Prediction of worth for Series 10 "Mr. Gold"

[redeemed763]

For me, the problem for is that it is a lot of capital to throw down when I have no idea if I will actually get a Mr Gold. It sounds like TLG is trying to make sure they are distributed pretty well so they aren't all going to go to one seller. If I went and bought 5 cases there, I very possibly may not acquire a single one, and then I have $850 that is invested in something I don't normally invest in, tiny polybags. Selling those someday means a lot of transactions and I have no idea what the returns will be. Furthermore, what if I actually get Mr Gold and by the time I have sifted through those 300 bags, he is only going for $200, then I have all that money invested in CFM's that I would have much rather thrown at large sets.

[Diabolos80]

It's ironic that some of you guys crying foul over this are the same people who advocated buying up all the packs you can find, smooshing at home, then returning the ones you don't want. Either way, the figures I might have bought won't be available. Personally, I think it's more fun to buy whichever packs I randomly grab. I always get back my money on eBay for the ones I don't keep. As for Mr. Gold, it's a cheap Made-in-China figure, and I don't invest in cheap. If I find one, its blemished little face will sit in my collection, equal to all the others.

[Sauromosis]

For me, the problem for is that it is a lot of capital to throw down when I have no idea if I will actually get a Mr Gold. It sounds like TLG is trying to make sure they are distributed pretty well so they aren't all going to go to one seller. If I went and bought 5 cases there, I very possibly may not acquire a single one, and then I have $850 that is invested in something I don't normally invest in, tiny polybags. Selling those someday means a lot of transactions and I have no idea what the returns will be. Furthermore, what if I actually get Mr Gold and by the time I have sifted through those 300 bags, he is only going for $200, then I have all that money invested in CFM's that I would have much rather thrown at large sets.

I think Ed is advocating never opening the box and then selling.

I'm close Ed, very convincing.

Having "smooshed" once (with no success), I'm done. I felt like a manager was going to tap me on the shoulder any second. Dirty business.

The kid argument I kindof buy but I know when I was young in the 80's I would have figured out a way to get a set I wanted, maybe calling my relatives in different states.

[emes]

How about sell three weeks after it goes EOL for $350? This is a short term flip. Easy money unless LEGO releases more or makes up a story that they are all accounted for. This is money in the bank. Smart investors are hoarding these cases. I better just shut my mouth now and let everyone waste their time in Target and TRU. ;-)

Also a possibility (although very unlikely), is that there's significant outrage about retail store employees (whether TRU, Target, Wal-Mart, etc..) sorting through to find all of the Mr. Gold's, causing LEGO to pull all of Series 10 from the shelves early. If you own a sealed box and this happens it will be worth way more than $350. It's unlikely but worth the risk, because as Ed says, the value of a sealed box will ultimately exceed the $170 base price regardless.

I know it's a longshot, but this is exactly the kind of thing that companies do and then when it doesn't work out they end up pulling the plug. For example, see: http://www.boston.com/news/globe/city_region/breaking_news/2007/02/dr_peppers_gold_1.html

[emes]

I think Ed is advocating never opening the box and then selling.

I'm close Ed, very convincing.

Having "smooshed" once (with no success), I'm done. I felt like a manager was going to tap me on the shoulder any second. Dirty business.

The kid argument I kindof buy but I know when I was young in the 80's I would have figured out a way to get a set I wanted, maybe calling my relatives in different states.

That's how I see it as well. You are selling someone else the chance of finding Mr. Gold, not opening the box yourself. Think of it as buying one big $170 set.

[@rtisan]

I agree with the sealed box investment take on this. It`s like hockey cards (I used to collect them; yes it`s a bad comparison); sealed packs from the 70`s or 80`s are worth money because you could potentially get a rookie card of a star player and sell for big bucks. I felt through 5 cases worth of Series 10 last week, but of that, 3 of the boxes were still factory sealed on the shelf. Naturally I open them and inspected. Sealed boxes are where the money is at, while sealed packs in this case obviously aren`t. I don`t know, I bought my set and stocked up on a few select figs. Never expected to get a Mr. Gold, and if I do stumble across one it will be by sheer chance. All is good!

This isn't anything new with store employees. It happens all the time with Hot Wheels, Star Wars figures (or any other action figure) and such. The good ones almost never hit the retail shelves because an employee gets them first. I really don't think them employee is to blame. I'd probably do the same. Everyone is out to make a buck on things in this economy. Heck I even knew a Store Manager for Kay Bee toys that used to get all the good stuff before it hit the sales floor. Some people feel this is wrong or immoral or unethical but opinions are like bellybuttons... everybody has one and no matter how much people cry foul, this is going to continue whether we like it or not.

My take on this is, if you want a piece of the action, get a job as a store manager! Theft is wrong, so is feeling through bags and falsely advertising like I mentioned in my last post, but there is little wrong with employees buying items before sale. They are in the right place at the right time, I`d likely do the same thing. Their employer (the large corporation) doesn`t care, because they made the sales at the price listed, so everyone is happy.

