41999 - 4x4 Crawler Exclusive Edition

[willy431]

That is really interesting that you think flippers and resellers are killing the lego market---yet---you are a (failed?)(reformed?) flipper (reseller?)---is that what you are trying to say ---but it's for the kids--so it's ok--or not?   Lost me on that part.  All these internal contradictions should be played out in your own mind, or with a qualified professional before putting pen to paper (or fingers to keys) in a public sphere.

 

All I can offer is that kijii isn't the best place to sell over priced lego. Ebay or bricklink is.  People go to kijii and craigs to save money--not pay over retail.  There are plenty of buyers on ebay for $400.  I can PM you the name of 2 people who are CONSTANTLY emailing me asking for more at $400 plus shipping.  I have sold 10 to one guy, and 4 ot the other--and they both want more.  PM me if you would like their contact info.

 

Welcome to the site----we should be able to get your concerns addressed, and help your future endevours.  Looks like you made some stellar picks in the past for your hrm hrm "investments" sicne you don't flip sets....right away.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I can't understand the difficulty in not, at least, doubling your money on the 41999.  I've been offered

[Locutis]

That is really interesting that you think flippers and resellers are killing the lego market---yet---you are a (failed?)(reformed?) flipper (reseller?)---is that what you are trying to say ---but it's for the kids--so it's ok--or not?   Lost me on that part.  All these internal contradictions should be played out in your own mind, or with a qualified professional before putting pen to paper (or fingers to keys) in a public sphere.

 

All I can offer is that kijii isn't the best place to sell over priced lego. Ebay or bricklink is.  People go to kijii and craigs to save money--not pay over retail.  There are plenty of buyers on ebay for $400.  I can PM you the name of 2 people who are CONSTANTLY emailing me asking for more at $400 plus shipping.  I have sold 10 to one guy, and 4 ot the other--and they both want more.  PM me if you would like their contact info.

 

Welcome to the site----we should be able to get your concerns addressed, and help your future endevours.  Looks like you made some stellar picks in the past for your hrm hrm "investments" sicne you don't flip sets....right away.

 

I'm not referring to the casual collector/investor (like myself, or even lower-key buyer/sellers).  What I'm referring to is the person who buys 50 Death Stars, or 200 of the 4x4 Crawlers. They ruin the market.

 

The average collector who buys an extra 2-3 of a set to either keep for themselves, or resell later, is not the problem.  They are in fact a solution to help Lego's growth.  The investor who buys solely to profit 4 fold on a set and has little or no interest in the hobby is the problem.

 

The Lego mega-investor is similar to the other market I work in.  Those customers have zero interest in the actual product they buy to flip, and buy as many as they can to flip as fast as they can only to pay off their credit card bill.  If they can't flip for 2x within 30 days they cancel/return so that they aren't holding debt on their credit card.  Let me give you an example:  A product came out last year, and sold out within ours.  We were able to carry an allocated number, and we try to help our own customers out.  Flippers flooded us trying to buy as many as possible because they were creating a market by flipping them on eBay and other venues at double issue price.  We would prefer to sell to our own group of customers at retail, but because of the flippers, were forced to institute limits, and raise prices so that our own customers have access.  This spring, a similar product was launched, similar effect, but not quite the same.  This fall, another product was launched, and instead of limiting or raising prices we held at issue price and kept some for our own customers at RRP.  In the beginning flippers were ordering from us like mad.  When we did not raise prices or restrict quantities, the product became more readily available to the COLLECTOR, who then did not buy from the flipper.  Result?  Flippers cancelling their orders with us because they couldn't resell and make 2x.

 

Again, I'm not talking about the collector who also buys a few to resell, I'm talking solely about the individual who tries to make it big with $10,000+ purchases monthly.  Not only do they hurt the market, they also skew it.  Lego has no idea how many Death Stars or Fire Brigade sets are in investor's hands, vs. sets bought and built.  Lego would prefer to sell to the end consumer.

 

I'm a consumer, not an investor.  While I do buy a few to resell, I also choose to simply keep a lot of what I have bought.  I have made a little money, but nothing to pay the bills with.  When I look at a set I don't think "how much could I resell this for?".  I buy because I like something, not because I can make money off of it.  When I bought 7 Emerald Night sets, it was partly because I knew they would be a good item to have, and partly because if anything, I could build a nice train display with them.  The fact that they now sell for 4-5x what I paid means I no longer feel as attached to them.  I would rather sell an Emerald Night at $325 and use the money to buy something else now.

