41999 - 4x4 Crawler Exclusive Edition

[nolanfan34]

I got to the last part of checkout and then had the same thing. Figured it was a glitch anyway.

[toni8284]

That means it's out of stock. someone checkout before you did.

[roto22]

It's up on TRU's Ebay store too. Just ordered one, but I'm sure like the last couple of times, it'll get cancelled.

[Quacs]

You can mostly thank Mark for 100% over retail selling.... he stopped buying look where the price went since that day?

 

Down $50 from $400 (100% ROI) given a $200 MSRP?  Any set that's been retired for less than a month that's garnering a 50-100% ROI can't be considered anything but a winner.

 

 

 

It is an awesome set, but I don't think it's accurate to imply that the resale price has been climbing to the point that it is now selling at twice retail a month after retirement. For a very large number of technic fans this set was never available in the first place. It never had a release, let alone a retirement date. Lack of access to Lego sales channels for many people pushed the resale price sky high immediately - particularly because of reseller interest. The BL stats appear to indicate that demand is now declining and the price likewise due to a current excess of supply.

 

Who implied anything?  The fact is that this set has sold from $100 to $200 over MSRP in the last two weeks.  Period.  Neither you nor I have any idea how it will sell in the future.  Do you know how far it will decline?  Maybe it will start to climb?  Past sales never guarantee future performance.

 

My point was that this set isn't being sold on average at $350 strictly because of resellers flipping, which is what CB said in his post.  Here's what he said:

 

Exactly - High level of interest from resellers. I don't think the 41999 is extremely attractive to the normal builder. Investors are interested because it has very limited production, but outside of that, there's not much that is more desireable over the regular Technic Crawler.

 

This bold/italicized comment is what I disagreed with.  It glosses over the fact that for a set to appreciate like 41999 has (regardless of what the sales chart shows), there must be demand for it.  Lego may have a limited production run on this set, but it's the desirability of this set to its target market COUPLED with the limited distribution that has pushed its price up.  I'm sure there are models of Lego clocks that have a lower production level than 20,000, but you don't see them being sold for twice retail price.  Why?  Because no one wants them at that price, like Alcarin posted earlier.  The fact remains that people continue to pay for this set at very high prices because the people that want it will pay for it!

 

The reality is that 41999 IS an extremely attractive build to the the normal Technic builder, which is who it was designed for in the first place.  No one would have purchased it for $350 yesterday if it wasn't.

[Mos_Eisley]

Here's my question: how does 20,000 compare to any other set that has been produced?

So we know there are "only" 20,000 of this set but what does that mean? How many Architecture Studios sets were made? How many Fire Brigades, Death Stars, The Zombies or anything else are there? None of us know, so as far we know 20,000 could be a pretty common production number for a set over $150. I'm sure it isn't the case, but just because there are "only" 20,000, doesn't really have that much meaning because we have no idea what we're comparing it to.

[toni8284]

It says limit of 1 per customer. How would you get 20? I can add it to cart, but checkout just hangs on my computer.

repeat 20 times.

[Quacs]

Here's my question: how does 20,000 compare to any other set that has been produced?

So we know there are "only" 20,000 of this set but what does that mean? How many Architecture Studios sets were made? How many Fire Brigades, Death Stars, The Zombies or anything else are there? None of us know, so as far we know 20,000 could be a pretty common production number for a set over $150. I'm sure it isn't the case, but just because there are "only" 20,000, doesn't really have that much meaning because we have no idea what we're comparing it to.

 

This is another great point.  No one knows how many of any Lego sets were made.  I did a blog post estimating the number of sets made by TLG every year HERE.  It's quite possible that there are fewer than 20,000 Goblin King Battle sets made by TLG, yet it's being discounted by over 50% on Target.com.

