41999 - 4x4 Crawler Exclusive Edition

[asharerin]

I think $650 USD is a good and realistic long term target for this set. When TLG produces its next limited number set 41999 will quickly be put on the back burner. 

[Fcbarcelona101]

The thing you are failing to understand .. THE HYPE IS OVER .. not many people are buying this up .. 

 

I would wait until we have the next couple months of data before making a statement like that. Of course, it's not going to be like it was during the first month or so just because the set is now gone from stores.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Let's all speculate and throw our 41999s out of the pram shall we?  It's a waiting game and we all know what we have to do unless Niels Jacobsen says otherwise.

[Mos_Eisley]

I think the biggest point people are missing is that the price was artificially propped up to $400-$450US because of one buyer. Had Mark not been buying so many at those prices, the price would have dropped off much sooner and likely wouldn't have spiked that high to begin with because the ebay supply would have been way higher than demand, which is currently the case. I'm not sure why so many think that retired sets just magically make huge leaps in price.

Even though there were only 20,000 produced, I'd be willing to bet my collection that there are more 41999s put away for investment than there were UCS Falcons, Market Streets and Cafe Corners combined when they retired, so looking to compare 41999 to any of those is unrealistic.

[Ed Mack]

I think the biggest point people are missing is that the price was artificially propped up to $400-$450US because of one buyer. Had Mark not been buying so many at those prices, the price would have dropped off much sooner and likely wouldn't have spiked that high to begin with because the ebay supply would have been way higher than demand, which is currently the case. I'm not sure why so many think that retired sets just magically make huge leaps in price.

Even though there were only 20,000 produced, I'd be willing to bet my collection that there are more 41999s put away for investment than there were UCS Falcons, Market Streets and Cafe Corners combined when they retired, so looking to compare 41999 to any of those is unrealistic.

Truth.  Over the past several weeks, my bullishness on this set has diminished.  Besides the resellers and investors talking up this set, I really don't see much interest in it from the majority of LEGO fans.  Technic has a strong following, but it is not as large as STAR WARS LEGO fans or Modular fans.  I agree with asharein above, with a around a $700, to maybe $800, peak price.  I used to think this set would hit $1000.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

It seems like most of us are losing faith in this set's future growth.  I, for one, are prepared to wait for a long time as there's no way that I'm selling these for less than 100% profit.  If interest has dwindled permanently, Mark will be kicking himself but, he strikes me as a guy with no flies on him.  It's a no-lose gamble IMHO.

[M4x18]

I think the biggest point people are missing is that the price was artificially propped up to $400-$450US because of one buyer. Had Mark not been buying so many at those prices, the price would have dropped off much sooner and likely wouldn't have spiked that high to begin with because the ebay supply would have been way higher than demand, which is currently the case. I'm not sure why so many think that retired sets just magically make huge leaps in price.

Even though there were only 20,000 produced, I'd be willing to bet my collection that there are more 41999s put away for investment than there were UCS Falcons, Market Streets and Cafe Corners combined when they retired, so looking to compare 41999 to any of those is unrealistic.

 

The price soared previously as you stated thanks to Mark. Right now, even with the supply "outweighing" demand it's still sitting well above retail. As supply starts to become more and more scarce it should pick up some steam. Not to make it reach $1000 or anywhere near in a year. The fact that most could be stashed away for investment wouldn't make an impact on the price unless everyone decides to sell at the same time, or if Mark decides to put them all on sale at once, then it'd be today's scenario all over again.

 

 

Truth.  Over the past several weeks, my bullishness on this set has diminished.  Besides the resellers and investors talking up this set, I really don't see much interest in it from the majority of LEGO fans.  Technic has a strong following, but it is not as large as STAR WARS LEGO fans or Modular fans.  I agree with asharein above, with a around a $700, to maybe $800, peak price.  I used to think this set would hit $1000.

 

What do you think would happen if they start doing more Technic Limited Editions such as this one? Another 'You design it, we build it' set also with a limited production quantity, don't you think that this would draw more attention to 41999?

[boxofcorey]

Truth.  Over the past several weeks, my bullishness on this set has diminished.  Besides the resellers and investors talking up this set, I really don't see much interest in it from the majority of LEGO fans.  Technic has a strong following, but it is not as large as STAR WARS LEGO fans or Modular fans.  I agree with asharein above, with a around a $700, to maybe $800, peak price.  I used to think this set would hit $1000.