 

I am glad for those who buy sets and sit on them, to resell later for 50%-100% markup, and I have bought several times when a set I wanted was unavailable otherwise (Cafe Corner, Monster Fighters Zombies, and others).  Sports cards used to be collected by fans and kids.  Then in the 90's the market exploded and specialty pieces began being manufactured to make them rare (think Mr. Gold as an example).  Uncle Charlie became a sports card dealer out of his basement.  Then it imploded, and never recovered.  I believe we will see the eventual bursting of this bubble.

 

I have 4x4 Crawlers listed on Bricklink.  Haven't sold one.  I don't like eBay, so I'm not touching it.

 

I'm not against those who buy to resell, I'm against those who buy SOLELY to resell, in very large quantities, making it hard/impossible for others to buy (4x4 Crawler is a good example, but so is the Minecraft set from last year).  I was hoping to sell all of my crawlers locally for a small markup.  So far that hasn't happened.

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I don't like eBay, so I'm not touching it.

 

And here lies your problem. I have sold about 10 Crawlers on Ebay (all my friends and 1 of mine - I saved the rest of them that I bought). I sold them all within several days of posting.

 

I see some of your points, but regardless you need to use Ebay. I don't know about how other stuff is working with it - but Ebay is working.

 

If you want, Ill take all those Crawlers off your hands for what you paid for them. I know I can easily make $150 per.

[Ed Mack]

I'm not referring to the casual collector/investor (like myself, or even lower-key buyer/sellers).  What I'm referring to is the person who buys 50 Death Stars, or 200 of the 4x4 Crawlers. They ruin the market.

 

The average collector who buys an extra 2-3 of a set to either keep for themselves, or resell later, is not the problem.  They are in fact a solution to help Lego's growth.  The investor who buys solely to profit 4 fold on a set and has little or no interest in the hobby is the problem.

 

The Lego mega-investor is similar to the other market I work in.  Those customers have zero interest in the actual product they buy to flip, and buy as many as they can to flip as fast as they can only to pay off their credit card bill.  If they can't flip for 2x within 30 days they cancel/return so that they aren't holding debt on their credit card.  Let me give you an example:  A product came out last year, and sold out within ours.  We were able to carry an allocated number, and we try to help our own customers out.  Flippers flooded us trying to buy as many as possible because they were creating a market by flipping them on eBay and other venues at double issue price.  We would prefer to sell to our own group of customers at retail, but because of the flippers, were forced to institute limits, and raise prices so that our own customers have access.  This spring, a similar product was launched, similar effect, but not quite the same.  This fall, another product was launched, and instead of limiting or raising prices we held at issue price and kept some for our own customers at RRP.  In the beginning flippers were ordering from us like mad.  When we did not raise prices or restrict quantities, the product became more readily available to the COLLECTOR, who then did not buy from the flipper.  Result?  Flippers cancelling their orders with us because they couldn't resell and make 2x.

 

Again, I'm not talking about the collector who also buys a few to resell, I'm talking solely about the individual who tries to make it big with $10,000+ purchases monthly.  Not only do they hurt the market, they also skew it.  Lego has no idea how many Death Stars or Fire Brigade sets are in investor's hands, vs. sets bought and built.  Lego would prefer to sell to the end consumer.

 

I'm a consumer, not an investor.  While I do buy a few to resell, I also choose to simply keep a lot of what I have bought.  I have made a little money, but nothing to pay the bills with.  When I look at a set I don't think "how much could I resell this for?".  I buy because I like something, not because I can make money off of it.  When I bought 7 Emerald Night sets, it was partly because I knew they would be a good item to have, and partly because if anything, I could build a nice train display with them.  The fact that they now sell for 4-5x what I paid means I no longer feel as attached to them.  I would rather sell an Emerald Night at $325 and use the money to buy something else now.

 

I am glad for those who buy sets and sit on them, to resell later for 50%-100% markup, and I have bought several times when a set I wanted was unavailable otherwise (Cafe Corner, Monster Fighters Zombies, and others).  Sports cards used to be collected by fans and kids.  Then in the 90's the market exploded and specialty pieces began being manufactured to make them rare (think Mr. Gold as an example).  Uncle Charlie became a sports card dealer out of his basement.  Then it imploded, and never recovered.  I believe we will see the eventual bursting of this bubble.

 

I have 4x4 Crawlers listed on Bricklink.  Haven't sold one.  I don't like eBay, so I'm not touching it.

 

I'm not against those who buy to resell, I'm against those who buy SOLELY to resell, in very large quantities, making it hard/impossible for others to buy (4x4 Crawler is a good example, but so is the Minecraft set from last year).  I was hoping to sell all of my crawlers locally for a small markup.  So far that hasn't happened.

