Recommended YouTube LEGO channels, blogs, websites, etc

[redcell]

9 hours ago, Darth_Raichu said:

He thought this was bad.  Wait till everyone in his Patreon dumps their inventory to Amazon

Not just that, but all of the other people who have been hoovering up sets after watching Youtube videos or joining the Facebook groups.  There is going to be a definite shift in the market over the next few years as this tide of new investors washes through.

[joneyyy1981]

10 hours ago, Shortbus311 said:

You could just ask him... he has been a long time member here, but he doesn't post too often anymore.

Theoretically, it could be the ultimate "zig zag" as well. Tell everyone on your Patreon and YouTube channel to buy one set while you yourself load up on completely different sets.

then why bother with it at all. these people must be making zero in youtube earnings.

[Pseudoty]

 

3 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

then why bother with it at all. these people must be making zero in youtube earnings.

Not regarding Randy Savage, but Emma, Lego had a special event in Paris this weekend and they paid for her to attend. Not bad for someone who just started with Lego and YouTube 2 years ago. She is not for me and most of her videos made me cringe so I unsubscribed but amazing to see how much progress she made from her first video.

 

 

[exciter1]

8 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

 

Not regarding Randy Savage, but Emma, Lego had a special event in Paris this weekend and they paid for her to attend. Not bad for someone who just started with Lego and YouTube 2 years ago. She is not for me and most of her videos made me cringe so I unsubscribed but amazing to see how much progress she made from her first video.

 

 

I watched a couple of hers recently, still cringe.

[Bricklectic]

props for reporting on the declining market. but its ppl like him that are a primary cause. I don't get how the 20k (?) he makes on his patreon group outweighs the loss he causes himself on lego sales.

1 minute ago, exciter1 said:

I watched a couple of hers recently, still cringe.

 

[redcell]

10 hours ago, Bricklectic said:

props for reporting on the declining market. but its ppl like him that are a primary cause. I don't get how the 20k (?) he makes on his patreon group outweighs the loss he causes himself on lego sales.

 

Some lessons are harder learned than others.

[carini26]

4 hours ago, redcell said:

Not just that, but all of the other people who have been hoovering up sets after watching Youtube videos or joining the Facebook groups.  There is going to be a definite shift in the market over the next few years as this tide of new investors washes through.

I've become less concerned over new investors.  Feel like seller counts can sometimes be deceptive between the dropshippers and newbies with 1-2 sets for some of these SKUs.

Instead, I've diverted most of my attention focusing on 10-15 sellers dropping FTLs of SKUs.  These guys park 200-2500+ copies, set the price (wall), and then it inevitably becomes a sad race between new investors, FBMers, and even established FBA sellers to see how much margin they're willing to sacrifice.

I'd love to see the Q4 storage fees for some of those 10-15.  To me, these folks are a much more disruptive force influencing Mr. Market.  I could be wrong, but I don't remember them dropping this much stock pre-COVID.

 

[redcell]

58 minutes ago, carini26 said:

I've become less concerned over new investors.  Feel like seller counts can sometimes be deceptive between the dropshippers and newbies with 1-2 sets for some of these SKUs.

Instead, I've diverted most of my attention focusing on 10-15 sellers dropping FTLs of SKUs.  These guys park 200-2500+ copies, set the price (wall), and then it inevitably becomes a sad race between new investors, FBMers, and even established FBA sellers to see how much margin they're willing to sacrifice.

I'd love to see the Q4 storage fees for some of those 10-15.  To me, these folks are a much more disruptive force influencing Mr. Market.  I could be wrong, but I don't remember them dropping this much stock pre-COVID.

 

That's definitely a fair point.  The newbies definitely don't create as much price pressure as the big sellers, but it all aggregates to the overall downward trend on prices.  The biggest problem that I see coming from the increasing number of sellers is that there is a lot more price competition throughout the year, which generally holds down the price of the retired sets so that they are not as well poised to jump in price as the number of sellers thins out in Q4.  Not that long ago, it was not uncommon to see the price of a retired set increase by 40%-50% between September and early-December.  That's not so common these days.  It has become harder to make money reselling over the last two years.  I have a lot more sets this year that retired last year and haven't really increased much since than I have had in prior years.    

