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76405 - Hogwarts Express Collector's Edition


Gonkalin

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On 8/30/2022 at 10:55 AM, Shewie said:

LEGO UK already in internal memo is reporting that Lion Knight's Castle is a tough sell. Post GWP period 10305 sales almost dried up.

 

11 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Surprisingly Limit 3

 

6 hours ago, Shewie said:

It was 2 at 8AM UK time, then increased to 3 at 10 and increased to 5ppc around 1PM UK time.

Not a single unit sold on ebay.co.uk as well which used to be a quiet a ritual in the past that some overpriced sets were shifted on the day one on ebay.co.uk - nothing today. Not a single box.
Interest on this set dried up quickly after the price announcement. 

I think there is a much bigger theme to this.

I actually like both these sets.  I wish the train would have been made power and track compatible.

yea lego's price increase effect things and yea some people don't like the design.

But more importantly when you have rampant inflation and serious energy issues going on something has to give

I think you will see this effect rolling across many more sets and its not just lego.

I think $400 + lego sets are not on the menu for most people right now.

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Lego has seen the steady increase in demand and has correspondingly increased their output of sets both in quantity and $$ amount. In the last half year sales have slowed. This can be seen by anyone selling on amazon. sales are down both in quantity and $$$. 

There will be lots of clearance this year in the big boxes. Many sales. Weve already seen lego uncharacteristically give 20/30/40% off sales here in august. It is the canary in the coal mine. And that is if we stay at current economic levels. Should we fall further in recession, all bets are off.

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On 8/30/2022 at 10:55 AM, Shewie said:

Tomorrow is the signing event at Leicester Square between 5-6PM UK time. There will be no GWP with the purchase. 2 Units per customer. Will be surprised to see gatherings around.
LEGO UK already in internal memo is reporting that Lion Knight's Castle is a tough sell. Post GWP period 10305 sales almost dried up.

Not surprised about the Castle. I haven't it even bought it yet. How the heck do you not offer the Forestman GWP with it and also jack up the psychological price point?!

They had a really good thing going on with the $300 price point. It worked for Day-1ers like myself and the flippers waiting EOL to buy 10 at a 30-40% discount.

The Express at $300 would be an easy Day 1 for me (lower the piece count and just keep the box size big for all I care).

I knew these last 5 years were golden and would eventually end soon. I foresee internal costs being cut (there goes the talent), less sets/themes being produced, and the quality of material (including the boxes) dimensioning.

I believe they will fight tooth and nail not to discount prices to the very end. Once that transpires, all the bad things above will be set in motion, and 2024 will be a very strange year

F-ing LEGO.

 

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21 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

LEGO has over-reached.

Like a lot of companies lately following their Covid boom.

How they respond...will it be a correction or an over-correction?

Hot chance we see this on a significant sale this November in my opinion. I'm guessing $350 or potentially even less considering how poorly it will likely move. Similar to how the Disney train went on a very early sale.

34 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Wow, read the reviews on Lego.  It is the new bubble thread ;) 

I think there is an argument that there could be a bit of a bubble forming. Since the creation of this site, we haven't really experienced a fundamental recession, as 2020 actually ended up benefiting Lego sales significantly. So it will be telling as to how things play out as Lego appears to be getting into the gouging business too. As resellers we are all seen as scum of the earth, so my question is how will the community view Lego doing something quite similar?

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On 8/31/2022 at 4:23 PM, Bricklectic said:

Lego has seen the steady increase in demand and has correspondingly increased their output of sets both in quantity and $$ amount. In the last half year sales have slowed. This can be seen by anyone selling on amazon. sales are down both in quantity and $$$. 

There will be lots of clearance this year in the big boxes. Many sales. Weve already seen lego uncharacteristically give 20/30/40% off sales here in august. It is the canary in the coal mine. And that is if we stay at current economic levels. Should we fall further in recession, all bets are off.

This is not just LEGO. Most retailers inventories are overflowing after an overreaction to supply chain shortages. Now, with a recession looming, people are spending less. This is a perfect storm for deflation. There will be massive sales on almost all consumer goods this year. Black Friday will be something to remember. There will be blowout prices. 

Retailers urgently need to unload inventories to cut down on massive warehousing costs. Once the overproduced stock has been depleted the retailers will slow down orders of new goods from China, thus beginning a major slow down in world manufacturing. At this point the real recession begins. 

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5 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Wow, read the reviews on Lego.  It is the new bubble thread ;) 

this ones a gem. great line at the end.

"Looks spectacular, but i feel they have ignored a large portion of train enthusiasts but not designing it with the intent for motorised play or integration with their rail tracks. Just to reiterate - this does not work on standard rails, its for display not play. Also the price along with the recent "price adjustment" store wide is a little steep. Good bye 90 years of play and hello to the next 90 years of pay."

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I did not realize that 25% of the parts go towards the “useless and repetitive” track build. Since it can’t be motorized and doesn’t fit on lego train tracks they could have eliminated the display track and lowered the price or added another passenger car or made a more robust platform. 

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i think thats an spectacular set. I really love this great set. 

Because it is really unique and big at the same time. Moreover, some scenes are really great realised in this set. You can also read a great review of the set here. (unfortunately only in German: 76405 Review)
I'm already looking forward to it when it hopefully comes out in the shops and becomes a bit cheaper. Does anyone know when it will be available in Germany?

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  • exciter1 changed the title to 76405 - Hogwarts Express Collector's Edition

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