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

I agree with your points.  I invest for the long haul and really do not appreciate the LEGO "investors" that never crack open a set to build.  The hard core "flippers" who have zero interest in the LEGO hobby itself annoy me to be quite honest.  While I realize I might be upsetting some members, I'm just being honest here.  This site was not really developed for those types of investors, but for people who love LEGO bricks and want to make a couple bucks from investing in them.

 

I do believe LEGO has put a big hurt on these hard core flippers by putting buying restrictions in place.  I think LEGO is hurting themselves though by reducing sales on larger sets, but I think that will return to normal with time.  Thanks for posting...

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I agree with your points.  I invest for the long haul and really do not appreciate the LEGO "investors" that never crack open a set to build.  The hard core "flippers" who have zero interest in the LEGO hobby itself annoy me to be quite honest.  While I realize I might be upsetting some members, I'm just being honest here.  This site was not really developed for those types of investors, but for people who love LEGO bricks and want to make a couple bucks from investing in them.

 

I do believe LEGO has put a big hurt on these hard core flippers by putting buying restrictions in place.  I think LEGO is hurting themselves though by reducing sales on larger sets, but I think that will return to normal with time.  Thanks for posting...

 

I think I fit in this category. I have more sets to build or built than I have sold or are holding to sell. I am not a fan of the people who don't understand or love Legos - those are probably the ones on Ebay with Death Stars listed at $800.

[MartinP]

I think I fit in this category. I have more sets to build or built than I have sold or are holding to sell. I am not a fan of the people who don't understand or love Legos - those are probably the ones on Ebay with Death Stars listed at $800.

I am also probably in this category. There are some people who do not love Lego sets, like those people who have sets graded so that they can make more money.

[Diabolos80]

FYI; my store had one crawler on the shelf. It wasnt there last friday. I didnt ask where it came from. Now I have 3 Also picked up a winter market to BUILD

P.s. the employees and i discussed the 10% coupon and concluded that exclusives are excluded so as not to undersell other retailers. Apparently stores face strict penalties for breaking the new coupon policy.

[VaderFan16]

I agree with your points on people who buy

 

I agree with your points.  I invest for the long haul and really do not appreciate the LEGO "investors" that never crack open a set to build.  The hard core "flippers" who have zero interest in the LEGO hobby itself annoy me to be quite honest.  While I realize I might be upsetting some members, I'm just being honest here.  This site was not really developed for those types of investors, but for people who love LEGO bricks and want to make a couple bucks from investing in them.

 

I do believe LEGO has put a big hurt on these hard core flippers by putting buying restrictions in place.  I think LEGO is hurting themselves though by reducing sales on larger sets, but I think that will return to normal with time.  Thanks for posting...

I concur with this sentiment.  I enjoy collecting Legos and this is something I want to share with my son as he grows older.  Legos are expensive and I buy multiples (no more than three of a set) one to build and the other two to pay for what I spent or will spend.  For some people this may be the only way they can feed their Lego addiction.  I am not looking to make a profit but to buy sets later down the road that I have interests in. For example, I want to buy Lego set 7683, the "original" Batcave but to do this would set me back $500.00 plus.  The money I make from the sets I have multiples of will one day, I hope, give me enough money to make this purchase.

[Quacs]

I agree with your points on people who buy

 

I concur with this sentiment.  I enjoy collecting Legos and this is something I want to share with my son as he grows older.  Legos are expensive and I buy multiples (no more than three of a set) one to build and the other two to pay for what I spent or will spend.  For some people this may be the only way they can feed their Lego addiction.  I am not looking to make a profit but to buy sets later down the road that I have interests in. For example, I want to buy Lego set 7683, the "original" Batcave but to do this would set me back $500.00 plus.  The money I make from the sets I have multiples of will one day, I hope, give me enough money to make this purchase.

 

If you're anywhere near Chicago, there's a seller on CL looking to move his used Batcave (7783) for $260.

[VaderFan16]

If you're anywhere near Chicago, there's a seller on CL looking to move his used Batcave (7783) for $260.

I am about 5 hours away from Chicago.  Do you have a link for this posting on CL?  Thanks for replying with this information.

[Quacs]

I am about 5 hours away from Chicago.  Do you have a link for this posting on CL?  Thanks for replying with this information.

 

PM sent with listing link and info.

 

Sorry for the threadjack everyone - now back to discussing 4x4 Crawler...

[Fcbarcelona101]

Both Orlando and Miami got a shipment in today. Sold out now

[MartinP]

Both Orlando and Miami got a shipment in today. Sold out now

Stores are still getting shipments of the 41999 Crawler. I am beginning to think that there were more than 20,000 produced.

