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6860 Batcave - How long left?


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The only sets being retired in June are the. 1- 6858 Catwoman's City Chase 2- 6865 Captain America's Avenging Cycle Everything else is for all of 2013 3-Do not no of dates for any Exclusives like The Funhouse, but knowing Toys R US I am sure they will go the 3 year Marvel License deal.

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The only sets being retired in June are the.

1- 6858 Catwoman's City Chase

2- 6865 Captain America's Avenging Cycle

Everything else is for all of 2013

3-Do not know of dates for any Exclusives like The Funhouse, but knowing Toys R US I am sure they will go the 3 year Marvel License deal.

Wonder why just those two....

Guess I should pick up a couple more of the Avenging Cycle set then.

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Yeah it always seems like the smaller sets in each theme go EOL first for some reason, not sure why exactly?

I think there are small sets that are quickly gone but there are also small sets that seem to take a long time to go away.

I think Lego does production runs and conservatively estimates how many they will sell. As an example a marketing guy tells the product manager he will sell 10,000 of the little set (more affordable) and 1,000 of the big set, the product manager decides to cut back production by 10% to make sure that all get sold. That means 9,000 of the little set get made and 900 of the big set. This leaves 1,000 buyers without the little set and 100 buyers without the bigger set. (I just used easy numbers, I'm sure actual production runs are much different)

But, people are less price sensitive on small sets and will purchase them, sometimes on impulse, without any discount which makes marketing projections more difficult. In addition, being 5% off on projecting sales for a small set is much more impactful in the number of sets made than 5% off on a large set.

Lego buyers begin to know that small sets vanish quickly, especially those with unique or desirable minifigures like 76006 Iron Man Extremis Sea Port Battle which has three desirable minifigs and is only $20 (true it is new, so the minifigs are going for crazy prices - $15 to $25 each; but it will continue to be a valuable small set even when supply catches up with demand). So, when buyers see them at retail they buy them up which reinforces the smaller sets going EOL first.

On the other hand there are sets like the 9488 Elite Clone Trooper and Commando Droid B which seems like it has been discounted for months and is still found everywhere!

The marketing guy (or anyone) can never really predict the future, the best he can hope for is his average is close. He probably under predicts popular sets and over predicts unpopular sets and can't really tell which is which before he sees actual sales.

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I think there are small sets that are quickly gone but there are also small sets that seem to take a long time to go away.

I think Lego does production runs and conservatively estimates how many they will sell. As an example a marketing guy tells the product manager he will sell 10,000 of the little set (more affordable) and 1,000 of the big set, the product manager decides to cut back production by 10% to make sure that all get sold. That means 9,000 of the little set get made and 900 of the big set. This leaves 1,000 buyers without the little set and 100 buyers without the bigger set. (I just used easy numbers, I'm sure actual production runs are much different)

But, people are less price sensitive on small sets and will purchase them, sometimes on impulse, without any discount which makes marketing projections more difficult. In addition, being 5% off on projecting sales for a small set is much more impactful in the number of sets made than 5% off on a large set.

Lego buyers begin to know that small sets vanish quickly, especially those with unique or desirable minifigures like 76006 Iron Man Extremis Sea Port Battle which has three desirable minifigs and is only $20 (true it is new, so the minifigs are going for crazy prices - $15 to $25 each; but it will continue to be a valuable small set even when supply catches up with demand). So, when buyers see them at retail they buy them up which reinforces the smaller sets going EOL first.

On the other hand there are sets like the 9488 Elite Clone Trooper and Commando Droid B which seems like it has been discounted for months and is still found everywhere!

The marketing guy (or anyone) can never really predict the future, the best he can hope for is his average is close. He probably under predicts popular sets and over predicts unpopular sets and can't really tell which is which before he sees actual sales.

These are really great points!!

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