Prediction of worth for Series 10 "Mr. Gold"

[kerrmando]

I'm guessing they will never all be found, and I'm putting a final value at them as 425-475

[MinifiguresPlus]

Just received word from the carrier that our cases will arrive this weekend! As a small business, I have to admit half the fun is seeing a semi pull up to your front door and begin unloading packages from the skids. By the way, although all 300 boxes sold out, we will have another 100 closer to the end of the month. We just received word that we may be able to order some more, but it is my assumption that after these next 100 we will have to raise the price again. Nearly all of our contacts have run out already. The distributor states that LEGO estimated "5-6 Mr. gold" in the 300 cases ordered. He also notes that they had estimated LEGO produced over 15,000,000 minifigures, so he does not see how these figures are correct. Nonetheless, 5-6 is the estimate from LEGO. Good luck to those of you who have ordered!

[Huskers1236]

By my math, that comes to 1 Mr. Gold in every 50 60ct case, so their math matches mine. 15,000,000 / 60 figures per box = 250,000 60ct boxes / 5000 Mr. Gold = 1/50 chance

[TheOrcKing]

By my math, that comes to 1 Mr. Gold in every 50 60ct case, so their math matches mine.

15,000,000 / 60 figures per box = 250,000 60ct boxes

/ 5000 Mr. Gold = 1/50 chance

Those odds sound favorable but I wonder if the smaller boxes of 30 factor in at all. :-/

Anyway, my earlier statement seems like it will be true by the end of tonight; 192 Mr Golds have been found! Just a few more til 200.

[Huskers1236]

Those odds sound favorable but I wonder if the smaller boxes of 30 factor in at all. :-/

Anyway, my earlier statement seems like it will be true by the end of tonight; 192 Mr Golds have been found! Just a few more til 200.

It was easier to just factor boxes of 60:P

I have no idea what the percentage is for each size box. I've never even seen a 30 count box. If they are produced equally, you'd have:

15,000,000 / 45 figures per box (60 + 30 / 2) = 333,333 boxes

/ 5000 Mr. Gold = 1 in 66.66 box chance. Probably somewhere in between.

[TheOrcKing]

I've only seen the 30's at Five Below. I'm guessing every other retailer just buys the normal 60 but I haven't seen a box in person myself.

[Anakinisvader]

I made one of those with silver spray paint. ;-)

[comicblast]

Those odds sound favorable but I wonder if the smaller boxes of 30 factor in at all. :-/

Anyway, my earlier statement seems like it will be true by the end of tonight; 192 Mr Golds have been found! Just a few more til 200.

It was easier to just factor boxes of 60:P

I have no idea what the percentage is for each size box. I've never even seen a 30 count box. If they are produced equally, you'd have:

15,000,000 / 45 figures per box (60 + 30 / 2) = 333,333 boxes

/ 5000 Mr. Gold = 1 in 66.66 box chance. Probably somewhere in between.

I tried doing some math on this too for my blog and I figured out through some number crunching that you have a 13% chance of finding Mr. Gold. I thought these were pretty high numbers until I found that there is a 0.2% of finding a Mr. Gold minifigure by picking him up loose.

Read more here.

[Mos_Eisley]

Is that your blog? I'm just asking because those figures don't really make any sense because there isn't a number in there that's actually based on any known figure. The final percentage could be off by any number in either direction. I guess I just don't understand the purpose of coming up with odds that are essentially just pulled out of the sky.

[comicblast]

Is that your blog? I'm just asking because those figures don't really make any sense because there isn't a number in there that's actually based on any known figure. The final percentage could be off by any number in either direction. I guess I just don't understand the purpose of coming up with odds that are essentially just pulled out of the sky.

Yes, just like many aspects of investing, this is pure speculation. I did do a little bit of research on this first, but really these are just guesses on the odds, since the actual odds are behind closed doors within the Lego company. I guess the purpose was to try to give an idea to people of their odds. I know it isn't exact and could be off by a lot.

[kerrmando]

I actually think I am going to donate enough for a silver.. I've run a bullion store for years so this is kinda something I have to have.

[MinifiguresPlus]

By my math, that comes to 1 Mr. Gold in every 50 60ct case, so their math matches mine.

15,000,000 / 60 figures per box = 250,000 60ct boxes

/ 5000 Mr. Gold = 1/50 chance

Thanks for doing the math. It is generally my strong point but for some reason I had entirely forgotten to divide them into boxes of 60 first.

[TheOrcKing]

Anyway, my earlier statement seems like it will be true by the end of tonight; 192 Mr Golds have been found! Just a few more til 200.

My liitle prediction did come true it seems. It is Friday and 208 Mr Golds have already been found!

Jeeze, and we are barely through the second week of May.

