41999 - 4x4 Crawler Exclusive Edition

[ausleigh]

Hopefully they'll get picked up by someone that genuinely wants to own one of these for them self. Nothing wrong with that.

[wesman888]

I can't agree with you more...  1 is enough for me...  Should I open it or should I hold on to it until later?

[jaylay]

dude, i was just about to offer $20 to anyone that can get me extra sets in the store ... but i didnt ... called mom up and she gladly helped!  gotta love moms!!!

[Ed Mack]

I just want to clarify my point.  People have every right to make money the best way it suits them, as long as it's legit and honest.  All are welcome to use our site.  I know some think of LEGO bricks as a commodity, but it is my wish that people who use our site have an appreciation of LEGO bricks and have at least built a set or two.  It might be a bit unrealistic or illogical viewpoint, but I believe the long term success of this site and LEGO investing depends on people being fans of the little plastic bricks, not just resellers of them.

[Diabolos80]

If anyone here is NOT interested in handling, sorting, inventorying, restoring, and/or building Lego, you're not just missing fun. You're missing oppurtunity, market diversity, and profits as well. But that's cool; more for me.

[Alcarin]

We're not talking about Enron or Tyco here.  Do you really think Lego would lie to their customers about the distribution of a limited edition?  That would be suicidal to all future limited edition sales, not to mention potentially disastrous to their brand image.  It's one thing to put in place policies that people may not agree with, it's quite another to "bait and switch" your customers.

 

I dont think LEGO ever PROMISED they would only make 20.000 and never produce 1 more.... they just said they are making limited edition of 20.000 for now... they did never say no new batch anymore... I dont see that as lying.... first limitied edition was 20k now there might be more limited editions...

[Diabolos80]

Good Gawd are we still talking about that? Might might might might. Might the sun won't come up tomorrow, I bet we'd all regret buying crawlers then, wouldn't we?

[wesman888]

I would not regret because I can open the set and enjoy building it.

[TheOrcKing]

I dont think LEGO ever PROMISED they would only make 20.000 and never produce 1 more.... they just said they are making limited edition of 20.000 for now... they did never say no new batch anymore... I dont see that as lying.... first limitied edition was 20k now there might be more limited editions...

Well, if that is the case then maybe Lego will make more Mr. Golds and I'll be able to finally find one for myself.

[Ivanlau1999]

I am wondering I should get this or the haunted house for a long term investment (3-5years)

Because I don't think there are many fans of this set = not a really big market ?

And many people will totally forgot about this set after 3-5years

So I am still having some safe money returning issue with this set

P.s. I can't do any any quick flip yet cause I am still a student

[Alcarin]

Well, if that is the case then maybe Lego will make more Mr. Golds and I'll be able to finally find one for myself.

 

Its entirely possible.... 

 

I never took limited run as a fact forever, but rather a limited run for a certain time-frame (months, years)

[Locutis]

I am sorry to hear you are having such insane difficulty trying to unload any of your Limited Crawlers at all through numerous means by the sound of it. Unfortunately, I think most will see the part about not using eBay as your problem; not that I blame you. It has never been my favorite place to deal with in the past personally.

Your statement about the set itself being focused towards resellers is interesting as just who exactly has been buying up the set? That buyer only known as Max (or whatever) must be one heck of a reseller to keep buying them up in (what I would guess) an attempt to corner the market on the Limited Crawler. Who in their right mind seriously needs 200+ of any set? Is he trying to build a life size version he can drive like an actual car?

Anyway, I believe there are plenty of actual collectors wanting the Limited Crawler but the whole "Limited Edition" part is what has drawn out investors like a moth to the flame. Seeing the plastered "Only 20,000 made!" on the Lego site is like knowing beforehand the results of a horse race. Even if the odds are sketchy, you can bet just about everybody is going to gamble it all on a sure thing.

 

I analyzed Bricklink and eBay sales today for this set.

 

Here are my findings:

 

Total number sold during October (through today, Oct 15)

Bricklink:  17

eBay:  32

eBay UNSOLD:  42

 

Average price obtained:

Bricklink: $426.10

eBay:  $436.79

 

The month of September saw 77 sold through Bricklink, with an average price at $430.76.  Currently there are 193 available on Bricklink, which matches closely the total number sold to date from August 1 (meaning at the current rate of sale, those sets should last at least 6+ months before being consumed).  eBay currently has 60 sets available for purchase, which is effectively double the sold rate from Oct 1-15.  Based on the percentage of sold/unsold from Oct 1-15, I estimate that there will be 45 sold from Oct 15-31 on eBay.