[Diabolos80]

Each store got 6-30 each shipment. That's 90 per store at most, and there are 40ish stores. So, rough estimate, maybe 5,000 copies went to stores. Not much. It's probable that TLG is rationing them in staggered shipments. 20,000 is a bigger number than you might think.

[Quacs]

Each store got 6-30 each shipment. That's 90 per store at most, and there are 40ish stores. So, rough estimate, maybe 5,000 copies went to stores. Not much. It's probable that TLG is rationing them in staggered shipments. 20,000 is a bigger number than you might think.

 

Agreed - no one has ever confirmed all 20,000 have been released. 

[lowillsw]

Each store got 6-30 each shipment. That's 90 per store at most, and there are 40ish stores. So, rough estimate, maybe 5,000 copies went to stores. Not much. It's probable that TLG is rationing them in staggered shipments. 20,000 is a bigger number than you might think.

 

There's actually 104 Lego stores around the world at the last count.  That's easily half of the 20k.  You also have to account for TRU and LEGO Shop at Home that got the allocation.  Never say never but that's fairly close to the 20k number.  I see stray few ones showing up at the Lego stores as I can't help but snag them up.  It can be weak hands returning them or they are the broken boxes that were returned.  It's reasonable with the logistics to take 1 month or 2 to reprint those boxes.  

[MartinP]

There's actually 104 Lego stores around the world at the last count.  That's easily half of the 20k.  You also have to account for TRU and LEGO Shop at Home that got the allocation.  Never say never but that's fairly close to the 20k number.  I see stray few ones showing up at the Lego stores as I can't help but snag them up.  It can be weak hands returning them or they are the broken boxes that were returned.  It's reasonable with the logistics to take 1 month or 2 to reprint those boxes.  

That sounds like and good estimate. I think that TLG gave 1,000 sets to TRU, 9,000 to LEGO Shop at Home, and 10,000 to Lego Store across the whole world.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

There's actually 104 Lego stores around the world at the last count.  That's easily half of the 20k.  You also have to account for TRU and LEGO Shop at Home that got the allocation.  Never say never but that's fairly close to the 20k number.  I see stray few ones showing up at the Lego stores as I can't help but snag them up.  It can be weak hands returning them or they are the broken boxes that were returned.  It's reasonable with the logistics to take 1 month or 2 to reprint those boxes.  

 

Eh I don't think all Lego stores in the world got them.

 

Our buddy Mark buying them all (he is still looking for them if you need his info - pm me) said that a lot of places didn't get these at all - which is why he is stocking up so much. He said besides the US canda and UK, there weren't many out there. 

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Both Orlando and Miami got a shipment in today. Sold out now

 

Lol just called my store. They got one too.

[Quacs]

There's actually 104 Lego stores around the world at the last count.  That's easily half of the 20k.  You also have to account for TRU and S@H that got the allocation.  Never say never but that's fairly close to the 20k number.  I see stray few ones showing up at the Lego stores as I can't help but snag them up.  It can be weak hands returning them or they are the broken boxes that were returned.  It's reasonable with the logistics to take 1 month or 2 to reprint those boxes.  

 

Look, we can estimate quantities any way we want, but there's no guarantee Lego has released all of these.  How do you know that S@H was given 10,000, or even sold 10,000 for that matter?  How do I know they didn't?  We're all just speculating.

 

There remains a strong possibility that we will continue to see these sets released periodically over the holiday season - this would be in line with Lego's desire to get this set directly into as many of their customer's as they can.  There's also an equally strong possibility that there are no more to release.  What I know for a fact is that Lego will not produce more than 20,000 of the limited edition per MartinP's concern above.  It's bad business to lie directly to customers.

[legopocalypse]

Businesses lie directly to customers all the time unfortunately

[willy431]

They are back!  Brother got one at peabody and one at burlington.  Wife is on her way to braintree.  They are checking vip cards....if you bought one last wave...they are under strict orders to not sell another.     Also....10% coupon not accepted for these.

[lowillsw]

I'm still quite confused about this set.  I missed out in the initial offering from LEGO Shop at Home, and not having a Lego store anywhere near me, I was out of luck.

 

In the weeks after initial release, I saw prices surge past $400 and wrote this set off my list (I wasn't willing to pay that much for one).  Over the course of 6-8 weeks, people continued to be able to buy these up at retail, including local Lego stores, which irritated me (as I don't have that option).

 

Through a very big blessing, I was able to receive the notification that Toys R Us (.ca) had some back in stock early in the morning several weeks back.  I bought 1, then 2 more (for my son, and a friend), then realized I wasn't logged into any account when I ordered, and ordered several more within my account so I could properly track the order(s) in case some got cancelled.  To my amazement TRU shipped my sets a few days later, and I got them.

