EOL vs. When to buy a set - What's all the fuss about?

[Frank Brickowski]

Hi everyone!

What I DO get is: EOL dates are important for investors because that is when the sets they bought as investments are going to start rising in value significantly. OK, understood.

What I do NOT get is: Why is there such a craze about the EOL in connection to the time of buying and the question "Should I buy set X now because soon of the EOL it will be sold out everywhere"?

My question is: Why don't people just look at all the sets they are interested in from when they are released - and just buy them at some time for the lowest price (imaginable). Meaning: The max discount you can probably ever get is 50%, correct me if I'm wrong. So, anything between 30-50% should be a very good to great deal. But that said, why are people waiting until EOL and why are they going crazy so much about it, instead oy just buying sets when they are cheapest? From what I have experienced so far, the time before (a supposed) EOL is not really the time of the biggest discounts, rather prices are rising again already at this time. If I see a set for 50 % off, I buy it and from then I don't care about EOL at all anymore.

Do I miss something completely here? Is it because people have a certain budget, so they cannot buy anything at any time? Is it about storage capacity at home? (Or is it just another situation in the US compared to what I know from Europe?) What is it about the EOL vs. When to buy a set that I misunderstand? Thanks for your comments!

[stephen_rockefeller]

For me....it a matter of storage space. The closer I can get a set to EOL, the less time it has to sit in my house before I can turn a decent profit. Others probably have different answers, but this is mine.

[jaisonline]

For me....it a matter of storage space. The closer I can get a set to EOL, the less time it has to sit in my house before I can turn a decent profit. Others probably have different answers, but this is mine.

ditto here. i have ZERO space and really need sets to go EOL for selling.

[folmarm]

I agree with your logic. It is still a huge deal when EOL is because most of have limitations: money and space being the two biggest. If I buy a set and have to wait two years or more until it EOLs then my limited money and space is tied up into that set for at least that long. If, on the other hand, I buy a set a month before it EOLs and am able to flip it for a profit that same year's Christmas buying season I can go out and buy different sets that are near EOL and flip them the next Christmas. I may be able to flip two or three times in the same amount of time that it would have taken to wait for the other set to EOL. Sometimes buying a solid set right before EOL at no discount is better then buying something 30% off two years from EOL. I prefer a mix of the two: buy sets when they are a deal regardless of EOL but also focus on sets that are most likely EOLing soon and not worrying about discounts quite so much (best is when you can get a clearance deal because the set is being EOLd).

[TheOrcKing]

Three words: Storage, money, and time.

Buying closer to date of discontinuation allows less time needed for:

-earning back a percentage

-tying up money

-storage being used

A very, very good discount would be one exception to the rule but we are talking about a darn good sale here.

[Grolim]

Pretty much agree with the reasons above. Money, storage, and possibility of clearance deals near or after EOL. As an example, say you bought a set today for $100 and in 2 years time it goes EOL, 1 year after that you sell it for double, so $200. For your 3 year investment you just made an average annual profit of 33%, great. But if you waited and bought it right at EOL time, you've made the same profit in 1 year so 100% annual return. It's all about making best use of your limited investment capital. You want that money to be working for you as much as possible. Various deals and sales throw a curveball in the mix so it's not just a straightforward "wait to EOL then buy" decision.

[emes]

My question is: Why don't people just look at all the sets they are interested in from when they are released - and just buy them at some time for the lowest price (imaginable). Meaning: The max discount you can probably ever get is 50%, correct me if I'm wrong. So, anything between 30-50% should be a very good to great deal. But that said, why are people waiting until EOL and why are they going crazy so much about it, instead oy just buying sets when they are cheapest? From what I have experienced so far, the time before (a supposed) EOL is not really the time of the biggest discounts, rather prices are rising again already at this time. If I see a set for 50 % off, I buy it and from then I don't care about EOL at all anymore

While this sounds great in theory, a couple of things come to mind. First, people tend behave in ways that maximizes personal advantage, and it's likely that while a set is still on shelves and not near EOL their personal advantage is maximized by allocating funds differently. For example, by investing in other sets that are currently in their EOL phase. Second, when a set is at it's lowest price there's really no way to know that price is the lowest possible price. I agree with the other responses as well...we all have to maximize storage space, etc... in order to get the best possible return.

In fact, if people did what you're saying here, then there likely wouldn't be much of a secondary market, because their behavior would be completely rational, meaning they would understand exactly the right time, place, and sweet spot to maximize their personal advantage. In other words they'd choose alternatives over retired sets that could be had at a premium.

[StarCityBrickCompany]

Hi everyone!

What I DO get is: EOL dates are important for investors because that is when the sets they bought as investments are going to start rising in value significantly. OK, understood.

What I do NOT get is: Why is there such a craze about the EOL in connection to the time of buying and the question "Should I buy set X now because soon of the EOL it will be sold out everywhere"?

Do I miss something completely here? Is it because people have a certain budget, so they cannot buy anything at any time? Is it about storage capacity at home? (Or is it just another situation in the US compared to what I know from Europe?) What is it about the EOL vs. When to buy a set that I misunderstand? Thanks for your comments!

Your idea is correct - other than it being your last chance to get a set before it goes EOL, it doesn't need to be all that important.

As far as the reasons, budget, storage, & general impatience are the reasons.