[joneyyy1981]

20 minutes ago, redcell said:

That's definitely a fair point.  The newbies definitely don't create as much price pressure as the big sellers, but it all aggregates to the overall downward trend on prices.  The biggest problem that I see coming from the increasing number of sellers is that there is a lot more price competition throughout the year, which generally holds down the price of the retired sets so that they are not as well poised to jump in price as the number of sellers thins out in Q4.  Not that long ago, it was not uncommon to see the price of a retired set increase by 40%-50% between September and early-December.  That's not so common these days.  It has become harder to make money reselling over the last two years.  I have a lot more sets this year that retired last year and haven't really increased much since than I have had in prior years.    

bang on. uk is absolutley flooded with resellers now.i find it harder and harder to pick winners every year as everything is hoarded to death over here with minimal discounts. i could build a house 21320.

i cry every time one of these youtube chanels tells people to invest in a set i been hoarding for 2 years already 😀

Edited October 31, 2022 by joneyyy1981

[Bricklectic]

yes basically, when you have another 10k resellers join the party, and all the gurus point them to speed champions, HP, ideas, and minecraft, almost every single set will be flooded with resellers. combine that with ever increasing amounts of lego sets to choose from, oncoming recession, and the increase of the aforementioned whales that drop 1k of sets on amazon at relatively low prices, it's really close to game over. 

The new model must be finding angles and clearances. I see all the time posts of walmart runs and the like and while I enjoy and tip my hat to those who can do that, for me and probly many others, with a day job I must rely on online sourcing. In the past even 20% sales could be very profitable if you picked the "winners". Now I believe that is not enough. 30% is minimum for me to invest and ideally 40%. With angles such as not frequently discounted sets on the rare sale ala fossils last year on the 20% off sale for 2 days. 

And I do believe we will see clearances both from Lego and the usual retailers this year on a scale and magnitude not seen for 5+ years. This may be beneficial on the buy side but I think very damaging on the sell side. Hard to fork over 150% on retired sets when the new shiny ones are 40% off right  and left. 

Sorry for the pessimism folks but to me this is basic facts. I think I'm not even doing the 'crisis' full justice by any means.

[carini26]

10 minutes ago, redcell said:

That's definitely a fair point.  The newbies definitely don't create as much price pressure as the big sellers, but it all aggregates to the overall downward trend on prices.  The biggest problem that I see coming from the increasing number of sellers is that there is a lot more price competition throughout the year, which generally holds down the price of the retired sets so that they are not as well poised to jump in price as the number of sellers thins out in Q4.  Not that long ago, it was not uncommon to see the price of a retired set increase by 40%-50% between September and early-December.  That's not so common these days.  It has become harder to make money reselling over the last two years.  I have a lot more sets this year that retired last year and haven't really increased much since than I have had in prior years.    

I'd be curious, of the sets you mentioned that have not increased, who are the current sellers and how much stock do they have...

I also notice when these 10-15 drop FTLs, the seller count does begin to become bloated.  Other sellers aren't paying attention to these guys when they are creating new shipments.  The SKUs are still selling at same pace with little change in sales rank, but now there's large increase in overall quantity @ a less than great selling price...and pricing pressure ensues.  

Of the 2021 retirees I've tracked that are performing well, I've noticed very few if any have had 200+ copies drop at one time.  I am gambling at this point TP, TB, PFT, etc. have probably sent in their freights for the holiday season.  

 

[Stonebreaker]

On 9/9/2022 at 6:01 AM, Unionize Pokemart said:

He definitely counts GWP sales returns as part of the discounts he says he can get on sets. He has said so specifically when talking about how to get discounts on things like modulars. His claims of getting those discounts are counting money from sold GWPs, credit card cashback, VIP points, and all other forms of potential cashback(Honey, etc.) stacked together. 

 

Though that Stranger Things BH set being Lego exclusive means you can't buy them in bulk(limit 2 on SAH), and being that they are $20 ea. $40 is hardly netting you a particularly great GWP.

