M4x18 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 You remember that one time where you had buyers remorse and returned 2 of the 3 9465 you bought from a local retailer at 10% over MSRP after it had disappeared from the LEGO Shop at Home page? Well, probably you don't but I do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I was just looking at one of my last copies of 9465 and it finally hit me. This may well be the last true sleeper hit. The one set no-one cared about until all of the sudden it disappeared from the shelves. The one with potential to reach 6x MSRP after retirement. It seems that nowadays everything is tracked, monitored, and stockpiled. If one is not, just one mention on BP and it becomes one. Plus, any sign of shortage and everyone just cannot wait to undercut everyone else. The competition is just getting too fierce. This NOT a rant, just a mere observation. Although, it is time to re-asses and adjust I agree for a retail store (non-exclusive) set. Just when people starting buying MF sets for Halloween 2012, this set was pretty much gone from all US Target stores. It really only had 2-3 months are wide availability. I was hoping the Target Coast Plane plane would follow suit but it never did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Yeah, I noticed the term Exclusive was no longer synonymous with limited availability. Quite the opposite is true actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensche Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I have one in my possession. Should I sell? Or keep it for the long run? Here in Europe the price is dropping. Dunno why. The price is not dropping. There were only a few sold for the last couple of months and the remaining sellers raised the price to high, no one bought it at that price so now they are going to drop the price again to its former niveau... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The price is not dropping. There were only a few sold for the last couple of months and the remaining sellers raised the price to high, no one bought it at that price so now they are going to drop the price again to its former niveau... yeah, the price isn't dropping. it has stabilized though. The Jan 2014 selling price on eBay was around $140 plus postage or $150 w/ postage. It's hovering around $200 now plus postage (on avg). The recent price dip was (in the US) was due to people selling lower than market price from Aug to Sept. http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=9465-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zskid00 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 (edited) I was just looking at one of my last copies of 9465 and it finally hit me. This may well be the last true sleeper hit. The one set no-one cared about until all of the sudden it disappeared from the shelves. I'm not so sure nobody cared about this one, but when was the last time a non-LEGO store exclusive set was only available for 3 months? The short run on this set was just absurd and quite an anomaly compared to 99% of the sets produced by LEGO, especially those available to a major brick and mortar retailer. I don't think it has anything to do with how the LEGO investing landscape has changed over the last couple years. This one was a special case. Edited October 20, 2014 by zskid00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I was just looking at one of my last copies of 9465 and it finally hit me. This may well be the last true sleeper hit. The one set no-one cared about until all of the sudden it disappeared from the shelves. The one with potential to reach 6x MSRP after retirement. It seems that nowadays everything is tracked, monitored, and stockpiled. If one is not, just one mention on BP and it becomes one. Plus, any sign of shortage and everyone just cannot wait to undercut everyone else. The competition is just getting too fierce. This NOT a rant, just a mere observation. Although, it is time to re-asses and adjust Others are out there. Silence about certain sets is almost as deafening as the talk about others. The smart investor will do some deep digging, and find those sets that are sleepers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I'm not so sure nobody cared about this one, but when was the last time a non-LEGO store exclusive set was only available for 3 months? The short run on this set was just absurd and quite an anomaly compared to 99% of the sets produced by LEGO, especially those available to a major brick and mortar retailer. I don't think it has anything to do with how the LEGO investing landscape has changed over the last couple years. This one was a special case. There were precedence, I was just too dumb to realize. By the time I caught on, it was not the same anymore. Others are out there. Silence about certain sets is almost as deafening as the talk about others. The smart investor will do some deep digging, and find those sets that are sleepers. If everything else fails, there will always be the Daily Deals threads :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolanfan34 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Others are out there. Silence about certain sets is almost as deafening as the talk about others. The smart investor will do some deep digging, and find those sets that are sleepers. Grand Emporium right? :-p I love thinking about this stuff, I can waste hours driving myself nuts trying to figure it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Grand Emporium right? :-p I love thinking about this stuff, I can waste hours driving myself nuts trying to figure it out. Sure, GE. Exactly. (Not like that set hasn't been talked to death!) You've got a long trip coming up. Plenty of time to ponder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I'm not so sure nobody cared about this one, but when was the last time a non-LEGO store exclusive set was only available for 3 months? The short run on this set was just absurd and quite an anomaly compared to 99% of the sets produced by LEGO, especially those available to a major brick and mortar retailer. I don't think it has anything to do with how the LEGO investing landscape has changed over the last couple years. This one was a special case. Yes, Pretty much no one cared about this set until it became obvious that it was gone. Even back in late Oct 2012, many of us were unsuccessful finding these in stores. There hasn't been another non-exclusive set like this to my knowledge. 