[citymorgue]

This conversation about desireability does has some merit. I think it's actually a pretty cool set and would buy it if I actually had the opportunity. But within limits. I personally wouldn't spend more than $300 tops on this set. But I can see why some people would spend a good bit for it. I'm not the biggest fan of technic but this is a nice set. I could forgo the limited run if Lego released another production that didn't have the special license plate.

[dbost01]

Yes yes, not everyone likes technic but there are many large technic sets that have done very well after retirement. I would put this set in that same category of large technic sets that do very well after retirement.

[legofreeman]

Yes yes, not everyone likes technic but there are many large technic sets that have done very well after retirement. I would put this set in that same category of large technic sets that do very well after retirement.

 

What sets have performed the best?

[Quacs]

What sets have performed the best?

 

Start here for your answer.

[Normanson]

Who implied anything?

 

What was implied is explicit in this statement:

 

It glosses over the fact that for a set to appreciate like 41999 has (regardless of what the sales chart shows), there must be demand for it.

 

 

I take issue with the idea that this set has appreciated since its retirement, or even its release. The BL and other stats show that demand and resale price were highest in the first month of release and have declined since. Access to Lego's sales channels was severely restricted for the majority of the world creating an instantaneous demand and high reseller interest exacerbated this. The fact is that the set has been depreciating since retirement because there is far more supply than demand. The number of people willing to pay twice retail is dwindling, while an increasing number of sellers are lowering prices to move stock.

 

I think it shows that the quick flippers were on the money this time and benefited handsomely from Lego's botched roll out. There is almost no doubt it will be a rather expensive MISB set at some point in the future, but that could be a rather distant future if resellers hold a significant portion of the total remaining unopened sets.

[dbost01]

So basically you are saying, the whole fun thing of supply and demand is affecting the price both up and down, right now down but eventually it will go back up...OK

[willy431]

Deleted 

[Grolim]

Here's my question: how does 20,000 compare to any other set that has been produced?

So we know there are "only" 20,000 of this set but what does that mean? How many Architecture Studios sets were made? How many Fire Brigades, Death Stars, The Zombies or anything else are there? None of us know, so as far we know 20,000 could be a pretty common production number for a set over $150. I'm sure it isn't the case, but just because there are "only" 20,000, doesn't really have that much meaning because we have no idea what we're comparing it to.

 

Very good point.

 

Also the fact that TLG slapped a "only 20,000" label on it has no doubt fueled some of the hype and demand for the set.  Their marketing team knew exactly what they were doing.

[Quacs]

What was implied is explicit in this statement:

 

 

I take issue with the idea that this set has appreciated since its retirement, or even its release. The BL and other stats show that demand and resale price were highest in the first month of release and have declined since. Access to Lego's sales channels was severely restricted for the majority of the world creating an instantaneous demand and high reseller interest exacerbated this. The fact is that the set has been depreciating since retirement because there is far more supply than demand. The number of people willing to pay twice retail is dwindling, while an increasing number of sellers are lowering prices to move stock.

 

I think it shows that the quick flippers were on the money this time and benefited handsomely from Lego's botched roll out. There is almost no doubt it will be a rather expensive MISB set at some point in the future, but that could be a rather distant future if resellers hold a significant portion of the total remaining unopened sets.

 

You're not reading what I wrote - maybe this is clearer: It glosses over the fact that for a set to appreciate from MSRP like 41999 has (regardless of what the sales chart shows), there must be demand for it. My point is valid whether we're talking about the value of this set three weeks ago or the sold prices you're seeing right now.  This set would not sell for 50-100% over MSRP if people didn't think it was a great set or if there wasn't substantial demand for it.  Why is that so controversial?

 

As far as this comment goes:  I take issue with the idea that this set has appreciated since its retirement, or even its release.  Well, the price has appreciated since it's release.  Anyone could purchase this set for MSRP at Lego S@H on September 1.  Now, anyone can buy it for MSRP + a significant premium on secondary markets.  In the US, these prices were $200 for MSRP and are $300-$400 for current secondary sales.  That's a healthy premium.  Again, there's no controversy or question here - the facts are clear. 