[stackables]

I still think the golden ticket idea was the way to go. This would even prevent a lot of smooshing. Instead of the pamphlet that comes in each pack, Lego could have inserted the ticket the exact same size. Everyone would have to open the packs to see if they got the voucher.

[Blackjack]

I still think the golden ticket idea was the way to go. This would even prevent a lot of smooshing. Instead of the pamphlet that comes in each pack, Lego could have inserted the ticket the exact same size. Everyone would have to open the packs to see if they got the voucher.

Good point.

[Ed Mack]

I think Ed is advocating never opening the box and then selling.

I'm close Ed, very convincing.

Having "smooshed" once (with no success), I'm done. I felt like a manager was going to tap me on the shoulder any second. Dirty business.

The kid argument I kindof buy but I know when I was young in the 80's I would have figured out a way to get a set I wanted, maybe calling my relatives in different states.

That's how I see it as well. You are selling someone else the chance of finding Mr. Gold, not opening the box yourself.

As my 3.5 year old son, Max, says.....TAAAADAAAAAAAAAA!!! Give this man a cookie. I could care less about finding a MR. GOLD. It's the possibility of finding a MR. GOLD and marketing that to potential buyers which is the money maker to me.

[emes]

I entirely disagree... I'm paying money for these sets. If I buy a car, drive it for a year and sell it, that is my choice, I paid for it.

People who smoosh haven't paid a single cent to try and find the best ones. It's like living next to a car dealer and taking a new car for a "test drive" to the grocery story each time whenever you need milk.

And those who buy a case only to keep the ones they want don't count because they are getting their money back. That's like buying a random pack of 12 donuts, eating the 4 chocolate ones and returning the other 8 because you didn't like them.

Besides, it's not the kids parting with their hard earned money, it's the adults.

He's not saying it's his opinion, he's saying that people have that opinion. Guess what, they do.

Also, I think there are probably quite a few members here who smoosh minifigs of all series so that they can find the ones they want.

[emes]

That's how I see it as well. You are selling someone else the chance of finding Mr. Gold, not opening the box yourself.

As my 3.5 year old son, Max, says.....TAAAADAAAAAAAAAA!!! Give this man a cookie. I could care less about finding a MR. GOLD. It's the possibility of finding a MR. GOLD and marketing that to potential buyers which is the money maker to me.

I wish I could have a cookie right now. I'm sitting in the Philadelphia airport waiting for my flight and trying to pay attention to my computer so I don't have to look at this butterface sitting across from me.

It's like a train-wreck though, hard to look away....

Back to the topic, this has all the makings of a highly profitable winner if people play it right...

[gregpj]

I entirely disagree... I'm paying money for these sets. If I buy a car, drive it for a year and sell it, that is my choice, I paid for it.

People who smoosh haven't paid a single cent to try and find the best ones. It's like living next to a car dealer and taking a new car for a "test drive" to the grocery story each time whenever you need milk.

And those who buy a case only to keep the ones they want don't count because they are getting their money back. That's like buying a random pack of 12 donuts, eating the 4 chocolate ones and returning the other 8 because you didn't like them.

Besides, it's not the kids parting with their hard earned money, it's the adults.

He's not saying it's his opinion, he's saying that people have that opinion. Guess what, they do.

Also, I think there are probably quite a few members here who smoosh minifigs of all series so that they can find the ones they want.

True, he didn't say it was his opinion and I imagine some do think it.. but I disagree. If I pay for something, it's my right to hold onto it. People who smoosh and smoosh and smoosh may not be doing anything illegal but it is downright unethical.

If we want minifigs for our collection and we can't get them by buying random polybags, I buy them off Bricklink or ebay. Worth every cent of my time.

[stephen_rockefeller]

You are kidding yourself if you believe a site like this and people like us are having no impact on the overall market. Lego will only manufacture a certain amount of sets. There are kids out there not getting sets because we all have them sitting in closets and attics. As soon as people thought Jabba's Palace was going EOL really fast they bought all of them from Amazon. You don't think there were parents looking for those sets and couldn't get them for a period of time? Again I am not saying we are doing anything wrong but the argument we are having no impact is simply incorrect. Look at this very scenario with this gold minifig. Everyone is trying to get as many as they can to turn a quick profit. You don't think some kid would be insanely happy if he just happened to find this for $3? We are buying them so that kid can't do that. How many people here would offer some kid $50 on the spot if they saw some kid leaving TRU with one today knowing they would make 10x that easy by just flipping it.

If someone approached my kid walking out of a store with a 50 dollar bill, he would wake up in the emergency room....I'm just saying!

[Sauromosis]

What's to stop Lego from taking this stance?: "We only shipped the first 2500 Mr. Gold. Now that we see this insane demand, we're going to quadruple the amount of minifigure boxes while sending the remaining 2500 Mr. Gold." Just playing devil's advocate.