 

You are correct that there is more activity on eBay, and it appears to be rising.  I did not analyze eBay September sales due to time.  Maybe someone could compile that data to compare?  Bricklink sales appear to be half in October vs. September, even though the pricing has been relatively consistent.  I still maintain I do not like eBay nor it's policies, procedures, and payment requirements.

 

However, like I said before, this set confuses me for both it's availability as a rare set (and yet lots are available on the secondary market, probably more than were bought by consumers) and it's sales rate.  Again, in my opinion, looking at the data, I see a lot of collector's simply "writing off" this set, due to the rise in price from RRP.  Perhaps the regular surge of stock available at retail is affecting the aftermarket sales rate and pricing?

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

[ausone]

Check your Lego stores for those that wants one.  Both Lego stores in Toronto (Fairview and Yorkdale) had these in stock.  The double VIP and holiday freebie makes it better then grabbing it off ebay.

[Quacs]

I dont think LEGO ever PROMISED they would only make 20.000 and never produce 1 more.... they just said they are making limited edition of 20.000 for now... they did never say no new batch anymore... I dont see that as lying.... first limitied edition was 20k now there might be more limited editions...

 

You're splitting hairs.  Lego's clear statements on the limited edition nature of this set is the same thing as a promise.  They would suffer the same repercussions from producing more than 20,000 whether they issued your "promise" or marketed the set as they have to date. 

 

It's time to give the "they're producing more than 20,000 sets" argument a rest.  There's simply no basis for it.  Could they?  Sure, they can do anything they want.  But will they? No, because there's already another 4x4 Crawler on the market!  Adding a third would be ridiculous, upset a lot of Lego fans, and have potentially devastating effects on their brand.  All to produce more of a set that's popular in large part BECAUSE of it's exclusivity?  That's absurd.

[brickfreeman]

I analyzed Bricklink and eBay sales today for this set.

 

Here are my findings:

 

Total number sold during October (through today, Oct 15)

Bricklink:  17

eBay:  32

eBay UNSOLD:  42

 

Average price obtained:

Bricklink: $426.10

eBay:  $436.79

 

The month of September saw 77 sold through Bricklink, with an average price at $430.76.  Currently there are 193 available on Bricklink, which matches closely the total number sold to date from August 1 (meaning at the current rate of sale, those sets should last at least 6+ months before being consumed).  eBay currently has 60 sets available for purchase, which is effectively double the sold rate from Oct 1-15.  Based on the percentage of sold/unsold from Oct 1-15, I estimate that there will be 45 sold from Oct 15-31 on eBay.

 

You are correct that there is more activity on eBay, and it appears to be rising.  I did not analyze eBay September sales due to time.  Maybe someone could compile that data to compare?  Bricklink sales appear to be half in October vs. September, even though the pricing has been relatively consistent.  I still maintain I do not like eBay nor it's policies, procedures, and payment requirements.

 

However, like I said before, this set confuses me for both it's availability as a rare set (and yet lots are available on the secondary market, probably more than were bought by consumers) and it's sales rate.  Again, in my opinion, looking at the data, I see a lot of collector's simply "writing off" this set, due to the rise in price from RRP.  Perhaps the regular surge of stock available at retail is affecting the aftermarket sales rate and pricing?

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

 

Thanks Loticus.  This will be a fascinating set to track over time for multiple reasons

[stephen_rockefeller]

Agreed....the only thing in play here is that Lego did not release all 20,000 at one time. All the conspiracy theorists should just pipe down.

[Ed Mack]

I analyzed Bricklink and eBay sales today for this set.

 

Here are my findings:

 

Total number sold during October (through today, Oct 15)

Bricklink:  17

eBay:  32

eBay UNSOLD:  42

 

Average price obtained:

Bricklink: $426.10

eBay:  $436.79

 

The month of September saw 77 sold through Bricklink, with an average price at $430.76.  Currently there are 193 available on Bricklink, which matches closely the total number sold to date from August 1 (meaning at the current rate of sale, those sets should last at least 6+ months before being consumed).  eBay currently has 60 sets available for purchase, which is effectively double the sold rate from Oct 1-15.  Based on the percentage of sold/unsold from Oct 1-15, I estimate that there will be 45 sold from Oct 15-31 on eBay.

 

You are correct that there is more activity on eBay, and it appears to be rising.  I did not analyze eBay September sales due to time.  Maybe someone could compile that data to compare?  Bricklink sales appear to be half in October vs. September, even though the pricing has been relatively consistent.  I still maintain I do not like eBay nor it's policies, procedures, and payment requirements.

