long, EV and Tumbler owners (with enough storage space) can just lock their store rooms, throw the key away and forget about them as long as they want while their portfolio values will keep rising and never drop because they didn't pay attention to what is being released next.

Long-term for sure they'll do well, but not 10179 well, or even SSD well. A lot of new people are in it for the long-term-hold too. What's considered a long term hold will be 5-6 years +. The CARG long-term won't be as profitable as the QFLL bargain hunters or medium termers that bought-in low.

In my opinion only, of course.

[exciter1]

Oversupply has killed Tumbler in Europe same as red5 in US.

...and undercutters

[Anomander]

2 minutes ago, Furious_george said:

If it's all doom and gloom then, why did you all buy it?

Because I was a Lemming.

[Furious_george]

2 minutes ago, Anomander said:

Because I was a Lemming.

Can't argue with honesty.

[Anomander]

2 minutes ago, Furious_george said:

Can't argue with honesty.

In all honesty it's not all bad news. Buying at good discounts is the only way to go with these to insure against stagnant growth which is the new pattern emerging.

 

RRP buy-in at EOL is no longer a smart move.

[Furious_george]

1 minute ago, Anomander said:

In all honesty it's not all bad news. Buying at good discounts is the only way to go with these to insure against stagnant growth which is the new pattern emerging.

 

RRP buy-in at EOL is no longer a smart move.

It's only the new pattern if you follow the pattern. 

[Ciglione]

Just now, Furious_george said:

It's only the new pattern if you follow the pattern. 

What choice do you have?

It is following the pattern or quit.

[kurnitb]

Just now, Ciglione said:

What choice do you have?

It is following the pattern or quit.

One more option though, hold it for a lonnnnnggg longgg time,

[Furious_george]

Just now, Ciglione said:

What choice do you have?

It is following the pattern or quit.

Knit one IR, pearl two IST.  

[tractorboy]

7 minutes ago, Furious_george said:

If it's all doom and gloom then, why did you all buy it?

I haven't bought a single SW exclusive since R5.

[Ciglione]

Just now, kurnitb said:

One more option though, hold it for a lonnnnnggg longgg time,

Good luck with that. 

If I would have gotten one dollar each time people clean out their stashes of poor performing sets cause they are tired looking at them I would have become rich.

[kurnitb]

Just now, tractorboy said:

I haven't bought a single SW exclusive since R5.

Not even AoH, come on, surely you don't want to miss out on the ultimate Hoth set. :))