[emes]

True, he didn't say it was his opinion and I imagine some do think it.. but I disagree. If I pay for something, it's my right to hold onto it. People who smoosh and smoosh and smoosh may not be doing anything illegal but it is downright unethical.

If we want minifigs for our collection and we can't get them by buying random polybags, I buy them off Bricklink or ebay. Worth every cent of my time.

I tend to agree with you...if I buy something I *should* be able to do whatever I please with it. But I know there's this sentiment out there. My wife has received messages from people on eBay complaining that she's selling eye shadow that originally retailed at $4.99 for $24.99 and how this is somehow "thievery". Those people immediately go on the blocked list just for being stupid. It's not like we somehow force people to buy things at the prices we pick....

I don't understand the "smooshing" thing either. Seems like a lot of time and effort for a very small return....

[Sauromosis]

P.S., this "chase" stuff killed other industries. I see why Lego is doing it but they better be careful with production.

[kerrmando]

They might have actually done that ^ We will probably never know. I'm trying to get as many sealed boxes of the first wave as possible though!

[Jackson]

You better get ready for the horror stories. If employees at any large box store have a clue about the potential value in a $3 small bag, you will be lucky to find anything of value in these sets. They will be stolen. They will be opened. Better off buying a SEALED CASE of 60 Collectible Series 10 Minifigures. At least you stand a chance of getting a complete collection.

How much does brickpicker.com make if someone buys a case through that link?

[kerrmando]

I feel like several of us have bought from that link already so I hope they make something!

[Jackson]

My wife has received messages from people on eBay complaining that she's selling eye shadow that originally retailed at $4.99 for $24.99 and how this is somehow "thievery".

I get these kinds of messages on eBay too. Do these people think they will guilt-trip me into lowering the price? They won't. I'm not selling necessities like food, water, shelter, medicine. I'm selling luxury items (toys, electronics). If a person doesn't like the price of an item, don't f**king buy it.

[Grolim]

I like the idea of buying sealed cases for investment to sell later giving people the chance to score a Gold. The things that have stopped me from doing so yet are: - I might be too tempted to check the box myself for a Gold. "What if there is one in there?" I'll be thinking, "maybe just a small peak". I think I could hold out though. - The seals on the case look very flimsy to me. How easy would it be to carefully open the seal and check each bag, then re-seal? This issue hits at two ends, first buying the set (have they opened it...?) and then when selling it would potential customers see that possibility as well and shy away from it. If some sort of controversy erupts around some Ebay seller doing this it'll spread through the market like wildfire. But getting a box you can always sell off the figs separately so you do have that hedge. I'm very 50/50 on this. Which tends to push me towards using my capital on other sets.

[Ed Mack]

How much does brickpicker.com make if someone buys a case through that link?

Pennies to a couple of dollars....maybe up to $10 or so if we can maximize all of their requirements. eBay has a complicated system which varies day to day, hour to hour.

Fear not...I won't get rich off of this listing and I don't know the seller. Whatever we get from it helps keep this site free and add new features and contests.

[Ed Mack]

What's to stop Lego from taking this stance?:

"We only shipped the first 2500 Mr. Gold. Now that we see this insane demand, we're going to quadruple the amount of minifigure boxes while sending the remaining 2500 Mr. Gold."

Just playing devil's advocate.

Nothing could stop them....but, that would change their whole philosophy and they know the value of "limited" and "collectible."

[Jackson]

Fear not...I won't get rich off of this listing and I don't know the seller. Whatever we get from it helps keep this site free and add new features and contests.

I wasn't judging, just curious. I am not the type of ignoramus who will say "that's unfair" or call someone greedy if he makes money. If you made billions from affiliate links and spent it on hos and yachts, more power to you.

[terrymc4677]

i am not into the collectable minifigs, and have no intention of getting involved with this nonsense, but my take on the employees at certain retail establishments having access to the cases and smooshing for mr gold before they hit the shelves is this. i view it as being the same as insider trading on the stock market, which is against the law. if a person or group of people have access to inside information regarding a stock, and they buy or sell based on that information with the intention of making a profit, that is extremely unethical. i was an assistant manager at a sams club for 11 years, and anything that was "street dated" (meaning it was in the building but could not be put out for sale to the general public until a certain date (usually dvds, cd's, books, and video games)), was kept in the back room in a locked storage area so that nobody, including the employees, could have access to it. reason being is if it was leaked to the public early the corporation could face serious fines and penalties. i don't know if these minifigs had a street date like other media does, but if it did and employees were in the back rooms smooshing and taking out the good figs before the general public had a fair chance at them then that is just bad business. at sams our employees had the same chance to buy a hot new release item as the general public, but only if they came in on the release date during normal business hours like everyone else. all of this hype is not good for lego in my opinion.