 

The other thing people overlook is the 9398. Are the features on the 41999 (including it's perceived exclusivity) enough to drive the price up near 1000? I don't know.

 

I have a few stashed regardless, it's not like I can't make a small profit on these no matter what but I still feel like it's worth the gamble.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

If another "you design it we build it" set comes out, the 41999 will be remembered again and it will always be the first and you can't take that accolade away from it.  In  year from now we'll know if we did the right thing or not.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to those across the pond and I hope you all enjoy the results of turkey genocide! ;-)

[Ed Mack]

I think the other Crawler(9398) could hurt its value.  There could be a ton of people sitting on the fence and will settle for the same basic set, but at half the price.  Also, don't forget about people possibly "Bricklinking" this set, using the 9398 as a starting point.  They could remake a close replica of the 41999 relatively "cheap."

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I am totally with both of you here - I do think tere are a few counterpoints:

1: mark definitely inflated the price. However I think there were some people who bought these to build and eventually said "screw it I am doubling my money".. Had he prove stayed a little lower, that may not have happened. I still think your point is valid mos, but I think it's worth mentioning that I had friends who bought it build and then made this decision. Maybe they were he only ones- who knows.

2. We don't have any idea what technic will be in a few years- however, if tru goes under and everyone else gets this line, watch out. Technic stuff is amazing. It's hard to build in a good way, has motors, and is impressive as hell. If, and that's a big if, this becomes considered a holy grail of a line that jumps in popularity, we may see different results.

Now I still think I would agree with both of you, I just wouldn't bet my collection - but it's insignificant compared to either of yours. Lol

[Alcarin]

 

What do you think would happen if they start doing more Technic Limited Editions such as this one? Another 'You design it, we build it' set also with a limited production quantity, don't you think that this would draw more attention to 41999?

 

Depends if the next one looks better with better functions I think it might hurt the value... I doubt there are many technic completionists out there lol

 

 

 

 

 

I talked to quiet a few local LEGO lovers in the last 2 months, and while loads love LEGO none expressed special love for Technic, its only a small part but still it just shows how many people love LEGO and have no real interest in technic....

 

I know personally for use i would NEVER buy a Technic set.... just find no appeal in them

[Fcbarcelona101]

It's a niche market. As long as their target customer keeps buying it, the sets will continue to grow in value once retired.

[legoman12323123]

I think the biggest point people are missing is that the price was artificially propped up to $400-$450US because of one buyer. Had Mark not been buying so many at those prices, the price would have dropped off much sooner and likely wouldn't have spiked that high to begin with because the ebay supply would have been way higher than demand, which is currently the case. I'm not sure why so many think that retired sets just magically make huge leaps in price.

Even though there were only 20,000 produced, I'd be willing to bet my collection that there are more 41999s put away for investment than there were UCS Falcons, Market Streets and Cafe Corners combined when they retired, so looking to compare 41999 to any of those is unrealistic.

exactly lol .. all my sets i sold above $400+ like 15 of them in a months span was all bought by 1 person .. lol had it not been for that one person .. the set woulda tanked to $300-$350  a month or 2 ahead of time

[Mos_Eisley]

2. We don't have any idea what technic will be in a few years- however, if tru goes under and everyone else gets this line, watch out. Technic stuff is amazing. It's hard to build in a good way, has motors, and is impressive as hell. If, and that's a big if, this becomes considered a holy grail of a line that jumps in popularity, we may see different results.

The only thing I'd say to this is that Technic is only a TRU exclusive because nobody else was carrying the line. Target, Walmart, etc. didn't carry Technic because it probably wasn't moving fast enough for them to take up the shelf space. If TRU goes away it doesn't mean that stores are getting access to something they couldn't get before, it's stuff they didn't want to carry anymore.

[Ed Mack]

The only thing I'd say to this is that Technic is only a TRU exclusive because nobody else was carrying the line. Target, Walmart, etc. didn't carry Technic because it probably wasn't moving fast enough for them to take up the shelf space. If TRU goes away it doesn't mean that stores are getting access to something they couldn't get before, it's stuff they didn't want to carry anymore.