 

And what does "there's far more supply than demand" even mean?  The supply isn't changing - if anything, it's shrinking and always will.  Tell me how many listings or sales there were a month ago for this set compared to the number of listings or sales today.  This may be a surprise, but there are fewer today.  That doesn't point to any market flooding.  And for every set that is sold (presumably since Mark bowed out, they are all to end users given the high price point), there is one less set that current and future listings have to contend with.

 

While this may seem like it's in direct conflict from earlier posts, I would be willing to wager the set has decreased in demand since it's height 6-8 weeks ago.  In fact, most Lego sets on the retail market go through this phenomenon after release.  The difference here is that the demand is still strong enough to support a $350 purchase price (again, 50-100% over MSRP) in the US.  That's what I meant when I say demand is high for this set.  Again, what is so controversial about this?

 

If you think the price will continue to decrease until it hits $300, ask yourself if you would be willing to sell one of these for $300 today. My guess is that you would hang on to it because you know the supply will continue to dwindle while the demand levels or potentially grows.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

You're not reading what I wrote - maybe this is clearer: It glosses over the fact that for a set to appreciate from MSRP like 41999 has (regardless of what the sales chart shows), there must be demand for it. My point is valid whether we're talking about the value of this set three weeks ago or the sold prices you're seeing right now.  This set would not sell for 50-100% over MSRP if people didn't think it was a great set or if there wasn't substantial demand for it.  Why is that so controversial?

 

As far as this comment goes:  I take issue with the idea that this set has appreciated since its retirement, or even its release.  Well, the price has appreciated since it's release.  Anyone could purchase this set for MSRP at Lego LEGO Shop at Home on September 1.  Now, anyone can buy it for MSRP + a significant premium on secondary markets.  In the US, these prices were $200 for MSRP and are $300-$400 for current secondary sales.  That's a healthy premium.  Again, there's no controversy or question here - the facts are clear. 

 

And what does "there's far more supply than demand" even mean?  The supply isn't changing - if anything, it's shrinking and always will.  Tell me how many listings or sales there were a month ago for this set compared to the number of listings or sales today.  This may be a surprise, but there are fewer today.  That doesn't point to any market flooding.  And for every set that is sold (presumably since Mark bowed out, they are all to end users given the high price point), there is one less set that current and future listings have to contend with.

 

While this may seem like it's in direct conflict from earlier posts, I would be willing to wager the set has decreased in demand since it's height 6-8 weeks ago.  In fact, most Lego sets on the retail market go through this phenomenon after release.  The difference here is that the demand is still strong enough to support a $350 purchase price (again, 50-100% over MSRP) in the US.  That's what I meant when I say demand is high for this set.  Again, what is so controversial about this?

 

If you think the price will continue to decrease until it hits $300, ask yourself if you would be willing to sell one of these for $300 today. My guess is that you would hang on to it because you know the supply will continue to dwindle while the demand levels or potentially grows.

 

Exactly. How many other sets can you name that jumped this much in this short period of time?

 

In fact, all Lego sets see a lull even after retirement at some point. A lot of times right now as well, in December. Just look at some of the old sets - they will lull and then go back up.

 

And the 10212 Shuttle is down some as Stephen pointed out in another thread, but it is probably due to the fact that a bunch of people are selling them. When a set hits about double its MSRP, people start to unload hampering and diminishing growth or even price. But it always goes back up because...no more are made.

 

The set will go up in price. It may take a while, but to me - and I totally understand flipping them - why would you not want one or two to just ride the wave and see?

 

And as Quacs said, they are still selling. Mark isn't buying, so is it investors buying the sets now? I doubt it. Its people who never got one - and each one that is bought is opened and another one is gone.

[Normanson]

Anyone could purchase this set for MSRP at Lego LEGO Shop at Home on September 1.