 

I mean if you could buy unlimited amounts and you bought say 8 of them for $160 and that qualified you for a good reselling GWP like Forestmen's Hideout($150 buy-in) that you sold for $40 after shipping and fees. That would be a 25% discount that you had to work for, then 5% VIP discount, maybe 3% from a good credit card cashback program. Still that's only in a world where you could actually buy in bulk which isn't real, which means you have to be buying other sets from SAH to hit a good GWP threshold, and anytime you are purchasing from SAH you have opportunity cost with regard to savings unless they are exclusives.

Over here at Germany you could order 5 pcs (no longer possible) and buy another small set to pass the Ray-threshold at double VIP and 6% cashback (and an additional 0.5% casback on credit card). You could rinse and repeat at the local LEGO shop once or twice a day (if you considered it worth the effort).

That said, 20% seems about right to me.

[redcell]

58 minutes ago, carini26 said:

I'd be curious, of the sets you mentioned that have not increased, who are the current sellers and how much stock do they have...

I also notice when these 10-15 drop FTLs, the seller count does begin to become bloated.  Other sellers aren't paying attention to these guys when they are creating new shipments.  The SKUs are still selling at same pace with little change in sales rank, but now there's large increase in overall quantity @ a less than great selling price...and pricing pressure ensues.  

Of the 2021 retirees I've tracked that are performing well, I've noticed very few if any have had 200+ copies drop at one time.  I am gambling at this point TP, TB, PFT, etc. have probably sent in their freights for the holiday season.  

 

That's an interesting question.  I don't spend a lot of time watching other sellers or their stock, but I went back and looked at a few of the sets I was thinking about and the the majority of the sellers on the lower end of the price spectrum had between 1-6 units.  It wasn't until you get to prices that are about 20% above MSRP that some sellers start having double or triple digits.

From my perspective, prices are held down more if there are more sellers even if the majority of those sellers only have a handful of units to sell.  When you're deep on a set, it's a lot easier to get sales without tanking the price because you can drop your price to get the buy box, grab some sales, and then pull your price back up without triggering a ton of other sellers to try and match your price.  Prices tend to spiral down when you've got a bunch of different sellers all fighting for the buy box because you get so many people crowded around a lower price that it rarely gets enough time to breathe and rise back up to a higher level.

Even if the big sellers have sent all of their stuff in, it may not be reflected on the listings yet.  I've sent about half of what I've got going and have the other half going out tomorrow, and almost none of it is in my active inventory yet.

 

[Bricklectic]

1 hour ago, carini26 said:

I'd be curious, of the sets you mentioned that have not increased, who are the current sellers and how much stock do they have...

 

 

Trick reveal.

What I've seen a few sellers do, is place a limit of 1. What that accomplishes is make it appear to other sellers as if there is 1 left for the seller, (which competitors will wait out typically and not PM) while they may have hundreds. AFAIK, There is no way to check amounts a seller has even with keepa if they place an order limit, similar to amazon (where its impossible to know how much they have left when there is a limit order of less than 30)

So aside from the trackable whales, there are also the 'stealth' whales.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Bricklectic

[landphieran]

49 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

yes basically, when you have another 10k resellers join the party, and all the gurus point them to speed champions, HP, ideas, and minecraft, almost every single set will be flooded with resellers. combine that with ever increasing amounts of lego sets to choose from, oncoming recession, and the increase of the aforementioned whales that drop 1k of sets on amazon at relatively low prices, it's really close to game over. 

Lol, I've been pretty deep on friends sets the past few years and they aren't better. My peanut brain thought "cute animals" "looks fun"... but every new wave is the same sooo... The guys video about "moving to friends sets" is just ramblings of him trying to chase a unicorn. I'd also venture to guess he's trying to dissuade people from targeting the things he wants to target. He's delusional to think ender dragon should go for 45 right now. IMO: That set is going to drop to mid to low 30's for the next month. It may recover to 45-50.

Unless you are a god at picking "unicorn sets" (sets that appreciate 100% in 1 year), willing to wait 3+ years, or are doing insanely high volume (20k+ items); I don't see this as a profitable venture for most moving forward.