Once again, I agree with this.  I love Technic sets, but they are an investment afterthought for me in most cases.  When I get around to it, I will buy some of the larger sets, but never more than 2 or 3 larger ones.  Mos Eisley makes a valid point about shelf space.  TRUs dedicate two to three times(or more) the floor space to LEGO items because they have it and need to fill it, so why not sell Technic?  

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I didnt know that - good info for sure.

You think it would still be that way? I know it flies off the shelves at my tru. Of all the deals they had the last month, the technic stuff got obliterated compared to everything else. Maybe it is just here because I live in the south and people love sexy tractors and NASCAR.

I have bought tons of technic stuff from amazon uk as well and it sells immediately on eBay.

When did the technic line come out? Do you think Walmart and those chains would still deny it?

[Mos_Eisley]

I didnt know that - good info for sure.

You think it would still be that way? I know it flies off the shelves at my tru. Of all the deals they had the last month, the technic stuff got obliterated compared to everything else. Maybe it is just here because I live in the south and people love sexy tractors and NASCAR.

I have bought tons of technic stuff from amazon uk as well and it sells immediately on eBay.

When did the technic line come out? Do you think Walmart and those chains would still deny it?

Technic has been around since the late 70's. I had them as a kid but they were never as fun to me as the castle and city sets. Other stores may pick up some Technic sets to carry, but I doubt they'd carry the whole line.

[MartinP]

Technic has been around since the late 70's. I had them as a kid but they were never as fun to me as the castle and city sets. Other stores may pick up some Technic sets to carry, but I doubt they'd carry the whole line.

If other stores do carry Technic sets in the future, they would only carry the smaller sets.

[toy brick salvage]

As to Mark: he has quite an investment in Crawlers, I sold him 2 or 3 myself in the above $400.00 range. That being said, unless he is giving them to clients that order a huge amount of carpet, He's in the Carpet business, he has to sell them above what he payed for, $400.00 or more. So why be worried, he's not competition, he could be an asset to sales. Him market is Europe, UK and other parts across the pond. Don't worry, create "sizzle" in you text when you sell it.

[dbost01]

Yeah, Mark bought alot for $400 approximately. If they were an investment you would think he would wait till he could sale them for a significant chunk. If he using them for some other reason, and not planning on selling them that just means less supply. To me, Mark buying alot up, at that price, is solid for other investors that bought them for $200 with a christmas promo and ten percent in VIP points.

[TheOrcKing]

Technic sets of today are vastly superior to the ones from even 10 years ago. Nowadays designs are much more streamlined and don't just appear like a big swiss cheese skeleton with pins stuck in it. I would love to be able to pick up Technic at Walmart like I used to back in the day but so much for that anymore. Nearest Toys R Us and Lego Store is an hours drive one way so that's out. Course that limited availability could be what helps the Technic theme investment wise. A theme bought primarily by grownups.

[MartinP]

Technic sets of today are vastly superior to the ones from even 10 years ago. Nowadays designs are much more streamlined and don't just appear like a big swiss cheese skeleton with pins stuck in it. I would love to be able to pick up Technic at Walmart like I used to back in the day but so much for that anymore. Nearest Toys R Us and Lego Store is an hours drive one way so that's out. Course that limited availability could be what helps the Technic theme investment wise. A theme bought primarily by grownups.

I am fortunate to have a Lego store near me, but I do not buy Technic sets that often. My reason agrees with your statement, a theme bought primarily by grownups. Some of the sets are large and intricate builds and it is very difficult. You miss a step and you might have to take apart the whole set to fix it. I do not like when that happens. That probably is the reason why a lot of adults buy Technic and not kids.

[TheOrcKing]

Some of the sets are large and intricate builds and it is very difficult. You miss a step and you might have to take apart the whole set to fix it. I do not like when that happens. That probably is the reason why a lot of adults buy Technic and not kids.

That and they get pricy real quick. Lowest Technic is $20 and then jumps to $50-$80-$100+. Takes a chunk out of any kids allowance. Heh.

[MartinP]

That and they get pricy real quick. Lowest Technic is $20 and then jumps to $50-$80-$100+. Takes a chunk out of any kids allowance. Heh.

Add electric motors and functions and it gets even pricier.