Do newest modulars still have investing potential?

[M4x18]

I know that probably this has been talked about a lot over here. But it just kicked me this morning, with all the frenzy going on about Lego investing and being the modular sets one of the flagships of this trend made me wonder, is it really worth it to invest in a set that will be owned by a LOT of people? I know that different facts come into this, shelf time one of the most important ones, but having in mind that Grand Emporium and the Fire Brigade are still out there (words come and go about these two going EOL pretty soon but we've been hearing them for a while now) and assuming that all the newest modulars will follow the same path, won't every one who has heard about Lego investing spend some dough on some of these? The Pet Shop will hit the 2 year mark in less than two months and I bet that over 50% of those who read this post has at least one of these stored away. And I at least, have heard nothing about this one going away soon. Let's say, for example, that the new modulars will have an estimated shelf time of about 3-4 years. Can you imagine how many people will have an opportunity to put some money in them? And more importantly, how long would we have to hold on to them to make a decent profit out of them? Wouldn't it be wiser to invest in some "short-lived", proven or very likely to be winner themes such as Harry Potter, LOTR or even Star Wars? I thought about this for a while and concluded what also most of you must've realized: paying retail for these is out of the question, and still, even with a significant discount, the time you must hang on to these set along with the space they take could make this investment one to look at several times before jumping in. At least for me will go that way from now on. The ones that I will buy will be to build with my wife. And wear as a hat as I don't have any more room at home !

[Alcarin]

I know that probably this has been talked about a lot over here.

But it just kicked me this morning, with all the frenzy going on about Lego investing and being the modular sets one of the flagships of this trend made me wonder, is it really worth it to invest in a set that will be owned by a LOT of people?

I know that different facts come into this, shelf time one of the most important ones, but having in mind that Grand Emporium and the Fire Brigade are still out there (words come and go about these two going EOL pretty soon but we've been hearing them for a while now) and assuming that all the newest modulars will follow the same path, won't every one who has heard about Lego investing spend some dough on some of these? The Pet Shop will hit the 2 year mark in less than two months and I bet that over 50% of those who read this post has at least one of these stored away. And I at least, have heard nothing about this one going away soon.

Let's say, for example, that the new modulars will have an estimated shelf time of about 3-4 years. Can you imagine how many people will have an opportunity to put some money in them? And more importantly, how long would we have to hold on to them to make a decent profit out of them? Wouldn't it be wiser to invest in some "short-lived", proven or very likely to be winner themes such as Harry Potter, LOTR or even Star Wars?

I thought about this for a while and concluded what also most of you must've realized: paying retail for these is out of the question, and still, even with a significant discount, the time you must hang on to these set along with the space they take could make this investment one to look at several times before jumping in. At least for me will go that way from now on. The ones that I will buy will be to build with my wife. And wear as a hat as I don't have any more room at home !

Exactly... While I personally will not invest in any MODULARS that are MRRP ed ABOVE 160

[sadowsk1]

I don't see the harm in buying modulars so long as you can get them on discount. I think the potential will always be there as Lego fans are created everyday. I don't think the gains will as great anymore as previous modulars that had shorter shelf lives but I think they will always retain their value and slowly gain. I wouldn't say it's a quick flip but they have potential. If nothing else a person has to ask themself what is a better investment than the modulars? What will have long term value? I don't think any of the modulars are soon to be repeated anytime soon like Star Wars remakes so there is something to be said about a unique stylized creation.

[Blackjack]

I was just thinking of starting this thread the other day! I don't think that there will be another GG because of the investment hype around them, but they still look like good investment in the long run.

[TheDarkness]

Right now I think they have such a long shelf life that it will take awhile for things to get started. I don't think it will reach the heights of the previous sets, because most people who are now into the modular wave will have acquired them. I definitely expect other sets to make more significant gains early. Still, if you have the space, time, cashflow and patience, nothing wrong with sitting on a couple and seeing how they go.

[stephen_rockefeller]

I was just thinking of starting this thread the other day! I don't think that there will be another GG because of the investment hype around them, but they still look like good investment in the long run.

Fact!!

[Rich B]

Fact!!

Yep, I feel the same way! The FB will go up in value eventually, but it will probably never hit GG numbers. I could see the FB doubling in value eventually but it is going to take quite a long time IMO.

[M4x18]

I was just thinking of starting this thread the other day! I don't think that there will be another GG because of the investment hype around them, but they still look like good investment in the long run.

As TheDarkness stated, shelf life along with the hype won't allow another GG or CC from coming around.

How long is the "long run"? 10+ years and it's still a toss up? I think I'll pass.

[Huskers1236]

As others have said, you won't see any returns like the CC or GG, those days are gone. The modulars will make people money, their too nice not to. People will always come out of their "dark ages" and want them. The difference as has been pointed out is that the market will be flooded with them when the go EOL of investors trying to make a quick flip that the prices will remain low for a while. I would have to guess it's going to take 5+ years after EOL to see much profit if you're looking to double your money. If you bought your Pet Shop, Fire Brigade, or Emporium on sale, you'll be able to flip them that much faster if you're wanting to double up. I know, Captain Obvious to the rescue!!

[Rich B]

As others have said, you won't see any returns like the CC or GG, those days are gone. The modulars will make people money, their too nice not to. People will always come out of their "dark ages" and want them. The difference as has been pointed out is that the market will be flooded with them when the go EOL of investors trying to make a quick flip that the prices will remain low for a while. I would have to guess it's going to take 5+ years after EOL to see much profit if you're looking to double your money. If you bought your Pet Shop, Fire Brigade, or Emporium on sale, you'll be able to flip them that much faster if you're wanting to double up. I know, Captain Obvious to the rescue!!

Yep very true, this is the same thing I'm noticing with the MMV right now. Very slow growth due to oversupply and long shelf life, but it still looks to slowly be increasing in value. I do think sets like the FB could have an even slower aftermarket growth pattern than the MMV though. Guess we'll find out if the FB ever goes EOL.

[gregpj]

I love the modular buildings and while it's harder to find a good deal up here in Canada, that also means they have good resale potential in Canada if you find them for a sort-of-good deal in the US. Sometimes I think of my Lego investment as money that may not make me rich, but as more of a sure-fire way to not lose money. I expect that some of my purchases may never double in value, but I'm betting they never sell for less than what I paid. My partner has a great pension, I buy RRSPs and we buy RESPs for our kids... But they all have the potential to tank because they are invested in stocks (the pension is "guaranteed" but at the end of the day it could get hit hard some day). The Lego I have stored will always be worth something. I also subscribe (for the most part) to the buy what you like so quite frankly if some of the modulars never make me money, I'll just give them to my kids when they're all grown up!

[Anakinisvader]

I have a few modulars but don't think there is much room for increase for 5+ years. At least not enought to sell them with all the fee's and shipping costs. I think with all the hype on modulars now I am going to stay away. Everybody and their dog is going to be holding on to at least one Fire Brigage, Pet Shop, and yes, even the Death Star. I may be in the minority here but I just don't see much gain on them now with many people already either owning one or invensting in one. On a similar note TLG should start re issuing old ones with different elements. Maybe the Blue Grocier or Red Grocier?

[chihuahualawyer]

It will definitely tie up your money for awhile...

[Grolim]

To me it comes down to three factors, demand, supply, and purchase price. For modulars the demand will be high, but so will supply - in my opinion evening out to a solid but modest investment return. So can I get the set a a decent purchase price on discount? If yes then I would invest.