[Grolim]

I really thought they'd be found at a bit faster rate. How long is a series around for? I don't see much series 9 around here any more so that lasted what... 4 months? If series 10 lasts 4 months, then that should be 1250 Golds per month, or around 300 per week average. Meaning we should have maybe around 420 by now? In fact I would think way more, as a high proportion of sales and people smooshing all the shelf stock in the first few days. Maybe we have had something like 1000 found and only 1 in 5 are being entered into the website? Interesting stuff, but all pure speculation :-)

[stephen_rockefeller]

I have 2 of them........one in each of my sealed cases ;)

[JoshTX]

Maybe we have had something like 1000 found and only 1 in 5 are being entered into the website? Interesting stuff, but all pure speculation :-)

That's kind of what I was thinking. Maybe not 1000 found, but much more than what has been reported. I hear that a lot of the EBay flippers aren't registering them because they are leaving the opportunity to do that to the buyers. This makes the Mr. Gold location dispersement inaccurate, but I guess they want the buyer to feel special by letting them register it themselves.

[TheOrcKing]

I really thought they'd be found at a bit faster rate. How long is a series around for? I don't see much series 9 around here any more so that lasted what... 4 months? If series 10 lasts 4 months, then that should be 1250 Golds per month, or around 300 per week average. Meaning we should have maybe around 420 by now? In fact I would think way more, as a high proportion of sales and people smooshing all the shelf stock in the first few days.

Maybe we have had something like 1000 found and only 1 in 5 are being entered into the website? Interesting stuff, but all pure speculation :-)

Each Series typically lasts about four months before the next comes out onto the scene. Every year goes like:

1st Series: January-April

2nd Series: May-August

3rd Series: September-December

There will be scragglers left in some stores past the usual time on shelves but this seems to be the generic pattern of production for the Minifigures line.

I'm curious how high the count will be by the end of this month and sure that the actual number found is higher to a degree due to not everyone registering. Some people may be debating whether to sell, hold, or keep for their own collection. Just checked and the number is now at 230 Mr Golds found.

[stephen_rockefeller]

An 11 year old in Scotland found a Mr. Gold! I am happy for him!! Take that you greedy AFOLs ;)

[Diabolos80]

These finally showed up on my side of Houston, at HEB no less. I've seen the dot code for mr gold, and my heart jumped when i found the bag: one dot on the right, two dots at a slant on the left. But when i smooshed it i didnt feel a tophat or cane. Then I found two more bags with the same dots. Turns out they were roman commanders. When i got home i double checked, and it looks like the roman commander dot code is identical to mr gold. Or i'm doing it wrong. If someone here has access to both, could you double-check?

[agp548]

These finally showed up on my side of Houston, at HEB no less. I've seen the dot code for mr gold, and my heart jumped when i found the bag: one dot on the right, two dots at a slant on the left. But when i smooshed it i didnt feel a tophat or cane. Then I found two more bags with the same dots. Turns out they were roman commanders. When i got home i double checked, and it looks like the roman commander dot code is identical to mr gold. Or i'm doing it wrong. If someone here has access to both, could you double-check?

Dot codes are not the most reliable way to find certain figures, the only sure way is to feel for them.

[Grolim]

I think weighing them would be faster and more accurate, but need a list of weights before starting a series, which when you do so early after release isn't really available. My digits are too sausage like to be 100% on the feel method :-)

[stephen_rockefeller]

My digits are too sausage like to be 100% on the feel method :-)

This struck me funny!!

[rcdb1984]

Thats really funny. I bought a case, yet my brother decided to have my mom by 10 MF's randomly for him. (of corse no gold will be in there they were sitting for a big) but my brother and mom had a picture of all the MF's next to them, went home and tried to guess what was inside. they took their time and got 1 right LOL

[JoshTX]

These finally showed up on my side of Houston, at HEB no less. I've seen the dot code for mr gold, and my heart jumped when i found the bag: one dot on the right, two dots at a slant on the left. But when i smooshed it i didnt feel a tophat or cane. Then I found two more bags with the same dots. Turns out they were roman commanders. When i got home i double checked, and it looks like the roman commander dot code is identical to mr gold. Or i'm doing it wrong. If someone here has access to both, could you double-check?

Minifigures in HEB, ha ha. I've never seen them in any HEB around here, were they in the toy aisle or up near the registers?

[Diabolos80]

Minifigures in HEB, ha ha. I've never seen them in any HEB around here, were they in the toy aisle or up near the registers?

It's a swank heb with 2 long toy aisles. All my best non lego finds are there because nobody buys toys at heb lol. Too bad they dont clearance, theyve still got dino sets on the shelves. I said, clearance these for me, and you wont need to dust them off anymore. They said no :)