This was not always the case - Up until recently someone who invested in Lego planned on putting the sets away until the values justified selling them. Today there are many new buyers that are really Lego flippers, not investors. If they can buy & sell a set to make even a small profit, they will do it. But there are also some people that hold on to sets for far too long before selling (if ever).

I think that you need to be flexible on when you decide to sell. I think immediately flipping an EOL set for a small gain is a bit crazy (but if the short term gain is significant, you should sell), but you also don't need to wait forever to get the very top price.

[kerrmando]

I fall into the far too long category... I hate selling sealed sets.. I'll sell anything else but sealed is like my little baby... unless its friends or chima

[comicblast]

Hi everyone!

What I DO get is: EOL dates are important for investors because that is when the sets they bought as investments are going to start rising in value significantly. OK, understood.

What I do NOT get is: Why is there such a craze about the EOL in connection to the time of buying and the question "Should I buy set X now because soon of the EOL it will be sold out everywhere"?

My question is: Why don't people just look at all the sets they are interested in from when they are released - and just buy them at some time for the lowest price (imaginable). Meaning: The max discount you can probably ever get is 50%, correct me if I'm wrong. So, anything between 30-50% should be a very good to great deal. But that said, why are people waiting until EOL and why are they going crazy so much about it, instead oy just buying sets when they are cheapest? From what I have experienced so far, the time before (a supposed) EOL is not really the time of the biggest discounts, rather prices are rising again already at this time. If I see a set for 50 % off, I buy it and from then I don't care about EOL at all anymore.

Do I miss something completely here? Is it because people have a certain budget, so they cannot buy anything at any time? Is it about storage capacity at home? (Or is it just another situation in the US compared to what I know from Europe?) What is it about the EOL vs. When to buy a set that I misunderstand? Thanks for your comments!

First of all, welcome to BrickPicker. First post!

That is a very interesting question. I believe that most of the seasoned investors on BrickPicker just buy low, no matter where in the running time of the set it is. For some more rookie investors, they have less space, and money, so we can't tie up a huge amount of cash in a set if we have to hold onto it for 1-2 years right when it comes out. Also when a set is close to EOL, it tends to be on clearance at local stores, so you can sometimes find them cheap there.

[sadowsk1]

Hi everyone!

What I DO get is: EOL dates are important for investors because that is when the sets they bought as investments are going to start rising in value significantly. OK, understood.

What I do NOT get is: Why is there such a craze about the EOL in connection to the time of buying and the question "Should I buy set X now because soon of the EOL it will be sold out everywhere"?

My question is: Why don't people just look at all the sets they are interested in from when they are released - and just buy them at some time for the lowest price (imaginable). Meaning: The max discount you can probably ever get is 50%, correct me if I'm wrong. So, anything between 30-50% should be a very good to great deal. But that said, why are people waiting until EOL and why are they going crazy so much about it, instead oy just buying sets when they are cheapest? From what I have experienced so far, the time before (a supposed) EOL is not really the time of the biggest discounts, rather prices are rising again already at this time. If I see a set for 50 % off, I buy it and from then I don't care about EOL at all anymore.

Do I miss something completely here? Is it because people have a certain budget, so they cannot buy anything at any time? Is it about storage capacity at home? (Or is it just another situation in the US compared to what I know from Europe?) What is it about the EOL vs. When to buy a set that I misunderstand? Thanks for your comments!

I didn't know that many people didn't do that. I don't suffer from storage space or other issues. If I see a set I want or think will sell better and see it on sale for what I think is the cheapest price I buy it. I imagine other people that don't do this have justified reasons why not to buy a set when it is cheapest to maximize their return.

[Dez1958]

Great discussion. I think the better discussion is determining the sets that will appreciate the most after retirement. Do I want to nail a couple of themes and be well read on those themes? Or do I want to buy everything that's 50% off? I prefer the former, it's more fun. But the later is more profitable.

[LowestFormOfWit]

I buy anything that is over 60% off, because I can't think of a single set that you could possibly lose money on at that price, even in the most dire of situations.

[Spartikis]

If there is a great discount i will buy way before EOL, otherwise i prefer to wait for it to be retired, then i just buy of ebay, amazon or similar websites for slightly under or at retail.

[Alcarin]

If there is a great discount i will buy way before EOL, otherwise i prefer to wait for it to be retired, then i just buy of ebay, amazon or similar websites for slightly under or at retail.

as great discount he means 30% or more ;)

[chinothegeeko]

With all the new investors it seems like sets are disappearing much faster while trying to wait for a bigger discount.

[JoshTX]

It's all about finding that "sweet spot" that Emes mentioned. Buy low, sell high. The frenzy that is associated with that is that the sweet spot window of opportunity is often very small and limited. The past few weeks, the Monster Fighters theme has dominated this forum's discussion. We basically just went through a sweet spot with that theme. It finally reduced to clearance prices that were low enough to allow people to feel like they needed to get what was left out there, so there was a frenzy and if you didn't get what you wanted you probably missed the boat. Those who missed that short window will fuss, while others flip or hold. Meanwhile the sets are now gone from stores.

[Alcarin]

With all the new investors it seems like sets are disappearing much faster while trying to wait for a bigger discount.

 

 

Nah how is that possible... Ok maybe in US but here in Europe I see City MINE still on shelves!

 

blame the price!

[sadowsk1]

With all the new investors it seems like sets are disappearing much faster while trying to wait for a bigger discount.

I agree to this.  I think more people are added to the Lego investment game daily than there are people that are selling their way out of it.