 

No they couldn't. This is the crux of what I'm saying. Resale value started high (it did not increase gradually) because people who couldn't get it from Lego were willing to pay handsomely for it immediately. Resellers took this an indication that the set was going to continue appreciating from these very high initial prices and their demand pushed or maintained the elevated market. But there hasn't been any appreciation in this set's value since the frenzy in the first month. The highest prices were paid in that time. Since then, the BL figures indicate that demand has been easing, not leveling or growing, and resale prices are declining.

 

My argument is that this set has not appreciated in the slightest since its release. If you could get it at MSRP, all power to you, but for a lot of people there was no choice but to pay the resale price and this has been steadily dropping as demand eases.

[Pirate]

No they couldn't. This is the crux of what I'm saying. Resale value started high (it did not increase gradually) because people who couldn't get it from Lego were willing to pay handsomely for it immediately. 

 

Yes they could, in the US anyway.  It was readily available, in stock, for almost 2 weeks from S&**** before it sold out.

[Fcbarcelona101]

As well as in most of their B&M stores

[willy431]

I believe it was gone from shop at hone in 3 days?  And yes...it was  readily available at lego stores for 2 weeks before they limited purchase quantities...then another 2 weeks after that.    For the first wave.then the tru wave, then 2 more lego store waves. 

[willy431]

 

Here's my question: how does 20,000 compare to any other set that has been produced?

So we know there are "only" 20,000 of this set but what does that mean? How many Architecture Studios sets were made? How many Fire Brigades, Death Stars, The Zombies or anything else are there? None of us know, so as far we know 20,000 could be a pretty common production number for a set over $150. I'm sure it isn't the case, but just because there are "only" 20,000, doesn't really have that much meaning because we have no idea what we're comparing it to

 

 

 

We know there were 10k minecrafts....until they blew out in a month.  Then they extended  the run....they have  been selling well for a year now.....and guess what....another shortage this christmas.  Back of the envelope and a guess is telling us what......another 60k copies were printed this year--another 100k to stock walmart, target, barnes, amzn---maybe another 150k?...and still not enough.  That tells me 20k is a small run. 

[Normanson]

Yes they could, in the US anyway.  It was readily available, in stock, for almost 2 weeks from S&**** before it sold out.

 

Yes, in the US. Not the world.

 

Let's take NZ for example: No Lego stores. LEGO Shop at Home was out of stock in one day. Even if you were lucky enough to get in on the first day, order confirmations were not received for up to a fortnight. The first sets sold on the local auction site went for NZ$650 (RRP was NZ$300). Quite a few have sold at around $500 since then. The latest went for $388 - barely above the RRP of 9398 which is reselling around the $300 mark.

[Mos_Eisley]

Here's my question: how does 20,000 compare to any other set that has been produced?

So we know there are "only" 20,000 of this set but what does that mean? How many Architecture Studios sets were made? How many Fire Brigades, Death Stars, The Zombies or anything else are there? None of us know, so as far we know 20,000 could be a pretty common production number for a set over $150. I'm sure it isn't the case, but just because there are "only" 20,000, doesn't really have that much meaning because we have no idea what we're comparing it to

We know there were 10k minecrafts....until they blew out in a month. Then they extended the run....they have been selling well for a year now.....and guess what....another shortage this christmas. Back of the envelope and a guess is telling us what......another 60k copies were printed this year--another 100k to stock walmart, target, barnes, amzn---maybe another 150k?...and still not enough. That tells me 20k is a small run.

You're comparing a madly popular, licensed, $35 set to an unlicensed $200 set. There are no doubt 10s of thousands of battle packs made, but we're comparing totally different things. Either way, I don't know how 20k compares to other big sets, but for all we know it's the same as the average large set and they had an office bet to see how fast they could sell 20,000 sets.

[dbost01]

Give it some time people. It is Christmas time and that affects a lot of things. We should just pick up this topic again in 6 months.