 

However, like I said before, this set confuses me for both it's availability as a rare set (and yet lots are available on the secondary market, probably more than were bought by consumers) and it's sales rate.  Again, in my opinion, looking at the data, I see a lot of collector's simply "writing off" this set, due to the rise in price from RRP.  Perhaps the regular surge of stock available at retail is affecting the aftermarket sales rate and pricing?

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

There are a couple angles here...

 

One...People heard the rumors of more sets becoming available so they waited to buy.  As you can see, the rumors were true.  More are available.  These sets will rise nicely after all the hub-bub of LEGO releasing more sets is over with.

 

Two...It is a Technic set.  It is a kick butt Technic set, but it is still a Technic set.  Some people love them...some don't.  There is a whole faction of fans that just don't care for Technic, so the demand might not be as strong as with non-Technic sets.

[fredrick_louis]

The units showing up at Lego Store are probably return units. The ones I saw at my local lego store were damaged. I do not think Lego are manufacturing more units.

[Locutis]

The units showing up at Lego Store are probably return units. The ones I saw at my local lego store were damaged. I do not think Lego are manufacturing more units.

 

I think they are a mixture of returns and some new stock.  I do not believe Lego manufactured all 20,000 at the same time.  If they did, though, they may have divided them up by how they thought they would sell, and the rate of sale for how they divided them up surprised them.  In that scenario, they may have cross-shipped some sets from markets that were not selling as well into markets that are.

 

The conspiracy theorists who insinuate (or worse) that Lego has or will make more of these 20,000 sets is ludicrous.  To even entertain the idea that a multi-billion dollar, multi-national corporation would risk their reputation for a few thousand dollars...  

 

Perhaps you could see TLG release another rare one in dark red instead of dark blue, but they would never release more than 20,000 of this set.  

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

[Coneil21]

If anyone is on long island i just grabbed one at Roosevelt Field. It was the only one on the shelf, but I asked if there were more and I was told there are a few in the back.

Also, I used my VIP card and it was no prob, even though I had already bought a couple from Lego.

[Quacs]

 

The conspiracy theorists who insinuate (or worse) that Lego has or will make more of these 20,000 sets is ludicrous.  To even entertain the idea that a multi-billion dollar, multi-national corporation would risk their reputation for a few thousand dollars...  

 

Perhaps you could see TLG release another rare one in dark red instead of dark blue, but they would never release more than 20,000 of this set.  

 

Agreed - Lego is not going to risk their reputation based to make a relatively small amount of money.  Another release of 20,000 @ $200 would gross $4M.  This from a company that made a profit of over $1B?  No way.

 

 

I analyzed Bricklink and eBay sales today for this set.

 

Here are my findings:

 

Total number sold during October (through today, Oct 15)

Bricklink:  17

eBay:  32

eBay UNSOLD:  42

 

Average price obtained:

Bricklink: $426.10

eBay:  $436.79

 

The month of September saw 77 sold through Bricklink, with an average price at $430.76.  Currently there are 193 available on Bricklink, which matches closely the total number sold to date from August 1 (meaning at the current rate of sale, those sets should last at least 6+ months before being consumed).  eBay currently has 60 sets available for purchase, which is effectively double the sold rate from Oct 1-15.  Based on the percentage of sold/unsold from Oct 1-15, I estimate that there will be 45 sold from Oct 15-31 on eBay.

 

You are correct that there is more activity on eBay, and it appears to be rising.  I did not analyze eBay September sales due to time.  Maybe someone could compile that data to compare?  Bricklink sales appear to be half in October vs. September, even though the pricing has been relatively consistent.  I still maintain I do not like eBay nor it's policies, procedures, and payment requirements.

 

However, like I said before, this set confuses me for both it's availability as a rare set (and yet lots are available on the secondary market, probably more than were bought by consumers) and it's sales rate.  Again, in my opinion, looking at the data, I see a lot of collector's simply "writing off" this set, due to the rise in price from RRP.  Perhaps the regular surge of stock available at retail is affecting the aftermarket sales rate and pricing?

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

 

 

Let's try to put some more numbers to the discussion:

 

Total sets - 20,000

Estimated # of sets released before yesterday's next wave: 10,000

 

Total sold on eBay, September: 421

Total sold on eBay, August: 388

Total sold on Bricklink: 208

Total sold eBay/Bricklink: 1,017

 

This doesn't account for Craigslist or Kijiji sales, but I wouldn't put these at any meaningful volume.  I have seen anecdotally that Chicago's CL may have sold 1 or 2 since its release, so perhaps we can conservatively assume 83 sold on CL/K/other outlets to even out a grand total of 1,100 flips, or 11% of the total current sales. 

