9465 - The Zombies

[Grolim]

I still have a positive outlook for the set.  Growth may slow, but it won't be shut off like a tap.  There are still plenty of people buying them to create MoCs and zombie armies.  Two things I'll be watching closely are the Halloween effect and when the tv show the Walking Dead returns.

 

I'd much rather buy a market price 9465 right now than something like a Tower Bridge or Death Star.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Probably not my place to nitpick but his screen name is ja is online; not Jason. I have a feeling he'll tell you so in a minute.

 

I used to think Jason was his name as well for a long time!

[TheOrcKing]

I used to think Jason was his name as well for a long time!

I did too at first until 'the correction'.

I'd much rather buy a market price 9465 right now than something like a Tower Bridge or Death Star.

A hundred trillion, four billion, seventy nine million, six hundred and sixty six thousand, and two times yes!

[Diabolos80]

I'm not swayed. I don't think builders are going to pay $200+ for a small set and 3 zombies.

[Anakinisvader]

My prediction:  Zombies will be back as Targets Black Friday promotion.  Then Candace will tell Phineas:  It's going down... down, down, down.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Probably not my place to nitpick but his screen name is ja is online; not Jason. I have a feeling he'll tell you so in a minute.

 

Yeah - well I have Dyslexia so I hope you feel good about yourself now. PICKING ON THE DISEASED!

 

I just read is at jasonline. But I forgot how usernames mostly make sense. lol

[TheOrcKing]

Yeah - well I have Dyslexia so I hope you feel good about yourself now. PICKING ON THE DISEASED!

Yeah well, I suffer from a strong case of CRS - Can't Remember S**t.

Anyway, I was hardly picking on you, goofball.

[Ed Mack]

I think The Zombies is a perfect example of investors buying from flippers. It's done.

I have a tendency to agree with this.  As I stated earlier, this set is similar in many ways to The Burrow, which was thought to be on the fast track to $300 and has slowed considerably.  The Burrow is slightly larger and has 2 more minifigures, but some were rare in both sets and both production runs were short.  I think many investors are just buying from other investors and propping up this market.  

 

I respectfully disagree with previous comments about paying $200 for this set in comparison to a larger set still in production.  I would buy a 4000 piece Tower Bridge any day of the week instead of a $200 400 piece set that might be reach $300.  I can guarantee the Tower Bridge hitting the $300 mark about a month after EOL.  

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I have a tendency to agree with this.  As I stated earlier, this set is similar in many ways to The Burrow, which was thought to be on the fast track to $300 and has slowed considerably.  The Burrow is slightly larger and has 2 more minifigures, but some were rare in both sets and both production runs were short.  I think many investors are just buying from other investors and propping up this market.  

 

I respectfully disagree with previous comments about paying $200 for this set in comparison to a larger set still in production.  I would buy a 4000 piece Tower Bridge any day of the week instead of a $200 400 piece set that might be reach $300.  I can guarantee the Tower Bridge hitting the $300 mark about a month after EOL.  

 

It may be investors buying from investors - I feel like I will hopefully be able to get my money back out if need be. Really the easiest way to find out if this is true is look at auctions. BIN will always go higher than auctions - but your auctions are somewhat truer of the actual worth. If the auction price is extremely lower than the BIN average, you see your problem.

 

I have seen the auctions hit over the BP price - which is why I feel confident it still has some growth.

 

If you look back, there are precedents for paying prices like this. - 4756 Shreiking Shack was about the same size and is over $200 - Graveyard duel 4766 is over $250 after being 29.99 retail, and 4767 is smaller and is around $300.

 

I am sure there are more out there. You all definitely have a point and it could go either way. I just want to be part of it. lol

[Grolim]

I respectfully disagree with previous comments about paying $200 for this set in comparison to a larger set still in production.  I would buy a 4000 piece Tower Bridge any day of the week instead of a $200 400 piece set that might be reach $300.  I can guarantee the Tower Bridge hitting the $300 mark about a month after EOL.  

 

 

Why not do both?  Buy this set and enjoy any growth that is still left before selling it just before Tower Bridge goes EOL and putting the capital into that?  

[Diabolos80]

I doubt it's fair to compare Zombies to licensed sets. Harry Potter is part of the zeitgeist now, and its rarity in Lego will make it every bit as desirable as Indy or Star Wars. Monster Fighters doesn't have that kind of pull.

On the other hand, HP sets didn't come with zombies. Dead husband and wife zombies. The macabre theme of the set is so unusual, it really is a world apart from most Lego. I don't blame you for wanting in on it just to see what happens.

