The Lone Ranger 2013

[Quacs]

I have a handful of Constitution Trains and Stagecoaches with a few Commanche Camps and Colby City sets sprinkled in.  Oh, and then there are the Cavalry builder pancakes from TRU that I am hoping will turn into hotcakes.  Most of these were near the 50% off mark so I'm going to probably hold them into 2015 and see what happens.

Agreed - these are holds until at least 2015.

[redcell]

The Lone Ranger sets seem to have exited the stores slowly and silently. But the values are still at the same point as months ago. Except for the train. I invested quite alot in them and am wondering if I should dump the smaller sets but keep 2 copies of each just in case. Any thoughts here?

 

It depends on how much you paid for them.  If you got the Cavalry Builders for $10 or less, I'd keep those and sell them in a year.  If you got the Stagecoachs for less than $20, I'd hold for a year and then sell.  If you got the train for $50-$60, I'd hold for a year and then sell.  If you got Commanche Camp around $10, I'd hold that for a year and then sell.  Everything else (including any of the sets listed above bought at higher prices) I would dump immediately...they may appreciate to the point where you'll make some profit, but that money will work better for you elsewhere over the next year.

[Ciglione]

It depends on how much you paid for them.  If you got the Cavalry Builders for $10 or less, I'd keep those and sell them in a year.  If you got the Stagecoachs for less than $20, I'd hold for a year and then sell.  If you got the train for $50-$60, I'd hold for a year and then sell.  If you got Commanche Camp around $10, I'd hold that for a year and then sell.  Everything else (including any of the sets listed above bought at higher prices) I would dump immediately...they may appreciate to the point where you'll make some profit, but that money will work better for you elsewhere over the next year.

 

Unfortunately in Europe those prices do not exist. Not even with Lone Ranger. I bought them really cheap for European standards. Lets keep it that way. I will overthink what people wrote here and hopefully come to a conclusion.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I have no thoughts whatsoever on this bombed theme.  Apart from in the UK, prices have never been low enough just to buy for parts.

[minicoopers11]

Stagecoach is gaining nicely - it has sold for $45 (shipped) on eBay recently, and will continue to rise, albeit slowly.

The Cavalry builder battle pack has also gone up nicely, selling for nearly double MSRP now (from $12.99 MSRP).

Well, shoot. Maybe I'll hold off on a MOC of the 54th Massachusetts using 40 of these sets...

[Alcarin]

Unfortunately in Europe those prices do not exist. Not even with Lone Ranger. I bought them really cheap for European standards. Lets keep it that way. I will overthink what people wrote here and hopefully come to a conclusion.

 

Let me evaluate in EU prices...

 

Cavalry for 8

[vincevaughn]

Keep the trains dump the rest. Not saying they will never increase but there are better places to put the money.

I would amend that to keep the Trains, stagecoaches and calvary builders. That is my humble opinion at least.

[redcell]

I would amend that to keep the Trains, stagecoaches and calvary builders. That is my humble opinion at least.

 

Regardless, I wouldn't hold any of these sets longer than another year.  They may continue to appreciate over time, but given the glacial pace of their appreciation over the last year, they are unlikely to climb too highly before settling back down.

[fuzzy_bricks]

Regardless, I wouldn't hold any of these sets longer than another year.  They may continue to appreciate over time, but given the glacial pace of their appreciation over the last year, they are unlikely to climb too highly before settling back down.

While I agree with your sentiment, these haven't been retired for a whole year yet, and the trains had been available at Target until recently.

[TheDarkness]

Seriously can't get enough of this picture right now!

 

[lodibricks]

They will ultimately double in value the month after we decide to sell them. That's my luck anyway.

I think we all agree the trains are the keepers, but I also looked at that the Colby City & Silver Mine and thought "man those look fun, to build or for kids to play with." Oh well, we shall see.

[Bernard74]

It depends on how much you paid for them. If you got the Cavalry Builders for $10 or less, I'd keep those and sell them in a year. If you got the Stagecoachs for less than $20, I'd hold for a year and then sell. If you got the train for $50-$60, I'd hold for a year and then sell. If you got Commanche Camp around $10, I'd hold that for a year and then sell. Everything else (including any of the sets listed above bought at higher prices) I would dump immediately...they may appreciate to the point where you'll make some profit, but that money will work better for you elsewhere over the next year.

What he paid for them isn't really relevant for the question what to do with them now that he has them. Selling or keeping just depends on the price he would get for them now vs. the price in the future.

Option 1: hang on to them for a couple of years.

Option 2: sell them at current value and invest in other sets.

Which option is better depends on the growth rate that is to be expected with option nr 1 vs. the growth rate he would have with the sets he would pick with option nr. 2. Also factoring in that you would first lose a little money on ebay fees.

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[biniou]

I think nowadays kids are not fond of Western stuff.

Western toys are bought by parents who are nostalgic in toys they played with (or just fans of western movies), but in the last 10/15 years as far as I can remember I never saw a kid playing with a cowboy hat and a gun in a toy shop (they play with lightsabers, throw shurikens and wear superheroes/robots disguise).