[keymomachine]

11 minutes ago, landphieran said:

ramblings of him trying to chase a unicorn.

[redcell]

20 minutes ago, landphieran said:

Lol, I've been pretty deep on friends sets the past few years and they aren't better. My peanut brain thought "cute animals" "looks fun"... but every new wave is the same sooo... The guys video about "moving to friends sets" is just ramblings of him trying to chase a unicorn. I'd also venture to guess he's trying to dissuade people from targeting the things he wants to target. He's delusional to think ender dragon should go for 45 right now. IMO: That set is going to drop to mid to low 30's for the next month. It may recover to 45-50.

Unless you are a god at picking "unicorn sets" (sets that appreciate 100% in 1 year), willing to wait 3+ years, or are doing insanely high volume (20k+ items); I don't see this as a profitable venture for most moving forward.

I agree on Ender Dragon.  I've got around 200 going in.  It's at $37.50 now with over 130 sellers on the listing.  I'm thinking that I'll probably sell through between $30-$33 with some maybe dipping into the high $20s.  I'd certainly prefer mid-$40s, but I can live with low-$30s.    

[exciter1]

6 minutes ago, redcell said:

I agree on Ender Dragon.  I've got around 200 going in.  It's at $37.50 now with over 130 sellers on the listing.  I'm thinking that I'll probably sell through between $30-$33 with some maybe dipping into the high $20s.  I'd certainly prefer mid-$40s, but I can live with low-$30s.    

Glad I shifted gears toward 71718 - Wu's Battle Dragon

[redcell]

11 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Glad I shifted gears toward 71718 - Wu's Battle Dragon

No competition from me on those this year.  I sold through last year...it's great when the price ripens within 6 months of retirement.  I was hoping for something similar on Fire Dragon Attack, but no luck so far.

[Pseudoty]

On 10/31/2022 at 11:42 AM, Pseudoty said:

 

Not regarding Randy Savage, but Emma, Lego had a special event in Paris this weekend and they paid for her to attend. Not bad for someone who just started with Lego and YouTube 2 years ago. She is not for me and most of her videos made me cringe so I unsubscribed but amazing to see how much progress she made from her first video.

 

 

This girl is killing it on the Lego gravy train. Went from a paid trip to Paris to 2 Weeks in LA. 
 

 

[fuzzy_bricks]

On 11/11/2022 at 2:22 PM, Pseudoty said:

This girl is killing it on the Lego gravy train. Went from a paid trip to Paris to 2 Weeks in LA.

I just remember how sad it was that she couldn't film in the Lego store anymore.  🙄

Glad it all worked out for her. 

[BrickLegacy]

I just remember how sad it was that she couldn't film in the Lego store anymore. 
Glad it all worked out for her. 

She quit her data analytics job to pursue this whole influencer gig… curious to see how far she can take it. Pretty awesome to see someone change careers and be successful thanks to LEGO and the internet.

A career in analytics vs. influencer/entertainer is very different. Hopefully she doesn’t burnout.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cladner]

17 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

She quit her data analytics job to pursue this whole influencer gig… curious to see how far she can take it. Pretty awesome to see someone change careers and be successful thanks to LEGO and the internet.

A career in analytics vs. influencer/entertainer is very different. Hopefully she doesn’t burnout.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lol mos def i'm guessing onlyfans for the big $.  smh bhad bhabie already proved staying power, big money and academic respect for doing nothing quite well.

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11390579/Bhad-Bhabie-gives-speech-Oxford-Union.html

cash me outside .

 

[Bold-Arrow]

1 hour ago, cladner said:

lol mos def i'm guessing onlyfans for the big $.  smh bhad bhabie already proved staying power, big money and academic respect for doing nothing quite well.

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11390579/Bhad-Bhabie-gives-speech-Oxford-Union.html

cash me outside .

 

I'm too old to understand or care for any of this .

 

[TheOrcKing]

On 11/13/2022 at 11:35 AM, Bold-Arrow said:

I'm too old to understand or care for any of this .

 

Me just trying to read her name.