But even if it hits those HP numbers along the same timeline, there are quicker gains to be had right now, I think.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

But even if it hits those HP numbers along the same timeline, there are quicker gains to be had right now, I think.

 

I would definitely agree with this - I just like to diversify. Maybe this one bucks every trend and stays at 230% CAGR until the end of time!!! 

 

It will be worth - eleventy billion dollars!

[Grolim]

Looking at the price graph for this set it's a pretty clear case of used set sales occurring after a large new set price jump as people most likely switch from wanting a new set to a cheaper used one as we move up the price scale.  Used sets have jumped hugely in recent months.  That has probably cannibalized the growth of new sets a good deal.

[Ed Mack]

If you look back, there are precedents for paying prices like this. - 4756 Shreiking Shack was about the same size and is over $200 - Graveyard duel 4766 is over $250 after being 29.99 retail, and 4767 is smaller and is around $300.

The Graveyard Duel is a decent comparison, but that had EIGHT minifigures and the Shrieking Shack was released in 2004. The question is not whether the set was a good investment at $50 or $100, it's whether it is at $150 or more. Even if you buy the set at $150 at it goes up to $250, taking away fees, is it worth it? Don't you think any modular, even the Fire Brigade, will hit $250 in a similar time frame? Plus, you always have those extra 1600+ pieces to mess around with. Like I said, I want the set to hit astronomical levels, but just don't see it "consistently" selling for more than $250.

[kerrmando]

I think this set can still grow some but why invest in it if not for personal collection? Why not find another 30-40 dollar set that will double or triple and just buy five of those instead?

[Ed Mack]

I think this set can still grow some but why invest in it if not for personal collection? Why not find another 30-40 dollar set that will double or triple and just buy five of those instead?

Right.  If you want to buy it to complete the MF theme, then it is worth it.  But as an investment right now, someone else made most of the money.  

[kerrmando]

Right.  If you want to buy it to complete the MF theme, then it is worth it.  But as an investment right now, someone else made most of the money.  

Yup, pretty much for me the only sets I bought lots of after EOL were Harry Potter sets, and those at only slightly inflated prices. I just can't justify buying more of this set as an investment when I know I could get three Hulk break outs, or six wolverine chopper showdowns, or 12-13 Cap America's and watch the money double and triple so much faster. I have three of these Zombie sets, I'll keep one forever and sell the other two when they get to 200 bucks. I paid half of retail for them so either way not a huge deal. 

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

The Graveyard Duel is a decent comparison, but that had EIGHT minifigures and the Shrieking Shack was released in 2004. The question is not whether the set was a good investment at $50 or $100, it's whether it is at $150 or more. Even if you buy the set at $150 at it goes up to $250, taking away fees, is it worth it? Don't you think any modular, even the Fire Brigade, will hit $250 in a similar time frame? Plus, you always have those extra 1600+ pieces to mess around with. Like I said, I want the set to hit astronomical levels, but just don't see it "consistently" selling for more than $250.

 

That is an absolutely fair point. I am not really encouraging others to invest. And I agree its a crap shoot at $150. I got in at $115. I look at it this way - This is a known quatitiy. People want it and it has grown. is it guaranteed? Not at all. But up until now it has a stellar performance in the secondary market. I got in well enough under the current price so that I should be able to get my money back away from something catastrophic.

 

Looking at how this set has grown, there isn't much chance it will continue at that pace. But some sets have done this and I felt like I would like to diversify and try it out to see what happens. If this does hit $250, I will be able to pull $100 out of my investment which isn't bad at all considering. Plus investing in already retired sets is somewhat more relaxing - they are gone (unless they are redone) so you don't have to guess what's happening.

 

I think this set can still grow some but why invest in it if not for personal collection? Why not find another 30-40 dollar set that will double or triple and just buy five of those instead?

 

I would agree with this except, do you know of any set that you can definitely say will triple in value? Just like you, I have some thoughts about several sets and I think some are more obvious (and I have them because of that) but do we really know? If it were easy to just pick the next set that was going to triple in value, we wouldn't need others to give us advice.

 

I totally agree with the points, for me its just a different kind of investment. I see new sets as risk growth (still not huge risk with some sets) and retired sets (provided you get in at the right time) as more steady less-risk growth. Why? Because you take out the part where you have to guess which set is a winner.

 

For example, I have collected several 5887 Dino Defense sets for in the <$120 range. It just retired, has 58% CAGR and is still steadily growing month to month. I wont make out like a bandit, but there is a pretty good chance that set will hit over $200 next year. Just a different type of investment.