3 months,,, wow. It appears Target only wanted a small amount and Lego didn't want to make more to supply their own stores. There were some exclusive sets extremely limited retail availability like 41999 and the RI up to this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Others are out there. Silence about certain sets is almost as deafening as the talk about others. The smart investor will do some deep digging, and find those sets that are sleepers. Ok, I'm calling you out Which ones? Your post is too opened ended. Let go with 6 months or less. One of us then create a thread about extremely short retail availability sets like this one, 41999, Holiday Train, etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOrcKing Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I cannot have been the only person when this set was available who checked every single day the Target website or store whenever nearby to see if it had any in stock like a man possessed. I mean there are things one can live with or shrug off but this was a must have. I would imagine others shared my, um, 'dedication'. :whistle: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I cannot have been the only person when this set was available who checked every single day the Target website or store whenever nearby to see if it had any in stock like a man possessed. I mean there are things one can live with or shrug off but this was a must have. I would imagine others shared my, um, 'dedication'. I purchased the cheaper sets in Sept 2012 for my son but thought this wS overpriced at $40. I just started investing in late Nov 2012. Where there signs to jump on this sign? At that time, were retired Target exclusives doing well? Heck, what did I know then. NOTHING. Only if I had my 2014 Lego knowledge back when this set was out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I cannot have been the only person when this set was available who checked every single day the Target website or store whenever nearby to see if it had any in stock like a man possessed. I mean there are things one can live with or shrug off but this was a must have. I would imagine others shared my, um, 'dedication'. I was fortunate to get one when they were on-sale for $29.99. I wanted one bad, but I waited for a deal, as usual. Of course, I didn't realize they would disappear shortly afterward, so I only got one and it's still sealed. I now have a fear of opening it. I guess I should figure out if I want to sell this thing or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Lol I kind of regret selling a few of these for $100 around Christmas 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettj666 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Lol I kind of regret selling a few of these for $100 around Christmas 2012 why do you regret it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 why do you regret it? I could have hold those for a few more months and sold them for $180 in 2013. Hindsight is 20/20 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettj666 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I could have hold those for a few more months and sold them for $180 in 2013. Hindsight is 20/20 Ahh, therein lies the rub.. If you regret selling things for less in the past, then you run into a conundrum. As time goes on, just give inflation, you will always get more in the future.. So, in 300 years, your set may be the only one still sealed and you could get $500,000 for it, thus it's best never to sell, ever. don't regret things, it made sense for you at the time or you wouldn't have done it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Thanks for the concern. I put "kind of" up above as I usually do not look back. This one set warrants a special look (at least a little) since not many sets can grow from $40 to $180 in such a short time :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Ok, I'm calling you out Which ones? Your post is too opened ended. Let go with 6 months or less. One of us then create a thread about extremely short retail availability sets like this one, 41999, Holiday Train, etc... I can't give a time frame - I don't know when things will retire. But there are plenty of sets that aren't talked about much. Triple-E, Fairground Mixer, Metal Beard's Sea Cow, Winter Village Market, SW Microfighters, the Ghost. It comes down to your goal. Are you happy with 2x RRP or more? Which sets are likely to do that? Big sets give you a bigger pay day. But little sets have just as much chance. Look at RI. It's definitely going for more the 2x RRP. That set wasn't talked about much until launch, when they were impossible to get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I can't give a time frame - I don't know when things will retire. But there are plenty of sets that aren't talked about much. Triple-E, Fairground Mixer, Metal Beard's Sea Cow, Winter Village Market, SW Microfighters, It comes down to your goal. Are you happy with 2x RRP or more? Which sets are likely to do that? Big sets give you a bigger pay day. But little sets have just as much chance. Look at RI. It's definitely going for more the 2x RRP. That set wasn't talked about much until launch, when they were impossible to get. oh , i gotcha now. i clearly misunderstood. thought you meant we had a few retirement with short lifespans since this set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 oh , i gotcha now. i clearly misunderstood. thought you meant we had a few retirement with short lifespans since this set. Oh, okay. No, I'm talking about other sets that have the potential to be flying under the radar, because people aren't talking about them. I would have thrown TH into the mix, but with all the attention it's gotten over the last couple of weeks, that's out the window. Now, if it is truly retired, then yes. But I don't believe that it's retired, and I believe we'll see more by January. It's now too well known to be in the sleeper category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zskid00 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 (edited) It's now too well known to be in the sleeper category. But if it's done I would say it really was a sleeper. Nobody was talking about it until it hit sold out status on the Shop at Home website and it was unexpected. Edited October 21, 2014 by zskid00 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 But if it's done I would say it really was a sleeper. Nobody was talking about it until it hit sold out status on the Shop at Home website and it was unexpected. I agree. That's why I even mentioned it. Yes, if it's truly retired, then it qualifies as a sleeper. But, if it's not retired, not a sleeper (anymore). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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