 

You mentioned that eBay and BL shows roughly 250 sets currently for sale.  That brings the total flipper quantity to 1,350 sets, still only 13.5% of quantity sold.

 

To me, that's not a lot.  If Lego has only released 5,000 to date, the total flip purchase % increases to 27%.  This is not an inconsequential number, but still not an overwhelming majority.  If they've released 15,000 already, you're only looking at 6.75% of total current sales, an even less significant number. 

 

My guess is the overwhelming majority of these have gone to Technic fans that knew they would have to jump on this set fast in order to ensure they didn't have to pay way above retail for a once-in-a-lifetime Technic set.  My guess is that most of the "unflipped" sets etiher have been or will be opened.  

 

I would guess that once it goes officially EOL on Lego.com, you will see the price begin to creep up further, but as Ed said there are some potential caps on Technic sets.  First, while a popular theme, Technic has never been a "blow the doors off" theme, and the post-retirement market for Technic sets isn't nearly the same size as the Star Wars/UCS market (as an example).  That will likely cap returns.  Also, Power Function sets can be intimidating to a group of Lego fans, so again your market will be smaller still.

 

I'll leave you with this thought: if yesterday's wave is the last release of the 20,000 (let's say 15,000 had been released previously and 5,000 are being released now), and we extrapolate the current numbers with current percentages, you're looking at a total "flip" quantity of 1,800 of the 20,000 released.  That means 18,200 are either being held for "investment" or opened.  While some of the 1,800 will also be sold for investment, we're still talking about a fairly small percentage of the 20,000 total.

[asharerin]

I already sold my stack of crawlers and every one went to a reseller. There must be demand for end users of these things in europe and asia somewhere. I would have liked to see demand for end users in the USA as well but technic just does not have significant demand here. It will be interesting to see where these end up in 5 years.

[metsrock507]

Agreed - Lego is not going to risk their reputation based to make a relatively small amount of money.  Another release of 20,000 @ $200 would gross $4M.  This from a company that made a profit of over $1B?  No way.

 

 

 

 

Let's try to put some more numbers to the discussion:

 

Total sets - 20,000

Estimated # of sets released before yesterday's next wave: 10,000

 

Total sold on eBay, September: 421

Total sold on eBay, August: 388

Total sold on Bricklink: 208

Total sold eBay/Bricklink: 1,017

 

This doesn't account for Craigslist or Kijiji sales, but I wouldn't put these at any meaningful volume.  I have seen anecdotally that Chicago's CL may have sold 1 or 2 since its release, so perhaps we can conservatively assume 83 sold on CL/K/other outlets to even out a grand total of 1,100 flips, or 11% of the total current sales. 

 

You mentioned that eBay and BL shows roughly 250 sets currently for sale.  That brings the total flipper quantity to 1,350 sets, still only 13.5% of quantity sold.

 

To me, that's not a lot.  If Lego has only released 5,000 to date, the total flip purchase % increases to 27%.  This is not an inconsequential number, but still not an overwhelming majority.  If they've released 15,000 already, you're only looking at 6.75% of total current sales, an even less significant number. 

 

My guess is the overwhelming majority of these have gone to Technic fans that knew they would have to jump on this set fast in order to ensure they didn't have to pay way above retail for a once-in-a-lifetime Technic set.  My guess is that most of the "unflipped" sets etiher have been or will be opened.  

 

I would guess that once it goes officially EOL on Lego.com, you will see the price begin to creep up further, but as Ed said there are some potential caps on Technic sets.  First, while a popular theme, Technic has never been a "blow the doors off" theme, and the post-retirement market for Technic sets isn't nearly the same size as the Star Wars/UCS market (as an example).  That will likely cap returns.  Also, Power Function sets can be intimidating to a group of Lego fans, so again your market will be smaller still.

 

I'll leave you with this thought: if yesterday's wave is the last release of the 20,000 (let's say 15,000 had been released previously and 5,000 are being released now), and we extrapolate the current numbers with current percentages, you're looking at a total "flip" quantity of 1,800 of the 20,000 released.  That means 18,200 are either being held for "investment" or opened.  While some of the 1,800 will also be sold for investment, we're still talking about a fairly small percentage of the 20,000 total.

you didn't include international ebay sales... in on ebay.co.uk alone another 150 were sold.

[BearCrash]

you didn't include international ebay sales... in on ebay.co.uk alone another 150 were sold.

 

On the other hand, you didn't take into account the fact that one single set could have been sold on eBay several times.

[BricksR4kids]

Lynwood wa store has one... Just grabbed one myself