[kerrmando]

That is an absolutely fair point. I am not really encouraging others to invest. And I agree its a crap shoot at $150. I got in at $115. I look at it this way - This is a known quatitiy. People want it and it has grown. is it guaranteed? Not at all. But up until now it has a stellar performance in the secondary market. I got in well enough under the current price so that I should be able to get my money back away from something catastrophic.

 

Looking at how this set has grown, there isn't much chance it will continue at that pace. But some sets have done this and I felt like I would like to diversify and try it out to see what happens. If this does hit $250, I will be able to pull $100 out of my investment which isn't bad at all considering. Plus investing in already retired sets is somewhat more relaxing - they are gone (unless they are redone) so you don't have to guess what's happening.

 

 

I would agree with this except, do you know of any set that you can definitely say will triple in value? Just like you, I have some thoughts about several sets and I think some are more obvious (and I have them because of that) but do we really know? If it were easy to just pick the next set that was going to triple in value, we wouldn't need others to give us advice.

 

I totally agree with the points, for me its just a different kind of investment. I see new sets as risk growth (still not huge risk with some sets) and retired sets (provided you get in at the right time) as more steady less-risk growth. Why? Because you take out the part where you have to guess which set is a winner.

 

For example, I have collected several 5887 Dino Defense sets for in the <$120 range. It just retired, has 58% CAGR and is still steadily growing month to month. I wont make out like a bandit, but there is a pretty good chance that set will hit over $200 next year. Just a different type of investment.

I see where you are coming from but I agree more with the Dino buys than I do with this set. I'd say all the Marvel first run sets are very very very very safe bets, and lot's of the figures already are exclusive (variants) and the values on them will continue to go up. Heck we may never even see another Xmen set again...

 

Zombies is still a great investment, I just don't think it's the best. A better investment in my mind is buy 13 of the currently discounted Halloween accessories pack sets and watch them grow and triple your Zombie set profit margin wise.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I see where you are coming from but I agree more with the Dino buys than I do with this set. I'd say all the Marvel first run sets are very very very very safe bets, and lot's of the figures already are exclusive (variants) and the values on them will continue to go up. Heck we may never even see another Xmen set again...

 

Zombies is still a great investment, I just don't think it's the best. A better investment in my mind is buy 13 of the currently discounted Halloween accessories pack sets and watch them grow and triple your Zombie set profit margin wise.

 

I totally agree those are better investments. I have about 20 of the halloween packs .

 

I also have all those marvel sets. But there are unknowns there too - how do you know when they will retire? The contract runs until 2015 - if they last for 2 more years will your opinions change? I love the Hulk set, but I have seen them on shelves clearanced and not moving. And the wolverine set is great - but who is to say they don't come out with a whole line early next year?

 

Its just about me and the way I invest in things. Some people don't buy Google at 900$ even though they have grown 20% in the last year. They would rather buy low price stock. And I would too, but I don't mind taking a chance just in case the growth continues to repeat itself.

 

Zombies may stay right around $160 like Ed said. But it could also hit $250 or $300, no one really knows. So if those little sets all fail for some odd reason, or the investor problem is bigger than we thought, I have something else to hang my hat on.

 

I would say 10% of my investments go to sets like this - 90% the other way. So I definitely agree with your points.

[jaisonline]

I know this auction (ended 5 mins ago) wasn't an investor purchases.

Wow. Almost $150 for an open complete set.

I'm telling ya. This set still has growth left in it. Just wait until the next season of True Blood with those Vamp-Zombie hybrids. Ha

[wallwebber]

I have seen a couple of them end with damaged boxes

and sealed go for $120-130 within the past week. $200 by Halloween isnt out of the question.

[jaisonline]

We are now officially ready for a Zombie themed Halloween (and targeting a 100% return by Oct 2014). Grrrr.

Regarding eBay and Bricklink, sold sets looking good with the exception of a few nice $ sets. Surprisingly, Bricklink had the better deals. Usually sets are priced higher on there than eBay,

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_udlo=75&LH_Sold=1&_sacat=0&_from=R40&LH_Complete=1&_udhi=&_nkw=Lego+zombies+9465&_dcat=19011&Character%2520Family=%2521&rt=nc

http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=9465-1-&colorID=0&v=D&viewExclude=Y&cID=Y

[smuddger]

I missed the boat on this one and keep getting drawn back to it. What would you be willing to pay for it now and how much do you think it will get to

[Diabolos80]

I think it's done. $150 is probably the best you could ask from a set that size.