You only see that in toy story... and I think Woody is one of the rare popular cowboy (my 3 years old niece loves him) because he comes from an animated movie.

 

Lone ranger sets are great but the theme itself lacks of popularity (IMO it's old-fashioned and certainly kids think the same way) and the movie didn't help (boring movie, except the final scene on both trains which is amazing ).

 

Maybe it'll change in the incoming years but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Ciglione]

I think nowadays kids are not fond of Western stuff.

Western toys are bought by parents who are nostalgic in toys they played with (or just fans of western movies), but in the last 10/15 years as far as I can remember I never saw a kid playing with a cowboy hat and a gun in a toy shop (they play with lightsabers, throw shurikens and wear superheroes/robots disguise).

You only see that in toy story... and I think Woody is one of the rare popular cowboy (my 3 years old niece loves him) because he comes from an animated movie.

 

Lone ranger sets are great but the theme itself lacks of popularity (IMO it's old-fashioned and certainly kids think the same way) and the movie didn't help (boring movie, except the final scene on both trains which is amazing ).

 

Maybe it'll change in the incoming years but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

I must agree with you Biniou. Also keep in mind that the last 10 years I do not remember any good western movies coming out. The good days when Clint Eastwood and company were in those movies are long gone. Maybe a (quality) western blockbuster premiering could help us. It might have a positive effect on the lone ranger sets.

[biniou]

Maybe a (quality) western blockbuster premiering could help us. It might have a positive effect on the lone ranger sets.

Yeah maybe, but for now a western movie is so much little ensured to be a success that it's necessary to add some aliens or a rapper with gadget and robots...

 

 

Wild wild west

 

 

A very good western movie ? Yes it does exist ! Nearly a masterpiece ! It's Django Unchained but... it's an adult movie... nothing to put kids interest in western legos...

[Ciglione]

Well... maybe they have to air "Back to the Future III" on television more often. That maybe will help this theme. Ha!

 

There used to be so nice western movies and series like: How the west was won, Once upon a time in the west, etc. A shame that is over now.

[@rtisan]

Cowboys and Aliens was horrible, I don`t know if it was possible to be made any worse, honestly. Then Hollywood followed up with Lone Ranger in terms of big budget westerns and well, we all know how that one went over. It`s been years since there has been any westerns that could drive up demand for toys, it`s a shame the theme (lone ranger) is pretty good overall. Who doesn`t love seeing a layout with a town and a train/stagecoach? Brings back lots of memories to reenact those scenes. Oh well, here`s to the future, maybe something decent will spark interest in the genre again. 

[ZULU]

This is a nice topic which has also created some uncertainty in my mind.

My thought process for the moment goes as such:

 

These sets has been discounted heavily and even then they didn't get bought easy from the shelves. A clear indication that kids have other Lego priorities and the lego investors were very negative on the theme. 

 

Still, I have invested in this range and will wait and see depending on the set because:

 

1/ the cavalry & comanche camp are easy sellers for parents who want to give their boy a cheap lego set with lots of playability and minifids and will be needed to make MOC army and indian town set-ups

 

2/ The range was killed quickly by the community and TLG. Therefore there shouldn't be too much supply to be absorbed. If there was a new wave of Western interest, some stock of cowboys would come handy

 

3/ The price points are low: you get the cheapest train, the cheapest minifigs

 

4/ There are cowboys in The Lego Movie, so the theme will come back again

 

So I bought quite some cavalry < 10E and Comanche < 15E as I suspect parent will easily pay 15 and 25E to get these

I went for the trains < 65E because they look great in any set-up and should get to 100E as does any respectable train

 

On the couple of Mine and Colby City Showdown in my closet I am less sure. I got some at 55% off and had to restrain myself to buy more as they looked tougher sells.

 

-  Part out value on the City Showdown is nonetheless 77Eand the mine 81E  so there is some intrinsic value.

    (not that great either as part out shops want > 2x value)

-  The problem is that the stocks are very high

    (my best guess is it will take 5 years to see a City above 60E - even worse on the mine).

 

All in all, when I sell this year, I know it will be hard to find a buyer at a decent price, but at least I recycle the cash in sets that could appreciate more. I will test the market during Christmas as it seems a little too early after EoL to already load them all off. And if I don't make money on the Mine/City, that's not a big issue. On these 2, as I think they will be dead money for many years to come, I'd rather recycle now and pump the cash into a HH. 

 

Let me know your thoughts too

 

regards. 

[biniou]

You have some points about smaller sets (interest given by soldiers and indians minifigs), even if I doubt it's interesting to have such work for such small profits, but I'm not sure about the rest.

I built the stagecoach set and... well, it's quite ok, but it looks like horses are dogs compared to the size of the stagecoach. :/

 

I went for the trains < 65E because they look great in any set-up and should get to 100E as does any respectable train

 

About this one I have a very good feeling. It might explode in value. I'm sad I wasn't able to get some with 20 or 30% off (so I passed on this set).