 

TRU.ca charged Canadian retail for the sets (249.95), plus 5% GST and 8% PST.  That came out to $283 CDN.  I have been trying to sell them on several sites, including Kijiji now for 3+ weeks at $350 and no dice.  Not one inquiry or order.  Where are all the real buyers of this set?

 

I'm debating on returning some back to TRU as Technic isn't my usual forte (though I do collect these big motorized sets, I don't want an army), I collect Town and City and Creator sets.  I have no problem keeping 3 Grand Emporiums (worst case I open and build them), but keeping several of these sets would upset me.

 

Given the fact that the other sites have prices in the $400+ range, plus shipping to Canada ($50+) plus customs would charge 5%+8%, I can't see why I can't even sell ONE in a city of 800,000 for $350, which is only $67 over cost.

 

In my opinion, the market on this set is extremely skewed towards the resellers/flippers.  I've had experience reselling rare sets, and it's nothing like this.  I've sold modular buildings after retirement, Emerald Night sets, Creator and Town houses, all for 50% over issue, to more than 5x issue, and there's always interest in these sets.

 

I know everyone will say "hold them and after a few years it will be a good investment", however, I can't seem to see that.  If the typical Technic builder/collector isn't buying these up like hotcakes at $350, how will more time make any difference?  At least with my Green Grocers, my Emerald Nights, etc., there was supreme demand in the months following, and I still have demand every few months.

 

I do have 16 years of marketing and pricing experience with another market that is similar to this one, (I am the Director of a corporation for a distributor of a collector's product), and analyzing the sales numbers on this set now after some time has passed provides a very disturbing outlook.  At work I developed a proprietary system of analyzing sales and pricing data, over a period of time, and providing an analysis of sales forecast.  I have applied this knowledge to my Lego investing, and have been pretty successful.  I jumped the gun when I saw this set, without knowing what the real sales of it were.  

 

I believe in 18 months leading up to 2-3 years, no one will even care about this set.  Just like flippers and mass resellers have started to ruin the market I'm involved with outside of Lego, so are some flippers ruining the Lego market, in my opinion.  Why did I get involved in reselling? Because I was ripped off by a seller on Bricklink from Quebec, and decided to make back some of that loss ($600 of my son's saved up allowance, birthday, and Christmas money) by honestly reselling discontinued Lego sets locally so I can help others not get ripped off.  I don't buy Lego to resell to make a ton of money, I buy what I like and what I think others will like at a moderate markup to help pay for my hobby.  I own 4 Delorean sets, all of which will be built.  I own 2 Pet Shops, both built.  I own 4 Grand Emporium sets, 1 built, 3 sealed in boxes.  If I decide not to sell them, I won't, and I'll just build them for my own Lego displays.  If they become worth $300+ on the market, then so be it, someone can buy them from me.  I hold nothing waiting for extreme profits, I sell in stages to help offset other costs.

 

Why did I buy several Technic Crawlers?  I don't even know now...

 

Locutis

 

I beg you differ.  Not to disrespect what you do professionally or what product you are marketing.  Your model might be quite robust but I'm not sure how you can input all the variables to say the sales and price of this set is unsustainable.  Lego has a moat that no other toy brand possess so I highly doubt we'll lose the last marginal buyer for the price to crash anytime soon.  You can see the numbers on Ebay that it is still going strong on sale for this particular set.  I'm not really sure how you can forecast the supply and demand as this set has only been out for 2 months as there is not enough sample size.  Kids would walk up to and ask me about the 41999 when I'm checking out Technic sets in the Lego stores.  These kids who stay as fans will be looking for these when they have grow up.

 

I don't dislike flippers as they don't get high on their own supply (good for them).  Flippers doesn't destroy markets, it only weeds out the the consumers that can't afford it.  They are taking a risk too like your example since they'll be holding the bag if it doesn't seller.  If they don't flip on Ebay there is no price discovery and none of us would buy Lego to speculate nor will there be a buzz.  In the process, some of us made some quick cash doing it.  That cash goes back to more Lego.  Lego is timeless as we all know and it's getting even more popular for the years to come.  Just pick your spots like you always have and you'll be fine.  I would not go out and write off this set just yet.

[Quacs]

Businesses lie directly to customers all the time unfortunately

 

We're not talking about Enron or Tyco here.  Do you really think Lego would lie to their customers about the distribution of a limited edition?  That would be suicidal to all future limited edition sales, not to mention potentially disastrous to their brand image.  It's one thing to put in place policies that people may not agree with, it's quite another to "bait and switch" your customers.