 

See below the lowest price to be found in french retailers (online sellers, including amazon, ebay, etc.):

 

 

The price vary greatly, it's 95/100

[redcell]

What he paid for them isn't really relevant for the question what to do with them now that he has them. Selling or keeping just depends on the price he would get for them now vs. the price in the future.

Option 1: hang on to them for a couple of years.

Option 2: sell them at current value and invest in other sets.

Which option is better depends on the growth rate that is to be expected with option nr 1 vs. the growth rate he would have with the sets he would pick with option nr. 2. Also factoring in that you would first lose a little money on ebay fees.

Sent from my iPad using Brickpicker

 

If the OP bought these with the hope of making a profit, what he paid for them is fairly relevant since that will determine whether and how much profit he will make when he sells them.  Personally, I am going to ditch all of my LR sets at the first opportunity (with the exception of the Cavalry).  Even if I only eke out a small profit or take a small loss, that money is much better spent elsewhere these days.

[Bernard74]

If the OP bought these with the hope of making a profit, what he paid for them is fairly relevant since that will determine whether and how much profit he will make when he sells them.  Personally, I am going to ditch all of my LR sets at the first opportunity (with the exception of the Cavalry).  Even if I only eke out a small profit or take a small loss, that money is much better spent elsewhere these days.

 

It's relevant for how much profit/loss he ultimately makes, but irrelevant for determining what is the better course of action from now on.

 

If you are hesitating between two options, you calculate the different potential outcome, so how much you get for the sets now or in a couple of years. Original buying price is the same for all scenario's, hence no difference. Can't explain it easier than that.

[redcell]

It's relevant for how much profit/loss he ultimately makes, but irrelevant for determining what is the better course of action from now on.

 

If you are hesitating between two options, you calculate the different potential outcome, so how much you get for the sets now or in a couple of years. Original buying price is the same for all scenario's, hence no difference. Can't explain it easier than that.

 

That was precisely my point.  In your original post, you said that "What he paid for them isn't really relevant," but I think that we both agree that it is, in fact, relevant, along with the amount that he can sell them for today or tomorrow.  If you want to argue for the sake of arguing, that's fine...I can do that all day, but we're both saying the same thing...I just highlighted purchase price as the more important variable because of the effect that it has on his eventual profit.  The lower the purchase price, the greater the ability to make profit today versus tomorrow and the higher the purchase price the longer that it will take to sell at a profit.   

[Bernard74]

Let me clarify my point though. The original question wasn't: "will I make a profit on these sets" (for which the buying price is obviously very relevant) but "should I hang to these sets longer or not"? The answer you gave was that that depended on the buying price. Bought them for less than 70: sell now, over 70: keep.

 

My point is that that is the wrong criteria. You keep them if you think they will grow beyond what they are worth now, you sell them if you think they don't (even if that means accepting a loss).

 

Let me illustrate that with an example. 

 

- Say you own 10 Stagecoaches that are now worth about $40.

- You expect them to grow just 10% in value the next year.

- You've got your eye on another set that you can now buy also for $40 which you will think will grow 50% in value.

 

Obviously in this case the better option is to unload the stagecoaches and reinvest the money you free up with those sales into that other set. In that case you get an extra 40% profit (minus 12% or so on ebay fees for the extra transactions). No matter what you originally payed for the stagecoaches.

 

Say however, that you expect them to grow a healthy 40%, while you don't think you can get better returns with another set: keep them. 

[Bernard74]

I must agree with you Biniou. Also keep in mind that the last 10 years I do not remember any good western movies coming out. The good days when Clint Eastwood and company were in those movies are long gone. Maybe a (quality) western blockbuster premiering could help us. It might have a positive effect on the lone ranger sets.

 

Personally I am a fan of westerns like Once Upon a Time in the West or the Good the Bad and the Ugly, but I think the times that all 8-10 year old kids are playing cowboys and Indians are probably behind us and not coming back.

 

Reason I think this, is that most tv-shows and movies that are aimed at those age groups follow the "goodies vs. the baddies" principle. (look at Star wars, Superheroes, Transformers etc.). Of course in the old days there didn't seem to be anything wrong with the cavalry saving a beleagered fortress from nasty, savage Indians who are after the scalps of refugee white women and children etc. Nowadays that is considered politically incorrect so when making a western you need someone else to be the baddies. Such as Aliens, which naturally comes across as odd.

 

For this reason I think westernmakers are probably better off targeting an older audience.

 

Wouldn't panic about the sets. The stagecoach you can still find in online stores, so not that surprising ebay sales aren't getting pricier yet. The train is getting harder to find and (in Europe at least) is already

[ZULU]

You have some points about smaller sets (interest given by soldiers and indians minifigs), even if I doubt it's interesting to have such work for such small profits, but I'm not sure about the rest.

I built the stagecoach set and... well, it's quite ok, but it looks like horses are dogs compared to the size of the stagecoach. :/

 

 

About this one I have a very good feeling. It might explode in value. I'm sad I wasn't able to get some with 20 or 30% off (so I passed on this set).

 

See below the lowest price to be found in french retailers (online sellers, including amazon, ebay, etc.):

 

 

The price vary greatly, it's 95/100